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<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Exploring Trial-level Reliability of Short-term Memory Effects in Immediate Serial Recall</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Winston D. Goh (psygohw@nus.edu.sg)</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Department of Psychology, National University of Singapore 9</institution>
          <addr-line>Arts Link</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="SG">Singapore</country>
          <addr-line>117570</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="SG">Singapore</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <fpage>140</fpage>
      <lpage>145</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>The within-participant reliability of three short-term memory effects - the word length effect, the semantic similarity effect, and the phonological neighbourhood effect - in immediate serial recall was explored using two existing datasets. This was done to address the question of the extent to which individual participants consistently showed the effects across trials, even when the effects were robust at the group-level data. Split-half reliability coefficients were surprisingly low, suggesting that the effects for individual participants were not particularly stable across the experiments. These findings call for more systematic investigations into the extent to which memory effects are reliable across participants.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>Reliability</kwd>
        <kwd>immediate serial recall</kwd>
        <kwd>short-term memory</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>Introduction</title>
      <p>
        The short-term memory literature has reported a number of
effects that has been well replicated, such as the
phonological similarity effect
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">(Conrad, 1964)</xref>
        – lists of
dissimilar sounding words are better recalled than lists of
similar sound words; the word length effect
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">(Baddeley,
Thomson, &amp; Buchanan, 1975)</xref>
        – lists of short words are
better recalled than lists of long words; and effects of
semantic similarity
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">(Poirier &amp; Saint-Aubin, 1995)</xref>
        – lists of
related words are better recalled than lists of unrelated
words.
      </p>
      <p>All of these studies have relied on group-level data to
infer differences in performance across the various
experimental conditions. For example, in the word length
effect, an index of how well participants perform in a
memory task using short words is obtained by collapsing or
averaging scores across all participants in the short word
condition. This is then compared statistically with an index
of performance for long words by similarly collapsing the
scores across participants in the long word condition. A
difference in mean performance across the two conditions is
then taken as evidence of an effect of the experimental
manipulation, word length in this case, on memory
performance.</p>
      <p>An implication of using mean differences is that theories
of memory processes based on observed experimental
effects are then built on the assumption of a “prototypical”
or “average” human processor. There is nothing inherently
wrong with this, given that averaging across participants
takes into account variability in the magnitude of the effect
across individual participants. Some participants would
show a bigger or smaller word length effect than others, but
to the extent that aggregated data exhibit this difference
across replications of the phenomena, theorists are confident
that the observed effects are robust and useful in theorising
about the underlying memory mechanisms.</p>
      <p>One question, however, that has not been asked as often is
the extent to which the same participant would show the
same effect within and across experimental sessions. In
other words, is the measure of the memory effect stable?
This, of course, is the issue of the reliability of a measure or
dependent variable.</p>
      <p>Reliability refers to the extent to which a measure remains
stable and consistent. In the domain of psychometrics and
psychological testing, reliability of measurement scales and
indices are routinely established. Two common ways in
which this is established are using test-retest reliability – the
extent to which the measure remains consistent across time
– and split-half reliability – the extent to which items within
the test are internally consistent. Extrapolating this to the
memory domain, this would be asking to what extent
participants would show the same magnitude of the effect,
e.g. the difference in recall between short and long words.
Test-retest reliability can be measured across different
sessions of the same experiment, using different sets of
stimuli that have been equated on various properties except
for the experimental manipulation (this may be more
synonymous with the concept of alternate form reliability in
the psychometric domain). Split-half reliability can be
measured by examining the extent to which performance on
one half of a single session is similar to the other half (split
according to odd and even numbered trials).</p>
      <p>
        Test-retest reliability of the word length and phonological
similarity effects in an immediate memory span task was
examined by Logie, Della Sala, Laiacona, Chalmers, and
Wynn (1996) in their Experiment 2. Mean span
performance was tested on 40 participants one year apart
using the same materials for each testing. Surprisingly, the
correlations between the effect sizes of both phenomena at
the two time points were very poor, ranging between -.31
and .09
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">(in the psychometric domain, correlations of above
.8 are typically desired [Anastasi, 1990, pp. 115])</xref>
        . These
results were obtained even though the group-level data
replicated both memory effects. It was suggested that the
lack of reliability could reflect variable strategies that
participants used during the memory span task.
      </p>
      <p>
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">Logie et al. (1996)</xref>
        were only able to report test-retest
reliabilities as the dependent measure was memory span for
the experimentally manipulated word lists, which was not
amenable to split-half reliability measures that index the
internal consistency of performance within a session, i.e. do
people consistently recall short words better than long
words across all items and trials? A fixed-length procedure
rather than variable lengths that is inherent in the memory
span procedure is more amenable to measures indexing the
performance between odd and even trials within a session.
To the extent that participants switch between strategies
across trials, and if this influences the magnitude of the
memory effect, one should be able to observe this in the
trial-level reliability measures.
      </p>
      <p>
        While trial-level reliability has not been examined within
the memory domain, some researchers in the word
recognition field have started asking this question. Stolz,
Besner, and Carr (2005) showed that semantic priming
effects have surprisingly low within-participant reliabilities.
The semantic priming effect refers to the phenomenon
where response times in a lexical decision task, where
participants make word versus nonword decisions on a
target stimulus, is influenced by whether a preceding prime
word is related (e.g. dog) or unrelated (e.g. pen) to the target
word (e.g. cat). The difference in latencies between the
related and unrelated conditions is the priming effect.
While this effect is robust and very well documented, it
appears that within participants, it is much less stable when
assessed for both test-retest and split-half reliability with
correlations below .4, sometimes even near zero. The low
to moderate reliabilities for semantic priming has recently
been replicated by Yap, Hutchinson, and Tan (in press).
However, it appears that measures of some of the effects
found for isolated word recognition paradigms, e.g. lexical
decision without primes or speeded pronunciations to
visually presented target words, are more reliable, with
correlations above .4
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">(Yap, Balota, Sibley, &amp; Ratcliff,
2012)</xref>
        . These tend to be for the effects of structural features
such as number of letters, syllables, and morphemes,
whereas network type features such as neighbourhood size
(both orthographic and phonological) and semantic
neighbourhood density have low to zero correlations.
      </p>
      <p>The implications of these observations for theories of
word recognition are beyond the scope of this article.
However, the question as to whether there is
withinparticipant reliability for memory phenomena remains
unanswered and deserves exploration, given that the field
has typically relied on the analysis of group-level data. Do
participants show memory effects consistently? This paper
reports analyses of two of the present author’s past research
for which the within-subjects experimental designs facilitate
the investigation of split-half reliabilities of the short-term
memory effects that were observed.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Analysis 1: The Word Length Effect</title>
      <p>Data were taken from Goh and Goh (2006), who examined
the interaction between semantic similarity and the word
length effect in a 2 (length) x 3 (similarity) x 8 (trial) design.
The fully-within subjects design in Experiment 1 was
amenable to reliability analyses. Each of the eight trials
within one condition comprised 5-word lists where
participants had to recall the words in the order they were
presented. The two word length conditions comprised short
(mostly monosyllabic) and long (mostly trisyllabic) words.
The similarity factor comprised three conditions:
homogeneous block (where all 8 trials of 5-word lists were
from a single category), homogeneous list (where the 5
words in a list were from the same category, but categories
changed across lists), and heterogeneous (where all 5 words
in a list were from different categories). The six conditions
formed by crossing the length and similarity factors were
run as blocks in the original study, i.e. all eight trials in one
condition were run in one block before moving to the next
condition, with counterbalancing done across subjects. The
word lists were visually presented.</p>
      <p>To assess word-length effects, only the trials from the
heterogeneous conditions were examined, since this is the
typical manipulation in other word length studies that did
not include a semantic similarity independent variable. The
data from 50 introductory psychology students who
participated for course credit were included.</p>
      <p>Figure 1 shows serial recall performance split into the odd
and even numbered trials. A within subjects analysis of
variance (ANOVA) revealed a main effect of length,
F(1,49) = 34.56, MSe = .02, p &lt;.001, showing the standard
word length effect where short words are remembered better
than long words. Neither the main effect of half nor the
interaction were significant, Fs &lt; 1, indicating that the word
length effect generalised across the odd and even halves of
the data.</p>
      <p>Odd</p>
      <p>Even</p>
      <p>Split Half</p>
      <p>
        Following the logic reported in the word recognition
literature
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref13">(Stolz et al., 2005; Yap et al., 2012)</xref>
        , the difference
scores between the short and long words were then
computed for each participant for each of the halves. These
difference scores were effectively indices of the degree of
the word length effect for each participant. The odd and
even difference scores were then correlated to obtain the
split-half reliability. Figure 2 shows the scatterplot of these
difference scores for each participant. If participants
exhibited similar magnitudes of the word length effect
across the two halves of the experimental session, and hence
consistency in the effect, a relatively high correlation should
be obtained. The observed correlation was .24, p = .098.
      </p>
      <p>Discussion of this finding is deferred to the Discussion
section.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Analysis 2: The Semantic Similarity Effect</title>
      <p>Data were also taken from Goh and Goh (2006). In line
with previous studies on the semantic similarity effect, only
the data from the homogeneous list and heterogeneous
conditions were examined, since that corresponded to the
related versus unrelated conditions in studies looking at
effects of semantic similarity. The homogeneous block
condition in the original study served a different purpose.</p>
      <p>Because short and long words were run as blocks in each
of the semantic similarity conditions, the effects of semantic
similarity were assessed separately for the short and long
words to determine if both showed an advantage of semantic
similarity. The data from 50 introductory psychology
students who participated for course credit were again
included as in Analysis 1.</p>
      <p>Figure 3 shows serial recall performance split into the odd
and even numbered trials for the short words. A within
subjects ANOVA revealed a main effect of semantic
similarity, F(1,49) = 6.12, MSe = .01, p &lt;.05, showing the
standard semantic similarity effect where related words are
remembered better than unrelated words. Neither the main
effect of half nor the interaction were significant, Fs &lt; 1,
indicating that the semantic similarity effect for short words
generalised across the odd and even halves of the data.</p>
      <p>The difference scores between the homogeneous and
heterogeneous conditions were then computed for each
participant for each of the halves. These were then
correlated to obtain the split-half reliability in order to
determine if participants exhibited consistency of the
semantic similarity effect across the two halves of the
experimental session. Figure 4 shows the scatterplot of
these difference scores for each participant. The observed
correlation was -.04, p = .77.</p>
      <p>Figure 5 shows serial recall performance split into the odd
and even numbered trials for the long words. A within
subjects ANOVA revealed a main effect of semantic
similarity, F(1,49) = 35.31, MSe = .02, p &lt;.001, showing the
standard semantic similarity effect where related words are
remembered better than unrelated words. Neither the main
effect of half nor the interaction were significant, Fs &lt; 1.24,
1
iiltyb 00..98
a 0.7
ob 0.6
llrcP 00..54
eR 00..23
0.1
0
Related
Unrelated
indicating that the semantic similarity effect for long words
generalised across the odd and even halves of the data.</p>
      <p>The difference scores between the homogeneous and
heterogeneous conditions were then computed for each
participant for each of the halves. These were then
correlated to obtain the split-half reliability in order to
determine if participants exhibited consistency of the
semantic similarity effect across the two halves of the
experimental session. Figure 6 shows the scatterplot of
these difference scores for each participant. The observed
correlation was .26, p = .073.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Analysis 3: The Phonological Neighbourhood</title>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Effect</title>
      <p>Data were taken from Experiment 2 of Goh and Pisoni
(2003), who examined whether immediate serial recall was
affected by phonological neighbourhood properties. These
include neighbourhood density – the number of words that
could be formed from the target word by adding, deleting or
substituting a single phoneme – and neighbourhood
frequency – the average word frequency of the target word’s
neighbours. The two word type conditions comprised
lexically “easy” words that had low neighbourhood density
and low neighbourhood frequency, so that the target words
tend to be more distinctive relative to their neighbours; and
lexically “hard” words that had high neighbourhood density
and high neighbourhood frequency, so that the target words
tend to be swamped by their neighbours. There was also a
Sampling condition (repeated versus non-repeated) that was
run between subjects for a separate purpose. The observed
effect was that “easy” words were better recalled than
“hard” words in the non-repeated sampling condition.</p>
      <p>Only trials from the non-repeated sampling condition,
where all words were sampled without replacement, was
used. Each of the 11 trials within each word type condition
comprised 6-word lists where participants had to recall the
words in the order they were presented. The word lists were
auditorily presented.</p>
      <p>Figure 7 shows serial recall performance split into the odd
and even numbered trials. A within subjects ANOVA
revealed a main effect of word type, F(1,17) = 40.48, MSe =
.01, p &lt;.001, showing that “easy” words are remembered
better than “hard” words. Neither the main effect of half
nor the interaction were significant, Fs &lt; 1, indicating that
the phonological neighbourhood effect generalised across
the odd and even halves of the data.</p>
      <p>Odd</p>
      <p>Even</p>
      <p>Split Half</p>
      <p>The difference scores between the “easy” and “hard”
conditions were then computed for each participant for each
of the halves. These were then correlated to obtain the
splithalf reliability in order to determine if participants exhibited
consistency of the phonological neighbourhood effect across
the two halves of the experimental session. Figure 8 shows
the scatterplot of these difference scores for each
participant. The observed correlation was .103, p = .69.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>Discussion</title>
      <p>
        These exploratory analyses of existing data sets revealed
that the observed memory effects were all robust across the
split halves for the group-level data – the half factor did not
modulate the main effect of interest in all analyses.
However, the same cannot be said for within participant
reliability. The split-half correlation coefficients obtained
were all less than .3, suggesting that the effect for
participants was not particularly stable. It should be noted
that the magnitude of the coefficients were comparable to
some of those observed in the visual word recognition
studies cited earlier. For the word length effect in Analysis
1, the coefficient of .24 is higher than Logie et al.’s (1996)
reported value of -.02 for word length with visual
presentation. Although the tasks were different, in that Goh
and Goh (2006) used a fixed-length immediate serial recall
taks, but
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">Logie et al. (1996)</xref>
        used a memory span procedure,
the current finding essentially replicated the low reliability
observed in the earlier study.
      </p>
      <p>The surprisingly low reliabilities suggest that more
systematic investigations ought to be conducted to
determine the extent to which this is a phenomenon in these
memory effects. The present analyses are limited by the
designs of the original studies which were motivated by
other research questions. Experiments specifically targeting
the reliability issue would include two blocks of different
but equated stimuli to facilitate the investigation of
testretest reliability. More trials would also be needed,
compared to the 8-11 in the present data sets. Future studies
should also be extended to other memory tasks beyond
short-term memory that may be amenable to item level
analyses, such as recognition paradigms in the long-term
memory domain.</p>
      <p>
        The issue of reliability is important as it speaks to the
extent to which cognitive effects are stable within
participants. It has been suggested that more automatic
processes such semantic spreading activation
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">(Posner &amp;
Synder, 1976; Stolz et al., 2005; Yap et al., in press)</xref>
        may
show more consistency within participants, but tasks
susceptible to attentional control and strategic processes
may be more variable. Certainly, the strategies participants
may adopt with immediate serial recall tasks
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">(Logie et al.,
1996)</xref>
        would fall into the latter category. To what extent,
therefore, are short-term memory effects influenced by
automatic versus controlled processes?
      </p>
      <p>
        Besides priming effects and other visual word recognition
effects reported earlier, it has also been shown that the
classic Stroop effect is not reliable in terms of test-retest
reliability
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">(Lowe &amp; Rabbit, 1998)</xref>
        . The stability of these
effects is particularly important if researchers intend to
investigate whether individual differences in these effects
are associated with other individual differences measures.
For example, in the false memory literature, some
researchers have investigated the extent to which working
memory capacity influences the degree of false recognition
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12 ref7">(e.g. Peters, Jelicic, Verbeek, &amp; Merckelbach, 2007;
Watson, Bunting, Poole, &amp; Conway, 2005)</xref>
        . Working
memory measures such as forward and backward digit
spans, and complex memory spans
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11 ref4">(e.g. Daneman &amp;
Carpenter, 1980; Turner &amp; Engle, 1989)</xref>
        may have
established reliabilities, but whether the false recognition
indices or measures of other memory effects are also
reliable are seldom established. Low reliabilities would
inherently limit the extent to which these indices could
correlate with other indices, and may lead to erroneous
conclusions about the relationship between these effects and
other individual differences measures.
      </p>
      <p>In summary, the main goal of the present explorations
was to determine if some of the short-term memory effects
found in past research using the immediate serial recall task
were reliable within participants, as indexed by split-half
coefficients. The analyses indicate little to weak
reliabilities, although the group-level effects were very
robust. These findings call for further, dedicated
investigations into the extent to which memory phenomena
across other tasks and domains are reliable.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-7">
      <title>Acknowledgments</title>
      <p>This work was supported by Research Grant
R-581-000159-101 to WDG.</p>
    </sec>
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