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    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Predicting Reactions to Blog Headlines</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Rel Guzman</string-name>
          <email>r.guzmanap@gmail.com</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Jose Eduardo Ochoa-Luna</string-name>
          <email>eduardo.ol@gmail.com</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Laura Cruz-Quispe</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Elizabeth Vera-Cervantes</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Universidad Nacional de San Agustin Arequipa</institution>
          ,
          <country country="PE">Peru</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date>
        <year>1958</year>
      </pub-date>
      <fpage>43</fpage>
      <lpage>47</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>This paper describes some experiments carried out to measure sentiment, which we call emotional reaction, on blog headlines. We analyze a text corpus of titles from Facebook entries or posts linking to a website. These titles are basically headlines and we study them to understand the relationship between article headlines and the self-reported reactions of the articles' readers. We utilize the recently launched feature, Facebook reactions that enable people to express their emotional reactions with five emojis. These reactions and headlines are gathered from different fan-pages, we analyze them, make an exploratory data analysis and present preliminary results of a reaction predictor.</p>
      </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1 Introduction</title>
      <p>
        Sharing online content is an integral part of
modern life, this is somewhat related with social
transmissions which are driven in part by arousal, this
hypothesis suggests why content that evokes more
of certain emotions is more shared
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">(Berger, 2011)</xref>
        .
We analyze a text corpus of titles from Facebook
entries or posts linking to a website. These titles
are headlines and we study them to understand the
relationship between article headlines and the
selfreported reactions of the articles’ readers. We
utilize the recently launched feature, Facebook
reactions that enable people to express their emotional
reactions with five emojis. Then, we propose a
simple approach to predict people’s reactions to
textual content by analyzing emotional reactions.
      </p>
      <p>As with sentiment detection, this problem is
treated as a simple classification problem and
achieve very high accuracy by employing various
machine learning algorithms. Although, simple
classification provides limited information about
sentiment, that’s the reason we also used another
type of classifier with which we are able to
compute the probability of each reaction.</p>
      <p>A reaction is predicted using a predictive model
consisting of Term frequency Inverse Document
Frequency (TF-IDF), a Linear Support Vector
Classifier (SVC) and a Stochastic Gradient
Descent (SGD) algorithm. Preliminary experiments
were run on 14 fan-pages forming a big dataset,
and results show suitability of our approach.</p>
      <p>The paper is organized as follow: In Section 2
related work is described, next in Section 3 the
dataset is described, then our proposal is described
in Section 4. We provide experiments and results
of the proposed method in Section 5. Finally, we
provide concluding remarks in Section 6. The
source code to reproduce this paper is available
online 1.
2</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Related Work</title>
      <p>
        Among recent studies on sentiment analysis
applied on Facebook, most of them analyze public
posts shared by users
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">(Rastogi et al., 2014)</xref>
        ,
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">(Gao
et al., 2015)</xref>
        . Taking into account information such
as a text messages, comments, likes. But,
currently none of them have studied its new feature,
“reactions”, neither how a reaction could affect the
popularity of content. Predicting the popularity of
social media content has been approached from
many angles. Some have even been using
measurements of items at their early popularity
applying survival analysis
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">(Lee et al., 2010)</xref>
        . Typically,
the goal of those researches is to predict the
popularity like the number of comments that will be
generated by an article based on its content, or how
long will it be popular.
      </p>
      <p>
        A common line of research focuses on
predict1https://github.com/rgap/simbig2016-facebook-reactions
ing the spread of ideas and information using
content, topology and linguistic features. On
twitter, authors tend to pay special attention to
sentiment indicators from the content of tweets,
including counts of emoticons and strength of word-level
sentiments
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">(Kong et al., 2014)</xref>
        .
      </p>
      <p>
        There are studies that suggest that content that
evokes either high-arousal positive emotions (awe)
or negative emotions (anger or anxiety) tends to be
more viral
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">(Berger and Milkman, 2013)</xref>
        .
Therefore, a headline popularity can also be measured
according to what emotion, sentiment, or reaction
it produces. And, there are also recent studies
that deal with sentiment analysis on headlines and
short-texts (Nassirtoussi et al., 2015).
3
      </p>
      <p>Dataset
All posts were extracted using the Facebook
Graph API, from 14 fan-pages of popular websites
about news, science, and entertainment: Buzzfeed,
9gag, Boredpanda, Mashable, Unilad, CNN, CNN
international, DailyMail, FoxNews,
HuffingtonPost, New York Times, IFeakingLoveScience,
IMDB, and Natgeo. And because Facebook
reactions were launched after February 2016, the
dataset was sliced so that it only contains samples
within “2016-04-01” and “2016-07-31”. We
obtained a dataset of 9072 samples.
3.1</p>
      <p>Reactions
After an administrator posts a link directing to a
website article on Facebook, a thumbnail is
generated which contains: image, description, and a
title. A user is redirected to the article after
clicking on the thumbnail then reads it, goes back to
Facebook and gives it a reaction, or probably does
it before even clicking on it. Therefore, we
analyzed a text corpus of titles from Facebook posts.
These titles are like news headlines and we
studied them to understand the relationship between
them and the self-reported reactions of the articles’
readers. We utilized the recently launched feature,
Facebook reactions that enable people to express
their emotional reactions with one of five emojis:
“love”, “haha”, “wow”, “sad”, and “angry”. We
selected BuzzFeed as one of the fan-pages due to a
feature its website has, a registered user is allowed
to comment on an article with a type of reaction
defined by the website, the types of reactions are:
“love”, “lol”, “fail”, “wtf”, among others but these
are the most voted.</p>
      <p>To predict a specific reaction to a headline, we
defined a target y which is the most voted
reaction among only the reactions, not considering the
number of likes. Furthermore, we added it to the
dataset only if its number of votes was higher than
75% of the total number of votes, so we make sure
people reacted in just one way, because some of
them could have the same number of votes per
reaction. The number of reaction votes per
reaction sorted by their means is shown in Figure 1.
This diagram doesn’t tell too much only that even
taking into account many fan-pages, the sad
reaction isn’t the most voted. We took away the
headlines with a most voted reaction with less than 200
votes.</p>
      <p>A correlation matrix is shown in Figure 2,
it shows how the “number of reactions”,
“comments”, “shares”, “likes” and the reactions
correlate among them.
We needed to get features to predict a specific
reaction, these features were extracted from the
headlines. Some of the headlines are less specific
to a special date or event like “numbered lists” also
known as “listcicles” like:
• 24 Heartbreaking TV Moments That Made</p>
      <p>You Cry Your Eyes Out.
• 27 Surreal Places To Visit Before You Die.</p>
      <p>We selected BuzzFeed also because it creates
these types of posts, but not so many to take only
BuzzFeed into account. A predictor of these types
of headlines would have been easier to optimize,
but it is harder to know if a title is one of these, at
least not automatically, also we wanted to make it
more general. That’s the reason we gathered data
from many fan-pages.</p>
      <p>Then, we figured out the dataset from
“buzzfeed” contained english and spanish headlines,
spanish ones were taken away from the corpus.
The headlines were tokenized and we took
normal words, abbreviations and words with internal
hyphens/apostrophe. We took Unicode words like
“ber” and represented them in US-ASCII
characters so that it becomes “Uber”. More
preprocessing is done like profanity censorship converting
every bad word in the token “badword”. Then we
removed common and some special stopwords, we
did lemmatization and stemming.</p>
      <p>A histogram with number of headlines per
reaction in descending order is shown in Figure 3, it
shows that the dataset is imbalanced.</p>
      <sec id="sec-2-1">
        <title>Predictive Model</title>
        <p>With the dataset we created we are certainly
dealing with a multi-class classification problem. And
we found a pretty straightforward model to predict
the type of emotional reaction a headline will
produce. The best predictive model we found was a
TF-IDF + Linear SVC, and to get the probability
of producing each of the reactions with a TF-IDF
+ SGD, we describe more about the first model
because it predicts the highest reaction with a higher
accuracy.
4.1</p>
        <sec id="sec-2-1-1">
          <title>Feature Extraction</title>
          <p>It is very common to follow the bag-of-words
(BoW) approach when extracting features from
documents. One of the simplest feature model is
TF-IDF. Following a BoW representation, where
we call vectorization to the process of turning a
collection of text documents which will be the
headlines, into numerical feature vectors. This
strategy includes: tokenization, counting and
normalization.</p>
          <p>In our set of headlines, some words were not so
very present hence carrying very little meaningful
information about the actual contents of the
headline. Therefore, we ignored terms that have a
frequency lower than 2. We extracted features for
1grams and 2-grams, both were joined and became
a unique feature vector of size 9302 for a headline.</p>
          <p>It was not easy to extract features from the
headlines, we tried with Latent Dirichlet Allocation
(LDA) and Doc2Vec, based on Word2Vec, which
is kind of a state-of-the-art technique.
4.2</p>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-1-2">
          <title>Learning Model</title>
          <p>A simple but accurate learning model to try first is
a Linear Support Vector Machine or Support
Vector Classifier (SVC). It was trained and evaluated
using Stratified K-Fold Cross Validation to deal
with the imbalanced dataset and find a good
accuracy score for this multi-class classification task
has to be an accuracy defined by the number of
well classified samples which is the “accuracy”.
We got an accuracy of 0.7245 with a simple
Linear SVC with C = 0.29, it was the highest score
among the techniques compared shown in Table 1.
5</p>
        </sec>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-2">
        <title>Experiments</title>
        <p>We evaluated the final predictor with headlines
from recent posts and results of a random sample
of them are shown in Table 2. As expected,
according to these results we got that headlines that
contain highly frequent words are more likely to
belong to a specific type of reaction, and it could
certainly fail awkwardly because of that.</p>
        <p>We created a test dataset containing headlines
created within “2016-08-29” and “2016-09-04” to
see its drawbacks, it gets a pretty high accuracy for
this task but it fails classifying “wow” and “angry”
reactions, as shown in Figure 4.
We built a dataset of 9072 Facebook posts
extracted from several fan-pages and from these
posts we analyzed a text corpus of titles linking
to a website. Then, we were able to discover
features that can be used to obtain a good headline
by considering the type of reaction it produces on
people.</p>
        <p>According to the results the most common
reaction are “haha” and “love”. These are more likely
to produce more reaction votes and therefore
become more popular. However, headlines that
produce an “angry” reaction are more likely to
produce more comments.</p>
        <p>Among the headlines there were other types
of content related with celebrities or news which
mostly depends on the date the entry is published.
A more specific type of content could produce
better results, but it could is hard to find enough “sad”
and “angry” reactions.</p>
        <p>It could be possible to obtain a better result by
changing the parameters of the classifiers and
feature models. Also, we tried mostly with BoW
techniques, there should be a better way to extract
features and considering the grammar structure.
Moreover, sentiment analysis techniques could be
used to get better assumptions on how to separate
headlines by the type of reaction.</p>
        <p>We dealt with a multi-class classification where
the target takes one of 5 reactions, the highest
or most voted reaction. We could have used the
number of votes each of those reactions had as a
discrete probability distribution. Finally, a deep
learning approach might get a better performance.
yprob
ytrue
angry
love
haha
angry
haha
haha
sad
sad
wow
haha
Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology
(WIIAT), 2010 IEEE/WIC/ACM International
Conference on, volume 1, pages 623–630. IEEE.</p>
      </sec>
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