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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Traffic Congestion Analysis in Mobile Macrocells</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Aliyu Ozovehe</string-name>
          <email>1aliyu123oz@gmail.com</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">3</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Okpo U. Okereke</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Anene E. C.</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Abraham U. Usman</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa University</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Bauchi</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="NG">Nigeria</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Federal University of Technology</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Minna</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="NG">Nigeria</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2">
          <label>2</label>
          <institution>Federal University of Technology</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Minna</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="NG">Nigeria</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff3">
          <label>3</label>
          <institution>Trifield Technology Limited</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Abuja</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="NG">Nigeria</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date>
        <year>2016</year>
      </pub-date>
      <fpage>243</fpage>
      <lpage>249</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>-Traffic congestion during busy hour (BH) deteriorates the overall performance of cellular network and may become unmanageable unless effective and efficient methods of congestion control are developed through real live traffic data measurement and analysis. In this work, real live traffic data from integrated GSM/GPRS network is used for traffic congestion analysis. The analysis was carried out on 10 congesting cells using network management system (NMS) statistics data that span three years period. Correlation test was used to show that TCH congestion depend only on call setup success rate (CSSR) and BH traffic at cell level. An average correlation coefficient value of 0.9 was observed between TCH congestion and CSSR while 0.6 was observed between TCH congestion and BH traffic. The correlation test is important when selecting input for congestion prediction modeling.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>-traffic congestion</kwd>
        <kwd>GSM</kwd>
        <kwd>GPRS</kwd>
        <kwd>macrocells</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>INTRODUCTION</p>
      <p>All over the world, cellular network operators are faced
with the challenges of improving the quality of service (QoS)
while increasing capacity and rolling out new services. This
has resulted in many congested networks and consequently
degradation of QoS due to inadequate provision of the
needed resources or underutilisation of the available
resources.</p>
      <p>To cope with subscriber demands and meet Regulator
standards, cellular network providers dimension network
elements on continuous based using network management
system (NMS) statistics, drive test trailing and customer
feedbacks.</p>
      <p>However, Nigerian Communication Commission (NCC)
quarterly audit reports of GSM network performance had
consistently shown that the operators have not been able to
meet the set standards [1] due to network congestion [2]. If
there is no hardware fault, network congestion usually occurs
due to insufficient number of radio channels in access
network elements [3].</p>
      <p>This work used busy hour traffic data of access network
from a live network to analyse traffic congestion in some
macrocells of GSM/GPRS network. The busy hour of a
network is the time when the network processes the
highest traffic in a day and it is used to measure network
performance, determine the robustness of a network and its
dimension [4]. To measure the network performance, the
pattern of busy hour traffic is considered for congestion
evaluation [5] using key performance indicators (KPIs).</p>
      <p>These KPIs are defined for different interfaces and
network elements of GSM/GPRS. To cater for subscriber
demand, radio frequency (RF) optimization teams use the
KPIs to generate quality of service (QoS) reports to ensure
minimal congestion over all the interfaces and network
elements in order to avoid QoS degradation by maintaining
the KPIs under pre-defined threshold [6].</p>
      <p>Network congestion leads to poor QoS which affect
grade of service (GoS) of the network, particularly during the
busy hour of the day [7]. In a loss system, the GoS describes
that proportion of calls that are lost due to congestion in the
busy hour and can be measured using equation (1):
Number _ of _ offered _ calls
(1)</p>
      <p>While a whole range of services of GSM technology are
in use in Nigeria, it is obvious that the network performance
in terms of QoS are degrading which proved that GSM
network is either over utilized or under dimensioned. Hence
the need for this analysis to identify the cells that are
responsible for congestion during busy hour by statistically
analyzing traffic data of a live network in order to establish
the presence or absence of congestion.</p>
      <p>II.</p>
      <p>LITERATURE REVIEW</p>
      <p>
        Traffic analysis is important for evaluating the
performance of existing networks and network optimization.
The events that occur in BTS trigger different counters in the
BSC and MSC memory that are used for performance
monitoring and network evaluation. Various KPIs that are
used to measure network performances are derived with the
help of these counters using different formulations [7]. In
practice, the performance can be monitored at different
sections of the network [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ] and in this work the network
performance is evaluated at cell levels in terms of resource
allocation and resource utilization.
      </p>
      <p>
        Some of the early works on GSM network elements
performance were done mostly on access part of the network
particularly at BTS level. For example, [9] proposed a traffic
model for mobile network, using Markov chain to determine
call blocking and handoff failure probabilities when no
queuing of new or handover calls is performed while [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ]
modeled the effect of user mobility on the performance of
mobile networks using office hours traffic data. Location
updates were analyzed to evaluate the probability of call
dropping when handover is needed. Likewise, [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
        ] analyzed
seventy eight traffic channels and showed that a single
dedicated channel is enough for good QoS. [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
        ] investigated
GSM/GPRS system performance using dedicated number of
GPRS channels and some idle periods between voice calls
for GPRS data packet transfers. Reservation of more
channels brings handover failure and dropped call
probability to very small values but lack of ordinary channels
produces a larger new calls blocking probability.
      </p>
      <p>
        The work of [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13</xref>
        ] presented the results of study of
DCS1800 Um-interface using daily traffic measurement
data. The performance indicators used are Traffic, CSSR,
handover success rate (HOSR), standalone dedicated control
channel (SDCCH) and traffic channel (TCH) congestion.
The analysis shows the limitations of the system to
accommodate extreme offered traffic without adding more
resources. A model combining simulations for paging,
signaling and traffic channels was developed by [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ] to
investigate the optimal dimensioning of a finite physical
resource allocated across multiple logical channels with
multiple traffic types.
      </p>
      <p>
        Reference [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15">15</xref>
        ] evaluated the performance of GSM1900
Um-interface of two different vendors using daily
measurement data for one week. The performance indicators
used are peak hour traffic; CSSR; Handover Failure;
congestion on control channels (SDCCH blocking rate);
congestion on traffic channels (TCH blocking Rate); drop on
traffic channels; drop on control channels; cells with TCH
congestion rate exceeding 2% and TCH Mean Holding
Time.
      </p>
      <p>
        In another work, [3] analyzed traffic data from a trunked
radio network operated by Ecomm in UK using OPNET
model. The findings indicated that traditional Erlang models
for voice traffic may not be suitable for evaluating the
performance of trunked radio networks. In a related work,
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">16</xref>
        ] formulated a dynamic channel allocation model using
Markov chain technique as an improvement on [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17">17</xref>
        ]. There is
one problem common to all these works at BTS level,
exclusive handover channels were employed for easy
compliance of QoS standards for ongoing calls and handover
failure reduction. However, the disadvantage is that new
calls blocking increase as a result of the reduction of
available ordinary channels. The solution should have been
that resources should be added to maintain GoS of the
network as put forward by [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref18">18</xref>
        ] and supported by the work of
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>III.</p>
      <p>METHODOLOGY</p>
      <p>The setup for data collection in GSM/GPRS network
comprises of base station subsystem (BSS) and network
subsystem (NSS) connected to standalone system called
NMS as shown in Figure 1.</p>
      <p>NMS is the functional entity from which the service
provider monitors and controls the entire network. The data
used in this work was extracted from the NMS with the help
of Ericsson Business intelligent (BI) tools installed on the
standalone computer and exported to Microsoft Excel
environment.</p>
      <p>The network is composed of 742 cells, 262 BTSs.
Measurements were taken from November, 2012 to
September, 2014. Correlation test was used to choose only
KPIs that have significant effect on TCH congestion during
busy hour.</p>
      <p>Correlation coefficient is defined as a number or function
indicating the degree of correlation between two variables
like X and Y. In this work, the variables are busy hour traffic
and CSSR, HOSR, DCR, SDCCH and TCH Congestions as
KPIs to measure the network performance. Equation (2)
defines correlation coefficient as:</p>
      <p>Correl( X ,Y ) </p>
      <p> x  x  y  y 
 x  x 2   y  y 2
(2)</p>
      <p>Microsoft excel statistical tools was used for the
correlation analysis.</p>
      <p>IV.</p>
      <p>BTS DAILY BUSY HOUR TRAFFIC ANALYSIS</p>
      <p>
        The busy hour traffic data showed that 154 cells
experienced congestion out of 742 cells during the period
under investigation. In the cell KPIs analysis, 10 worst
congesting cells were chosen for BH TCH congestion
analysis [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref19">19</xref>
        ].The ten most congested cells is shown in Table
1, Table 2 presents the maximum and average daily BH
traffic of the ten most congested cells over the period.
Using the BTS KPIs and BH traffic, the correlation test
showed that the ten worst cells behaved differently in terms
of KPIs that have strong correlation with TCH congestion
during busy hour which implied that they must be
investigated differently based on their correlation results.
However, we selected 4 cells to know which KPI has strong
correlation with TCH congestion at cell level. The result of
the test for the four cells is summarised in Table 3.
      </p>
      <p>Table 3 shows that BH TCH congestion has strong
correlation with CSSR and busy hour traffic for the four
cells.</p>
      <p>Given the result of the correlation test, the maximum
daily BH traffic carried by the ten cells and it impact on
CSSR and TCH congestion is shown in Figure 2 and Figure
3.</p>
      <p>From Figure 2 and 3, most of the cells CSSR and TCH
CONG degraded when they carried maximum traffic while
Cell 396B, 393C and 301C suffered worst KPIs degradation.</p>
      <p>The behaviour of the ten worst cells when they
experienced worst TCH CONG and the effect on other KPIs
during the period is shown in Figure 4 to 6.</p>
      <p>All the cells CSSR degraded and their ability to carry
traffic is limited when they experienced worst TCH CONG
while Cell 496B, 430C, 396B and 038B recorded worst KPIs
degradation. This shows that traffic channel of these cells are
not properly dimensioned.
VI. CONCLUSION</p>
      <p>The analysis of traffic channels in an network existing
showed that TCH congestion beyond the acceptable 2%
threshold for traffic channel (TCH) occurred in 154 cells out
of 742 cells investigated.</p>
      <p>The busy hour TCH congestion analysis showed that the
congestion depends on CSSR and BH traffic. The CSSR and
BH traffic has an average correlation coefficient of 0.9 and
0.6 respectively for the cells. The strong correlation showed
that the knowledge of CSSR and busy traffic can be used to
predict TCH congestion which is crucial for cellular network
optimization and resource management.</p>
      <p>DCR
FC0496B
FC0362C
2
FC0494B</p>
      <p>FC0301C
98
2</p>
      <p>FC0430C
FC0038B
98</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>CSSR</title>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>HOSR FC0725C FC0496B FC0494B FC0430C FC0396B FC0393C FC0385B FC0362C FC0301C FC0038B NCC</title>
      <p>0.20
DCR
FC0725C FC0496B FC0494B FC0430C FC0396B FC0393C
FC0385B FC0362C FC0301C FC0038B NCC</p>
    </sec>
  </body>
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