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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Modeling the Creation and Development of Cause-E ect Pairs for Explanation Generation in a Cognitive Architecture</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>John Licato</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Nick Marton</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">3</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Boning Dong</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">3</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Ron Sun</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Selmer Bringsjord</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">3</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Analogical Constructivism and Reasoning Lab, ACoRL</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>Indiana University/Purdue University - Fort Wayne Fort Wayne</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>IN</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="US">USA</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2">
          <label>2</label>
          <institution>Rensselaer AI and Reasoning (RAIR) Lab</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff3">
          <label>3</label>
          <institution>Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>RPI</addr-line>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>The ability to generate explanations of perceived events and of one's own actions is of central importance to how we make sense of the world. When modeling explanation generation, one common tactic used by cognitive systems is to construct a linkage of previously created causee ect pairs. But where do such cause-e ect pairs come from in the rst place, and how can they be created automatically by cognitive systems? In this paper, we discuss the development of causal representations in children, by analyzing the literature surrounding a Piagetian experiment, and show how the conditions making cause-e ect pair creation possible can start to be modeled using a combination of feature-extraction techniques and the structured knowledge representation in the hybrid cognitive architecture CLARION. We create a task in PAGI World for learning causality, and make this task available for download.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>Explanation</kwd>
        <kwd>Cognitive Architecture</kwd>
        <kwd>CLARION</kwd>
        <kwd>Analogy</kwd>
        <kwd>Causality</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>
        Faced with some unfamiliar event, an agent1 will attempt to make sense of it
by constructing an explanation, even if the explanation that ultimately gets
accepted is not entirely coherent. Generating explanations is also important to
arti cial cognitive systems, particularly those that need to communicate with
other humans, for example, to present rationales for its own actions.
1 In this paper, `agent' will refer to any actor (arti cial or natural) capable of cognitive
thought, `cognitive system' will refer to any system that attempts to model cognitive
phenomena, and `cognitive architecture' will refer to full cognitive systems (such as
CLARION) satisfying the de nition of cognitive systems in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref20">20</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        Previous work (e.g., [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14 ref6 ref9">6, 9, 14</xref>
        ]) modeled the generation of explanations by
using structured representations of cause-e ect pairs. In an extremely simple
case, explaining some explanandum e involves nding a cause-e ect pair (c; e),
where c is either believed to be true by the reasoner or plausible to the reasoner
in some sense. More complicated explanations can be generated by collecting
a sequence of cause-e ect pairs and lining them up to produce a causal chain
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ], by drawing from multiple source analogs simultaneously [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8 ref9">8, 9</xref>
        ], or a number
of other possible approaches. But these approaches all seem to presuppose the
existence of cause-e ect pairs, and little is done in the way of actually modeling
how the initial cause-e ect pairings are initially created.
      </p>
      <p>In this paper, we attempt to understand how the sort of cause-e ect pairs that
are used in explanation generation can be created in an autonomous agent, in a
psychologically plausible way. Section 2 reviews some literature on the emergence
of causality in children, focusing on a classical Piagetian experiment we will call
the oating task. We then describe a task, implemented in the simulation
environment PAGI World, for testing abilities that underly the autonomous creation
of cause-e ect pairs, along with an algorithm to perform this task, implemented
in the cognitive architecture CLARION (Section 3). Section 4 discusses future
work and concludes.
2</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>The Development of Causality</title>
      <p>If we are to understand how cause-e ect pairs can be created automatically by
a cognitive system, it would be very helpful to understand how the ability to
reason causally develops in humans. We will start with a particularly relevant
Piagetian experiment.
2.1</p>
      <sec id="sec-2-1">
        <title>The Piagetian Floating Task</title>
        <p>In one of Jean Piaget's early works, The Child's Conception of Physical
Causality, Piaget introduced a task to elicit clues from children as to how they generate
explanations. In what we will refer to here as the oating task, Piaget presents
a series of objects to a child (e.g., a wooden boat, a pin, a pebble, and so on)
and asks the child to predict whether or not the object (the candidate oating
object) would oat. The child makes his prediction, explaining his or her
reasoning when possible, and then the object is placed in the water. The child watches
whether or not his prediction was correct, and then is asked to explain why the
object did or did not oat.</p>
        <p>Piaget found that the responses given by children seemed to be roughly
categorizable into four stages. These stages are to be seen as continuously changing
behavioral phenomena, meant to describe general trends noticed in subjects'
explanations. In the rst stage, explanations are characterized by \animistic and
moral reasons," e.g. a boat will oat \because they must always lie on the
water," or a piece of glass will sink \because it's not allowed to put glass on the
water" [17, p.136]. Piaget described stage-1 explanations as moral because they
seemed to him to imply a sense of social obligation on the part of the inanimate
objects, as opposed to adherence to some natural law.</p>
        <p>In the second stage, starting at about 5 years of age, we see the appearance
of dynamism, or the invocation of an abstract force in explanations. Children
explain that boats oat because they're heavy, big, or because the \water is
strong." However, they apply their explanations in inconsistent or contradictory
ways. Compare this to the third stage (starting at about 5 or 6 years), where
children instead tend to use the explanation that boats are light, rather than
heavy. The di erence here, according to Piaget, is subtle but important: oating
is no longer explained by an appeal to a simple property of the candidate oating
object. Rather, the lake \produces an upward- owing current which sustains the
lighter [ oating] body." In other words, oating is understood to be a property
that emerges out of an interaction necessitated by both properties of the lake
and properties of the candidate oating object.</p>
        <p>Finally, in the fourth stage (starting at about age 9, but parts of which are
seen as early as ages 6{8), we start to see reasoning taking into account multiple
properties of an object simultaneously. By referring to the hollow-ness of the
boat, for example, children relate the boat's volume to its weight. Furthermore,
whereas in stage 3 properties of the candidate oating object like light-ness or
heavy-ness are no longer regarded by the child to be absolute, internal properties.
Instead, they are seen as properties that only hold relative to something else (in
this case a corresponding volume of water).
2.2</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-2">
        <title>Why Piaget?</title>
        <p>
          Piaget's work is extremely voluminous, spanning almost 60 years, and careful
scholars have noted evolutions in Piaget's thought that at times puts the younger
Piaget against the older [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
          ]. In part because Piaget's writings are so spread out
over so many books, many of his concepts, which he re ned in his later years,
are subject to misinterpretations of the highest order. For some corrections of
misunderstandings of Piagetian concepts, see [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12 ref15 ref4">4, 15, 12</xref>
          ].
        </p>
        <p>
          For example, the description of stages that we reiterated in Section 2.1 is
exemplary of the type of stage-based development that critics are quick to claim
is virtually useless, since the scienti c consensus is that \cognitive changes are
gradual and cumulative" [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
          ]. Contrary to such claims, however, Piaget was very
aware of the limitations of using stages in describing children's behavior:
\[S]tages must of course be taken only for what they are worth. It is
convenient for the purposes of exposition to divide the children up in
ageclasses or stages, but the facts present themselves as a continuum which
cannot be cut up into sections. This continuum, moreover, is not linear in
character, and its general direction can only be observed by schematizing
the material and ignoring the minor oscillations which render it in nitely
complicated in detail" [18, p.17].
        </p>
        <p>That being said, it is not the goal of this paper to mount a full-scale defense
of the Piagetian body of literature. Although it cannot be denied that some of
Piaget's theories are incompatible with, and need to be re ned by, more recent
work in developmental psychology, let it su ce to point out that the critics of
Piaget are overzealous in indiscriminately discarding the entirety of his work,
especially the almost 60 years of qualitative observations of children's behavior.
Even if one were to ignore all of Piaget's proposed explanations for developmental
mechanisms, his observations remain a fertile ground for cognitive modelers, as
they provide at the very least a set of expected behaviors of children of di erent
ages when faced with very speci c tasks. We described some of these behaviors
in Section 2.1, and the current paper intends to model them.
3</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Modeling the Development of Cause-E</title>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Representation in CLARION ect</title>
      <p>
        The CLARION cognitive architecture [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref19">19</xref>
        ] is divided into four subsystems: the
action-centered, non-action-centered, meta-cognitive, and motivational subystems.
Each of these is split into explicit and implicit components, thus enabling the
deliberative processes associated with localist representations to work in
parallel with the automatic processes associated with distributed representations.
This dual-process approach to modeling cognition has been shown to be
capable of modeling a variety of behavioral phenomena in psychologically plausible
ways. For example, [22] implemented similarity-based and rule-based reasoning
in the non-action-centered subsystem (NACS for short). Building on these
processes, [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13</xref>
        ] showed that structured knowledge, and thus primitive deductive and
analogical reasoning, can also be modeled in the NACS. And building on the
structures of [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13</xref>
        ], the authors demonstrated a high-level approach to generating
explanations of varying quality in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        The present paper can be considered another in that sequence. As
mentioned earlier, the previous model of explanation [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ] used cause-e ect pairs,
implemented as template structures (a particular type of organization of localist
chunks in the explicit level of the NACS). But where do these cause-e ect pairs
come from? One way, suggested by the performance of the younger children in
Piaget's oating task, is known as feature selection. Given a set of features of the
object under consideration, the child will somehow select some subset of these
features (in the case of stage-1 children, a subset consisting of a single feature)
and hypothesize that the presence of this particular feature is the cause of the
phenomena under observation ( oating or sinking). In CLARION, feature
selection comes naturally out of the operations of a backpropagation network built
into CLARION [21].
      </p>
      <p>
        In CLARION's NACS, localist chunks corresponding to outputs can be placed
on the top level, and microfeatures corresponding to inputs and hidden nodes
can be placed on the bottom level. In Section 3.2, we set up the NACS in this
way, and apply a feature selection algorithm to the oating task. First, we turn
to a description of our computational simulation of the oating task.
PAGI World [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12 ref16 ref2">2, 16, 12</xref>
        ] is a simulation environment for the evaluation and
development of AGI and cognitive systems. PAGI World is built in Unity, allowing
for execution on all major operating systems. It is built on Unity's 2D physics
engine, so that mass, volume, velocity, texture, temperature, etc., can be
experienced by the AI actor in a realistic way. The AI actor (a ball-shaped creature
with two hands, who we sometimes refer to as `PAGI guy') is controlled by a
script that can be written by researchers in any programming language that
supports TCP/IP. The information sent between the controller script and PAGI
World is mostly low-level: PAGI World sends information from its visual,
tactile, and other sensors (including some medium-level data such as object names),
while the controller script can send commands to apply a force vector to PAGI
guy's body and hands to control it.
      </p>
      <p>PAGI World is easy to learn and use, thanks to design choices that we hope
will encourage researchers to make use of PAGI World. Because it can be run on
almost any operating system and controlled using almost any programming
language, PAGI World provides a platform for cognitive architectures of all types
(particularly those which claim to be general-purpose) to compare their
performance on the exact same tasks.</p>
      <p>Piagetian experiments are somewhat di cult to model computationally for
two important reasons: First, they often rely on objects that need to move in a
physically realistic way, and it is nontrivial for researchers to program su ciently
realistic simulations for every model they create; second, assessing agents in
Piagetian experiments makes heavy use of explanatory dialogue, that is, the
experimenter must be able to ask questions about the task and the subject must
be able to answer them. Although this second di culty is one that is still beyond
the reach of AI researchers, the rst di culty is handled quite nicely by PAGI
World, since PAGI World has the ability to simulate water and create objects
that oat or do not oat in it.</p>
      <p>Thus, for all of the reasons discussed above, PAGI World is an ideal choice
for hosting the Piagetian oating task. In our implementation, PAGI guy is
positioned below a tank of water. An object with a randomly generated volume
and weight is created, and appears in the middle of the tank, where it then either
oats to the top, sinks to the bottom, or stays relatively motionless (Figure 1).
After a few seconds, this object disappears and the process repeats. This allows
PAGI guy to collect data about what it observes, so that we can later ask
questions.
In this section we demonstrate that a simple feature selection algorithm can be
implemented in CLARION, by using a network that takes in low-level
microfeatures and outputs a prediction as to whether an object will oat, sink, or
remain stationary. Feature selection is an inherent property of backpropagation,
in the sense that as backpropagation updates weights, certain nodes (which can
correspond to features) will have higher weights connected to them than others.</p>
      <p>CLARION is designed to work with low-level distributed networks that can
be trained with backpropagation. We started by creating a network consisting
of ve inputs, all microfeatures in the bottom level of CLARION's NACS: mass,
volume, and three microfeatures for color (red, green, blue). Each input can
be activated by a value between 1 and 255. Three outputs are created, each of
them implemented as a chunk in the top level of the NACS: oat, sink, and
stationary. We also create ve additional microfeatures h1; :::; h5, to serve as the
hidden layer of the network.</p>
      <p>Feature selection proceeds as follows. We collected sensory data from
instances of the oating task in PAGI World, where an object of randomized color,
mass, and weight appears in the middle of the tank and oats, sinks, or remains
stationary. Each instance of an object appearing in the oating task is recorded
and called an example. The input features are then individually isolated; that
is, we only activate one feature at a time, allow the activation to propagate up
to the hidden microfeatures (h1; :::; h5), and further up to the output chunks,
and the output chunk with the highest activation is taken to be the `prediction'
of this particular instance. We repeat this for n examples; weights are updated
using backpropagation after every example. One successful run-through of all n
examples is called an epoch. We then execute another epoch, runing through the
same n examples again.</p>
      <p>After e epochs, we evaluate the average error on the same n examples that the
network was trained on. Note that this di ers greatly from standard
machinelearning practice: generally a test data set is used that is non-overlapping with
the training data set. However, we are not necessarily interested in getting the
correct prediction; we are interested in modeling the reasoning of the child in a
way that is psychologically plausible. It is psychologically plausible that a child
would use a limited set of examples from his memory to validate hypotheses or
features, and it is less plausible that a child would run through a set of thousands
of training examples rst.</p>
      <p>In any case, the evaluation of error on the n examples gives us an error rate
for the feature that was isolated. We can then repeat this entire process with
the other features, obtaining an error rate for each feature. The feature that
had the lowest error rate is taken to be the winner of this iteration. (Originally,
we also recorded the feature that had the second-lowest error rate, but because
the results were so overwhelmingly in favor of mass and volume (a color-related
feature was selected less than once per 1000 iterations), we only present the data
here for the lowest error rate.) The feature-selection algorithm is laid out in a
more convenient form in Algorithm 1.</p>
      <p>The iterations were repeated 1000 times per experiment. We carried out this
experiment six times, for three di erent values of n (n 2 f5; 10; 20g) and two
di erent values of e (e 2 f2; 20g). Figure 2 shows the value of n on the x-axis,
and the number of times (out of 1000 iterations) some particular feature was
chosen as having the lowest error rate on the y-axis.</p>
      <p>The values of n we chose for each experiment were intentionally very small.
It seems implausible that children carrying out the oating experiment would
actually be trained using hundreds of instances before they output their
predictions. Therefore, we kept n very low in order to see what results emerged. As it
turns out, the results match our intuitions: using our feature-selection algorithm
settles extremely quickly on either the mass or volume features, and the only
growth we see as n and e are increased is a slowly growing gap between the
amount of times mass is chosen and the amount of times volume is chosen (a
gap which was larger for 20 epochs than it was for 2 epochs).</p>
      <p>The fact that even tiny values of n and e identify mass and volume as the most
relevant features is consistent with the idea that, in line with Piaget's suspicions,
the growth allowing the more complex explanations of stage-2 and later reasoning
is a growth in the complexity of the representations themselves|that is, new
nodes (corresponding to new concepts) might be created to represent abstract
ideas such as density, water-current, and higher-level features constructed out of
the lower-level ones used in our experiments.
4</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Future Work and Conclusion</title>
      <p>
        This paper presents a task designed to closely model the Piagetian oating task,
and then shows how the behaviors of stage-1 children can be explained as feature
selection over simple representations in the CLARION cognitive architecture.
Future work will attempt to explain the sequence of behaviors shown by Piaget
in the oating task. For example, the ability to consider multiple properties at
once (which appears in stage-3 children) may be explained using a template
structure designed to group properties together. Likewise, the shift from
singleplace predicates to relations seen in stage 4 might be explained by a stabilization
of the property groupings and the emergence of two-place predicates (a similar
strategy is used in the DORA model [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ]).
      </p>
      <p>
        Another series of tasks, highly relevant to the study of the development of
causality in children, may be interesting to examine using the model developed in
this paper. These are the series of \collision" tasks [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref11">10, 11</xref>
        ], in which infants can
identify when some basic notions of physical causality are violated. When shown
two objects that are about to collide, but one of them unexpectedly changes
direction or stops before the collision is supposed to have taken place, infants
will stare at the anomalously behaving object longer than they would at objects
colliding normally. We have already started creating this task in PAGI World
and hope to show that the present model can match the performance of human
children closely.
      </p>
      <p>
        The backpropagation used in this paper for feature selection is one of many
ways CLARION can select features. In the future, as we tackle more complex
tasks, we can make use of, e.g., principal component analysis (PCA) or sparse
autoencoders [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>Causality, of course, is an immensely complex and well-studied topic, and
early steps such as those taken in this paper can only hope to scratch the
surface. Future work will expand the philosophical, psychological, and historical
perspectives on the notion of causality and how it relates to explanation
generation.2
5</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>Acknowledgements</title>
      <p>This work was funded by O ce of Naval Research (ONR) grant number N000141310342.
2 The oating task presented in this paper is available for download, along with PAGI
World, at the website:
We encourage researchers to test their particular cognitive architectures or systems
on this and other tasks, and report their results.
genre=article\&amp;doi=10.1080/0951508042000286721\&amp;magic=crossref|
|D404A21C5BB053405B1A640AFFD44AE3
21. Sun, R., Peterson, T.: Autonomous Learning of Sequential Tasks: Experiments
and Analyses. IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks 9(6), 1217{1234 (November
1998)
22. Sun, R., Zhang, X.: Accounting for Similarity-Based Reasoning within a
Cognitive Architecture. In: Proceedings of the 26th Annual Conference of the Cognitive
Science Society. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates (2004)</p>
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