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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Ontological Support for Living Plan Specification, Execution and Evaluation</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Erik Thomsen</string-name>
          <email>ethomsen@cra.com</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Frederick Reed</string-name>
          <email>freed@cra.com</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>William Duncan Tatiana Malyuta</string-name>
          <email>tmalyuta@thedatascience.org</email>
          <email>wdduncan@gmail.com</email>
          <email>wdduncan@gmail.com tmalyuta@thedatascience.org</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Barry Smith</string-name>
          <email>phismith@buffalo.edu</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Charles River</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Analytics, Cambridge, MA</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="US">USA</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>NCOR New York City College of</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Buffalo, NY Technology, NY, NY</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="US">USA</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2">
          <label>2</label>
          <institution>NCOR</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Buffalo, NY</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="US">USA</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <fpage>10</fpage>
      <lpage>17</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>-Maintaining systems of military plans is critical for military effectiveness, but is also challenging. Plans will become obsolete as the world diverges from the assumptions on which they rest. If too many ad hoc changes are made to intermeshed plans, the ensemble may no longer lead to well-synchronized and coordinated operations, resulting in the system of plans becoming itself incoherent. We describe in what follows an Adaptive Planning process that we are developing on behalf of the Air Force Research Laboratory (Rome) with the goal of addressing problems of these sorts through cyclical collaborative plan review and maintenance. The interactions of world state, blue force status and associated plans are too complex for manual adaptive processes, and computer-aided plan review and maintenance is thus indispensable. We argue that appropriate semantic technology can 1) provide richer representation of plan-related data and semantics, 2) allow for flexible, non-disruptive, agile, scalable, and coordinated changes in plans, and 3) support more intelligent analytical querying of plan-related data.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>adaptive planning</kwd>
        <kwd>outcomes assessment</kwd>
        <kwd>ontology</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>
        THE NEED FOR ADAPTIVE PLANNING
“No plan survives first contact with the enemy”
(Clausewitz, On War). Real world uncertainties all but
guarantee that even the most carefully developed plan will not
be carried out exactly as intended. The military response, as in
the business domain, has been to increase the speed and agility
of planning and execution [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref2 ref3 ref4">1-4</xref>
        ]. On the strategic level, the
transition from the Joint Operation Planning and Execution
System (JOPES) to an Adaptive Planning and Execution
(APEX) system exemplifies this trend. In addition to speeding
up the deliberate planning and review cycle, these efforts seek
to increase the number of planned options and contingencies.
      </p>
      <p>According to the Adaptive Roadmap II, signed by the
Secretary of Defense in March 2008, the ultimate goal is to
provide plans that are “maintained continuously within a
collaborative environment” to reflect any changes that impact
any significant aspects of a plan. Such plans will together form
something the Adaptive Roadmap calls a “living plan.” Plans
may need to be adjusted to maintain their relevance based on
changes in the world (e.g., weather, location of enemy troops,
troop readiness, air assets). Additionally, they may need to be
adjusted in order to maintain their coherence within a system
of plans, such as when the goals of supporting or supported
plans change.</p>
      <p>II.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>THE IDEA OF THE LIVING PLAN</title>
      <p>In the current state of military planning – as encapsulated in
Joint Doctrine (JP 5.0) – a distinction is drawn between
deliberate planning and crisis action planning. Deliberate
planning is supply driven. Plans are static information objects
created as the outputs of a deliberative, rule-governed process,
and stored in a repository until needed. They may be created
years ahead of actual use, or they may never be used at all.
Crisis actions plans are demand driven: something happened
and we need an urgent response; because the response should
involve a degree of organized action, planning is needed. Crisis
action planning is a response to the uncertainty involved in our
knowledge of real-world states. But even deliberate planning
rests on an institutional acknowledgement of our inability to
accurately predict the future, in that Doctrine allows the
making of ad hoc resource requests which deviate from the
deliberate plan as specified. Sometimes, on first contact with
the enemy, deliberate plans break and workarounds are needed.
Regardless of the quality of the prior deliberation that went into
the deliberate plan, the need for such corrective actions as a
result of the unanticipated interactions between blue forces and
the world make for suboptimal procedures.</p>
      <p>The goal of the living plan is to remove this ‘breaks
because it would not bend’ feature of the deliberative plan by
minimizing the distinction between deliberate planning and
crisis action planning through a new type of planning process
that is marked by constant update in light of updates in our
real-world knowledge. The idea is to embed into the very
fabric of plan representation our uncertainties about the world,
so that the activity of planning is transformed from one of the
creation of plans as outputs to a process of continuous plan
development. The living plan itself becomes a probabilistic,
branching information artifact – a representation of the
moment-to-moment intentions not merely of single platoon
commanders but of the military as a whole. It incorporates at
each phase representations of multiple alternative courses of
action which are continuously changing in light of actual and
projected states of the world, adjacent plans, supporting and
supported plans.</p>
      <p>III.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>ADAPTIVE PLANNING REQUIREMENTS We believe that any computational approach to supporting the Secretary of Defense’s goal for living plans must meet six critical requirements.</title>
      <p>First, it must be able to represent all the types of entities
and relationships, knowledge about which is important to
maintaining a living plan. This requires a highly expressive
representational capability to capture, manage, and reason
over plans, plan elements (e.g., goals, available assets, weather,
battle terrain), and their relations within a system of plans.</p>
      <p>
        Second, any approach must be able to detect meaningful
changes that impact plan relevance and coherence. This
requires effective monitoring and sensitivity analysis to identify
in a reliable and scalable way those changes which are of
significance to the system of plans [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5 ref6">5,6</xref>
        ]. Recognition of the
significant changes must then trigger processes that maintain
the relevance and coherence of this system at multiple levels
and across plan elements.
      </p>
      <p>Third, any approach requires coordinated adjustment
processes, which are needed to fulfill the second requirement
(above). Such processes must be able to run independently, be
applicable (when necessary) to real-time conditions, and be
capable of harmonizing with other large-scale plan
adjustments.</p>
      <p>Fourth, any such approach requires automated information
extraction and routing because maintaining realistic plans
requires more information processing than can be achieved
through manual methods alone.</p>
      <p>Fifth, whether in support of human planners, warfighters
during mission execution, operations assessment staff, or
automated systems performing the same tasks, any approach
needs to support analytical queries against the ensemble of
plan-related data. Since plan-related data is very
heterogeneous, this amounts to applying a unified structured query
front end to structured and unstructured data on the backend.</p>
      <p>Sixth, joint warfighters at all levels of command will need
to collaboratively plan and execute in conjunction with
semiautomated adaptive planning systems. Therefore, any approach
for providing living plans must support extensible and versatile
interactive applications that can deal with the sorts of diverse
but integrated user environments required for living plans.</p>
      <p>Relative to the six requirements described above for
supporting the Secretary of Defense’s goal for living plans, our
overall approach is based on the idea that semantic
representation of data by means of ontologies, combined with
probabilistic classifiers operating in a transactional
environment, will allow the needed representation, monitoring,
analysis, sharing and querying of information at distinct levels
of granularity and detail and across distinct applications. The
system will be required, for example, to display a JFACC’s
view of ATO mission plans, a squadron Commander’s view of
the day’s mission plan, and STRATCOM’s view of a Theater.
As in other domains, the semantic approach is designed to
reduce information siloes, and enable effective tailoring of
knowledge and information to different needs. It is designed
also in such a way as to allow incremental improvements over
time, as shortcomings in the framework uncovered at any given
stage are rectified in subsequent stages.</p>
      <p>In what follows we focus on the first and fifth requirements
described above: for rich representations of data and semantics,
and for the capacity to use such representations in mounting
queries against plan-related data.</p>
      <p>As regards the former, we describe the coverage domain of
our proposed Plan Ontology (see Figure 2) in terms of how we:
(a) model plans in terms of cyclical phase-specific attributes;
(b) embed metrics that relate plans to world conditions; and (c)
embed meta-metrics that use the metrics under (b) to create an
incremental plan and plan-execution improvement process
across the whole system. On each level multiple families of
related terms will be required, including definitions and axioms
specifying the relations between them.</p>
      <p>As regards the latter, we describe how queries are passed
through parts of the system in order to illustrate some of the
semantic relations that need to be computed in order to support
analytically useful queries over living plan data.</p>
      <sec id="sec-3-1">
        <title>REPRESENTING PLANS IN RECURRING PHASES</title>
        <p>To better understand and support the notion of continuous,
living plans, we require a view of planning that is more
abstract than is traditionally employed. The simplistic notion of
‘the plan’ created prior to ‘the execution’ is at odds with our
view of planning as a dynamic, continuous, iterative process
that not only adapts to the effects of planned actions, but also
adapts the process of planning itself in ways designed to
achieve more satisfactory outcomes over time.</p>
        <p>Our model focuses on three primary factors in the planning
process:
1. different phases of the planning process (successive
phases within a given course of planning processes),
2. types of judgments within each of those phases that
enable effective planning, and</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-2">
        <title>3. information, including metrics, on which these</title>
        <p>judgments are grounded.</p>
        <p>On the traditional view, planning only happens periodically
as a precursor to its execution. Here, in contrast, we view the
total planning process computationally as forming a series of
parallel, interacting courses or flows at a number of different
levels. These processes unfold dynamically, with changes in
any given course being communicated to parallel and
hierarchically related courses wherever changes in the latter are
required. The system is organized in such a way that updated
versions of needed plans and subplans can be generated at any
point in time.</p>
        <p>Each parallel course is itself seen as being organized into a
succession of three phases corresponding roughly to the first
three phases of the well-known Plan Do Check Act (PDCA)
cycle, and similar models. A difference is that the phases in our
framework are viewed as continuous and intermeshed with
each other rather than discreet. Especially the Act phase, where
adaptive actions are taken, is distributed and continuous across
the other phases.</p>
        <p>development – This phase consists of processes of
identifying, considering, selecting, constructing, and/or
modifying potential courses-of-action (COAs) that are
expected to satisfy a goal. This includes the process of
creating and maintaining potentially executable ‘plans
sitting on the shelf’ in traditional, deliberate planning –
referred to in our ontology as ‘plan specifications’. The
distinguishing feature of this phase is that there has
been no decision to take actual actions in conformity
with and under commitment to any specific plan.
execution – This phase involves processes of planning
while acting according to a particular planned COA.
Unlike random or spontaneous actions, such planned
processes can be evaluated relative to the plan. For
example, indicators can be used to judge whether the
intermediate effects of planned actions are consistent
with expectations. But, as the plan has not yet
terminated, the net effect of all planned actions relative
to the goal set forth in the plan cannot be judged. A
key planning process in the execution phase is the
making of a decision to terminate execution because
the goal has been achieved, or because the plan is no
longer relevant or coherent, or is being executed
unsatisfactorily.
post-execution – This phase involves the
postexecution processes of interpreting and judging an
executed plan and its outcomes relative to
expectations. In this process, all actions taken under
commitment to the plan have been taken. Thus their
net effect can be assessed relative to the specified goal.
The primary purpose of the processes involved in this
post-execution phase is to enhance future planning, for
example by:
o
o
o
defining new goals;
clarifying existing goals;
improving effectiveness in achieving goals.</p>
        <p>Associated with processes of each of the mentioned types
are four basic planning-related judgments that enable reasoning
aimed at leading to the creation and selection of better plans:
relevance – How well does the current state of
planning relate to actual or anticipated external world
conditions, such as constraints, opportunities, planned
outcomes, unplanned side-effects, etc.?
coherence – How well do the processes of planning
on-going in the current phases relate to other
synergistic planning processes. In other words, are they
in conflict or coherent with other friendly force,
coalition, political, etc. planning?
planning-assessment – How well were the processes in
each phase of planning performed by the planner, from
a single person to an organization?
meta-metric learning – How well does the current set
of metrics support the goal of evolutionary
improvement of the entire planning process (and, as a
consequence thereof, the entire process of creating and
executing and evaluating plans)?</p>
        <p>In this section, we bring together the three factors of
planning outlined above – phases, judgments, and metrics – to
see how they merge to form a more complete picture of a
continuous adaptive planning process. For each combination of
planning phase and judgment we provide example metrics.
These are provided here for illustrative purposes only, and
especially as concerns plan execution our framework will draw
on the extensive list of Measures of Effectiveness and
Performance identified in salient doctrine for the tasks of the
Universal Joint Task List, for example as described at:
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a398683.pdf</p>
        <sec id="sec-3-2-1">
          <title>A. Plan Development Phase</title>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-3-2-2">
          <title>1) Relevance</title>
          <p>Example metrics informing the judgment whether a
potential plan will be relevant to some anticipated world state:
Values and locations of relevant adversary assets (a
plan to invade a country to remove WMD stockpiles
would be irrelevant if there were no stockpiles, or if
existing stockpiles were unreachable in a timely
manner)
Number of red operational defensive SAM sites (a
plan that did not either act to reduce this number, or
account for blue attrition because of them, would not
be relevant)
Number of blue re-fueling tankers available during
a period (a plan with more missions than could be
supported for refueling would not be relevant)
Network of adversary command communications (a
plan that intends to cripple communications by taking
out a central node is not relevant if the network is
decentralized and/or has alternate paths)</p>
          <p>Example metrics informing the judgment of whether a
potential plan will be coherent with other related planning:
Rates of attrition of shared assets (a plan that
overoptimistically assumes assets will remain available
after another plan executes is not coherent)
Times of anticipated/actual actions that are signs of
intentions (a plan that assumes an element of surprise
is not coherent with another plan that takes earlier
actions that signal a shared or related intent)
Intentions of non-military planning in Area of
Operations (a military plan that depends on
largescale destruction of economic infrastructure, apparatus
of civil authority, etc. is not coherent with a political
plan that seeks to rapidly restore civil rest and order)
3) Planning Assessment</p>
          <p>Example metrics informing the assessment of planning
performance during plan development:</p>
          <p>Time required to reach plan execution phase
(compared to predicted, needed, historical, and so on)
Number of substantially different COAs and
embedded options considered (based on the
assumption that the larger the number of options the
better is the understanding of the space of options)
Number of relevance and coherence metrics
considered (by some definition of considered and a
procedure for counting separate metrics)
Length of review chain prior to approval by
Commander (includes first-pass and re-review cycles)
4)</p>
          <p>Meta-Metric Learning</p>
          <p>Example meta-metrics describing how well the relevance,
coherence and planning assessment metrics support plan
development, and enable improvement of the metrics – and
thus of the total planning process – over time. Meta-metric
learning often requires data over combinations of planning
phases.</p>
          <p>Inter-phase meta-metrics deriving from
correlations between some earlier-phase metric
with some later-phase metric relating to outcomes
(for example: if the number of options embedded in
COAs has historically correlated positively with
postexecution assessment metrics indicating greater
satisfaction of plan goals, then it may become a more
positive metric that is given greater weight in future
plans)
Correlation between intra-phase metrics generally
considered positive (or negative) (for example: the
number of COA options considered is itself to be
viewed as a positive metric; but if this number goes up
in such a way that the time required to bring a plan to
execution goes up at the same time (which is
considered negative), then this suggests an
optimization is possible, or perhaps a different metric,
such as measuring the difference in time between
completing a plan and its estimated time of execution
rather than total time)
Percent of relevance and coherence metrics with
measures above a certain level of belief/confidence
(over time, the confidence in metrics should be driven
up, for example the confidence in metrics of adversary
state such as number of SAM sites should be actively
improved with better sensors and analysis processes)
Number of corrections made to a metric
(‘corrections’ means: substantial changes in a metric
which are made on the basis of evidence contradictory
to the original estimate of what sort of metric would be
needed; for example: contradictory evidence that the
current WMD estimate, made by whatever process, is
wrong leads to improving the process that led to this
estimate).</p>
          <p>B. Plan Execution
1) Relevance</p>
          <p>Metrics informing the judgment whether an actual plan
being executed remains relevant to actual conditions, such as
constraints and opportunities:</p>
          <p>Cloud height over intended target (may violate
constraint of target visibility)
Number/rate of adversary unit surrenders or other
change in adversary offensive activity (may indicate
plan assumptions regarding adversary’s will to fight
are incorrect or not relevant)
Aggregate Measures of Performance (MOPs) for
current actions (low levels of mission performance
may indicate that the pre-conditions and contexts for
actual actions were not satisfactorily planned – for
example low levels of destroy, degrade, deny, disrupt
(4Ds) may indicate poor intelligence, weaponeering,
etc.)</p>
          <p>Example metrics informing the judgment whether a plan
remains coherent over time:</p>
          <p>Changes in planned asset availability committed by
other plans (for example: there are assets which the
plan assumes other plans do not require)
Success rate of synchronization points (if plans have
explicit specifications of COA relationships,
definedexecution windows, handoffs, meetings, supporting
events, and so on, then what is the rate at which these
relations are successfully maintained?)</p>
          <p>Example metrics informing the assessment of whether the
plan is being executed satisfactorily:</p>
          <p>Percent of scheduled missions flown on time
(assessing compliance with plan, not outcomes)
Rate COA modifications made per unit time (a
better specified plan might require a lower rate of
modifications)
Aggregate time delays of actual execution for
planned simultaneous actions (for example in
massing fires in planned combined air strike and artillery)
Time from a relevant change in world state to the
appropriate change in COA (for example: time from
when the new target location information is obtained to
time when a new mission tasking has been created that
accounts for the new information)
4)</p>
          <p>Meta-Metric Learning</p>
          <p>Meta-metrics describing how well the relevance, coherence
and planning assessment metrics support plan execution, and
enable improvement of the metrics:</p>
          <p>Inter-phase metric correlation (for example: low
correlation between missions flown on time and
postexecution MOE metrics may suggest that flight
promptness is not as important as thought, perhaps
because late flights were able to act on better, more
recent information)
Intra-phase metric correlation (for example: a
negative correlation of rate of COA changes and aggregate
time delays of planned simultaneous actions may
suggest that allowing more frequent COA changes to
constructively maintain coherence is beneficial,
notwithstanding the expected disruptive effect of the changes;
better metrics might distinguish COA changes by class
of initiating event, such as new information, command
decision, and so on; as the framework itself becomes
more sophisticated in its reasoning power, more
frequent COA changes will themselves become more
easily accommodated by the planning system)
C. Post Execution
1) Relevance</p>
          <p>These are metrics informing the judgment of the effects of
the executed plan on world state, particularly relative to
intended outcomes. In addition to the more typical post-operations
assessment process, there are other ways to conceptualize
postexecution relevance. For example: do the lessons drawn from
assessment have relevance to the current or future world? Is the
originally desired outcome – such as destroying (or building
up) another actor’s offensive capability (for example arming
the Taliban) of continued relevance? Or is it becoming less
relevant, for example because they have changed sides?
Number of missiles landing in homeland (this is said
to have been the post-execution operations metric for
the recent Gaza invasion)
Number of computer systems not patched for
exploit X (exploit X might have worked well on this
occasion, but if the adversary has since learned about it
and therefore patched the prior vulnerability, the
simple assessment that it worked well previously is not
particularly relevant for future planning)</p>
          <p>Metrics informing the judgment how the net outcome is
coherent with other plans (in any phase)</p>
          <p>Actual asset attrition (for example: achieving the
current plan objective with more or fewer bullets may
not matter to the current plan, but it may harm/limit
other planning. This is following the notion that
Relevance is assessing the relation of the outcome to
the current world state, so Coherence would be the
relation between the outcome and other plans.)
Degree to which actual net outcome facilitates or
limits COAs of future plans (e.g., confident removal
of WMD threat makes other plans easier to develop and
execute)
3) Planning Assessment</p>
          <p>Metrics informing the judgment of how well the
postexecution planning process is performed:</p>
          <p>The number of indicator metrics integrated into the
overall goal assessment (for example: if goal end-state
is to influence future behavior, then more indirect
present indicators would potentially lead to better
inference of future behavior tendencies)
The fraction of actually executed missions for which
a reliable measure of performance exists (for how
many missions do we have the metrics needed to assess
mission performance? for any given mission, how many
salient performance metrics are we actually capturing
for that mission?)
The number of lessons-learned distributed (clearly
depends on how lessons and distribution are counted)
4)</p>
          <p>Meta-Metric Learning</p>
          <p>Meta-metrics describing how well the relevance, coherence
and planning assessment metrics support plan assessment, and
enable improvement of the metrics:
Inter-phase correlation (e.g., correlation of
lessonslearned distributed and follow-on planning preparation
metrics over time might suggest little relationship
between the two. Perhaps the value of the lesson should
be included in the metric, or independently, whether the
lesson-learned changed any process)
Intra-phase correlation (e.g., no correlation between
asset attrition and assessment of satisfaction of goal
state suggests that it might valuable to distinguish
between “productive” and “unproductive” attrition)
VI.</p>
          <p>ONTOLOGY-DRIVEN QUERYING OF PLAN INFORMATION
The kinds of representations described above are necessary to
support Living Plan requirements. But they are not sufficient.
Without the query support to populate them, the
representations are vacuous. Since the underlying living
planrelated data requires the inference-based identification of
objects with associated attribute and location information
under conditions of uncertainty, ontology-driven query
mechanisms will need to include probabilistic functions in
addition to more traditional deductive ones.</p>
          <p>Consider the following metric where we have underlined
ontology terms to be used by the Living Plan framework:
the percentage of operational anti-aircraft missile sites
by area-of-operations for some given plan specification.
Such a metric would be useful in determining the progress of
an operational objective for example related to suppression of
air defenses. Though seemingly straightforward, even this
metric raises a number of interesting semantic challenges that
need to be resolved by a query processor.</p>
          <p>As stated, the metric is conditioned on a user’s
specification of a plan. Given a plan, the metric represents the
percentage of operational anti-aircraft missile sites by
area-ofoperations for the specified plan. The query processor thus
needs to be able to ascertain area-of-operations associated with
a given plan, something which could possibly vary over time.
A. Indirect identification of plans</p>
          <p>Even the identification of the plan may be a non-trivial
exercise. While in theory it may be possible to use a unique
plan identifier to locate the desired plan, in practice the plan
may be identified indirectly in a number of ways, such as:
Attributes: Using combinations of attributes such as
plan phase (development, execution or
postexecution), Commander in charge of plan execution,
approval date, and so on.</p>
          <p>Containment: Identifying related plans through
relations of containing or being contained within other
plans: the AOP (Air Operations Plan) is contained
within a specified Joint Campaign Plan, or conversely,
for a Campaign Plan that contains a specified AOP.
Assets: By relating a plan to the assets associated with
it during a given time frame, as when an AOP is
tasking Squadron X in some given week.</p>
          <p>Operational relation: For example, one plan precedes
or succeeds another as pre-condition or sequel. Or two
plans relate to each by having mutually dependent
executions.</p>
          <p>One or more of these methods could be used in the query to
identify the desired plan, requiring the query processor to apply
additional knowledge of plan attributes and relations to
properly parse the query to eventually locate the desired plan
and its area-of-operations.</p>
          <p>B. Ontology-driven queries</p>
          <p>
            The complexity and dynamic nature of relationships
between the plans and the involved information cannot be
adequately represented in non-semantic technologies (for
example in traditional databases). Moreover, direct traditional
querying of such representations will be difficult to automate
and maintain in the necessary flexible manner, and the results
of such querying may not be capable of the needed rapid
update to incorporate emerging important data. Our hypothesis,
therefore, which draws on the work described in [
            <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7 ref8">7,8</xref>
            ] is that a
comprehensive and incrementally evolving set of Living Plan
ontologies, drawing on the I2WD suite of ontologies (see
Figure 2) can provide the needed nuanced representation of the
plans, metrics, and of the semantics of the source data against
which the querying is performed, while taking account of
relationships between all of these components. Such an
approach will lay a foundation for sophisticated querying and
analytics enhanced by inference, and is designed above all, to
enable agile changes to all components. Additionally, the
ontology framework will have to include representations of
complicating factors such as those described below and their
relationships with the plans and metrics.
          </p>
          <p>C. Probabilistic ontological classifications</p>
          <p>One example complication concerns the identification of
the location constraint for those sites that are to be considered
because they lie within the area-of-operations. The problem
turns on the fact that there may be sites physically outside this
area that are identified as harboring capabilities that project
into the area-of-operations. This may imply an ambiguity at the
operational level. If the focus is on assessing the performance
of missions to disrupt or destroy sites physically within the
area-of-operations, then the metric should be interpreted in one
way. If, on the other hand, the intent of the metric is to assess
the security of aircraft within the area-of-operations, then the
better interpretation may extend the focus to include sites that
have an air defense capability that reaches into the
area-ofoperations from outside. In order to properly respond to a
query based on the latter interpretation, the system would need
to be able to infer such projection capabilities and perform
spatial reasoning to find substantial intersections with the
physical boundaries of the area-of-operations. Such capabilities
may depend on the type of missiles available, requiring further
information about specific missile capabilities and deployment.</p>
          <p>Another potential complication is bias in the identification
of individual sites for counting. For example, the adversary
might expend additional effort to hide remaining operational
sites rather than sites that may have already been degraded in
some way. Conversely, missile firings from operational sites
make them more difficult to hide. At the same time,
ownforces may not expend as much effort in identification and
counting of non-operational sites as those which still pose a
threat. In short, the process of identifying and counting sites
may be substantially different according to whether they are
operational or non-operational. To provide appropriate
measures of confidence in the associated metrics, the query
processor would have to know what sorts of biases to consider
and their relative magnitudes in terms of attributes such as
power projection capability, which will be defined in our
ontology framework.</p>
          <p>A likely more difficult counting complication would arise
from semantic assembly of information regarding the very
attribute of being operational as applied to sites. Whether a site
is operational may be difficult to determine for multiple
reasons. For example, if a site loses some part of its targeting
capacity but retains ability to launch, then it is operational as a
launch site, but without targeting it will pose little threat to
modern aircraft. The state of the site may also be
timedependent; for example, a site that is partially degraded could
be anticipated to be restored at some point in the future. Such
expectations would depend on the nature of the degradation
and the resources available to make repairs and restore
operation. At any particular time, the query processor would
have to combine operational state attributes based on reports
from different times and with varying levels of confidence
arising from uncertainty in expectations as to whether a site
will remain operational.</p>
          <p>Other complications might arise in classifying a site as
functioning or not functioning as an ‘anti-aircraft missile site’.
It is certainly possible that the raw intelligence information and
sensor data on which counts are made will not directly and
unambiguously classify a facility as an anti-aircraft missile site.
Instead, there may be reports of a more specific nature (for
example, that we are dealing with a specific type of missile
capability) which through interaction with weapons ontology
would be determined to qualify more generally as
‘antiaircraft’. On the other hand, some reports may refer only to a
‘missile site’, which would then require further inference to
determine if the site is likely to have a more specific type of
anti-aircraft capability. Such inferences generally require the
knowledge of type-subtype relations and the attributes on
which such classifications are based. For example, information
about a missile site supertype could be inferred to be also of the
anti-aircraft missile site subtype through examination of other
potentially known attributes, such as size and location of the
site, imagery features, connectivity to other assets, and so on.
Such information will be incorporated as probabilistic
functions into our ontology framework.</p>
          <p>D. Missing, inconsistent and other invalid data</p>
          <p>Considering the fog of war, some information will at any
given stage be incorrect, inconsistent, or missing. Barring
independent evidence to the contrary, incorrect information,
such as a site being reported as operational that is not, cannot
be rectified. However, when there are multiple reports in
conflict, it may be possible to reach a most likely conclusion. A
query processor that maintains, or has access to,
metainformation regarding the typical or historically-observed
believability of reports from various sources can combine
conflicting reports as weighted evidence to reach a most
believable conclusion. The needed provenance-related
will be incorporated into
our ontology
attributes, too,
framework.</p>
          <p>A conflict in evidence may be due to understandable
reasons, the simplest being that they were made at different
times in relation to something that is changing, such as the state
of a missile site. A more complex case would involve the
ability of different sources to provide substantial evidence at
different times or under different circumstances. For example,
prior to actually observing an anti-aircraft missile site launch a
weapon, a determination of its state of operation may be
difficult to establish. An intact-looking site might be
nonoperational for reasons that are not directly observable, such as
broken electronic or computer-based equipment. Under these
circumstances, direct observation might provide credible
evidence of non-operational status (the physical structure may
be visibly degraded or destroyed), without being able to
provide evidence of operational status. Intelligence reports
from intercepted communications would be a better source of
information under these circumstances, but only if they are to
be believed as genuine and not intentional misinformation. Of
course, direct observation of a successful missile launch at a
later point in time would over-rule any prior assertions about
the site’s state, but only until contravening reports are later
received indicating that its state may have changed, such as a
battle damage assessment that it was successfully struck and
destroyed at an even later point.</p>
          <p>Such issues, related to reports of the changing state of a
missile site, may be interpreted differently depending on the
purpose of the associated metric. If the intent is to assess
progress of given actions toward an operational objective of
reducing the risk of operations in a given airspace, then the
most important information is the conversion through those
actions of known operational sites into non-operational sites. In
that case, for example, it would be less important to know
which sites were non-operational for other reasons prior to the
start of the campaign. At the same time, the change in state of a
particular site would presumably be the effect of some action
taken, and such information would aid in the interpretation of
the action reports. For example, if the site were observed to be
launching missiles prior to a kinetic strike on the facility and
no launches were observed after the strike, it would be
reasonable to believe that the strike had its intended effect in
rendering the site non-operational. On the other hand, if the
metric is being used primarily to ascertain the relative risk of
operations in that airspace, then the numbers of operational and
non-operational sites prior to the campaign become important,
as well as the previously-discussed issue of sites being restored
to operation over time.</p>
          <p>In addition to incorrect and conflicting information, the
query processor must also deal with missing information. In
some circumstances reports may be available only for certain
time periods, or concerning certain types of information. For
example we may have reports on site location without state of
operation information, or only assertions of being operational
but not of being non-operational. Such differences in missing
information will add complexity to making a reliable estimate
of the ratio of operational to non-operational sites over a given
area of interest.</p>
          <p>CONCLUSION</p>
          <p>A generic planning process ontology that is based on
the Information Artifact Ontology and that takes into
account the cyclical process of planning.</p>
          <p>Ontologies containing representations of each of the
kinds of attributes and relations needed to identify
desired plans according to relevant
areas-ofoperations, assets, capabilities, and so forth.</p>
          <p>
            Additionally, the query processing component of any
planrelated computational framework that converts potentially
huge stores of plan-related expressions (data types, values,
natural language expressions), into user-oriented actionable
metrics needs to be aware not merely of the ontologies, but
also of the needed types of deductive transformations and, as
we showed above, of probabilistic classifications.
Materialized query processing tools will rely on the
principles set forth in [
            <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7 ref8">7, 8</xref>
            ] which are being used to integrate
diverse data in a variety of disciplines. The approach is
designed to achieve integration in an agile, flexible and
incremental way, and also to incorporate into our system the
ontology content created for related purposes by our
collaborators in different military domains and disciplines.
          </p>
        </sec>
      </sec>
    </sec>
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