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    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>A Higher Education Predictive Model Using Data Mining Techniques</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Subhalaxmi Panda P. A Pattanaik Tripti Swarnkar</string-name>
          <email>triptiswarnakar@soauniversity</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="editor">
          <string-name>Indian Education System; Data Mining; Random Forest</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Department of Computer Science &amp; Department of Computer Science &amp; Department of Computer Engineering, Siksha 'O' Anusandhan Engineering, Siksha 'O' Anusandhan Application, Siksha 'O' Anusandhan University</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Bhubaneswar, Odisha</addr-line>
          ,
          <institution>University</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Bhubaneswar, Odisha</addr-line>
          ,
          <institution>University</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Bhubaneswar, Odisha</addr-line>
          ,
          <country>INDIA. INDIA. INDIA. Ph :</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>The main objective of the higher educational organization is to provide high quality and necessary education to its students. The two goals of data mining in Indian education system is to analyze and enhance the chronicle way of recent educational data mining advances development; the second is to preserve, organize and discuss the content of the result which is produced by a data mining approach. The use of various data mining techniques such as random forest, decision tree, etc in Indian education processes will help to improve students' performance and provide a broad decision management skill in selection of courses as per their retention rate. This paper focuses on the model representation for analyzing the different data mining techniques in an Indian education system. Also the paper reviews a comparative study of ID3, K-Means, Naïve Bayes, Random Forest algorithm. In this paper, we have proposed the approach of Random Forest to predict the career decision for the 12th passing out students. The use of Random Forest has helped the students to take a correct appropriate decision as per their interest and skills and acts a career counselor toolbox.</p>
      </abstract>
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  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. INTRODUCTION</title>
      <p>Education is an attempt or effort of the senior people to spread
their knowledge to the younger people of society. It is thus an
institution, which plays a vital role in maintaining the perpetuation
of culture by integrating an individual with his society. But in
India, the education system has some serious lacunae[3].
Nowadays the important challenges in the educational
organization are, not having more efficient, effective and accurate
educational processes. Nowadays the important challenges in the
educational organization are, not having more efficient, effective
and accurate educational processes.</p>
      <p>Copyright ©2017 for the individual papers by the papers’ authors. Copying
permiŠed for private and academic purposes. Œis volume is published and
copyrighted by its editors.</p>
      <p>There exist lack of efficient and enough knowledge in Indian
educational system which hampers the system management to get
their quality objectives. Thus, data mining is considered as the
most suitable technology which provides additional insight into
the industrial as well as educational sectors helping in taking
better decisions and motivating them to perform effectively. Data
mining technology acts as a bridge between the lacunas and
Indian educational system. Data mining approach leads to some
data mining techniques which will help to improve the
effectiveness, efficiency and the accuracy of the processes. As a
result, this development helps in improving the Indian educational
system by increasing educational system efficiency, minimizing
students drop-out rate, gradually increasing students promotion
rate, students retention rate, simultaneously educational
improvement rate, students success, increase in students learning
rate[6]. So, to achieve the overall quality improvement, we need
some data mining techniques in the system that helps the decision
makers to act smartly. Random Forest is one of the dynamic
ensemble learning techniques which helps the students to take
correct decision for their appropriate career choices after board
exams. This data mining technique instructs the student with a
particular pathway to direct his/her brighter career in an effective
manner.
2.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>METHODS</title>
      <p>Data mining in Indian education system has some extend
overcome the lacunae by various techniques. It is gaining
popularity because of effective, efficient and accurate towards
Indian education system. The dataset used in this study contains
records of class 10th and 12th students of career counseling. The
data set is used to improve the performances, predict, or focus on
skills of students by using different classification techniques.
Figure 1 demonstrates the whole working of the proposed model
to give a broad understanding to the students about their career
counseling. In the first stage, information about students of class
10th and 12th were collected and is named as data pre-processing
stage. In the second stage, remove the unnecessary information
and only relevant data will be fed to the database. After
addressing the students information, the dataset is tried with
different algorithms like ID3, K-Means, Naïve Bayes and Random
Forest[1]. K-Means technique is one of the old and most widely
used algorithms used for clustering larger information based
databases. Naïve Bayes is one of the statistical classifier
techniques which act as a hypothesis for a set of estimating
attributes in a database. This technique helps to detect the
effectiveness of specific attribute for a given class and its
relationship with other classes[2][5]. The other algorithm is the
Random Forest, which aims in the first randomization through
bagging. This approach of using Random Forest helps on handling
missing values and category predictors and problems. The third
last stage states the application of Random forest algorithm to the
training data set with better output and the performance of each
student are evaluated[6].
The training data set, shown in Table: 1 contains detail
information of the student like Student ID, Gender, etc. The whole
student information detail is used as the input dataset.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>2.1 RANDOM FOREST</title>
      <p>The Random forest concept was first introduced by Tin Kam Ho.
Random forests or random decision forest is a learning technique
for classification and regression. It is used in the construction
of decision trees at training time and gives output classes that is in
the form of the classification classes or mean prediction
(regression) of the individual tree[1].</p>
      <sec id="sec-3-1">
        <title>Basic Random forest Algorithm:</title>
        <p>Consider Nstudent be the no. of students to create for each of
Nstudents iterations. Where mtry is no. of predictors to try at each
split.</p>
        <p>


</p>
        <p>Choose a new bootstrap sample from the training set.</p>
        <p>Develop an un-pruned tree on this bootstrap.</p>
        <p>Arbitrarily, choose Mtry predictors and find the best split
using only these predictors at each internal node.</p>
        <p>Each Nstudent leads to the largest extent possible with no
pruning.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>3. RESULTS &amp; DISCUSSION</title>
      <p>For this experiment, 200 samples were taken into consideration.
The table shows the accuracy in terms of percentage for different
classifiers with the increasing data set size. To predict the change
in behavior, the Random forest technique is used on student
database. The technique distinguishes between slow learner and
keen learner, recover the failure as soon as possible, takes
appropriate action to improve the poor section students in a
correct manner. The comparison of students performance using
classifier algorithms like decision tree clustering, decision tree,
Naïve Bayes, Random forest and outcome concluded that as the
size of data set goes on increasing, Random forest gives better
result or accuracy.</p>
      <sec id="sec-4-1">
        <title>Dataset size</title>
        <p>20
80
160
200</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>CONCLUSION</title>
      <p>This paper lists a high scope for the students to decide for the
brighter future with specific and accurate analysis. As the
efficiency, accuracy, and effectiveness play the vital role in the
process of Indian education system, use of the Random Forest
technique provides us an optimal solution to the real world
student’s education. In this paper, we have used the approach of
Random Forest to predict the career decision for the 12th passing
out students. The use of Random Forest has helped the students to
take a correct appropriate decision as per their interest and skills.
The final goal is to give a better insight to design a better Indian
Education system for Indian students with the effective outcome.
This review may extend to larger features to solve complex
decision databases in an efficient manner.</p>
      <p>Yadav, Surjeet Kumar, Brijesh Bharadwaj, and Saurabh Pal
"Data mining applications: A comparative study for
predicting student's performance." arXiv preprint arXiv,
Volume. 1202, pp.4815, February 2012.</p>
    </sec>
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