=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-1876/paper05
|storemode=property
|title=Unpacking the Mandate of Heaven Argument
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-1876/paper05.pdf
|volume=Vol-1876
|authors=Aernout Schmidt,Kunbei Zhang
|dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/ijcai/SchmidtZ16
}}
==Unpacking the Mandate of Heaven Argument==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-1876/paper05.pdf
Proceedings of CMNA 2016 - Floris Bex, Floriana Grasso, Nancy Green (eds)
Unpacking the Mandate of Heaven Argument!
Aernout Schmidt Kunbei Zhang
Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands Chongqing Technology and Business University
Aernout.schmidt@gmail.com zhangkunbei@outlook.com
Abstract valued institutions, their processes and their combinations.
Empirical studies of how our understanding of different in-
We consider available computational models of the
mandate-of-heaven argument and their uses for stitutions, such as law, economics, culture and nature interact
multidisciplinary debate. As their origins are from are particularly needed, in order to inform the average voting
econometric and formal-reasoning disciplines, we civilian to help him better understand the whole, and support
submit that they are incomprehensible to both the him to join politically salient constitutional processes.
the average civilian and to non-economist scholars. Against this background, we offer a bold (maybe controver-
We thus identify a serious condition that prevents sial) exploration: using a simple theoretical model which
effective, diverse scholarly argumentative input to invites many application extensions from the four forces
the debate. We offer four heuristics to address it. mentioned, and present it using 4 heuristics that we offer as a
first model. We set our ball rolling by using them to unpack
1 Introduction an econometric model on democratic regime change in
The ‘Mandate-of-Heaven’ concept scaffolds Chinese law [Walløe 2012] based on an earlier model in [Acemoğlu and
and order for millennia. An emperor and his reign were given Robinson 2001].
power through the conditional mandate of the heavenly au- 2 Unpacking the Model with Four Heuristics
thority. Currently, it identifies the government’s power to
govern the people, which have in turn the power to withdraw We base our heuristics on [Wieringa 1997] and introduce
their support and thus end the mandate. The mechanism is them apodictically due to space constraints.
operational in both democratic and non-democratic regimes. 2.1 From Technical/Formal to Bites/Pseudocode
It is a constitutional universal. It can even be recognized in Our first heuristic is to summarize the formal model under
the EU, which is currently facing the combined risks of Fi- scrutiny in natural-language ‘bites’ and pseudo code. Bites as
nancial Instability, Muslim Extremism and Mass Muslim suggested in [Kennedy 1997]. This will naturally have
Refugee Immigration that may pull the Union towards dis- elements that can be understood as pseudo code. Below we
integration. show an example of the Walløe model in five bullets:
1.1 The problem •! Two regime types are distinguished: democracies
We address the pros and cons of disciplinary diversity (cf. (D-states) and non-democracies (E-states). Inhabitants are
[Page 2010]) through the common-knowledge level of the either elite (E-members, [also: the rich, r]) or poor
public debate, which we assume to be at the non-specialist, (P-members, also: the poor, p). P-members like D-states.
‘natural-argumentation’ level (which is also the default level E-members like E-states. There are more P-members than
of debate between diverse specialists). E-members. All regimes impose taxes.
•! Regime changes (one time-cycle temporary R-states)
1.2 Four Diverse Valuation Attractor Forces depend on income distributions determined by taxes. They
People may e.g. be attracted by ideas from specialist views are less costly in recessions. Fiscal redistribution may be
upon (1) how wealth helps them face financial burdens that generated by underlying asset redistribution (e.g., education).
are loaded onto them (economics), (2) how public order helps The level of income is stochastic.
them protect their freedoms (law), (3) how social embed- •! The economy has consumption good(s) and asset(s)
dedness helps them to culturally preserve behavioral heuris- [capital]. In the initial state the E-member has more capital
tics (cf. [Pagel 2012]) over the generations (social sciences) than the P-member. Inequality and total output can be
and (4) how knowledge helps them face the natural condi- modeled and computed. There are time periods/cycles.
tions of their environments (the sciences). Applying [Lessig •! In D-states: P-members can vote. Tax is set by the median
2006] we identify four operational value attractor forces: voter (P-member). P-members set taxes. P-members impose
wealth, freedoms, culture and knowledge. higher taxes on E-members. E-members can go for a coup
1.3 Complexity – Four Heuristics (towards the E-state). The anticipation of equality imposed
The flaw in individual specialist accounts is their failure to may induce coups.
•! In E-states: P-members cannot vote. P-members can threat
also discuss the complexities of ‘the whole creature’
with and/or go for revolt (towards the D-state). Tax is set by
[Wheeler 2006]. Hence it is time that researchers begin to
E-members. E-members may offer concessions on income
pay closer attention to a comprehensive scope of differently
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Proceedings of CMNA 2016 - Floris Bex, Floriana Grasso, Nancy Green (eds)
distribution to prevent revolt (limits, credibility). E-members explain and predict, each employing its proper specialist
can extend the franchise. Thus ‘bites’ are perspective.
natural-argumentation semiotics (cf. [Kennedy 1997]) linked How then, do we model ‘the whole creature?’ The Walløe
to formal-modeling semiotics. approach accommodates the discursive dynamics that
support regime stability during the last 70 years in China
2.2 Mine for Controversial Assumptions from an econometric perspective. It appears to be adequate
Many formal models hide their debatable assumptions. Our in a descriptive sort of way. Yet, through the lenses of legal,
second heuristic for understanding formal models that claim sociological and scientific specialists this success rests on
to represent situations and processes in the real world is to debatable assumptions, so much so, that to them the results
mine for assumptions. These may be hidden in choices of lose validity. Our four heuristics allow to make and discuss
value repertoires (like no more than 2 regime forms or no these differences in a transparent manner (especially the
more than 2 social positions). They may also be a corollary of assumption validation as in Table 1). We claim that thus the
the aim for solvable math. Agent-based modeling might help escalating parochial distrust between different disciplinary
a bit here . Of course there may be an abundance of other clans can be addressed in a constructive manner.
reasons to pick and choose assumptions, which ought put one
on the alert. It is productive to mine for assumptions and 2.3 Conclusion and Application
establish from which disciplinary perspective they are Unpacking the Mandate of Heaven models, we found them
controversial as shown in Table 1 (columns 1-4 represent the not acceptable to scaffold conclusions on how to detect and
four disciplinary forces), supporting the cross-disciplinary address the risks of regime change. The (main EU) risk of
debate on the whole creature. The way to address the falling apart was not even available in the formalized
problem of Section 1.1 is: debate the minuses of Table 1 vocabulary. Consequently, we looked for a problem field that
away, in cross-disciplinary sessions and adapt the model we can discuss with more confidence. To this end we decided
accordingly. to confront empirical, legal, economic and social
perspectives (also as a sequel to [Schmidt et al. 2007]) on the
Assumption 1 2 3 4 war on file sharing (from 1999-2016) and to report on our
Agents are identical (also their preferences) + - + - results in the context of complexity theory and law. These
There are no free-rider problems + - - - results indicate that formal modeling, empirical results and
Capital in the economy is constant - - + - normative counterfactuals can fruitfully be investigated in
Democracy or non-democracy + - - + cross-disciplinary (or hybrid) teams, for instance by
Table 1: Debatable assumptions (Example) discussing the behaviors of agent-based models.
2.3 Conditional Actor-Responsibility Tables References
Many specialist models tend to hide how they handle
dynamics. For this, we offer our third heuristic. Offering [Acemoğlu and Robinson 2001] Daron Acemoğlu and James
Tables with three columns: available actions, authorized Robinson. A theory of political transitions. American
actors and (input/output) conditions wherein they are Economic Review, 938–963, 2001.
relevant and should be prepared and made available will [Kennedy 1991] Duncan Kennedy. A Semiotics of Legal
support cross-disciplinary comrehension. Argument. Syracuse Law Review, 42, 75, 1991
[Lessig 2006] Lawrence Lessig. Code Version 2.0. Basic
2.4 Action-info and Action-responsibility Diagrams Books, 2006.
Our fourth heuristic is: draw at least one action-information [Page 2010]. Scott E. Page. Diversity and Complexity.
diagram and one sibling action-responsibility diagram ( using Princeton University Press, 2010.
Petrinet and use-case garammars – these are well-known
[Pagel 2012]. Mark Pagel. 2012. Wired for culture: origins of
techniqes from requirements engineering).
the human social mind. WW Norton & Company, 2012.
3 Discussion [Schmidt et al. 2007] Aernout Schmidt, Wilfred Dolfsma &
Our short explorations offer some clues about the particular Wim Keuvelaar. Fighting the War on File Sharing.
value of unpacking the mathematically fomulated T.M.C. Asser Press, 2007.
econometric model of the mandate-of-heaven argument. [Walløe, 2012] Anders Norbom Walløe. The Mandate of
The European society consists of hundreds of millions of Heaven: Why is the Chinese Communist Party still in
different people, enterprises, Member-State goverments and control of China? M.Phil. thesis, Department of
European agencies. These actors possess diverse beliefs and Economics University of Oslo, 2012
goals. Some are rich and some poor. Some conservative. [Wheeler 2006] Wendy Wheeler. The whole creature:
Some seek the stimulation of reform. They adapt as Complexity, biosemiotics and the evolution of culture.
circumstances change and as they change the circumstances Lawrence & Wishart Ltd., 2006.
(e.g. through technologic innovations, voting behaviors or [Wieringa 1997] R.J. Wieringa. Requirements Engineering:
law making). The aggregated interdependent actions of these Frameworks for Understanding. Wiley. 1997.
millions of actors produce the European society’s patterns
that both economic and non-economic researchers seek to
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