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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Developing a Pedagogical Intervention Support based on Bayesian Networks</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>J. P. Martínez Bastida</string-name>
          <email>jpbastida@gmail.com</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>E. V. Gavrilenko</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>A. G. Chukhray</string-name>
          <email>achukhray@gmail.com</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="editor">
          <string-name>Key Terms. Modeling Systems in Education.</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>National Aerospace University</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>KhAI, Kharkiv, Ukraine (jpbastida, lm77191220</addr-line>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>This paper proposes an approach for developing pedagogical interventions support in information technologies for education based on Bayesian networks. In this paper, we show how the presented approach is able to automate pedagogical interventions in Model-tracing cognitive tutors (MTCTs). The paper discusses a novel Bayesian network topology to assess student's mastery to provide pedagogical interventions. Preliminary results to assess effectiveness of the proposed approach were obtained by implementing it in a MTCT called TITUS.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>Bayesian networks</kwd>
        <kwd>model-tracing</kwd>
        <kwd>cognitive tutor</kwd>
        <kwd>pedagogical intervention</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>
        Cognitive models (CM) are an integral part of developing Model-tracing cognitive
tutors (MTCTs) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref2">1, 2</xref>
        ]. Various MTCTs have successfully been applied over the last
decades, they are capable to trace the student’s steps while he is interacting with the
cognitive tutor and their implementation has proved a positive impact in the learners [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref2 ref3 ref4">1-4</xref>
        ].
CMs require a proper understanding of the knowledge involved in a step (student’s
action), problem-solving strategies or principles in a given learning domain.
      </p>
      <p>
        A CM should be able to interpret student’s recurrent behavioral patterns and
tendencies that reflect a way of thinking in order to provide constructive pedagogical
interventions. Therefore, a MTCT is always “interested” on the way a student processes and
assimilates the relevant knowledge components, the result of this can be called as the
learner’s meta-cognition model. This model is built by tracing and analyzing the actions
when a student commits steps to accomplish certain task, but steps can be recurrent in
terms of the way that knowledge is required, in other words; how tasks are presented.
Interpretation for assessing mastery in students is a very important feature in an
intelligent tutoring system (ITS) that involves uncertainty information. Moreover, assessment
of mastery in a student and keep track of it require uncertainty reasoning, since this
assessment leads to monitor cognitive processes that are not always explicitly
observable. Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a widely used approach for uncertainty modeling
in ITSs. This technique combines the rigorous probabilities formalism with a graphical
representation and efficient inference mechanisms [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5 ref6 ref7">5-7</xref>
        ]. For implementing and testing
the pedagogical interventions support proposed in this work, a Technical Intellectual
Tutoring System (TITUS) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ] was developed. The curriculum in TITUS has been built
in accordance with the signal-parametric approach for fault-tolerant systems [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        This work is based on the hypothesis that some students are less able to look for help
when they need it or get closer to a person to get it, e.g. the teacher or other means of
information, communication or learning support, due to the lack of meta-cognitive
skills for “help-seeking”, besides a help-seeking student becomes a better learner [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ].
Mainly, TITUS supports the base of learning by doing, help-seeking instructions and
self-analyzing. These features have been tested in learning platforms and cognitive
tutors and they prove to raise student’s scores [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2 ref3 ref6 ref7">2, 3, 6, 7</xref>
        ].
2
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Assessment model for determining mastery</title>
      <p>
        Bayesian networks are a formalization to manage uncertainty and they have widely
been employed in ITSs [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5 ref6">5, 6</xref>
        ]. BNs based on the Knowledge Tracing approach affect
prior probabilities of mastery in Knowledge Components (KC) equally. Thus, when
multiple KCs are involved in a step and the step is incorrect, all probabilities of mastery
will equally decrease in every KC involved in the step, without taking in account if they
were or were not misused. BN presented on Fig. 1 implements a Diagnostic Model
(DM) that improves assessment of mastery in the case above exposed. This topology
assumes that each step depends on individual KCs. Thus, the set of relevant KCs in a
step are individual cognitive processes; when a student attempt to complete a task, KCs
can be applied independently one from another, so their posterior probability of mastery
should be assessed separately. This BN consists of four nodes: Kt, St+1, DM and Kt+1,
where Kt is the probability of mastery of certain KC or skill at t time; St+1 is a step at
moment t+1; DM is a diagnostic model that is directly linked to the step and influences
the assessment of mastery; and Kt+1 is the probability of mastery at t+1 moment. ¬Kt,
¬St+1, ¬DM and ¬Kt+1 are the respective complementary probabilities of mastery.
      </p>
      <p>DM</p>
      <p>St+1
Kt</p>
      <p>Kt+1</p>
      <p>The probability P(Kt+1) of mastery certain knowledge component at t moment after
a student’s correct step is obtained with (1).</p>
      <p>P  Kt1  P  Kt |St1,DM  P  Kt1|Kt ,St1,DM  P St1 P DM  
 PKt |St1,DM P Kt1|Kt ,St1,DM PSt1P DM 
 P Kt |St1,DM P Kt1|Kt ,St1,DM PSt1PDM 
 PKt |St1,DM P Kt1|Kt ,St1,DM PSt1PDM </p>
      <p> P Kt |St1,DM P Kt1|Kt ,St1,DM PSt1P DM 
 PKt |St1,DM P Kt1|Kt ,St1,DM PSt1P DM 
 P Kt |St1,DM P Kt1|Kt ,St1,DM PSt1PDM 
 PKt |St1,DM P Kt1|Kt ,St1,DM PSt1PDM 
Conditional probabilities P(Kt|St+1,¬DM) and P(¬Kt|St+1,¬DM) in (1) are obtained with
(2) and (3) respectively, where α is a normalization coefficient. The evidences in a
student’s action are denoted by P(St+1) = 1 (correct step) and P(DM) = 0 (deactivated).</p>
      <p>P  Kt |St1,DM     P Kt ,St 1,DM ,Kt 1</p>
      <p>Kt1
   P Kt PSt1|Kt PDM |Kt PKt 1|Kt ,St 1,DM </p>
      <p>Kt1
P Kt |St 1,DM     PKt ,St 1,DM ,Kt 1 </p>
      <p>Kt1
   PKt PSt1|Kt PDM |Kt  PKt1|Kt ,St1,DM </p>
      <p>Kt1</p>
      <p>Therefore, a step analyzer assesses each relevant KC in the actual step in order to
determine the corresponding pedagogical actions.
3</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Model for selecting the next to do</title>
      <p>
        Implementation of the model for selecting a task requires a set of tasks separated by
sequential learning modules and complexity levels. Under the macroadaptation
approach, three or five levels of complexity are commonly instantiated as standard for
educational proposes [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ] (e.g. very easy, easy, average, difficult, and very difficult).
      </p>
      <p>Modules should be created so that in each of them, there were two tasks as minimum
in each level of complexity, with the aim to have alternatives of choice. Moreover, all
the set of tasks in a module must cover the complete set of relevant KCs included in it,
and they should be trained more than once at each level of complexity.</p>
      <p>
        Set of tasks in every module should be developed as an interwoven network over
the relevant KCs that it contains. Thus, it is preferable that every KC should be trained
at least by two different tasks. This relationship between a KC and tasks increases the
probability of mastering it by increasing the times of possible situations that students
might employ it, this is well known because it is the classic approach that is commonly
implemented in the classrooms. Task Model (MT) is represented in (4) and its
boundaries in (5)-(7), where T is a task, KW defines a knowledge component, i is the task
(1)
(2)
(3)
identifier, j ϵ [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref5">1, 5</xref>
        ] represents the levels of complexity, k is the module for the task T,
and l is the identification number for the knowledge component. An example of the MT
above explained is depicted on Fig. 2.
selected (NT*). This case is certainly possible at the first time a student uses the ITS.
On the other hand, the student model (MS) is constantly updated while the student is
working with the ITS, for this reason, MS is a dynamic representation of the student.
MS can be represented by (8) and (9), where S represent the student, q is his
identification number, P ⊂ ℜ in the interval [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">0, 1</xref>
        ] that represents the probability of mastery, N
are the attempts (steps) realized.
The prior information is initialized if a student Sq uses the ITS for the first time, thus
for each Sq: ∀ , ∀ , ∀ MS1 (Sq, Tijk) = {0}, ∀ , ∀ MS2 (Sq, KWkl) = {0.5}. After this,
first module is selected and complexity level is set to the middle one. Therefore, a next
task (NT) with KCs that have lower probabilities of mastery among tasks in a module
(MZ) is chosen by means of (10).
      </p>
      <p>NT  MT -1  KWkl


</p>
      <p>MS 2  Sq , KWkl   min 
4</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Models for defining complexity level and assessing probability of mastery</title>
      <p>Once a task has been chosen, the ITS waits a step. After the student has committed it,
the step analyzer is triggered and assesses probability of mastering the relevant KCs in
the task: Soli(NT)  {0,1}, NT  { NT, NT', NT*}, and updates the attempt as well. The
complexity level is adjusted according to the piecewise model in (13).
 + 1,  (
 (</p>
      <p>
        ) = 1)( &lt; 
 = { − 1,  (
 ( ) = 0)( &lt; 
 ,  ℎ 
( ))
( ))
A module is completed when the KCs that conform it are mastered, thus a threshold
value (pKW = 0.85) helps estimating it [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ]. Expressions (14) and (15) are used for
determining probability of mastery.
      </p>
      <p> KWkl
NT '  NT 


</p>
      <p>MS1 Sq ,Tijk   min 
Processes described by (10)-(12) will repeat meanwhile the student has not mastered
the KCs in the current module; only then, the ITS passes to the closest upper module:
k + 1 and again it accordingly repeats the processes of choosing a next task until
k &lt; max(k).</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Method for pedagogical feedback support</title>
      <p>Pedagogical feedback is a “service” that may be offered at the moment the student
makes steps. Although, a hint could be supplied before, during or after committing a
step to support or assist the student. Hints are intended to avoid frustration or remarking
repetitive misconceptions or error patterns.</p>
      <p>However, in this work, it is only proposed a general method for supplying
pedagogical feedback after the student has submitted a step. Nevertheless, it can be used as a
base for developing other supporting pedagogical methodologies, but this may increase
complexity of the software to make it capable of tracking every minimal student’s
action even over the tutor’s GUI for interpreting and “translate” it into a pedagogical
intervention. The method for the pedagogical feedback support is executed when the
student’s step is submitted and the step analyzer already assessed the relevant KCs
involved in the current task.
(12)
(13)
(14)
(15)
Ɐk Soli (NT), NT ϵ { NT, NT', NT*}
Start</p>
      <p>Analyze: Ɐl{KWkl} : {Soli (NT)} → [Tijk]
{Soli (NT)} ↔ 1</p>
      <p>MS1 : {Sq}x{Tijk}→({Nikr}+1)</p>
      <p>Give: {min(FBl)} : {Soli (NT)} →1
{Soli (NT)} ↔ 0</p>
      <p>
        MS1 : {Sq}x{Tijk}→({Nikw}+1)
({Nikw} = 1) → {min(FBl)}, {Tijk} → [k]
Give: Ɐl {FBl} = 2 : {Nikw}  [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2 ref3">2, 3</xref>
        ], {Tijk}→[k]
      </p>
      <p>Give: Ɐl {FBl} = 3 : {Nikw} &gt; 3, {Tijk} → [k]
End
In addition, it computes how many times the student has properly employed a specific
KC (Nikr); how many times he has misused it (Nikw), and accordingly the inner loop
returns some classification of feedback (FBl)  {1: minimal feedback, 2: hint about
error, 3: specific error feedback}. For the first time a KC is misused, a minimal
feedback (FBl → 1) is returned, such as “correct” or “incorrect”. For the second and third
time, it will return an error-specific hint or feedback (FBl → 2), i.e. “You should pay
more attention on the value of the transfer coefficient” or “The class of fault you have
chosen is not correct”, “Static characteristics for this class of fault are depicted on the
figure, identify them”, etc. It has been determined second level feedback should be
given twice as a very simple mechanism to minimize feedback abuse. Nevertheless,
other more advanced mechanisms may be implemented.</p>
      <p>On the fourth and over a misuse of a relevant KC has occurred, the tutor will return
and error-specific feedback, leading the student to review and study the corresponding
theory or related information to overcome the deficiencies on the corresponding KCs
in order to prevent this from occurring again and supporting a constructive learning
process. The tutor gives only delayed pedagogical feedback support in accordance with
the policies explained above and it will only give them right after the student had
submitted his step.
6</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>Implementation and experimental results</title>
      <p>
        TITUS [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ] was developed to implement and test the performance of the proposed
approach. The training program has three sequential modules and 29 relevant knowledge
components. Thus, for training the complete set of KCs, 43 tasks were developed.
Moreover, some of these tasks have more than one variant; this feature increases the
set of tasks up to 212 different tasks that the TITUS may present to the student and they
are grouped by level of complexity as well.
      </p>
      <p>Experimental results for evaluating the effectiveness of the pedagogical
interventions provided by TITUS, were obtained by means of the analysis of 38 students’
performance, separated in two groups as follows:
1. 19 students used TITUS without any kind of pedagogical support during the learning
process (Group A);
2. 19 students used TITUS with a full implementation of the pedagogical support
(Group B);</p>
      <p>Experimental results from Group A are depicted on Fig.3(a). Average probability
of mastery for KCs is clearly below the threshold pKW. On the other hand, when Group
B used TITUS, the probability of mastery for every KC considerably increased, and
this result is shown in Fig. 3(b). Times when student has misused a knowledge
component are shown in Fig. 4.</p>
      <p>(a)
(b)</p>
      <p>Attempts in Fig. 5 say which tasks resulted problematic for students, but also shows
the adaptability of the proposed approach and how it was developed according to the
student’s performance.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43</p>
      <p>Task
Fig. 5. Total and incorrect attempts for each task</p>
      <p>Total Attempts Incorrect attempts</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-7">
      <title>Conclusions</title>
      <p>This paper proposes an approach for developing pedagogical interventions support in
information technologies for education. A novel assessment model based on Bayesian
networks for providing pedagogical interventions was presented as well. It provides
learners a cognitive pedagogical support, like hints and feedback. It has the ability to
build a student model from each student and provide individual pedagogical
interventions based on it, in order to actively adapt the learning process according to the
student’s performance.</p>
      <p>Results demonstrate effectiveness of the approach based on the increment of mastery
in learners. This effectiveness was obtained by developing a MTCT called TITUS that
was employed with regular students in a master degree program of the task domain.
Students that received pedagogical interventions obtained a 42% better performance
than those ones that did not receive any kind of assistance, and it proves the positive
educational impact in students when the proposed approach is implemented in a MTCT.
In the near future, we expect to develop an extended version of the BN model and
pedagogical feedback support by including for instance help abuse among others.</p>
    </sec>
  </body>
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