<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Archiving and Interchange DTD v1.0 20120330//EN" "JATS-archivearticle1.dtd">
<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Sequence Matters, But How Do I Discover How? Towards a Workflow for Evaluating Activity Sequences from Data</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Shayan Doroudi</string-name>
          <email>shayand@cs.cmu.edu</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Kenneth Holstein</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Vincent Aleven</string-name>
          <email>aleven@cs.cmu.edu</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Emma Brunskill</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Computer Science Department</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Human-Computer Interaction Institute</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Carnegie Mellon University</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date>
        <year>1972</year>
      </pub-date>
      <abstract>
        <p>How should a wide variety of educational activities be sequenced in order to maximize student learning? We recently proposed the Sequencing Constraint Violation Analysis (SCOVA) method to help address this question. In this paper, we propose how SCOVA could be transformed into a workflow in LearnSphere so that other researchers and practitioners can find answers to the aforementioned question in their own datasets. We hope that such a workflow will lead to more and better research into this important question, as well as interesting new findings for both the educational data mining and learning sciences communities.</p>
      </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. INTRODUCTION</title>
      <p>
        How to sequence educational activities is an important
pedagogical question [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">12</xref>
        ]. Much of the existing work on
sequencing activities consists of theoretical analyses [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref3 ref6">2, 4, 7</xref>
        ] and
empirical studies [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref12 ref4">1, 13, 5, 11</xref>
        ]. While empirical studies can help
address questions that compare two or three different ways to
sequence a curriculum (e.g., whether topics should be blocked or
interleaved), it cannot effectively scale to analyzing the myriad of
potential sequences that could be considered. However,
educational data mining (EDM) techniques can enable one to
simultaneously study different types of sequences based on past
data. We recently proposed one such method—Sequencing
Constraint Violation Analysis (SCOVA)—for comparing the
efficacy of different sequencing constraints given a dataset that is
rich in the variety of sequences it explores [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">3</xref>
        ]. SCOVA can be
used to analyze a wide variety of sequencing constraints, such as
prerequisite relationships, constraints on when different learning
mechanisms should be introduced, blocking, interleaving, and
spiraling. SCOVA can both be used to better understand how
problems should be sequenced in specific learning environments,
including intelligent tutoring systems (ITSs), as well as to find
some generalizable trends that may inform the learning sciences
literature (e.g., on whether blocking or interleaving is more
effective or in what order learning mechanisms should be
supported). SCOVA can also be used to inform the creation of
adaptive policies for ITSs. However, SCOVA will most likely not
be used for any of these purposes if it just remains in a paper that
a few researchers might, at best, read and cite. Rather, its benefit
will likely only outlive the confines of a one-off EDM paper if it
is released as a workflow on a platform like LearnSphere that is
used by researchers and practitioners. If released as such a
workflow, SCOVA can also introduce researchers who may not
have otherwise considered the question of how activities should
be sequenced in their learning environments to find a newfound
interest in this area, which we believe is becoming increasingly
important to both the learning sciences and educational data
mining communities.
2.
2.1
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>WORKFLOW</title>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Data Inputs</title>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>METHOD</title>
      <p>
        SCOVA is applicable to datasets with substantial variability in the
types of activity sequences that students complete. This variability
is typical of many datasets, including ones that include
randomness in how problems were presented to students (e.g.,
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">9</xref>
        ]), ones where adaptive policies were used for problem selection
resulting in sequences that vary from student to student (e.g.,
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">10</xref>
        ]), and ones where students are able to do choose which
problems to work on themselves (e.g., [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">8</xref>
        ]). The workflow can
work with datasets in the PSLC DataShop format. Given that
SCOVA is a very general-purpose method, which can be used to
analyze how a wide variety of sequencing constraints impact
potentially different measures of student performance (e.g.,
within-tutor performance, posttest scores, learning gains, time on
task, etc.), it may potentially need to utilize a variety of the
columns in a DataShop dataset. However, for simplicity we will
describe a version of SCOVA that is limited to analyzing
sequencing constraints that may only depend on within-tutor
correctness and properties of the activities presented to students
and can only measure the impact with respect to within-tutor
performance and functions of pretest and posttest scores (such as
learning gains).
      </p>
      <sec id="sec-4-1">
        <title>In full, SCOVA needs three input files:</title>
        <p>1. The DataShop transaction-level file. For every step in a
transaction-level dataset, SCOVA needs to know the
problem name and whether the step was answered
correctly or not.
2.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-2">
        <title>A mapping of every problem name to categories to</title>
        <p>
          which the problem belongs. For example, when using
SCOVA on our fractions ITS [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">3</xref>
          ], we labeled each
problem with one of three topic labels (making and
naming fractions, fraction equivalence and ordering,
and fraction addition) as well as one of three activity
types corresponding to learning mechanisms from the
Knowledge-Learning-Instruction (KLI) framework
(sense-making, induction and refinement, and
fluencybuilding) [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">6</xref>
          ]. These category labels will then be used as
the building blocks of sequencing constraints, as
explained in Section 2.2.
        </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-3">
        <title>A file that gives the pretest and posttest score for each student.</title>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>2.2 Workflow Model</title>
      <p>The workflow begins with the researcher selecting different sets
of sequencing constraints that they want to analyze. Each
sequencing constraint can be selected by first choosing a category
(e.g., topics or activity type) and then selecting a pattern that
corresponds to the sequencing constraint. The pattern can take on
one of three forms:</p>
      <sec id="sec-5-1">
        <title>Specifying a particular sequence (e.g., ABCABCABC, which may correspond to interleaving different activity types or topics).</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-2">
        <title>Specifying that a student should be exposed to a</title>
        <p>problem with label A before a problem of label B (e.g.,
a student should be shown a number line problem
before being shown a fraction equivalence problem)</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-3">
        <title>Specifying that a student should have reached some</title>
        <p>
          performance threshold on a problem with label A before
a problem with label B (e.g., a student should have 95%
accuracy on fraction equivalence problems before being
exposed to fraction addition)
The researcher can select as many sequencing constraints of the
three forms above. Then for each possible permutation of category
labels (e.g., A = fraction equivalence, B = fraction addition, C =
naming fractions), SCOVA computes a score for how well each
student’s sequence in the dataset matches the given sequencing
constraints. The score is the proportion of problems in the
trajectory where a sequencing constraint was violated. SCOVA
then learns a linear regression model that uses the degree to which
a student violates a particular set of sequencing constraints to
predict some chosen outcome variable (i.e., some measure of
within-tutor performance or some function of the posttest and
pretest scores). Notice that if the model has a negative correlation
then that implies the more a student obeys a particular sequencing
constraint, the better that student learns/performs in the tutoring
system, i.e. negative correlations are indicative of beneficial
sequencing constraints. The final step of SCOVA is to compare
the model fits for different sets of sequencing constraints to guide
the practitioner/researcher to which sequencing constraints have
the largest positive impact on student learning. For more details
on the method and particular instantiations of sequencing
constraints, refer to [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">3</xref>
          ].
        </p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>2.3 Workflow Outputs</title>
      <p>
        The primary output is a table of BIC values of models for every
set of sequencing constraints evaluated. The practitioner can
choose from a set of options how they want the table organized.
For example, if we were evaluating the impact of constraints of
the form topic A should come before topic B, which should come
before topic C in tandem with constraints of the form activity type
X should come before activity type Y, which should come before
activity type Z, this could be represented in a 6-by-6 table where
the rows correspond to the different permutations over topics and
the columns correspond to the different permutations over activity
types. (If there was a third category of interest with three different
labels, such as say whether the difficulty level of the problem was
easy, medium, or hard, then the workflow could display six
different tables, one for each permutation of difficulty levels.) For
an example of such a table, see Table 3 in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">3</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>In addition to showing BIC values, the table will highlight those
cells where the violation of sequencing constraints correlates
negatively with performance/learning (again an indicator that the
sequencing constraint is beneficial for students rather than
harmful), and will designate the model with the lowest BIC (i.e.,
the best-fitting model).</p>
      <p>There will also be a toggle to display other quantities of
importance in place of BIC, such as the coefficients of the
predictors in the models. In the case of evaluating sequencing
constraints over a single category (e.g., only how activity types
should be sequenced), the user can choose to display the scatter
plots used to fit each model and the best-fit lines themselves. The
user can also choose to color-code each point of the scatter plots
with the value of some feature (e.g., how many problems that
student received). This color-coding of the plots can help identify
potential confounds (e.g., students who do more problems might
tend to violate fewer of a sequencing constraint and also do better
simply because they did more problems).</p>
      <p>
        Finally, the workflow will allow doing exploratory analyses to
detect other potential confounds. For example, if the sequences in
the data were generated according to adaptive policies, one
potential confound is that a student’s performance affects the
degree to which sequencing constraints are violated in addition to
the intended causal direction of the degree to which a sequencing
constraint is violated influencing the student’s performance. To
analyze the presence of such a confound, models can be learned
where the outcome variable is the student’s pretest score (rather
than say posttest score); since the pretest score comes before the
students’ use of the tutor, we know that the only reason it would
correlate with violations of certain sequencing constraints is if the
adaptive policies discriminated between students with different
amounts of prior knowledge. In using SCOVA on our fractions
tutor, we found that while this reverse causal direction did exist, it
was seemingly negligible and actually biasing against the
conclusions that our results support [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">3</xref>
        ]. Such a workflow should
allow users the ability to do exploratory analyses before making
firm conclusions using SCOVA.
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-7">
      <title>3. DISCUSSION</title>
      <p>Having a workflow for analyzing the impact of different
sequencing constraints can have a number of benefits for both the
EDM and learning science communities. SCOVA can both be
used to better understand how problems should be sequenced in
specific learning environments, as well as to find some
generalizable trends that may inform the learning sciences
literature (e.g., on whether blocking or interleaving is more
effective or how learning mechanisms should be sequenced).
SCOVA can also be used to inform the creation of adaptive
policies for ITSs. However, for SCOVA to be used in such a
fashion, it will likely have to be readily available as a workflow
on a platform like LearnSphere that is used by researchers and
practitioners. Additionally, by having such a workflow on
LearnSphere, more researchers may be attracted to the question of
how to sequence problems in their learning environment of
interest.</p>
      <p>
        Furthermore, if LearnSphere also includes workflows for other
methods of analyzing sequencing constraints such as [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">9</xref>
        ], more
research can be done in comparing these methods. Currently when
such a method is published it is not widely adopted either in
practice or by other researchers, and it is not compared to methods
that succeed it. By putting all methods that do similar styles of
analyses on one platform, LearnSphere can lead to more
productive research, including hopefully better ways of
understanding how we should sequence educational activities in
different learning environments.
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-8">
      <title>4. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS</title>
      <p>The research reported here was supported by the Institute of
Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education, through
Grants R305A130215 and R305B150008 to Carnegie Mellon
University. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and
do not represent views of the Institute or the U.S. Dept. of
Education.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-9">
      <title>5. REFERENCES</title>
    </sec>
  </body>
  <back>
    <ref-list>
      <ref id="ref1">
        <mixed-citation>
          [2]
          <string-name>
            <given-names>R. E.</given-names>
            <surname>Clark</surname>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <string-name>
            <given-names>D.</given-names>
            <surname>Feldon</surname>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <string-name>
            <surname>J. J. van Merri</surname>
          </string-name>
          ̈enboer, K. Yates, and
          <string-name>
            <given-names>S.</given-names>
            <surname>Early</surname>
          </string-name>
          .
          <article-title>Cognitive task analysis</article-title>
          .
          <source>Handbook of research on educational communications and technology</source>
          ,
          <volume>3</volume>
          :
          <fpage>577</fpage>
          -
          <lpage>593</lpage>
          ,
          <year>2008</year>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref2">
        <mixed-citation>
          [3]
          <string-name>
            <given-names>S.</given-names>
            <surname>Doroudi</surname>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <string-name>
            <given-names>K.</given-names>
            <surname>Holstein</surname>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <string-name>
            <given-names>V.</given-names>
            <surname>Aleven</surname>
          </string-name>
          , and
          <string-name>
            <given-names>E. Brunskill. Sequence</given-names>
            <surname>Matters</surname>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <article-title>But How Exactly? A Method for Evaluating Activity Sequences from Data</article-title>
          .
          <source>In EDM</source>
          ,
          <year>2016</year>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref3">
        <mixed-citation>
          [4]
          <string-name>
            <given-names>J.-C.</given-names>
            <surname>Falmagne</surname>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <string-name>
            <given-names>M.</given-names>
            <surname>Koppen</surname>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <string-name>
            <given-names>M.</given-names>
            <surname>Villano</surname>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <string-name>
            <given-names>J.-P.</given-names>
            <surname>Doignon</surname>
          </string-name>
          , and
          <string-name>
            <given-names>L.</given-names>
            <surname>Johannesen</surname>
          </string-name>
          .
          <article-title>Introduction to knowledge spaces: How to build, test, and search them</article-title>
          .
          <source>Psychological Review</source>
          ,
          <volume>97</volume>
          (
          <issue>2</issue>
          ):
          <fpage>201</fpage>
          ,
          <year>1990</year>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref4">
        <mixed-citation>
          [5]
          <string-name>
            <given-names>S.</given-names>
            <surname>Kalyuga</surname>
          </string-name>
          .
          <article-title>Expertise reversal effect and its implications for learner-tailored instruction</article-title>
          .
          <source>Educational Psychology Review</source>
          ,
          <volume>19</volume>
          (
          <issue>4</issue>
          ):
          <fpage>509</fpage>
          -
          <lpage>539</lpage>
          ,
          <year>2007</year>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref5">
        <mixed-citation>
          [6]
          <string-name>
            <given-names>K.</given-names>
            <surname>Koedinger</surname>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <string-name>
            <given-names>A.</given-names>
            <surname>Corbett</surname>
          </string-name>
          , and
          <string-name>
            <given-names>C.</given-names>
            <surname>Perfetti</surname>
          </string-name>
          .
          <article-title>The KnowledgeLearning-Instruction framework: Bridging the sciencepractice chasm to enhance robust student learning</article-title>
          .
          <source>Cognitive Science</source>
          ,
          <volume>36</volume>
          (
          <issue>5</issue>
          ):
          <fpage>757</fpage>
          -
          <lpage>798</lpage>
          ,
          <year>2012</year>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref6">
        <mixed-citation>
          [7]
          <string-name>
            <given-names>K.</given-names>
            <surname>Korossy</surname>
          </string-name>
          .
          <article-title>Modeling knowledge as competence and performance. Knowledge spaces: Theories, empirical research, and applications</article-title>
          , pages
          <fpage>103</fpage>
          -
          <lpage>132</lpage>
          ,
          <year>1999</year>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref7">
        <mixed-citation>
          [8]
          <string-name>
            <given-names>Y.</given-names>
            <surname>Long</surname>
          </string-name>
          and
          <string-name>
            <given-names>V.</given-names>
            <surname>Aleven</surname>
          </string-name>
          .
          <article-title>Supporting students' self-regulated learning with an open learner model in a linear equation tutor</article-title>
          .
          <source>In AIED</source>
          ,
          <year>2013</year>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref8">
        <mixed-citation>
          [9]
          <string-name>
            <given-names>Z. A.</given-names>
            <surname>Pardos</surname>
          </string-name>
          and
          <string-name>
            <given-names>N. T.</given-names>
            <surname>Heffernan</surname>
          </string-name>
          .
          <article-title>Determining the significance of item order in randomized problem sets</article-title>
          .
          <year>2009</year>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref9">
        <mixed-citation>
          [10]
          <string-name>
            <given-names>M. A.</given-names>
            <surname>Rau</surname>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <string-name>
            <given-names>V.</given-names>
            <surname>Aleven</surname>
          </string-name>
          , and
          <string-name>
            <given-names>N.</given-names>
            <surname>Rummel</surname>
          </string-name>
          .
          <article-title>Complementary effects of sense-making and fluency-building support for connection making: A matter of sequence? In AIED,</article-title>
          <year>2013</year>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref10">
        <mixed-citation>
          [11]
          <string-name>
            <given-names>A.</given-names>
            <surname>Renkl</surname>
          </string-name>
          and
          <string-name>
            <given-names>R. K.</given-names>
            <surname>Atkinson</surname>
          </string-name>
          .
          <article-title>Structuring the transition from example study to problem solving in cognitive skill acquisition: A cognitive load perspective</article-title>
          .
          <source>Educational psychologist</source>
          ,
          <volume>38</volume>
          (
          <issue>1</issue>
          ):
          <fpage>15</fpage>
          -
          <lpage>22</lpage>
          ,
          <year>2003</year>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref11">
        <mixed-citation>
          [12]
          <string-name>
            <given-names>F. E.</given-names>
            <surname>Ritter</surname>
          </string-name>
          ,
          <string-name>
            <given-names>J.</given-names>
            <surname>Nerb</surname>
          </string-name>
          , E. Lehtinen, and
          <string-name>
            <surname>T. M.</surname>
          </string-name>
          <article-title>O'Shea, editors. In order to learn: how the sequence of topics influences learning</article-title>
          . Oxford University Press,
          <year>2007</year>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
      <ref id="ref12">
        <mixed-citation>
          [13]
          <string-name>
            <given-names>D.</given-names>
            <surname>Rohrer</surname>
          </string-name>
          and
          <string-name>
            <given-names>K.</given-names>
            <surname>Taylor.</surname>
          </string-name>
          <article-title>The shuffling of mathematics problems improves learning</article-title>
          .
          <source>Instructional Science</source>
          ,
          <volume>35</volume>
          (
          <issue>6</issue>
          ):
          <fpage>481</fpage>
          -
          <lpage>498</lpage>
          ,
          <year>2007</year>
          .
        </mixed-citation>
      </ref>
    </ref-list>
  </back>
</article>