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      <title-group>
        <article-title>Automating Human Inference</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>US Naval Research Laboratory</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Washington DC</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="US">USA</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>Researchers of reasoning in computer science and psychology are estranged siblings. The tools they use to investigate patterns of inference seldom overlap, because the goals of each group di er. A computer scientist's primary goal is to e ciently engineer systems based on logical calculi. But, human reasoning systematically violates the constraints imposed by orthodox logic. One logician described the disparity between logical systems and the everyday inferences they are intended to capture as \one of the greatest scandals of human existence" [1]. And so the psychological objective is to discover patterns of reasoning in humans, both normative and fallacious, with the ultimate goal of developing theories capable of predicting human inference. Despite their diverging purposes, computer scientists and psychologists face similar theoretical challenges: how is knowledge represented and integrated into reasoning processes? What constitutes a normative inference? Why are some inferences more di cult than others? Human reasoning is predictably irrational, but it can also be more productive, exible, and capable than current automated reasoning systems. Indeed, as some researchers argue, certain kinds of inference { such as reasoning about defaults, non-monotonic inference, explanatory reasoning, and conditional inference { cannot be characterized without reference to how humans make them [14, 16]. A keen understanding of human reasoning therefore has both psychological and computational value. Present day automated reasoning systems do not reason the way humans do { which may explain their success as inferential tools. The productivity of automated theorem provers (ATPs) has advanced by orders of magnitude since McCune's famous solution to the Robbins problem [13]. ATPs regularly compete against one another at international competitions to e ciently yield proofs of thousands of reasoning problems. For instance, the ATPs that entered the 2004 theorem-proving competition at the annual Conference on Automated Deduction (CADE) [18] were designed to solve two thousand eligible problems. At the same competition ten years later, the number of eligible problems grew to fteen thousand [17]. As a result of prolonged development, ATPs now routinely serve as productive analytical tools, and they are instrumental in diverse applications, such as the veri cation of transportation systems, electrical circuitry, and automation systems. But, ATPs are designed to carry out just one inferential task, i.e., they operate by deriving a valid proof of a conclusion from a given set of premises. This</p>
      </abstract>
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      <p>
        design constraint allows systems to lter out invalid inferences that may corrupt
further processing, but it represents a stark divergence from human thinking.
Humans do not spontaneously construct logical proofs when they reason [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ].
Indeed, there exists little evidence to suggest that humans make use of any kind
of logical form whatsoever [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3 ref6">3, 6</xref>
        ], and algorithms capable of recovering the
logical form of an assertion from its description in natural language remain elusive.
Human inference is resistant to logical formalism for three overarching reasons:
rst, inferences tend to be rapid and intuitive, and they are prone to
systematic errors. Reasoners are theoretically capable of correcting their errors through
deliberation, but doing so demands cognitive resources. Second, reasoners carry
out many sorts of inferential task. For example, they can generate their own
conclusions from a set of premises [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ], they can consult background knowledge
to explain inconsistencies [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4 ref7">7, 4</xref>
        ], and they can infer probabilities of unique events
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
        ]. Finally, humans adopt di erent strategies when they reason, and so an
automated human reasoning system must be able to account for a variety of human
abilities.
      </p>
      <p>
        mReasoner is a novel automated reasoning system [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ]. It is a computational
implementation of mental model theory, which posits that when people reason,
they construct small-scale mental simulations of the world [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ]. Mental models are
discrete representations of real, hypothetical, or imaginary possibilities. They are
iconic in that they mirror the relationships they represent. So, when a mental
model represents a set of objects, the model contains multiple tokens
representing multiple objects. In this way, mental models cannot be processed through
syntactic transformations the way ATPs process formulas. Instead, the theory
posits that reasoners build, scan, and revise models by mapping natural language
input onto simulated structures. mReasoner makes inferences the way humans
do: it heuristically draws initial conclusions by analyzing the structure of mental
models. In doing so, it predicts reasoners' systematic errors and explains how
they overcome them [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref15">10, 15</xref>
        ]. The system can carry out multiple inferential tasks,
such as assessing whether a given conclusion is possible, necessary, or consistent
with the premises [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
        ]. Its parameters a ect the size and contents of the models
that the system builds, and also the propensity for the system to engage in
deliberation, i.e., to search for alternative models and counterexamples. Hence, it
can explain individual di erences in reasoning too [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>In sum, mReasoner is a cognitively plausible automated reasoning system. It
eschews logical formalisms in favor of mental models, i.e., discrete, iconic
representations of possibilities. The system serves as an analytical tool that mimics
both the frailties of human reasoning, e.g., systematic errors, as well as strengths
of human inference, e.g., the ability to spontaneously generate relevant
conclusions. Future applications in arti cial intelligence and computer science will
demand automated reasoning systems that interact with human reasoners. Hence,
mReasoner { and systems like it { provides a foundation for those interactions.
Acknowledgments
I am most indebted to my longtime mentor and collaborator, Phil
JohnsonLaird, for his infectious enthusiasm, perseverance, and creativity. The work I've
described would have been impossible without many conversations with Selmer
Bringsjord, my mentor in logic, and Greg Trafton, whose abilities in
computational cognitive modeling continue to inspire. Finally, I thank Paul Bello, Ruth
Byrne, Monica Bucciarelli, Geo Goodwin, Tony Harrison, Laura Hiatt, Max
Lotstein, Robert Mackiewicz, Isabel Orenes, and Marco Ragni for their
comments and criticisms.
17. Geo Sutcli e. The CADE-24 automated theorem proving system competition{</p>
      <p>CASC-24. AI Communications, 27(4):405{416, 2014.
18. Geo Sutcli e and Christian Suttner. The CADE-19 ATP system competition. AI
Communications, 17(3):103{110, 2004.</p>
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