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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Application of Bayesian Networks to Recommendations in Business Process Modeling?</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Szymon Bobek</string-name>
          <email>s.bobek@agh.edu.pl</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Mateusz Baran</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Krzysztof Kluza</string-name>
          <email>kluza@agh.edu.pl</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Grzegorz J. Nalepa</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>AGH University of Science and Technology</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>al. A. Mickiewicza 30, 30-059 Krakow</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="PL">Poland</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>Formalized process models help to handle, design and store processes in a form understandable for the designers and users. Modeling of business processes is a complex task, which can be supported by recommendations. It is important, as designers prefer to receive and use suggestions during the modeling process. Recommendations make modeling faster and less error-prone because a set of good models is automatically used to help the designer. In this paper, we propose a method that uses Bayesian Networks for recommendation purposes in process modeling. To create such a network, we use configurable business processes that combine a set of reference models.</p>
      </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1 Introduction</title>
      <p>Business Processes (BP) in organizations are designed using visual representations and
stored as process models. This helps to manage process complexity, especially by using
human-understandable notations like Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN).
As process modeling by inexperienced users can be a difficult task due to complexity
of the problem as well as the richness of the BPMN language, suggestions during the
modeling would facilitate it significantly. Based on current progress or additional pieces
of information, a designer can be supported during the design of the model. Such an
assistance can provide autocompletion mechanisms with capabilities of choosing next
process fragments from suggested ones.</p>
      <p>There are number of challenges related to the delivery of such assistive mechanisms,
including: 1) a suitable repository of existing models that would allow for the training of
recommender module, 2) an appropriate machine learning model and learning method
for the recommendation, and 3) a feasible integration with the BP modeling on the level
of the BPMN representation.</p>
      <p>In our research we assume availability of a model repository that provides
consistency of models and detects their similarities for further reuse. In fact, such a repository
is being developed in the Prosecco project1. The objective of the project is to provide
tools supporting the management of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) by the
introduction of methods for declarative specification of business process models and their
? The paper is supported from the Prosecco project funded by NCBR.
1 See http://prosecco.agh.edu.pl
semantics. We are using the formalization of BP models with BPMN as well as
ontological modelling with RDF and OWL to capture the semantics of the models.</p>
      <p>In this paper we propose the application of Bayesian Networks to recommend
process fragments in BPs modeling. Such a method can help in speeding up modeling
process and producing models that are less error prone compared to these designed from
scratch. Finally, we support our approach on the use of a configurable process model
built on similarities of models of the same group. We propose a simple algorithm that
is based on the configurable process model. This supports the reuse of existing process
models, especially when a process repository is provided.</p>
      <p>The rest of this paper is organized as follows: In Section 2 we present a short
overview of the recommendation types and in Section 3 we describe the current state
of the art in this research area. Section 4 presents configurable process model that can
be used as an input for recommendation algorithm, while Section 5 describes
application of Bayesian Networks for such recommendation in process modeling. The paper is
summarized in Section 6.
2</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Recommendations Types in BP Modeling</title>
      <p>
        Recommendation methods in Business Process modeling can be classified as one of two
types: subject-based and position-based classification [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ], which are complementary as
they are suited for different purposes.
      </p>
      <p>In the first case, the suggestion itself is not directly dependent on the context it is
placed in. However, the recommendation algorithms may actually inspect the context to
deliver more accurate results. This classification focuses on the subject which is actually
suggested, such as:
– attachments to a process model (e.g. decision tables, links, service tasks,
subprocesses or call subprocesses),
– textual pieces of information (e.g. names of elements, guard conditions, etc.),
– structural fragments (single elements or structures of elements).</p>
      <p>Position-based classification focuses on the part of the model where the suggested
artifact is to be placed in the model; thus, we distinguish:
– forward completion – a part of the process is known and the further fragment of the
process is to be suggested,
– backward completion – a part of the process is known and the previous fragment of
the process is to be suggested,
– autocomplete – any part of the process is known and the rest of the process is to
be suggested (a number of items with no outgoing or incoming flows is selected –
missing flows will lead to or from the suggested structure).</p>
      <p>In this paper, we consider structural fragment recommendation approach that can
be used as completion in any of the abovementioned positions. In the following section,
we present related works in the BP recommendation area.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Related Works</title>
      <p>
        As empirical studies have proven that users prefer to receive and use suggestions
during modeling processes [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ], several approaches to recommendations in BP modeling
have been developed. They are based on different factors such as labels of elements,
current progress of modeling process, or additional pieces of information like process
descriptions or annotations.
      </p>
      <p>
        Among attachment recommendations, support with finding appropriate services was
proposed by Born et al. [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ] and Nguyen et al. [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ]. Such a recommendation mechanism
can take advantage of context specified by the process fragment [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ] or historical data [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ].
Approaches that recommend textual pieces of information, such as names of tasks, were
proposed by Leopold et al. [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ] and extended in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        In the case of structural recommendations, Kopp et al. [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ] showed how to
autocomplete BPMN fragments in order to enable its verification. Although this approach
does not require any additional information, it is very limited in the case of
recommendations. The more useful existing algorithms are based on graph grammars for process
models [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref9">9,10</xref>
        ], process descriptions [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
        ], automatic tagging mechanism [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12 ref2">12,2</xref>
        ],
annotations of process tasks [13] or context matching [14]. Case-based reasoning for
workflow adaptation was discussed in [15]. It allows for structural adaptations of workflow
instances at build time or at run time, and supports the designer in performing such
adaptations by an automated method based on the adaptation episodes from the past.
      </p>
      <p>In our research, we use Bayesian Networks for recommendation purposes. As such
a network is created based on a configurable Business Process, in the following section
we present a short overview of BP configuration.
4</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Configurable Processes</title>
      <p>BP configuration is a method allowing for expressing similarities between two or more
BP models. There are mechanisms for comparing processes and managing them in large
repositories [16,17], refactorization of such repositories [18], as well as automatic
methods for extracting cloned fragments in repositories of models [18,19].</p>
      <p>There are several methods of extraction of configurable processes. They are
focused on different goals. Analyzing a configurable Business Process reveals a high-level
workflow that might not be apparent when analyzing particular models. The structure
is partially lost in the process, so this gives no benefit for process recommendation. The
method of interest in this paper are models merged into configurable model [20]. They
allow the designer to see several processes as special cases of one configurable model.
The model emphasizes similarities preserving all the important details. There is an
active research field in the area of configurable Business Processes. In [21], Rosemann et
al. described an approach focused on hand-made diagrams for the purpose of reference
modeling. La Rosa et al. [22] extended it with objects and roles.</p>
      <p>Figure 1 shows an example of configuration of parts of BP models. First, four
similar processes are presented. They are composed of certain elements that are either
present or not. In Figure 1 there is a configurable process that generalizes all of them.
The numbers in square brackets indicate in which process a given element appears. If
an element does not appear, the control flow goes on to the next element. This is a
simplified approach in comparison to La Rosa’s [22] version. Nevertheless it is sufficiently
expressive in given case and more appropriate for later usage with Bayesian Network
that we will use. There is also a technique that enables process designer to specify more
than one variant of a task. The so-called variant-rich process models were explored in
PESOA project [23,24].</p>
      <p>Process 1</p>
      <p>For the purpose of evaluation of the method we use a case study of four BP (see
Figure 2). The processes describe the implementation of a development project in four
different SME. The project starts when appropriate decision is made in the company.
Initial preparations are made first, then the project is created and several
end-of-theprocess tasks are performed. The “Make settlements” task appears twice – in some
companies it appears later and in some earlier in the process but always exactly once. In
case of one company the “Perform tasks” task triggers an event at the end of each
milestone. Exactly the same steps are performed then as are after the project is completed,
so the flows actually merge.
5</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Bayesian Networks for Recommendation</title>
      <p>
        In this section we present our method that applies Bayesian Networks (BN) for
recommendation purposes in process modeling. Thus, the following subsections describe
BN representation, modeling and training issues. Then, the recommendation scenario
is presented with open issues discussion.
marPkeetrfaonrmalysis
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ]
      </p>
      <p>
        Divide the
project into
parts
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref4">1,4</xref>
        ]
Yes Parpepplaicraetitohne
      </p>
      <p>
        [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ]
Verify progress
      </p>
      <p>
        [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ]
proSjeencdtttohethe
client
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref2">1,2</xref>
        ]
Milestone
reached
      </p>
      <p>
        [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ]
Perform tasks
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref2 ref3 ref4">1,2,3,4</xref>
        ]
Bayesian Network [25] is an acyclic graph that represents dependencies between
random variables and provide graphical representation of the probabilistic model. This
representation serves as the basis for compactly encoding a complex probability
distribution over a high-dimensional space [26]. The most important advantage of Bayesian
Network models is that it is possible to directly exploit the graphical representation of
BP diagrams, which can be easily translated into such model. Another advantage is that
the output of a recommendation is a set of probabilities, which allows for ranking the
suggestion from the most probable to the least probable.
      </p>
      <p>B1</p>
      <p>B2
G1</p>
      <p>G2</p>
      <p>In Figure 3 a simple example of a BN is presented. In order to calculate the
probability of the value of the random variable B1, the equation 1 can be used. The G1 and
G2 can be denoted as BPMN gateways, and B1 and B2 as other BPMN blocks, like
Tasks or Events. Thus, having any of these blocks given, we can calculate a probability
of a particular block being a missing part.</p>
      <p>P (B1) = X X X P (G1)P (B1jG1)P (B2jG1)P (G2jB1; B2)</p>
      <p>G1 G2 B2
(1)
The following subsections provides the details how this can be achieved.
5.2</p>
      <sec id="sec-5-1">
        <title>Bayesian Network Modeling</title>
        <p>The transformation from a configurable model to a BN model is straightforward. Each
node in a configurable process has to be modeled as a random variable in BN. Therefore,
each node in a configurable process is translated into a node in the network. The flow
that is modeled by configurable process represent dependencies between nodes. These
dependencies also can be translated directly to the BN model. For instance, a BN that
defines dependencies between particular nodes of configurable process presented in
Figure 2 can be modeled using the BN representation presented in Figure 4.
The Bayesian Network presented in Figure 4 captures only dependencies that are
a direct consequence of the control flow in the process model. However, we can add
more semantics to the Bayesian Network, what would allow us to capture some
indirect dependencies that arise from the company characteristics that are not included in
configurable process. Such dependencies encoded into BN would allow for better
recommendation accuracy, preserving the BPMN grammar at the same time. An example
of such a dependency is presented in Figure 5. It encodes that the project size, type and
company size may influence other components presence or absence in the Bayesian
Network model.
There are several methods for training Bayesian Networks. The comprehensive list and
comparison of them can be found in [27]. For the purpose of this paper, we use the
Expectation Maximization algorithm to perform bayesian network training. The software
we used to model and train our network is called Samiam2. The important part of the
learning process is providing training data. In our case, the training data was a
configurable process serialized to a CSV file. Each column in the file represents a node in
configurable process, whereas each row represents a separate process model that was
used to create the former.
5.4</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-2">
        <title>Recommendation Scenario</title>
        <p>The trained Bayesian Network can be used to recommend to a user which elements of
the BPMN diagram should be included in the currently modeled process. Such
suggestions can be done in two ways, either by recommending a next possible element, or by
suggesting a group of elements presence of which is highly probable.</p>
        <p>In the case of a single element structural recommendation, we recommend the next
element in the currently modeled process. This situation is presented in Figure 6. The
red circled elements are the elements that a user has already included or excluded from
his or her process. The green blocks represent the confidence that the particular node
should be included into the diagram. As it can be noticed, it is not only possible to
recommend the further nodes, but also to autocomplete omitted elements (like the Refine
information about the project node from the Figure 6).
2 See: http://reasoning.cs.ucla.edu/samiam.</p>
        <p>Another, extended approach can focus not only on the structure of a process model
but rather on dependencies between its components. In such the approach, only the
elements that are highly probable to be present in the process, based on the already
added elements, would be recommended. This, however, requires from a designer of
the BN to capture all dependencies between BPMN nodes.
The proposed solution has still some unresolved challenges to face. The structural
recommendation assumes that a user builds a process model step by step, choosing a next
probable element of the learned model. The conformance checking issue arises at this
stage, since the BN model has to be compared to the BP model. This is easily
achievable when a user picks only the nodes from the learned model, however when he or
she enters some elements unseen in the learning phase, the conformance checking is
not a trivial task any more. Such a case is related with other issues. Once the Bayesian
Network model observes unseen configuration of random variables, it produces
probabilities very close or equal to zero. As a result, the recommendation process is stopped.
Currently, a Bayesian Network model is built manually based on a configurable process.
However, this task can be automated and it is considered as a future work.
6</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>Conclusion and future work</title>
      <p>This paper proposes an application of Bayesian Networks to recommendation purposes
in process modeling. Such a method can help in speeding up modeling process and
producing less error prone models than modeling from scratch. The algorithm is based
on the configurable process models.</p>
      <p>The proposed suggestion mechanism was tested on a configurable model, prepared
from four real-world processes. The processes were adapted to preserve anonymity and
highlight the similarities. In fact more detailed processes differ so much that typical
configuration mechanism would produce almost worthless results as most of the tasks
would not be matched between processes. This issue can be solved by using hierarchical
BP configuration [28].</p>
      <p>Our future work will focus on specifying recommendation approach for company
management systems in order to enhance modeling process and evaluation of the
selected recommendation methods. We plan to carry out a set of experiments aimed at
testing recommendation approaches on various model sets. We also plan to extend the
presented approach in order to use it in collaborative modeling environment [29].
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