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      <title-group>
        <article-title>Data-Driven Programmatic Change at Universities: What works and how</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Jim Greer</string-name>
          <email>Jim.greer@usask.ca</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Ryan Banow</string-name>
          <email>Ryan.banow@usask.ca</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Craig Thompson</string-name>
          <email>Craig.thompson@usask.ca</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Stephanie Frost</string-name>
          <email>Stephanie.frost@usask.ca</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>University of Saskatchewan</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>In this paper, we present some of our recent experiences with a data visualization tool and offer some use cases where the visualization tool can potentially drive programmatic change in universities. The Ribbon Tool provides an interactive visualization of student flows through academic programs, progressing over time to either successful completion (graduation) or attrition. Through effective use of the Ribbon Tool by those who can effect curriculum change, their ability to generate persuasive arguments for change are enhanced. This paper presents some use cases and commentary on actual usage of the Ribbon Tool to call for programmatic change across a university.</p>
      </abstract>
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    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. INTRODUCTION</title>
      <p>Academics pride themselves on evidence-informed decision
making, but when it comes to making changes in their teaching
practices, curricula, or academic programs, data and evidence
seem to hold little sway. Perhaps this stems from the belief that as
an expert in a subject area, one is automatically an expert in how,
where, and what of the subject area should be taught. Perhaps this
stems from the outdated “mini-me” assumption that students are
either faculty in training or destined for attrition. Or, or perhaps it
stems from the discipline-based belief that teaching practices,
curricula and academic programs were carved in stone tablets by
the ancestors and never meant to change.</p>
      <p>Instigating change in university programs is difficult, in part
because it is easy to throw sand in the wheels of change, but also
in part because the agents of change and the influencers are rarely
the same people. Sadly, evidence-informed arguments to justify
changes in teaching or curriculum often have no more persuasive
effect, or perhaps even less effect, than anecdotal stories about “in
my day”, or “my son or daughter experienced”. While skepticism
can be healthy when evaluating evidence gathered from others’
observations and statistical analysis, it can also be used to
stonewall or stymie change.</p>
      <p>Confronting academics and administrators with cold facts, such as
“One third of your students from certain diversity groups are
leaving your program within the first two years” or “One quarter
of your students are failing their required first mathematics
course” are met with retorts like “Tell me something I haven’t
heard before!” or “Bring me some evidence that is actionable!”.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>2. DATA-DRIVEN VISUALIZATIONS</title>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>WITH THE RIBBON TOOL</title>
      <p>
        A data visualization tool called the “Ribbon Tool” has been
developed at UC Davis (http://t4eba.com/ribbon/) building upon
the Sankey Diagram functionality with the Data-Driven
Documents (D3) data visualization library [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ]. This tool has been
utilized for visualizing student flows through academic programs
in universities, with groups of students represented as coloured
ribbons as they move from admission to graduation or attrition.
An example of a Ribbon screenshot is shown in Figure 1.
Vertical bars within the tool indicate the status of students in a
particular year and term of an academic program. The ribbons
that flow from bar to bar correspond to the number of students
moving from state to state. For example, in Figure 2, the three
bars indicate September snapshots in 2011, 2014 and 2015. The
red ribbons show numbers of students who began in Engineering
in September 2011 and continued tracking them as they move
forward in time.
      </p>
      <p>In the Ribbon Tool, a “mouse-over” in the diagram will reveal a
text box showing the number of students in a particular ribbon.
The textboxes in Figure 2 show that of the 351 students who
began in Engineering in the fall of 2011, some 240 were still
enrolled in the fall of 2014. Another 33 students had transferred
in from Arts and Science. Some students had transferred out of
Engineering, to Arts and Science or another faculty. Some had
dropped out of the University, and a few were on a “stop-out”.
By fall 2015 (after 4 years), one can see that 88 students had
graduated with an Engineering degree. A few others had degrees
in other faculties and 177 were still enrolled for their 5th year.
Note that a substantial number of Engineering students complete a
one-year paid internship, which naturally extends the degree to a
minimum 5-year duration.</p>
      <p>The vertical bars represent a hierarchy of temporal information.
In the above example, the top level of the hierarchy represents
whether students were enrolled, had been granted a degree, or had
left the institution. In the next level, we show the college or
school in which they had been enrolled (or had granted them a
degree or from which they left or stopped-out). If one were to drill
down to a third level, the data shows the department (Electrical,
Mechanical, Civil, etc.) where the student is enrolled or awarded a
degree. Expanding or collapsing the hierarchy gives a more or less
refined view. The interactive visualization allows the user to
isolate a particular group in the hierarchy (for example students
who were enrolled in Mechanical Engineering in 2014) and
project backward to see where they came from and forward to see
where they went next. Moving through the hierarchy and
isolating views allows the user to focus in on areas of potential
interest.</p>
      <p>Along with the visualization, the user is provided a set of filters.
For example, if one were interested in examining gender
differences in student flows through Engineering, one could filter
to obtain separate diagrams for female and male students. These
can be quickly visually compared to see if proportions of degrees
granted, attrition, time to graduation, departmental breakdowns
are impacted by gender. Other filters based on any set of
categorical demographic or academic characteristics can be added.
For example, the program flow-through for female students
entering Engineering directly from high school with SAT scores
in the top decile can be examined with a few mouse clicks.
This flexible and powerful visualization tool has been used
extensively at UC Davis and is now being disseminated to other
universities through the “Tools for Evidence-Based Action (TEA)
Community” [3], funded in part by the Helmsley Foundation. The
Ribbon Tool has been greeted with great enthusiasm by deans and
other administrators at our University as a tool to augment their
other data analysis efforts and as a means to explore elements of
their academic programs.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>3. POPULATING THE RIBBON TOOL</title>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>WITH DATA</title>
      <p>The Ribbon Tool requires two chunks of data, a set of filter
values and a data hierarchy. There can be an arbitrary number of
filter variables, each with a label and a set of nominal values. The
data hierarchy can have an arbitrary depth and at each level of the
hierarchy a value must exist for each student. The branching
factor at each level of the hierarchy must be fixed in terms of its
subcategory options. Each student represented in the visualization
must have a full set of values corresponding to the filter variables.
Further each student must have a value for each level in the
hierarchy. Data can be imported into the Ribbon Tool from either
a pair of csv files or from a JSON file.</p>
      <p>In the datasets we have prepared for our institution, students are
not individually identified, other than by a sequential index. As a
result, the data held in Ribbon, although hosted in the Amazon
Cloud, has low risk of abuse. Nevertheless, efforts are underway
to offer a local data storage option for some universities hesitant
to store even de-identified student data off-site.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>4. SOME USE CASES AND EXPERIENCES</title>
      <p>We have been using the Ribbon Tool at the University of
Saskatchewan for only a few months now. During that time the
tool has been further enhanced in its capabilities and features and
improving in its reliability and robustness, thanks to the
development team at UC Davis. Below are some use cases that
have proven useful in our experience to date.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-7">
      <title>4.1 Examining Degree Completion and Time to Graduation</title>
      <p>Timely degree completion is a key component of enrolment
management. For example, university funding is often associated
with 6-year completion rates in undergraduate programs.
Students stuck in a program for an extended time can reduce the
number of available spaces in critical courses, and can face
compounded delays due to rigid, prerequisite-bound course
sequences.</p>
      <p>Using the Ribbon Tool it is easy to see degree completion times
and to determine the number of students in a cohort who are
completing degrees within 6 years or who are embarking on a 7th
or 8th year. Furthermore, it is possible, using filters to see if the
students failing to complete within 6 years have had stop outs,
academic probation actions, internships, etc. It is possible to
differentiate completion rates for students with different
demographic factors, such as first-in-family (first-generation)
students, international students, under-represented minority
students, etc. It is possible to display student GPAs within the
hierarchy to determine if students slow to graduate have or have
not reached certain academic achievement levels.</p>
      <p>The combination of filters and hierarchy refinements has
permitted our Engineering School to discover some new insights
and bottlenecks regarding time to graduation.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-8">
      <title>4.2 Retention and Attrition</title>
      <p>Analyzing student attrition and retention factors is an interest
in some parts of every university. Universities focused on broad
access in Arts and Sciences are often faced with retention
challenges. Students unprepared for the change in culture of
university life and those with academic deficiencies are not the
only students who sometimes leave the institution. Established
retention risk factors such as lower socio-economic status, being a
first-generation student, being a member of an under-represented
minority all need to be considered. But when comparing different
academic programs, such as Engineering and the Humanities,
there may be different factors leading to attrition. For example,
belief in the benefit of completing a university degree may be a
factor in some areas whereas the rigor of completing the degree
may be a factor in others [4].</p>
      <p>We have used the Ribbon Tool to track attrition and to
differentiate students moving to a different program versus
stopouts versus drop-outs. Furthermore in areas where there are
various entry points into programs, it is possible to examine
retention factors for students who have entered through different
paths. In doing a retention analysis with Ribbon, demographic
filter variables corresponding to expected causes of retention can
be quickly examined to see which factors or combinations of
factors seem to make a difference. Being able to isolate a
particular collection of students (e.g. those who drop out after
sophomore year in a program) to further investigate their
demographic makeup and their pathways has proven useful.
Ribbon can also be used to determine whether the flow of students
through academic programs has been affected by changes in
demographics of entering students, whether as a result of changes
to the feeder system or changes in admission policies.
The Ribbon Tool has enabled our Engineering School as well as
our Faculty of Arts and Sciences to study retention issues (in
STEM and elsewhere) more closely and to get a better
understanding of attrition patterns, particularly of
underrepresented minority students.</p>
      <p>As academic programs evolve and as new learner supports
are introduced there is a need for ongoing program monitoring
and evaluation. The Ribbon Tool provides a mechanism for
supporting the early phase of program evaluation through its rapid
means of detecting differences across cohorts of students. For
example, it is easy to compare student flows before and after the
implementation of some program change. It is also possible to
differentiate with a filter those students who were selected for
participation in a pilot program and further to filter those who did
or did not engage.</p>
      <p>We have begun to explore the impact of changes to our academic
advising processes, the introduction of a freshman learning
communities program, and the impact of increased academic
support services in mathematics and writing. In such programs,
where the macro effects may take many years to be realized,
where effects may be differential across the different student
demographics, and where levels of participation and engagement
are vital indicators, the Ribbon Tool is helping us to us develop
and refine program-impact hypotheses that can then be tested
statistically.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-9">
      <title>5. ACTIONABLE DECISIONS</title>
      <p>Of course, all of these kinds of comparisons and descriptions
presented in the use-cases above can be achieved with a
comprehensive set of reports, bar charts or tables or with the facile
use of a statistics package. The difference with the Ribbon Tool
is the speed with which one can mock up a scenario and try
different filters and breakdowns to get an impression of where
problems may be lurking or where impact may be seen.
Furthermore, with the Ribbon Tool, an Associate Dean or
Department Chair can take the reins and drive the visualization
tool to explore exactly what is interesting - to follow a hunch or to
confirm or deny a commonly held view.</p>
      <p>Putting a powerful visualization tool in the hands of agents of
change can empower them to make more persuasive cases for
change with their colleagues. We have seen how visualizations
that show scenarios with no perceptible difference, when
conventional wisdom would predict a difference, does help people
to confront and question their biases. These are precisely the
kinds of evidence that can change minds, and actionable decisions
arise from changed minds.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-10">
      <title>6. CONCLUSION</title>
      <p>Our experiences with the Ribbon Tool confirm that
visualizations of student progression can be highly informative
and powerfully persuasive in moving administrative staff to
action. Uncovering the factors affiliated with undesired outcomes
and discovering those connected with positive outcomes sets the
stage for change.</p>
      <p>The Ribbon Tool is one tool that can help with moving people to
action, but like any tool it has its limitations. It is best suited for
analyzing historical patterns and flows and is not well suited for
forecasting or modeling the future effects of potential changes. It
is also a tool that readily looks over relatively longer time scales
we have not yet produced data to explore a more granular time
scale. Finally, like any other tool, it can be mis-used to
oversimplify relationships or to mis-represent realities. Just as
with any power tool, much persuasive power is placed in the
hands of the tool operator.
[3] Tools for Evidence-Based Action (TEA) Community
(http://t4eba.com).</p>
    </sec>
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</article>