<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Archiving and Interchange DTD v1.0 20120330//EN" "JATS-archivearticle1.dtd">
<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Probabilistic Thinking to Support Early Evaluation of System Quality</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Through Requirement Analysis</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Mohammad Rajabalinejad</string-name>
          <email>M.Rajabalinejad@utwente.nl</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Maarten G. Bonnema</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente 2522 LW Enschede</institution>
          ,
          <country country="NL">Netherlands</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>This paper focuses on coping with system quality in the early phases of design where there is lack of knowledge about a system, its functions or its architect. The paper encourages knowledge based evaluation of system quality and promotes probabilistic thinking. It states that probabilistic thinking facilitates communication between a system designer and other design stakeholders or specialists. It accommodates tolerance and flexibility in sharing opinions and embraces uncertain information. This uncertain information, however, is to be processed and combined. This study offers a basic framework to collect, process and combine uncertain information based on the probability theory. Our purpose is to offer a graphical tool used by a system designer, systems engineer or system architect for collecting information under uncertainty. An example shows the application of this method through a case study.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>system</kwd>
        <kwd>quality</kwd>
        <kwd>uncertainty</kwd>
        <kwd>design</kwd>
        <kwd>evaluation</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>Nomenclature
relative weight
a random number representing the system quality over the i-th requirement
a random number representing the system quality over the i-th requirement
according to the k-th stakeholder  expected value
relative weight of requirements
number of stakeholders
number of requirements
a random number representing the importance of the i-th requirement
a random number showing the opinion of k-th stakeholder over i-th requirement
a random number representing the importance of the k-th stakeholder
a random number showing the opinion of j-th stakeholder over k-th stakeholder
a random number representing the system quality
variance</p>
      <p>Introduction
To deliver a quality system, a system designer should first identify, clarify, and
document system requirements [1]. These tasks are performed in the earliest phase of a
project life cycle and in the presence of a high level of uncertainty [2]. These
requirements are not fixed and may change throughout the development stages [3]. On
the other hand, some requirements e.g. maximization of benefits are explicitly or
implicitly present in all design phases, and different terminology may be used for them.
For example, design objectives or concept drivers are commonly used in the concept
phase while the program of requirements or design criteria are more likely to be used
in the embodiment phase. It is important to note that the requirements keep the focus
of the design team on the most important design aspects or main needs and they
provide references for the evaluation of system quality.</p>
      <p>Therefore, system requirements have explicit roles through the design process. It is
mainly because of the presence of a systematic approach [4] in this process and also
because of the societal demands for meeting the standards [5] in engineered products.
These are reflected in tools, processes and standards. An example is the popular
method called the house of quality which relates user requirements to design
requirements in order to ensure quality end-products. To achieve quality systems,
designers need to define proper system requirements as early as possible [6] as they
help judging the relevance of new information.</p>
      <p>The evaluation of design alternatives are on the basis of these requirements. In
other words, every design alternative has to be able to address the initial requirements.
As a result, these requirements form criteria for evaluation of system quality. These
design criteria may change through the design process and may have different degrees
of importance. To assess system quality, a system designer has to rank them at the
early stages of the design process. Ranking methods is of great value in decision
models, and the use of multi criteria decision models (MCDM) typically involve
criteria ranking.
1.1</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Information elicitation</title>
      <p>To define system requirements, identification of stakeholders is one of the earliest
steps. A review research by Pacheco and Garcia [9] confirms that an incomplete set of
stakeholders may lead to incomplete requirements. A system designer has to pay
attention to the problems arising from the scope, understanding and validation of
requirements [10, 11] in the course of communication with stakeholders.</p>
      <p>Figure 1 presents the functional diagram for identification of stakeholders and
communication with them. It shows some new stakeholders may be realized through
the course of communication with already-known stakeholders. To document the
stakeholder’s needs and collected feedback , Salado and Nilchiani [12] suggest a set
of questions for discovering new stakeholders in order to identify a complete set of
stakeholders. Complex systems often include a relatively high number of stakeholders
with different (conflicting) interests [13]. In such cases, the process of information
elicitation, documentation and integration is a necessity to achieve informative
conclusions.</p>
      <sec id="sec-2-1">
        <title>Identify stakeholders</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-2">
        <title>Communicate with stakeholders</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-3">
        <title>Integrate the collected inforamtion</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-4">
        <title>Document the needs No</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-5">
        <title>Realize the key requirements Yes</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-6">
        <title>More stakeholders identified?</title>
        <p>Ranking of requirements (or criteria) based on their importance is well discussed in
decision models. The use of multi criteria decision models typically involves a
systematic ranking process as for instance indicated in [4, 14]. The influence of the
ranking process on final decisions is for example explained in [15]. A review of subjective
ranking methods shows that different methods cannot guarantee accurate results. This
inconsistency in judgment explains difficulty of assigning reliable and subjective
weights to the requirements. A systematic approach for ranking is described in [16]
that is a generalization of Saaty’s pairwise structure [17]. Given the presence of
subjectivity in the ranking process, sensitivity analysis of the design criteria is used to
study the influence of variation and the ranking process on the decisions made [18].
Furthermore, some approaches e.g. the task-oriented weighing approach is effectively
used. This approach is meant to limit the subjectivity of criteria weighting [19]. It
suggests an algorithm to rank criteria objectively while considering the uncertainty in
criteria weight [20]. The approach is based on introducing fuzzy numbers that
imposes specified membership functions, which has been also used in [21, 22].</p>
        <p>However, there is an obstacle for systems architectures or engineers in
communication of the proposed methods with different stakeholders. The stakeholders can be
individuals, corporations, organizations and authorities, with different fields/ levels of
knowledge and experience [2]. The stakeholders have interest in the project and they
desire to express their knowledge and expertise to improve the design. They also have
expectations which have to be addressed at the end. Besides, it is advised to designers
to rely on the experts in order to manage design uncertainties since it is proven that
experts provide frameworks for making knowledge based decisions under uncertainty
[23, 24]. This offers a human solution in terms of preferred alternatives. The
uncertainty in importance of design requirements is also of human nature which should be
reflected in the weighting process. To address these, we present the principles of our
method through the next section.</p>
        <p>Communicate the
key requirements
with stakeholders</p>
        <p>Measure how much the</p>
        <p>proposed system
addresses requirements</p>
        <p>Integrate the
collected
information</p>
        <p>Propose a new
alternative
system
Improve the
proposed
system
Measure the
overal system
quality</p>
        <p>No</p>
        <p>A new design
alternative ?</p>
        <p>Yes
System quality is
satisfactory?</p>
        <p>No</p>
        <p>Yes
The proposed
system is chosen
1.3</p>
        <p>To estimate the system quality, an intuitive method is used. Detail description of
this method and its formulation emerge through the rest of this paper. It provides a
consistent framework to value the system under uncertainty and observe how well the
system addresses the stakeholder’s needs. This outcome provide valuable sources for
the system designer or system engineer to monitor the strong and weak point of the
system. Figure 2 presents the functional flow for evaluation of system quality in a
pluralistic approach where the stakeholders’ opinion is fundamentally contributed to
quality evaluation. In this perspective, communication plays an essential role and the
proposed method aims to facilitate this communication.
We aim to present a realistic and intuitive approach that can communicate to people
with different fields of knowledge and expertise. The method must be transparent,
easy to implement and readily adaptable by different users. For this purpose, graphs
are used to effectively communicate with different users. The format presented in
Figure 3 identifies the importance of a requirement according to a stakeholder’s
opinion. The linguistic scale or the numeric scale can be used for the ease of
communication, and one can assign the range of possible importance to a certain requirements.
A probability distribution function (PDF) is assigned to this recorded data. Symmetric
opinions are assumed here in this paper as described in [25, 26] and the collected data
is treated as a random variable with a Gaussian distribution aiming to achieve set of a
stochastic weight factors.
Now m stakeholders assess the importance of the i-th requirement ri , and this
information is represented by stochastic variables ri1 , ri2 ,..., rim , where rik presents the k-th
stakeholder’s opinion over the importance of the i-th requirement. As a result, the
overall expected value and variation of the opinions over the importance of the i-th
requirement rik can be calculated by the following equations.</p>
        <p>1 m
E[ k ]  m  skj 
 sk  j1
k1
Var k  </p>
        <p>1 m
 m 2 j1 Varskj 
  sk 
 k 1 
 m 2
  sk 
 k 1 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
2.3
A quality system must be able to address the initial requirements. Using the proposed
method of this paper, the designer can quantify the stakeholders’ opinion and evaluate
how successfully the system addresses those requirements. For this purpose,
stakeholders evaluate the system quality with regard to the system requirements and this
information is labeled as d1, d2 ,..., di , where di represents the stakeholders’ opinion
over the i-th requirement. The collected data is shown by stochastic variables
di1 , di2 ,..., dim , where dik presents the k-th stakeholder’s opinion over the importance
of the i-th requirement. As a result, the overall expected value and variation of the
opinions over the system quality with regard to the i-th requirement di is calculated
by the following equations.</p>
        <p>1 m
di   m  rk dik 
 rk  k 1
k 1
m
 rk 2 Vardik 
Vardi   k 1
 m 2
  rk 
 k 1 
n
 di 
E[sq]  i1
n
 Vardi 
Varsq  i1
n
n2</p>
        <p>And the overall system quality (sq) and its variation can be shown through the
equations below.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>1. Algorithm</title>
      <p>The block diagram of workflow for evaluation of system quality is shown by Figure 4. It shows
three main steps to evaluate system quality. The first step, which is of essential importance, is
to identify the stakeholders and their requirements. Then the stakeholders and the realized
requirements are ranked. Having this data, the system quality is evaluated.</p>
      <sec id="sec-3-1">
        <title>Identify stakeholders/ requirements</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-2">
        <title>Rank stakeholders/</title>
        <p>requirements</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-3">
        <title>Evaluate the system quality</title>
        <p>(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
This section presents an example application to describe the proposed method. This
example presents a stair-mobility project. This example shows an early estimation of
the design quality in early phases of a project lifecycle where usually a high
uncertainty level is present.</p>
        <p>A company in cooperation with TUDelft defined this project, and a team of
students worked on this project and an individual designer finalized it. The aim of this
project was developing a concept for chair stair-lifts used by adults in the Western
Europe with minor disabilities. This could represent a target group that start feeling
pain in hips, knees or ankles but also consider fatigue and fear issues during the
ascend or descend of staircase.</p>
        <p>Based on the stakeholder’s requirements and designers’ vision, several
requirements were defined to ensure desired functions. For demonstration purpose, we refer
to two of them: natural interaction and ergonomics. Natural Interaction prevents
stigmata surrounding stair lifts, and ergonomics ensures that the product generates a
natural interaction with its user. These requirements are illustrated in Figure 5. This figure
shows the opinion of three stakeholders, and they quantified the stair lift system using
our proposed method. Here in this paper they are evenly graded for demonstration
purpose, and a numerical scale has been used in the figure.</p>
        <sec id="sec-3-3-1">
          <title>Natural Interaction</title>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-3-3-2">
          <title>Ergonomics</title>
          <p>lca lan
ied rso
M eP</p>
          <p>Applying the algorithm explained in Section 2 results in Table 1. This table
presents the integrated and concluding results. Two design requirements and three expert
opinions on these requirements are presented in this table.
This study describes a methodology to measure system quality on a pluralistic basis. It
embeds the importance of design stakeholders and requirements. The proposed
method enables and encourages a designer to communicate with stakeholders or experts
and collect certain or uncertain information, combine this information and valuate
system quality. The application of this method has been shown through the ColdFacts
project.</p>
          <p>The proposed approach promotes the probabilistic thinking and establishes the
principals of a method for using uncertain information based on the probability
theory. This method facilitates information collection and information integration in large,
complex or high-tech systems[13]. Furthermore, it can be integrated with some
currently used methods in system design or systems engineering.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.</p>
          <p>Whitten, J.L., V.M. Barlow, and L. Bentley, Systems analysis and design
methods. 1997: McGraw-Hill Professional.</p>
          <p>Barron, F.H. and B.E. Barrett, Decision quality using ranked attribute
weights. Management Science, 1996. 42(11): p. 1515-1523.</p>
          <p>Takeda, E., K.O. Cogger, and P.L. Yu, Estimating criterion weights using
eigenvectors: A comparative study. European Journal of Operational
Research, 1987. 29(3): p. 360-369.</p>
          <p>Saaty, T.L. and L.G. Vargas, The logic of priorities: applications in business,
energy, health, and transportation. 1982: Kluwer-Nijhoff.</p>
          <p>Barzilai, J., Deriving weights from pairwise comparison matrices. Journal of
the Operational Research Society, 1997. 48(12): p. 1226-1232.</p>
          <p>Yeh, C.-H., et al., Task oriented weighting in multi-criteria analysis.
European Journal of Operational Research, 1999. 119(1): p. 130-146.
Buckley, J.J., Ranking alternatives using fuzzy numbers. Fuzzy Sets and
Systems, 1985. 15(1): p. 21-31.</p>
          <p>Tsai, W.C., A Fuzzy Ranking Approach to Performance eEaluation of
Quality. 2011. Vol. 18. 2011.</p>
          <p>Mitchell, H.B., Rnking-Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers. International Journal of
Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems, 2004. 12(03): p.
377-386.</p>
          <p>Zimmermann, H.J., Fuzzy sets, decision making and expert systems. Vol. 10.
1987: Springer.</p>
          <p>Rajabalinejad, M. Modelling dependencies and couplings in the design space
of meshing gear sets. 2012.</p>
          <p>Choy, S.L., R. O'Leary, and K. Mengersen, Elicitation by design in ecology:
using expert opinion to inform priors for Bayesian statistical models.
Ecology, 2009. 90(1): p. 265-277.</p>
          <p>O'Hagan, A., J. Forster, and M.G. Kendall, Bayesian inference. 2004: Arnold
London.</p>
          <p>Interaction
(w=0.6)</p>
          <p>Expected
value (%)</p>
          <p>Limits (%)
Company
Retailer
Med.
Personal
75
65</p>
          <p>Expected
value (%)
65
50
70-60
60-40
80-70</p>
        </sec>
      </sec>
    </sec>
  </body>
  <back>
    <ref-list>
      <ref id="ref1">
        <mixed-citation>
          <string-name>
            <surname>Haskins</surname>
            ,
            <given-names>C.</given-names>
          </string-name>
          <article-title>Systems engineering handbook</article-title>
          .
          <year>2006</year>
          . INCOSE.
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref2">
        <mixed-citation>
          <string-name>
            <surname>Rajabalinejad</surname>
            ,
            <given-names>M.</given-names>
          </string-name>
          and
          <string-name>
            <given-names>C.</given-names>
            <surname>Spitas</surname>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <article-title>Incorporating Uncertainty into the Design Management Process</article-title>
          .
          <source>Design Management Journal</source>
          ,
          <year>2012</year>
          .
          <volume>6</volume>
          (
          <issue>1</issue>
          ): p.
          <fpage>52</fpage>
          -
          <lpage>67</lpage>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref3">
        <mixed-citation>
          <string-name>
            <given-names>Industrial</given-names>
            <surname>Marketing Management</surname>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <year>1985</year>
          .
          <volume>14</volume>
          (
          <issue>3</issue>
          ): p.
          <fpage>171</fpage>
          -
          <lpage>178</lpage>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref4">
        <mixed-citation>
          <string-name>
            <surname>Pahl</surname>
            ,
            <given-names>G.</given-names>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <string-name>
            <given-names>W.</given-names>
            <surname>Beitz</surname>
          </string-name>
          , and
          <string-name>
            <given-names>K.</given-names>
            <surname>Wallace</surname>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <article-title>Engineering design: a systematic approach</article-title>
          . 1996: Springer Verlag.
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref5">
        <mixed-citation>
          <string-name>
            <surname>Sen</surname>
            ,
            <given-names>P.</given-names>
          </string-name>
          and
          <string-name>
            <surname>J.B. Yang</surname>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <article-title>Multiple criteria decision support in engineering design</article-title>
          . Vol.
          <volume>4</volume>
          . 1998: Springer London.
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref6">
        <mixed-citation>
          <string-name>
            <surname>Spitas</surname>
            ,
            <given-names>C.</given-names>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <article-title>Analysis of systematic engineering design paradigms in industrial practice: A survey</article-title>
          .
          <source>Journal of Engineering Design</source>
          ,
          <year>2011</year>
          .
          <volume>22</volume>
          (
          <issue>6</issue>
          ): p.
          <fpage>427</fpage>
          -
          <lpage>445</lpage>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref7">
        <mixed-citation>
          <string-name>
            <surname>Balachandra</surname>
            ,
            <given-names>R.</given-names>
          </string-name>
          and
          <string-name>
            <given-names>J.H.</given-names>
            <surname>Friar</surname>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <article-title>Factors for success in R&amp;D projects and new product innovation: a contextual framework</article-title>
          .
          <source>Engineering Management</source>
          , IEEE Transactions on,
          <year>1997</year>
          .
          <volume>44</volume>
          (
          <issue>3</issue>
          ): p.
          <fpage>276</fpage>
          -
          <lpage>287</lpage>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref8">
        <mixed-citation>
          <string-name>
            <surname>Roozenburg</surname>
            ,
            <given-names>N.F.M.</given-names>
          </string-name>
          and
          <string-name>
            <given-names>J.</given-names>
            <surname>Eekels</surname>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <article-title>Product design: fundamentals and methods</article-title>
          . 1995: John Wiley &amp; Sons.
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref9">
        <mixed-citation>
          <string-name>
            <surname>Pacheco</surname>
            ,
            <given-names>C.</given-names>
          </string-name>
          and
          <string-name>
            <given-names>I.</given-names>
            <surname>Garcia</surname>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <article-title>A systematic literature review of stakeholder identification methods in requirements elicitation</article-title>
          .
          <source>Journal of Systems and Software</source>
          ,
          <year>2012</year>
          .
          <volume>85</volume>
          (
          <issue>9</issue>
          ): p.
          <fpage>2171</fpage>
          -
          <lpage>2181</lpage>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref10">
        <mixed-citation>
          <string-name>
            <surname>Christel</surname>
            ,
            <given-names>M.G.</given-names>
          </string-name>
          <article-title>and</article-title>
          <string-name>
            <surname>K.C. Kang</surname>
          </string-name>
          , Issues in requirements elicitation.
          <year>1992</year>
          ,
          <string-name>
            <given-names>DTIC</given-names>
            <surname>Document</surname>
          </string-name>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref11">
        <mixed-citation>
          <string-name>
            <surname>Heemels</surname>
            ,
            <given-names>W.</given-names>
          </string-name>
          , et al.,
          <article-title>The key driver method</article-title>
          . Boderc:
          <article-title>Model-Based Design of High-Tech Systems</article-title>
          , edited by W.
          <source>Heemels and GJ Muller</source>
          ,
          <year>2006</year>
          : p.
          <fpage>27</fpage>
          -
          <lpage>42</lpage>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref12">
        <mixed-citation>
          <string-name>
            <surname>Salado</surname>
            ,
            <given-names>A.</given-names>
          </string-name>
          and
          <string-name>
            <given-names>R.</given-names>
            <surname>Nilchiani</surname>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <article-title>Contextual-</article-title>
          and
          <string-name>
            <surname>Behavioral-Centric Stakeholder Identification</surname>
          </string-name>
          .
          <source>Procedia Computer Science</source>
          ,
          <year>2013</year>
          .
          <volume>16</volume>
          : p.
          <fpage>908</fpage>
          -
          <lpage>917</lpage>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref13">
        <mixed-citation>
          <string-name>
            <surname>Heemels</surname>
            ,
            <given-names>W.</given-names>
          </string-name>
          , E. vd
          <string-name>
            <surname>Waal</surname>
            , and
            <given-names>G.</given-names>
          </string-name>
          <string-name>
            <surname>Muller,</surname>
          </string-name>
          <article-title>A multi-disciplinary and modelbased design methodology for high-tech systems</article-title>
          .
          <source>Proceedings of CSER</source>
          ,
          <year>2006</year>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref14">
        <mixed-citation>
          <source>Ergonomic (w=0</source>
          .4)
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
    </ref-list>
  </back>
</article>