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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>A Holistic Approach to Evaluate Cyber Threat</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>C4I Center, George Mason University</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Fairfax</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="US">USA</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>Instituto de Controle do Espac ̧o Ae ́reo</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Sa ̃o Jose ́ dos Campos</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="BR">Brazil</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2">
          <label>2</label>
          <institution>Ma ́rcio Monteiro</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date>
        <year>2016</year>
      </pub-date>
      <fpage>4</fpage>
      <lpage>8</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>-Several vulnerability databases and standards are currently available for assessing the degree of security of IT infrastructures in general. These standards focus on different aspects of the systems, while generally failing to provide support for holistic analyses - a key aspect in ensuring a secure IT infrastructure. This work aims to address this gap by presenting a new methodology for evaluating the overall security risks of a networked system that adopts an ontology-based approach we presented in previous work. We leverage current security standards and databases, while also considering the human factors to build a broader and interconnected view. Our methodology is meant to achieve a more realistic picture of the network security, hence improving situation awareness for its administrators. To illustrate our approach, this paper brings a case study applying the new methodology to a few target networks. The proof of concept is meant to underscore the methodology's effectiveness in assessing the security of the whole network.</p>
      </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>I. INTRODUCTION</p>
      <p>Cyber security assessment has a importance role in a
modern society. has become more interconnected through computer
systems and networks. It is well-established that cyber threats
can cause on corporations severe economic losses and damages
to their reputation [1]. As a result, investments on cyber
security has been growing significantly, even during market
crises [2].</p>
      <p>A basic standard for cyber security assessment is the
Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE), which is the de
facto standard to report and communicate software
vulnerabilities between organizations and entities. Currently, the CVE has
been standardized by the Telecommunication Standardization
Sector of the International Telecommunication Union
(ITUT) [3] and is being heavily used by automatic security
assessment tools (e.g., Nessus and OpenVAS) to identify software
vulnerabilities on target hosts.</p>
      <p>On top of CVE, another standard was established to score
the vulnerabilities with respect to their severity, impact and
exploitation capacity. This standard is called Common
Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). One of the most important
CVSS databases is hosted and managed by the National
Vulnerability Database (NVD), which provides the scores for
most known vulnerabilities.</p>
      <p>Although those standards are very efficient in cataloging and
prioritizing software vulnerabilities, system administrators are
usually interested in knowing how vulnerable is their entire
network, no only individual hosts.</p>
      <p>For instance, if a web server is highly protected against
external threats, but vulnerable hosts in the same local area
network have open access to the server, this condition should
impact the overall score of the system. In addition, users can
also be considered vulnerabilities of the system, as they could
be deceived (or “exploited”) somehow to execute malicious
software. Then, security unaware or careless users should also
impact the overall score of the system.</p>
      <p>In this work we propose to analyze those aspects (CVE,
CVSS and human factors) in a unified manner for a target
network, where vulnerabilities scores are propagated through
the network’s trusted relationships (intentional or not). This
way, we provide an overall security metric that can be used
to classify entire networks.</p>
      <p>This work is organized as follows: Sec. II briefly details
the main attributes of CVE and CVSS; Sec. III presents the
proposed metric; and Sec. IV concludes with final remarks.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>A. Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures</title>
      <p>The Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE) is a
standard for cataloging vulnerabilities of computer systems.
It consists of a list of information of security vulnerabilities
and exposures, mainly reported by the community, aiming
to provide common names for publicly known problems. It
allows to share data about vulnerability capabilities (tools,
repositories, and services).</p>
      <p>The main attributes of a CVE are:
• CVE identifier number (i.e., CVE-1999-0067);
• Vulnerability type: buffer overflow, cross site request
forgery (CSRF), cross site scripting (XSS), directory
traversal, incorrect access control, insecure permissions,
integer overflow, missing SSL certificate validation, SQL
injection, XML external entity (XXE), and others or
unknown;
• Vendor of the product(s);
• List of vulnerable products and versions;
• Attack type: context-dependent, local, physical, remote,
other;
• Impact: code execution, denial of service, escalation of
privileges, information disclosure, other.</p>
      <p>Currently, the MITRE Corporation is responsible for
managing CVE identifiers generation and publication through its
web site [4]. In addition, MITRE also delegates this attribution
to its several CVE numbering authorities (CNAs).</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>B. Common Vulnerability Scoring System</title>
      <p>
        Usually, the CVSS is represented as a vector string, a
compressed textual representation of the values used to derive
the score. String (
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ) below is an example of a CVSS vector
string.
      </p>
      <p>
        CVSS:3.0/AV:N/AC:L/PR:L/UI:R/S:C/C:L/I:L/A:H
(
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        )
      </p>
      <p>The equations adopted to calculate the CVSS base score are
provided in Sec. III.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>C. Human Factors</title>
      <p>Human factors play an important role in the security of
an organization, since users are used as both targets and
vectors of attacks. Several social engineering methods can
be employed to obtain key information and select the most
vulnerable employees.</p>
      <p>In this work we propose to model the users’
“vulnerabilities” as a CVSS-like metric. In other words, the users would
also be rated by the impact and exploitability subscores. As
an example, users with high privileges in the network would
have a high impact factor, because if they get “compromised”
that would grant intruders deeper access to the network.</p>
      <p>On the other hand, users unaware of security issues or
careless about it can be considered highly “exploitable”, that
is, they can be easily deceived to execute malicious software
on their computers. There are numerous methods to do so,
such as telephone calls from fake IT staff, phishing campaigns,
malicious websites, etc.</p>
      <p>To prevent such situations, the staff should perform security
awareness training. Besides, the corporation should have a
solid information security policy and all means should be
employed to enforce it.</p>
      <p>The Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) is
an open framework for describing specific characteristics of
software vulnerabilities. It consists of three metric groups: III. THE PROPOSED METRIC
base, temporal, and environmental. System administrators usually focus heavily in protecting</p>
      <p>The base group represents the intrinsic qualities of a vul- their networks against external cyber attacks. For this reason,
nerability, the temporal group reflects the characteristics of a the insider threats might receive insufficient attention and,
vulnerability that changes over time, and the environmental consequently, the security can be impacted. Considering that
group represents characteristics of a vulnerability that are every host connected to the Internet is a potential attack vector
unique to the user’s environment. through phishing campaigns (someone trying to convince the</p>
      <p>In this work, we focus on the base metric, which produces user to execute the malicious code) and applications
vulneraa score ranging from 0.0 to 10.0. It is composed by the impact bilities (browsers, e-mail and document readers), and that the
subscore (ranging from 0 to 6) and the exploitability subscore protection against known hosts is reduced, then a single host
(ranging from 0 to 4). However, the overall CVSS score of can severely compromise the security of the entire network.
a single vulnerability is also impacted by the temporal and The proposed metric in this work is obtained by a
fiveenvironmental metrics. Readers are encouraged to refer to [5] step approach, each one being required for computing the
for more information on CVSS specifications and formulas. overall security of a given network. The technique involves
The main attributes of CVSS base score are: building a graph representing the overall network as well as
• Attack vector (AV): network (N), adjacent network (A), the relationship between each step. The relative importance
local (L), and physical (P); of each step is assessed using multi-criteria decision analysis
• Attack complexity (AC): low (L), high (H); concepts.
• Privileges required (PR): none (N), low (L), high (H); There are different approaches for building such graph
• User interaction (UI): none (N), required (R); and defining the metric. However, the specific aspects of the
• Scope (S): unchanged (U), changed (C); cyber security domain involving different perspectives (e.g.
• Confidentiality impact (C): none (N), Low (L), high (H); technical, human factor, standards, etc.) naturally led us to
• Integrity impact (I): none (N), Low (L), high (H); reuse/adopt the ontology-based approach previously presented
• Availability impact (A): none (N), Low (L), high (H); in [6]. The general idea is to use semantic techniques in
supporting the definition of the target mission, its support task,
as well as the services and network configuration required
to accomplish a mission. As in the aforementioned previous
version, in this work we use the DoDAF Conceptual Data
Model to represent the concepts involved in the mission.</p>
      <p>The difference, however, is that in this work we extend this
approach by incorporating time and event descriptions [7].</p>
      <p>The ontology is presented in Figure 2, which conveys the
queries that can be performed in cyber-situation awareness:
WHAT (Activity), WHY (Goal and Desire Effect), HOW
(Resource and Guidance), WHO (Performer), WHERE
(Location), and WHEN (Timestamp and Event).</p>
      <p>1) Complete inventory: The first step consists in obtaining
a complete and detailed asset inventory record of the target
network, including hubs, switches, routers, software list, etc.</p>
      <p>This is fundamental for every security approach and should
not be a problem for security aware corporations.</p>
      <p>2) Communications: The second step consists in mapping
the communication between the assets (including the users).</p>
      <p>If the network contains N assets, this can be mapped into a
N ⇥ N matrix.</p>
      <p>Taking Fig. 1 as example, we can derive its access matrix as
presented in Table I, where the rows represent the asset with
communication initiative, the columns represent the
communication destination, and a cell filled with a ‘Y’ informs that such
communication is allowed (or that there is nothing forbidding
such communication).</p>
      <p>To generate the aforementioned table, a SPARQL query is
performed on the Mission Ontology. This greatly simplifies
the otherwise complex task of discovering and mapping
connections, in spite of these being hidden or not.</p>
      <p>An alternative representation of Table I can be achieved
through directed graphs, as depicted in Fig. 3. The main
advantage of this approach is that it makes relatively easier
to identify nodes with a higher impact higher to the overall
security of the network. Also, it becomes possible to derive
attack chains throughout the network.</p>
      <p>
        On the sequence, the attack complexity (AC) parameter is
given by (
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        )
      </p>
      <p>AC =
(0.77, if AC = Low (L),</p>
      <p>0.44, if AC = High (H).</p>
      <p>PR =
PR =
8&gt; 0.85, if PR = None (N),
&lt;</p>
      <p>0.62, if PR = Low (L),
&gt;: 0.27, if PR = High (H).
8&gt; 0.85, if PR = None (N),
&lt;</p>
      <p>0.68, if PR = Low (L),
&gt;: 0.50, if PR = High (H).</p>
      <p>However, for modified scope (S:C), the following equation
applies for PR:</p>
      <p>Finally, the user interaction (UI) parameter can be given by
(10):</p>
      <p>
        For unmodified scope (S:U), the following equation applies
for the privileges required (PR) parameter:
(
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        )
(
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        )
(
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        )
(10)
(11)
UI =
(0.85, if UI = Not Required (N),
      </p>
      <p>0.62, if UI = Required (R).</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>5) Computing the proposed metric: After computing the</title>
      <p>impact sub score (↵ ) and exploitability sub score ( ), for every
vulnerability found in previous steps we need to assemble a
P matrix, where the first column (pi,1, 8 i) corresponds to
the impact sub score (↵ ), and the second column (pj,2, 8 j)
corresponds to the exploitability sub score ( ). Then, we need
to append three additional points to this matrix such that its
final version is according to (11):</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>3) Vulnerabilities assessment: The third step is to obtain</title>
      <p>the CVE IDs and CVSS base vector string for all N hosts of
the network. There are many automated tools that can help in
obtaining this information, such as the Nessus Vulnerability
Scanner [8] and the Open Vulnerability Assessment System
(OpenVAS) [9].</p>
      <p>4) Calculating Scores: Once the vulnerabilities are
obtained, for every CVSS string we need to compute the impact
sub score ↵ and the exploitability sub score .</p>
      <p>
        The impact sub score ↵ can be computed according to (
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ):
↵ =
8&gt; 6.42 ⇥ ISCBase,
&lt;
      </p>
      <p>7.52 ⇥ [ISCBase
&gt;: 3.25 ⇥ [ISCBase
if S = U,
0.029]
0.02]15 , if S = C
where</p>
      <p>ISCBase = 1</p>
      <p>
        The attack vector (AV) parameter is given by (
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ):
AV =
8 0.85, if AV = Network (N),
&gt;&gt;&gt;&lt; 0.62, if AV = Adjacent Network (A),
&gt; 0.55, if AV = Local (L),
&gt;
&gt;: 0.20, if AV = Physical (P).
(
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        )
(
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        )
(
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        )
(
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        )
2
p1,1
.
.
      </p>
      <p>.
6
6
P = 6666 pN0,1
64 max(p1,1, . . . , pN,1)
0
where the function max(· ) returns the maximum value of its
arguments and N denotes the number of vulnerabilities found
on previous steps.</p>
      <p>Finally, we must compute the convex hull of the matrix
P and its 2D area (considering the outmost vulnerabilities
as vertices of the polygon), and divide resulting area by the
highest possible CVSS subscores (6 ⇥ 4 = 24). Conducting
the calculations this way ensures that the proposed metric is
presented as percentage. The results are then used to rate the
network security according the intervals presented on Table II.</p>
      <p>Fig. 4 depicts an example of a fictitious network composed
of three nodes. The overall vulnerability metrics has been
appointed as 70.4476 %, which corresponds to the rating Highly
Vulnerable, according to Table II. Every marker on this figure
4
3.5
1
0.5
0
0
3.5
4
3
Fig. 4: Vulnerability assessment using the proposed metric for
a highly insecure network.
corresponds to a CVSS metrics (impact and exploitability sub
scores).</p>
      <p>Likewise, Fig. 5 presents a second network with less
severe individuals vulnerabilities throughout the nodes of the
network. Notice that the overall vulnerability was 16.7402 %,
which corresponds to the rating Low, according to Table II.</p>
      <p>Host 1
Host 2
Host 3
Metric
Host 1
Host 2
Host 3
Metric
multiple-criteria analysis and modeling the human factor as
CVSS v3 base scores. An example on a fictitious network was
performed in order to demonstrate the practicality of the
proposed metric. Further, the reuse of concepts previously defined
in an existing ontology we had developed suggests that the
approach can be generalized to encompass the diverse aspects
that permeate the way different corporations are structured.</p>
      <p>ACKNOWLEDGMENT</p>
      <p>Ma´rcio Monteiro, Thalysson Sarmento and Alexandre
Barreto would like to thank the financial support of the Brazilian
agencies MCTI and FINEP (Ref. 04/2013/12).
3</p>
      <p>Impact
1</p>
      <p>IV. FINAL REMARKS</p>
      <p>This work presented an ontology-based approach for
analyzing the vulnerability of a network in a holistic way, using</p>
    </sec>
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