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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>KPI-based Activity Planning for People Working in Flexible Processes</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Maikel L. van Eck ?</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Natalia Sidorova</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Wil M.P. van der Aalst</string-name>
          <email>w.m.p.v.d.aalstg@tue.nl</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Eindhoven University of Technology</institution>
          ,
          <country country="NL">The Netherlands</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>Planning human activities within business processes often happens based on the same methods and algorithms as are used in the area of manufacturing systems. However, human resources are more complex than machines. Their performance depends on a number of factors, including stress, personal preferences, etc. In this paper we describe an approach for planning activities of people that takes into account business rules and optimises the schedule with respect to one or more KPIs. Taking a task list, a set of rules or constraints and a KPI calculation model as input, we automatically create an executable model that captures all the possible scheduling scenarios. The state space of this executable model is explored to nd an optimal schedule.</p>
      </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>Introduction</title>
      <p>
        Scheduling is a well-known type of optimisation problem that occurs in many
di erent contexts, e.g. exible manufacturing systems, transportation and
personnel planning [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2 ref4 ref9">2, 4, 9</xref>
        ]. Scheduling problems exist in many variations, but often
a number of jobs or activities have to be performed by a set of resources while
obeying certain constraints. The goal is to divide the activities over the resources
and time so that their execution optimises one or more performance measures.
In general, scheduling is complex and NP-hard. Di erent approaches have been
developed to deal with this complexity, providing both exact optimal solutions
and heuristic approximations.
      </p>
      <p>
        An aspect that is often not taken into account when planning human
activities is that, unlike machines, human performance changes depending on a
number of factors [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ]. For example, when a person has too much stress, their
performance is decreased [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ]. By changing for example the lunch time, the
performance might be improved or deteriorated. Planning too many challenging
activities after each other can also in uence the performance.
      </p>
      <p>
        It has been shown that there are strong relations between work-related stress
and deterioration of productivity, absenteeism and employee turnover [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3 ref5">3, 5</xref>
        ].
Stress and the associated health issues are a big nancial burden for both
organisations and society in general, with the European Commission estimating the
total yearly nancial cost at e25 billion. Fortunately, new technological advances
? This research was performed in the context of the TU/e IMPULS project.
Activity CaseID
Problem Intake 1
Problem Intake 2
Repair Product 1
Repair Product 2
Break
Document Issue 1
Document Issue 2
and smart sensor technologies enable people to unobtrusively monitor their
personal stress levels and become more aware of sources of stress at work and stress
patterns [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ]. In this paper, we explore how the planning of daily activities can
be performed with the goal to better manage stress for the employees involved.
      </p>
      <p>As an example, Fig. 1 shows a scheduled workday for two employees
working in a hardware maintenance process, whose stress is being monitored. Both
employees have each been assigned to work on two cases, but the activities have
been scheduled di erently. John's schedule in Fig. 1a results in a shorter workday,
while Anna's schedule in Fig. 1b results in less stress. Which personal schedule
is better depends on the desired tradeo between time and stress. Of course, due
to the e ect of stress on performance, the last two activities in John's schedule
may actually take longer than usual, so this information also has to be taken
into account in the planning.</p>
      <p>In this paper we present an activity planning approach to nd optimal
schedules with respect to one or more key performance indicators (KPIs), e.g. stress
or workday length. We focus on exible environments, where planning can be
adjusted to people's needs.</p>
      <p>The structure of the rest of this paper is as follows: In Sect. 2 we explain
our planning approach. Then we discuss our rst implementation in Sect. 3 and
evaluate it in Sect. 4. Finally, in Sect. 5 we conclude the paper and state several
areas for future work.
2</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Conceptual Approach</title>
      <p>A graphical overview of our approach is shown in Fig. 2. We rst discuss the
input required and then we describe the approach itself.
2.1</p>
      <sec id="sec-2-1">
        <title>Required inputs</title>
        <p>We take a task list, the time period in which the activities should take place, a
constraint model and a KPI calculation model as input.</p>
        <p>The task list tells us what activities should be scheduled together with the
available resources to divide the activities over. Instead of listing planned
activities, the task list can also be extracted from a historical event log. This can be
Hardware Maintenance
(x4 cases, 8 hours)
• Problem Intake
• Repair Product
• Document Issue
Resources
• Anna
• John</p>
        <sec id="sec-2-1-1">
          <title>Task List</title>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-1-2">
          <title>Constraint Model</title>
          <p>If caseType = complex then
Repair Product before Document Issue
Stress  = Stress  − 1 +</p>
          <p>Effect(Activity  ,</p>
          <p>Stress( − 1))</p>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-1-3">
          <title>KPI Calculation Model</title>
          <p>1. Build
Executable
Model
2. Find
Optimal
Schedule</p>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-1-4">
          <title>Planning Approach</title>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-1-5">
          <title>Optimised Schedule</title>
          <p>done to see how to improve on a previous execution according to one or more
given KPIs. The task list de nes the size of the scheduling problem.</p>
          <p>
            The constraint model is a collection of rules that have to be upheld for a
schedule to be viable. They may describe the order in which activities are
executed, specify which people may do what activities, or impose other restrictions
on activity executions, e.g. an activity can only be done at a certain location or
time. An example of such a rule is \For complex cases, Repair Product has to
be done before Document Issue". Therefore, the schedule in Fig. 1b is only valid
if case 4 is a simple case. Rules can even specify that additional activities, not
mentioned in the task list, have to be executed. For example, if two activities
from the task list are scheduled to be executed sequentially by the same person
but at di erent locations, then that person will need to travel between the
locations. To specify which people may do what activities the constraint model can
de ne each employee's skills and the competencies needed for each activity [
            <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
            ].
The constraint model also speci es the durations of activities, which may vary
depending on di erent factors. Parameters such as stress levels may in uence
these durations and the constraint model can describe how, based on patterns
found by mining personal historical logs obtained with smart technologies [
            <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref8">1, 8</xref>
            ].
          </p>
          <p>
            The KPI calculation model de nes the quality metrics for schedules. It
speci es how the value of one or more speci c KPIs can be calculated for a given
(part of a) schedule. Examples of KPIs are the length of a working day of people
involved, the maximal stress level, and the stress level at the end of the working
day. If more than one KPI is speci ed then a tradeo needs to be made. This
can be done by giving each KPI an importance weight and normalising the KPI
values, or by constructing a Pareto front of schedules and allowing the end-user
to make the tradeo [
            <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
            ].
2.2
          </p>
        </sec>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-2">
        <title>Planning Approach</title>
        <p>The goal of the planning approach is to take the input described above to produce
an optimal schedule, or a set of optimal schedules. This approach should ideally
not require the end-user to have scheduling expertise or to provide additional
input.</p>
        <p>Simply generating all permutations of activities divided over time and
resources is not practically feasible because there are too many possibilities, while
most result in invalid schedules due to violated constraints. A common scheduling
technique is to use integer programming, which explores the solution space
without explicitly enumerating all possible schedules. However, setting up an integer
program is a complex task, especially because of history-dependent variables
such as the location of a person, stress level and stress-dependent performance.</p>
        <p>Therefore, we propose a planning approach consisting of two stages. First,
an executable model that generates valid schedules is automatically constructed
from the input described above. Second, this model is used to nd the optimal
schedule(s).</p>
        <p>
          This approach is similar to the ones in [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7 ref9">7, 9</xref>
          ] on scheduling in exible
manufacturing systems (FMS) and on compliance checking of interrelated compliance
rules. In [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
          ], an FMS is modelled as a Petri net (PN), after which a schedule
is generated by analysing the state space of the PN. However, the construction
of the PN is done manually and the FMS modelling constructs are not as
exible as the rules in the constraint model described above. In [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
          ], a compliance
checking framework is described where compliance rules are speci ed using a
formal language and the resulting constructs are translated to Coloured Petri
nets (CPNs) [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
          ]. A collection of such CPNs is then composed into one executable
model on which the compliance of a given sequence of activities with the rules
is checked. However, time is not explicitly modelled and activities that occur in
multiple rules occur multiple times in the composed CPN, so it is not possible
to use the composed CPN to generate activity schedules.
3
        </p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Approach Implementation</title>
      <p>
        We have created a preliminary implementation of the proposed activity planning
approach as a plug-in in the process mining tool ProM [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
        ]. In this section we
discuss how we construct the executable model, speci ed as a CPN, and how
the state space of the executable model is explored to nd the optimal schedule.
3.1
      </p>
      <sec id="sec-3-1">
        <title>Building an Executable Model</title>
        <p>The executable model is created by combining the inputs described in Sect. 2.
It represents the search space of schedules, which is then the input for nding
the optimal schedule. To create an executable model, the rules of the constraint
model have to be combined and translated to the representation of the executable
model.</p>
        <p>
          There are many di erent ways to express rules or constraints in constraint
models [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref7">7, 10</xref>
          ] We can describe rules in a natural language or use formalisms
like LTL. It is also possible to use process models that precisely de ne what is
or is not allowed when executing relevant activities [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
          ]. These models can be
(a) Problem Intake occurs before Repair (b) If the caseType is Complex, then Repair
Product &amp; Document Issue. Product occurs before Document Issue.
constructed either by hand or mined from event data related to the involved
processes. Another option is to represent each rule as a pattern in a process
modelling language, as a mix between creating one big model and describing
each rule using a formal rule language.
        </p>
        <p>We choose to model the individual rules of the constraint model as CPNs.
One reason for this choice is that CPNs are expressive, but single rules are easier
to model than entire processes. Another reason is that CPNs provide us directly
with executable models, so we only need to combine them. Two examples of
constraints modelled as CPNs are shown in Fig. 3. Activities can be supplied
with guards that restrict the conditions relevant to the activity execution, e.g.
caseType referring to the complexity of a case. When combing rules and creating
the schedules we also take into account these guards.</p>
        <p>
          Combining the rules in the constraint model is done using an adapted form of
the synchronous product de ned for PNs [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
          ]. The adapted synchronous product
matches activities by name and then merges not only their dependencies and
relations, but also their guards. Guards are merged by taking the conjunction of
the guards of the merged activities. Initially, the task list is used to create a basic
PN that can execute all required activities exactly as often as needed, which is
then sequentially composed with each rule using the synchronous product. The
executable model obtained after this step is enhanced with the modelling of
resources and time. This results in a single executable model that captures all
the rules from the constraint model, as shown by Fig. 4
        </p>
        <p>In our implementation we choose to merge the KPI calculation model with
the executable model. Each KPI is tracked separately and their value is updated
upon each activity execution. This makes measuring the KPI explicit, even for
partial schedules, which helps when nding an optimal schedule. However, the
main reason for merging the KPI calculation is that some KPIs, like stress, need
to be modelled anyway because they a ect the duration of activities.
3.2</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-2">
        <title>Finding an Optimal Schedule</title>
        <p>
          The state space of the executable model described above contains all valid
schedules as a nal state. The state space is nite, due to the limitation on the number
of activities that need to be scheduled as well as the bound on the available time
to schedule them in. Therefore, one way to nd the optimal schedule is to use
existing state space exploration techniques to nd all nal states or deadlocks [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
          ].
        </p>
        <p>Due to the explicit tracking of KPIs and time in each state of the
executable model, both constructing a schedule and nding the optimal schedule are
straightforward. Given a set of nal states, the optimal schedule is the one with
the best KPI score or the best tradeo between KPIs, shown to the user e.g. by
creating a Pareto front. Constructing the schedule for a state means traversing
the explored state space back to the initial state and recording which activities
were executed at what time.
4</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Evaluation</title>
      <p>We have performed a limited experimental evaluation for the implementation of
our approach. A stress monitoring scenario was created, where two employees
work at two possible locations on a simple hardware maintenance process. A
model explaining the e ect of executing activities on the stress of the employees
was assumed to be known. Our implementation automatically combined the
business rules of the scenario, modelled as CPNs, and scheduled a number of
activities, searching for a good tradeo between stress levels and working time.
Two versions of the scenario were tested, one where activity duration did not
depend on the stress level and one where stress levels a ected performance.</p>
      <p>The experimental results are shown in Fig. 5. It is clear from Fig. 5a and
Fig. 5b that the number of possible schedules increases exponentially with an
increasing number of activities to plan. This also means that the time needed
to explore the state space increases exponentially and it quickly reaches a point
where the optimal schedule cannot be found within reasonable time. However,
it should be noted that the current state space exploration implementation is
Nr. of cases Shortest Nr. of valid Computation
(activities) work time schedules time
1 (3) 3 hours 18 0.5 min.
2 (6) 6 hours 160 12.5 min.
3 (9) 7.5 hours 1001 8 hours
4 (12) ? ? 24 hours
(a) Planning results with uniform activity
durations. The shortest work time is the
smallest possible workday length in which
all activities can be executed.</p>
      <p>Nr. of cases Shortest Nr. of valid Computation
(activities) work time schedules time
1 (3) 3 hours 18 0.5 min.
2 (6) 6 hours 130 12 min.
3 (9) 9 hours 396 7 hours
4 (12) ? ? 24 hours</p>
      <p>(c) The Pareto front of optimal schedules
(b) Planning results when the e ects of with 3 cases. The shaded solutions are only
stress on performance are considered. valid with uniform activity durations.
not very e cient. Another observation is that considering the e ects of stress on
performance imposes additional restrictions on the solutions, so the state space
is smaller and the number of valid schedules is reduced. This also means that
the computational complexity of nding the optimal schedule is lower.</p>
      <p>Fig. 5c contains a Pareto front of optimal schedules when planning 3 cases.
The Pareto front shows that a tradeo can be made in terms of dividing the
work over the available people, as well as the available time. Performing the
required work in less time causes higher stress levels. The shaded points indicate
schedules that are infeasible if the e ect of stress on performance is considered.
5</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Conclusion</title>
      <p>In this paper we have described an activity planning approach that can nd
an optimal schedule with respect to one or more KPIs. The approach takes a
task list, a set of rules or constraints, and a KPI calculation model to create an
executable model that can generate schedules. The state space of this executable
model is explored to nd an optimal schedule.</p>
      <p>Unfortunately, evaluation has shown that the current implementation is not
suitable for practical purposes. The implementation allows for a lot of freedom in
the types of constraints that can be speci ed and it can automatically construct
an executable model out of these constraints. However, exploring the state space
of the resulting executable model is very expensive. Due to the large number
of possible ways to schedule activities, the state space becomes too big to
explore. There are still multiple areas of future work that can make the suggested
approach suitable for practical purposes.</p>
      <p>One direction of future work is the use of heuristics during the state space
exploration. As the stress of people is highly variable and dependent on many
factors, it is di cult to model and predict. Searching for an optimal schedule on
a awed stress model will probably not result in an optimal schedule in practice,
so a focus on nding good instead of optimal schedules may be more suitable.
The use of state space reduction techniques could also speed up the exploration.</p>
      <p>Another direction of future work is the use of a di erent method to nd the
optimal schedule. The executable model represents the space of valid schedules,
and it might be more e cient to translate this model to a di erent formalism,
e.g. a constraint program. While de ning a constraint program directly might
be error-prone and challenging, the translation is possible, and would enable the
use of many optimisation techniques that exist in constraint programming.</p>
      <p>Additionally, more research is needed on learning personalised models that
predict people's stress in practical situations and how that a ects performance.</p>
    </sec>
  </body>
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