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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Software Analytics for MDE Communities (Position Paper)</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>James Williams</string-name>
          <email>james.r.williams@cs.</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Nicholas Matragkas</string-name>
          <email>nicholas.matragkas@cs.</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Dimitris Kolovos</string-name>
          <email>dimitris.kolovos@cs.</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Ioannis Korkontzelos</string-name>
          <email>ioannis.korkontzelos@manchester.ac.uk</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Sophia Ananiadou</string-name>
          <email>sophia.ananiadou@manchester.ac.uk</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Richard Paige</string-name>
          <email>richard.paige@cs.</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Department of Computer Science, University of York</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>York, UK york.ac.uk</addr-line>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>NaCTeM, Manchester University</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Manchester</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="UK">UK</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>The MDE research community has grown signi cantly in size and maturity in the last decade. During these years, a plethora of languages and tools has been proposed to address di erent challenges of the MDE approach to software development. As the community continues to broaden its expertise, it is worthwhile to assess its practices in order to identify areas of improvement. To this end, we propose to apply software analytics techniques on open source MDE tools and languages. In this paper, we describe how such an analysis can take place, and we present a set of preliminary results on analysing the newsgroup activity of 10 Eclipse modelling projects.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>MDE</kwd>
        <kwd>Data Mining</kwd>
        <kwd>Open Source Software</kwd>
        <kwd>Automated Analysis</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>
        Since the rst International Workshop on the \Uni ed Modelling Language
(UML): Beyond the Notation" in Mulhouse in 1998 [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ], the MDE research
community has grown signi cantly in size and maturity. During these years,
a plethora of languages and tools has been proposed to address the di erent
challenges of the MDE approach to software development. Currently, the MDE
community is at a stage, where it attempts to assess its impact on the industrial
practice of software engineering. To this end, several empirical investigations
have been conducted (e.g., [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12 ref14 ref5">14, 5, 12</xref>
        ]) and most of them report similar ndings.
More particularly, it is found that the industrial adoption of MDE has been slow
despite the published veri able evidence for enhancing both developer
productivity and product quality [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        Poor industrial adoption is attributed to technical, economic, and social
factors. Technical barriers are both pragmatic and theoretical [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ]. Pragmatic
barriers are primarily concerned with the provided MDE tool support, namely its
usability, scalability and reliability [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15 ref9">9, 15</xref>
        ]. On the other hand the theoretical
limitations have to do with our fundamental understanding of software and
systems modelling. More particularly, [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ] notes that we lack deeper understanding
in the areas of language design, model synchronisation, model transformations,
and model validation. Furthermore, economic barriers to the industrial
adoption of MDE have to do with the training and the investment in time and tools
required by an organisation in order to adopt MDE. Finally, the social factors
in uencing MDE adoption are related to the reluctance of organisations to try
new things, and the lack of MDE skills in the workforce [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref20">20</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>Although the aforementioned studies provide a valuable empirical
assessment of MDE in the industry, they do not provide an assessment of the MDE
landscape itself. This distinction is subtle but very important. For example, the
existing studies have found out that organisations perceive that the barrier to
entry in MDE is very high. However, there is no study to assess why this
perception exists. Such a perception could be the result of poor documentation of
MDE tools, of unhelpful communities, or a combination of both. In this paper,
we propose the application of software analytics in order to analyse the MDE
landscape and to gain a better understanding of its current state, as well as of
its future potential. The combined understanding of the MDE landscape and of
the industrial perceptions and practices can allow the MDE community to
address any existing issues in order to make MDE part of the mainstream software
engineering practices.</p>
      <p>In addition to gaining understanding, an analysis of the MDE landscape
could provide a useful tool to potential adopters, who could use the identi ed
advantages and limitations of the various MDE tools during decision making.
Deciding whether an MDE tool meets the required standards for adoption in terms
of quality, maturity, activity of development and user support is not a
straightforward process. This task involves exploring a variety of sources of information
including the tool's source code repositories (if the tool is open source),
communication channels, and bug tracking systems. Source code repositories can help
the potential adopter to identify how actively the code is developed and how
thoroughly the code is tested. Communication channels, such as newsgroups,
forums and mailing lists, help identify whether user questions are answered in
a timely and satisfactory manner, and help estimate the number of experts and
users of the software. Bug tracking systems can show whether the software has
many open bugs and at which rate bugs are xed. By providing the results of
such an assessment to possible adopters, we reduce the cost in terms of time and
e ort of performing this analysis themselves. Moreover, the risk of adoption is
reduced since they can make an informed decision on whether to adopt or not a
particular technology.</p>
      <p>The rest of the paper is organised as follows: Section 2.1 identi es which a
set of characteristics to measure. Section 2.2 describes how MDE open source
projects could be used for the proposed analysis, while Section 2.3 describes
brie y the infrastructure needed. Section 3 presents the preliminary results on
analysing the activity of the newsgroups of 10 Eclipse modelling projects. Finaly,
Section 4 concludes the discussion and presents future work.
2</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Software Analytics for MDE</title>
      <p>In 1883 Lord Kelvin said \To measure is to know". This principle of
quantied knowledge is at the crux of software analytics, which is the eld of nding
meaningful patterns in software engineering data. The application of software
analytics can help answer important questions tool adopters ask such as \How
e ective is this project at xing bugs?", \Is the community of this project
active?" or \How quickly will I get help if I have a problem?". In the following
sections, we brie y discuss on how we plan to apply software analytics to MDE.
2.1</p>
      <sec id="sec-2-1">
        <title>Start with a Question</title>
        <p>
          Every analytics exercise starts with a set of interesting questions to be answered.
In the case of applying analytics to MDE, we propose that this set of questions
should be inspired by the research literature on open source adoption, which
reports on the factors, which make an OSS project successful, i.e. a project which
is long lived and adopted by a large number of individuals. [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref19 ref3">10, 19, 3</xref>
          ]. OSS success
is a ected by ve broad categories of factors, namely software quality, community
quality, project activity, user interest, and developer interest [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref19">10, 19</xref>
          ]. By using
the identi ed success factors as goals, and by using the Goal/Question/Metric
(GQM) methodology [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
          ], we can derive a set of metrics to use in order to measure
aspects of OSS MDE projects.
        </p>
        <p>
          Software Quality : Studies have found that software quality has a considerable
in uence on individual satisfaction [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
          ]. In the case of OSS MDE tools, individuals
can be simple users, or developers, who want to reuse, extend, or modify the
tool. Traditional software quality models such as ISO-196 [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
          ] propose to measure
aspects of the software such as its maintainability, reusability and scalability.
Community Quality : In the context of OSS, community quality can be
interpreted as the technical support provided by the members of an OSS project to
other members. Following [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
          ], community quality can be de ned as
\individual's perception about the reliability, responsiveness, assurance, and empathy of
the service provided by the OSS development community". Studies have found
that there is a strong correlation between community quality and individual
satisfaction [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13</xref>
          ].
        </p>
        <p>
          Project Activity : There are two main types of activity in an OSS project. First,
it is the development activity and size, i.e. how fast bugs are xed, how often
new features are added, how often there is a new release etc. On the other hand,
there is the community activity and size, which is related to the activity in the
communication channels of the project. Communication channels include user
newsgroups, developer mailing lists, bug tracking systems, etc. Crowston et al.
[
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
          ] showed that there is a strong correlation between project activity and project
success. Subramaniam et al. [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref19">19</xref>
          ] argues that OSS software displays direct and
indirect network e ects. OSS projects bene t from an increased number of users
because the communication and the contributions potentially increase and the
knowledge base for this project increases.
        </p>
        <p>
          User Interest : User interest is one of the most relevant aspects of OSS success.
Following [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref18">18</xref>
          ], user interest is de ned as the ability of a project to attract users
to adopt the project. By having a large pool of users, a project enjoys better
community support, faster bug xes and bug reports, etc. Indicators of user
interest include the number of downloads [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref19">19</xref>
          ], number of individuals participating
in newsgroups [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
          ], or tra c on the project's Web site [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
          ].
        </p>
        <p>
          Developer Interest : In the OSS context, the distinction between a user and a
developer is blurred. Users usually make use of the software but they are also
developing it. However, researchers have argued that every project consists of a
very small number of core developers, who are developing the main features of
the software, and a larger number of `peripheral' developers, who make minor
contributions, x bugs, and write documentation. In the context of our work,
we regard the former as developers, and the latter as users. A large and steady
number of core developers ensures active development. [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17">17</xref>
          ] suggest that
developer interest is strongly correlated to user interest. Most particularly, developers'
interest in a project increases as the user interest increases as their intellectual
contributions have a wider audience.
2.2
        </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-2">
        <title>Obtain the data</title>
        <p>
          Once we have a set of questions, we need to obtain the appropriate data in
order to quantitatively answer these questions. The MDE community consists
to a large extent of open source projects. [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
          ] provides a long list of MDE tools
and languages used in the industry and more than half of them are open source.
Moreover, some of these tools and languages hold such a prominent position in
the MDE landscape, that they are considered to be de facto standards. The most
well known of these is the Eclipse Modelling Framework (EMF) [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">16</xref>
          ], which is
considered to be the metamodelling de facto standard [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
          ]. These projects are
either hosted on public forges such as the Eclipse forge3 or on private servers.
To obtain the data for the propose analysis, three types of resources should be
mined. First, version control systems such as SVN4 or Git5 should be mined to
obtain data about the source code of a tool, the development activity and the
size of the developer community. Second, bug tracking systems such as Bugzilla6
3 http://projects.eclipse.org/list-of-projects
4 http://subversion.apache.org/
5 http://git-scm.com/
6 http://www.bugzilla.org/
should be mined in order to obtain data about the number of bugs,
communication activity, and average time to x a bug. Finally, communication channels
such as mailing lists and newsgroups should be mined to obtain data about the
size of the user community, the user satisfaction, and user participation.
2.3
        </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-3">
        <title>Perform the analysis</title>
        <p>To measure and monitor the MDE landscape, we need a tool which is able rst
to extract the required data from the various information sources, and then
analyse them in an automated manner. The OSSMETER project7 provides a OSS
extensible telemetry platform, which can perform this type of analysis. The
platform integrates and manages a number of software measurement components,
which extract and analyse software project data in regular time intervals.
Furthermore, the platform facilitates the visualisation of measurements, as well as
direct comparison of projects.
3</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Preliminary Results</title>
      <p>As a rst step towards realising the proposed analysis, we have analysed the
activity of the newsgroups of 10 open source modelling projects hosted by the
Eclipse Foundation. Newsgroup activity relates to the project activity and user
interest factors of project success identi ed in Section 2.1. The projects were
selected due to having more than 2000 messages in their newsgroup (as of 16th
April, 2014). For each project we monitored how the following metrics evolved
over time:
{ Number of new users
{ Number of new threads
{ Number of active users (measured by counting the number of users who
posted in the previous 15 days)
{ Number of messages classi ed as requests and as replies
{ The average number of requests and replies per thread</p>
      <p>A complete list of the analysed projects as well as the results of the
analysis can be found at: http://www.ossmeter.com/. An illustration of the
implemented visualisations is shown in Figure 1. Moreover, the raw data for this
analysis can be obtained from: https://github.com/ossmeter/oss4mde.</p>
      <p>Figure 2 illustrates two of the derived plots. More particularly, Figure 2a
shows the number of active users of EMF8 from February 2007 until August
2008. The dotted lines represent project milestones. We can observe that around
milestone dates, the number of active users increases. Figure 2b overlays the
number of EMF active users with the number of active users of the JDT Eclipse
project9, which is a very popular Eclipse project. From this plot we can observe
7 http://www.ossmeter.org/
8 http://www.eclipse.org/modeling/emf/
9 http://www.eclipse.org/jdt/
the EMF demonstrates similar levels of activity compared to JDT, which is a
positive sign.</p>
      <p>One interesting pattern, noticed is a decrease in the number of active users
of the newsgroups. Table 1 lists the average number of active users from 2010
until April 2014. Seven out of ten projects demonstrate this pattern, meaning
that less people are frequent contributors to the discussions on the newsgroups.
This can be an indication of a shrinking community.</p>
      <p>We have also observed that active users metric correlates with a decrease
in the number of new users and new threads. This is particularly prevalent in
the GMF project10 - a set of libraries and tools for generating graphical editors
for modelling languages. Back in 2008 the number of active users uctuated
between 70 and 100, whereas in the last month (April 2014) the newsgroup
has approximately 10 active users. This suggests that the users of GMF may
have begun to migrate to an alternative tool. One potential project that may be
gaining GMF's old user base is Graphiti11, which has shown steady growth in
new users since it's creation in 2010.</p>
      <p>Two languages that go hand-in-hand in the modelling world are UML and
OCL. There are Eclipse projects that provide support for both of these
languages (UML2, UML2Tools, OCL12). Whereas the OCL project has maintained
a steady number of active users and still gains new users each month, UML2
10 http://www.eclipse.org/modeling/gmp/
11 https://www.eclipse.org/graphiti/
12 http://www.eclipse.org/modeling/mdt/?project=uml2
se
r
ivseU 60
t
c
A</p>
      <p>0
rse 15
s
U
tcveA 100
i
(a) Number of active users for EMF.
and UML2Tools are losing users and activity in the newsgroup is declining.
As GMF users may be migrating to Graphiti, UML2 users may be moving to
a project such as Papyrus13 - a project providing graphical editors for UML
(and other languages), with industrial backing. One potential reason for OCLs
continued activity is that it can be used with EMF as well as UML. The
requests/replies per day metrics for OCL shows the lack of developer response
in the early years, where the requests outnumbered replies. Since August 2013,
however, the number of replies has overtaken the number of requests, suggesting
an active development team behind the project.</p>
      <p>Similarly, Table 2 shows the number of average messages per month from
2010 until April 2014. The number of messages demonstrates a similar pattern
to the number of active users. More particularly, half of the projects have a
decreasing number of new messages in their newsgroups. This can be an
indication of declining user participation on the newsgroups of the particular projects.
13 http://www.eclipse.org/papyrus/
On the other hand, there are projects such as Papyrus and Eclipse OCL, which
demonstrate remarkable increase. This can possibly indicate an internal mobility
of users within MDE projects.</p>
      <p>Concerning the number of threads metric. the Epsilon project14, has the
longest message threads out of all the projects analysed. Currently it averages
4.8 messages per thread, consisting of 1.8 requests and 2.9 replies. Typically, the
average thread length in all projects is between three and four. This is likely
the original question followed by an answer then a \thank you". Extra messages
may be asking for clari cation, or follow up questions.
4</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Conclusions</title>
      <p>In this paper, we have argued for the use of software analytics for assessing the
current state of the MDE landscape. With a better understanding of the MDE
landscape and of the perceptions of MDE in the industry, the MDE community
can take the necessary steps in order to make MDE a standard practice in
industrial software engineering. To perform the required analysis we propose
the use of the many open source MDE tools and languages, which are hosted on
public forges and private servers. Furthermore, we propose the user of the success
factors of OSS projects as an initial set of characteristics to measure. Finally, we
report on some of our initial ndings related to measuring newsgroup activity
in 10 popular Eclipse modelling projects.</p>
      <p>There is a great amount of work that can be done in the context of analysing
MDE projects; we have only scratched the surface here. In addition to analysing
the source code repositories and the bug tracking systems, we plan to further
analyse each newsgroup message to determine its sentiment, allowing us to gain
14 http://www.eclipse.org/epsilon/
insight into how happy users are, or whether they are frustrated with the
software/support they are receiving. This will allow us to understand whether users
are receiving good support, and may also enable us to answer interesting
questions, such as \Do longer threads tend to have less happy users?". Finally, we
plan to extend our analysis to more MDE tools and languages.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Acknowledgements</title>
      <p>This research was part supported by the EU, through the OSSMETER FP7
STREP project (#318736).</p>
    </sec>
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