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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Model of Neuro-Fuzzy Prediction of Confirmation Timeout in a Mobile Ad Hoc Network</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Igor Konstantinov</string-name>
          <email>konstantinov@bsu.edu.ru</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Kostiantyn Polshchykov</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Sergej Lazarev</string-name>
          <email>lazarev@bsu.edu.ru</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Olha Polshchykova</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Belgorod State University</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Pobeda Street 85, 308015 Belgorod</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="RU">Russia</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date>
        <year>2016</year>
      </pub-date>
      <fpage>174</fpage>
      <lpage>186</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>Confirmation timeout (Round Trip Time, RTT) is an important value in data networks. Correct prediction of this characteristic allows us to estimate the network load in order to adequately select packet sending and retransmission parameters. Approximate heuristic models are used in the Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) for Round Trip Time evaluation. The values of the coeficients in these models were obtained experimentally for fixed topology networks. Therefore, the use of these models in a dynamic topology network (mobile ad-hoc network) is ineficient. This article represents an RTT prediction model based on application of fuzzy neural network theory. This model relies upon zeroorder Sugeno-Type Fuzzy Inference algorithm. The input values of fuzzy neural network are RTT values measured in the current and two previous cycles. The output value is RTT value expected in the next cycle. The proposed model is set up and examined by means of simulation experiments. In these experiments the functioning of mobile ad-hoc network which is used for communication software while counteracting emergencies was simulated.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>neuro-fuzzy prediction</kwd>
        <kwd>round trip time</kwd>
        <kwd>mobile ad hoc networks</kwd>
        <kwd>dangerous construction sites</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>
        Introduction
Mobile ad hoc networks (MANET) are a promising direction in the development
of telecommunication technologies [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ]. With its decentralized structure, ad hoc
networks provide the ability to transmit information when nodes are moving
randomly and under the impact of destructive factors [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2 ref3">2, 3</xref>
        ]. Due to rapid
deployment, autonomous power of each node, high survivability and the ability
to deliver messages with dynamically changing topology, ad hoc network can
be used for communication on dangerous construction sites [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ]. Construction of
dangerous objects is carried out under the threat of destructive and damaging
natural and man-made factors that can cause explosions, fire, collapse, flooding,
radiation, poisoning and other emergencies.
      </p>
      <p>
        The process of information exchange in a mobile ad hoc network is based
on the implementation of the packet data transfer. One of the important
characteristics in this case is RTT. Correct prediction of this value allows us to
estimate the network load to adequately select the parameters of packet sending
and retransmissions. Approximate heuristic models are used in the TCP for its
evaluation [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5 ref6">5, 6</xref>
        ]. The values of the coefficients in these models were obtained
experimentally for networks with a fixed topology, that is why their use in the
ad hoc networks does not give the desired effect. As a result, time of
information delivery increases significantly, which is unacceptable in the construction
of dangerous buildings, as the life and health of builders, as well as the
extent of damage to constructed facilities, depend on the operational efficiency of
messages receiving in emergencies. Therefore, the development of an adequate
RTT forecasting model in the mobile ad hoc network is a topical applied science
problem, the solution of which is represented in the following researches.
2
      </p>
      <p>Development of Neuro-Fuzzy Model
The neuro-fuzzy model is suggested to predict RTT in an ad hoc network. The
following values are used in this model: 
is RTT value measured in the current
cycle;   1 is RTT value measured in the previous cycle;   2 is RTT value
measured in the cycle preceding the previous one. The model allows us to
calcycles.
culate the estimated value  ̃︁</p>
      <p>of the confirmation timeout for each of the next</p>
      <p>
        Construction of the model is carried out on the criterion of minimal
complexity. The following parameters correspond to this criterion: fuzzy inference
algorithm is the zero-order Sugeno [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ], the number of membership functions for
each input value is 2, the shape of membership functions for each input value
is triangular, neuronal learning algorithm is error propagation [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ]. The model is
using the following fuzzy rulebase:
 (
 (
=  1)
=  1)
(  1 =  1)
      </p>
      <p>(  2 =  1), ℎ
(  1 =  1)</p>
      <p>(  2 =  2), ℎ
 (
=  2)
(  1 =  2)</p>
      <p>(  2 =  2), ℎ</p>
      <p>2;  1 ...  8 are individual conclusions of the fuzzy rules.</p>
      <p>Type and parameters of the membership functions for each input value are
shown in Fig. 1, Fig. 2 and Fig. 3.</p>
      <p>Mathematical and Information Technologies, MIT-2016 | Information technologies
1 µ1(M) µ2(M)
Aggregation procedure is performed by the second layer of neurons:
 1 =  1( ) ∧  1(  1</p>
      <p>) ∧  1(  1);
 2 =  1( ) ∧  1(  1) ∧  2(  1);</p>
      <p>...</p>
      <p>8 =  2( ) ∧  2(  1) ∧  2(  1).</p>
      <p>The model of forecasting Round Trip Time includes four structural neural
layers. Fuzzification procedure is performed by means of the first layer of neurons:
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
(13)</p>
      <p>Activation is a part of the defuzzification procedure. Calculation of the
amount of aggregated results ∑︀
8
 =1   and the weighted sum of the aggregate
results ∑︀ 8=1     are performed by means of the third layer of neurons.</p>
      <p>The final part of defuzzification procedure is performed by means of the
fourth layer:

︁̃
=
︀∑ 8=1    
︀∑ 8=1  
.</p>
      <p>
        In order to obtain the coefficient values needed to calculate membership
function, it is required to set the weights of neurons of the first layer. Training
of the neurons of the third layer is needed for evaluating the values of individual
fuzzy rules conclusions [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref11 ref12 ref13 ref14 ref15 ref9">9–15</xref>
        ]. The receiving of training data for model setup
and evaluation of neuro-fuzzy forecasting RTT are carried out on the basis of
modeling of various scenarios of ad-hoc network application for communication
on dangerous construction sites.
3
      </p>
      <p>Modeling Information Streams Transmission
Let us consider an example in which mobile ad hoc network is used for
communication in the construction of underground facilities. Fig. 4 and Fig. 5 show the
area of the construction works (limited by bold dotted line).</p>
      <p>2
4
7
1
8
5
3
+
6
9</p>
      <p>This building belongs to the dangerous construction projects, because works
on its construction are carried out in the conditions of a possible collapse of
rocks. Works are carried out by a personnel shift which consists of:
1) head of the shift who uses ad hoc node 1;
2) eight workers equipped with ad hoc nodes with numbers 2-9.</p>
      <p>Ad hoc units are denoted by small numbered circles, and coverage areas of
these units are limited by the corresponding circles of larger radius. The following
functions are performed by means of ad hoc nodes:</p>
      <p>1) video streams to monitor the status of the facility, conditions and the
course of the work;</p>
      <p>2) exchange of voice messages to control the construction process and the
coordination of countering emergencies;</p>
      <p>3) transfer of data on the functional status and current location coordinates of
the builders, as well as data of monitoring external conditions on the construction
site.</p>
      <p>In the given example the transmission of information streams is carried out
in an ad hoc network for a period of time of observation which lasts 50 seconds.
The characteristics of the streams are represented in Table 1 and Table 2.</p>
      <p>Fig. 4 shows the situation where the network topology remains unchanged
during the considered time interval. The routes of information streams
trans4
2
7
mission correspond to the broken lines which connect the nodes-senders and
nodes-recipients.</p>
      <p>Fig. 5 shows a scenario where an ad hoc network topology changes due to
the collapse of rock, which began at time   =4 s. Collapse zone is highlighted
in gray. As a result of emergency workers who used ad hoc nodes 6 and 9 were
in the collapse zone and node 6 malfunctioned (corresponding circle in Fig. 5 is
crossed).</p>
      <p>In response to the collapse, workers with ad hoc nodes 3-5, 8 and 9 have
moved. The locations of these nodes at the initial time in Fig. 5 are marked
by the dashed circles. In the modified network structure in Fig. 5 routes that
transmit information streams (numbered 2, 3, 5–8) differ from the corresponding
streams marked in Fig. 4.</p>
      <p>Dynamism of network topology had an impact on the radio channels workload
and throughput available for transmission of data flows. For example, a radio
channel connecting the node 2 to node 1, except for the main streams of 1, 4
and 6, additional streams 2 and 8 started to transmit.</p>
      <p>The responsiveness of the node 1 receiving the data file transmitted from the
node 9 is of great importance in an emergency. This file contains information
about the current parameters of health status and location of the worker who
has been exposed to the collapse. On the basis of the data head of the shift
can quickly and effectively coordinate the actions of other workers to rescue the
injured builder.</p>
      <p>
        For the file to be delivered, streams 4 and 5 need to be transferred. The
combination of these interrelated streams is called a controlled flow (CF) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">16</xref>
        ].
The closed circuit formed by the channels through which CF is transferred is
called CF-circuit (Fig. 6).
      </p>
      <p>Node 9
(Sender)
hannel 6</p>
      <p>C
C
hannel 1</p>
      <p>Node 5</p>
      <p>Node 2
Channel 5</p>
      <p>Channel 2
Node 5</p>
      <p>Node 2</p>
      <p>
        Duration of data file delivery from node 9 to node 1 is directly dependent on
the value  ( ), the current CF-circuit throughput available for CF transmission.
To calculate this value, one should use the expression:
 ( ) = 
{  ( )},
where   ( ) is the current value of the channel throughput  of the CF-circuit
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17">17</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>The value   ( ) can be figured out from the formula:
  ( ) =
︃{ 0,
 −  ( () ) ,   ( ) &lt;  ;
  ( ) ≥  ;
where  is the throughput of the radio channel;   ( ) is the current value of
the channel throughput  required to transmit real-time streams;   ( ) is the
number of data streams, having to be transmitted over the channel by the time
 ,   ( ) ≥ 1.</p>
      <p>The value   ( ) can be determined using the following expression:

︁∫</p>
      <p>=
 ( ) ,
where  is the size of the message transmitted by data flow.
(14)
(15)
(16)
(17)
(18)
(19)
  ( ) =</p>
      <p>( ),
︁∑

 =1
where   ( ) is the current value of the channel  throughput required for
realtime stream transmission  ;  is the number of real-time streams, which need to
be transmitted on the CF-circuit channels.</p>
      <p>The value of   ( ) can be found from the formula:
  ( ) =
︂{     ,</p>
      <p>
        0,
 &lt;  

≤  &lt;  
;

or  ≥  
,
is required on real-time stream  channel  ;  

beginning and the end of transmission of real-time stream  .
and 


where   is the value of the bandwidth of the channel  required to transmit
real-time stream  [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref18">18</xref>
        ];   is the value showing whether the transmission channel
are instants of the
      </p>
      <p>The minimum possible duration of the CF transmission can be determined
using the following formula:
 
=</p>
      <p>−  
,

where  
stream transmission without packet loss and an ideal correspondence between
the intensity of sending data of the stream and the bandwidth of CF-circuit
is starting time of CF transmission;  
is closure time of
CFThe value</p>
      <p>this, use the formula:
available for the transmission.</p>
      <p>is calculated on the basis of the obtained values  ( ). To do
E(t),
Kb/s
400
300
200
100

1
2
3
4

1
2
3
4
5
6
  , bit/s
256
128
128
256
 =1
0
0
1
0
0
0
E(t),
Kb/s
800
600
400
200
12 14 16 18 20 22 24 t, s</p>
      <p>To calculate the function  ( ) in the case shown in Fig. 4 and Fig. 5, we used
data contained in Table 3 and Table 4.</p>
      <p>Using these inputs, the function  ( ) is calculated and its form is shown in
Fig. 7. The fixed network topology function  ( ) has the form shown in Fig. 8.</p>
      <p>Analysis of Fig. 7 and Fig. 8 shows that the change in the network
topology during information exchange leads to a significant deceleration of data file
transmission duration. In a network with a dynamic topology the value   is
set to 39.7 s, and in case of a fixed network structure it is   =24.2 s.
4</p>
      <p>Setting Parameters of the Model and the Evaluation of
the Efectiveness of Its Application
In real operating conditions an ad hoc network overload and packet loss
frequently occur, so the actual value of the data file transfer duration can
significantly exceed the calculated value   . To evaluate these characteristics a
number of simulation experiments were made, in which various scenarios of
applying an ad hoc network for providing connectivity on dangerous construction
sites were simulated. For this purpose, a simulation model of information streams
transmissions in a network with dynamic topology was used. It was developed
in MatLab Simulink software environment. The simulation results provided
evidence for setting developed neuro-fuzzy model forecasting round trip time. On
the basis of these data the training matrix of the following form is made:
⎛
⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜⎜
⎝
 1
 2</p>
      <p>.
 
.</p>
      <p>2
 3
.</p>
      <p>3
 4
.</p>
      <p>5 ⎟
 ( +1)  ( +2)  (.+3) ⎟⎟⎟⎟
. . . ⎟⎠</p>
      <p>4 ⎞
 ( −3)  ( −2)  ( −1)  
(20)
where   is a round trip time of confirmation in the loop  ;  is the number of
cycles in each simulation experiment,  =750.</p>
      <p>Setting neuro-fuzzy model was carried out using software tools Fuzzy Logic
Toolbox. Table 5 shows the results of training the neurons of the first layer, while
Table 6 contains the results of training the neurons of the third layer.</p>
      <p>To assess the efficiency of the developed and customized models, a number
of simulations for the transfer of information streams in an ad hoc network were
conducted. The selection of retransmission was simulated on the basis of the
suggested neuro-fuzzy forecasting RTT and the classical model of evaluation of this
quantity used in TCP. The results showed that the use of neuro-fuzzy
forecasting RTT in a large network load reduces deviations of timeout retransmission
on 5,7-19,2 percents. This contributes to minimizing retransmissions count and
average data stream transmission time by 4.2-9.6 percents.
Thus, the model of neuro-fuzzy prediction of confirmation timeout in the mobile
ad hoc network is synthesized. The model includes four neuron layers, performing
fuzzy inference procedure (fuzzification, aggregation, revitalization and
defuzzification). To adjust the weights neurons we used training data, reflecting the
dynamics of the RTT in the ad hoc network used for communication on
dangerous construction sites. Simulations have shown that the use of the proposed
model for selecting timeout retransmission will significantly reduce the duration
of the transmission data flows in the mobile ad hoc network.</p>
      <p>Acknowledgements. The research have been carried out with the financial
support of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation (the
unique identifier of the project is RFMEFI57815X0138).</p>
    </sec>
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