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<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Using Trust and Provenance for Content Filtering on the Semantic Web</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Jennifer Golbeck</string-name>
          <email>golbeck@cs.umd.edu</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Aaron Mannes</string-name>
          <email>awmannes@comcast.net</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Maryland Information Network Dynamics Lab, University of Maryland</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>8400 Baltimore Avenue, Suite 200, College Park, Maryland, 20740</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="US">USA</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date>
        <year>2006</year>
      </pub-date>
      <fpage>22</fpage>
      <lpage>26</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>Social networks are a popular movement on the web. Trust can be used effectively on the Semantic Web as annotations to social relationships. In this paper, we present a two level approach to integrating trust, provenance, and annotations in Semantic Web systems. We describe an algorithm for inferring trust relationships using provenance information and trust annotations in Semantic Web-based social networks. Then, we present two applications that combine the computed trust values with the provenance of other annotations to personalize websites. The FilmTrust system uses trust to compute personalized recommended movie ratings and to order reviews. An open source intelligence portal, Profiles In Terror, also has a beta system that integrates social networks with trust annotations. We believe that these two systems illustrate a unique way of using trust annotations and provenance to process information on the Semantic Web.</p>
      </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. INTRODUCTION</title>
      <p>Tracking the provenance of Semantic Web metadata can
be very useful for filtering and aggregation, especially when
the trustworthiness of the statements is at issue. In this
paper, we will present an entirely Semantic Web-based system
of using social networks, annotations, provenance, and trust
to control the way users see information.</p>
      <p>Social Networks have become a popular movement on the
web as a whole, and especially on the Semantic Web. The
Friend of a Friend (FOAF) vocabulary is an OWL format for
representing personal and social network information, and
data using FOAF makes up a significant percentage of all
data on the Semantic Web. Within these social networks,
users can take advantage of other ontologies for annotating
additional information about their social connections. This
may include the type of relationship (e.g. ”sibling”,
”significant other”, or ”long lost friend”), or how much they trust
the person that they know. Annotations about trust are
particularly useful, as they can be applied in two ways. First,
using the annotations about trust and the provenance of
those statements, we can compute personalized
recommendations for how much one user (the source) should trust
another unknown user (the sink) based on the paths that
connect them in the social network and the trust values along
those paths. Once those values can be computed, there is
a second application of the trust values. In a system where
users have made statements and we have the provenance
information, we can filter the statements based on how much
the individual user trusts the person who made the
annotation. This allows for a common knowledge base that is
personalized for each user according to who they trust.</p>
      <p>In this paper, we will present a description of social
networks and an algorithm for inferring trust relationships within
them. Then, we will describe two systems where trust is
used to filter, aggregate, and sort information: FilmTrust, a
movie recommender system, and Profiles in Terror, a portal
collecting open source intelligence on terrorist activities.
2.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>SOCIAL NETWORKS AND TRUST ON</title>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>THE SEMANTIC WEB</title>
      <p>
        Social networks on the Semantic Web are generally
created using the FOAF vocabulary [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ]. There are over 10,000,000
people with FOAF files on the web, describing their
personal information and their social connections [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ]. There are
several ontologies that extend FOAF, including the FOAF
Relationship Module [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ] and the FOAF Trust Module [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ].
These ontologies provide a vocabulary for users to annotate
their social relationships in the network. In this research,
we are particularly interested in trust annotations.
      </p>
      <p>Using the FOAF Trust Module, users can assign trust
ratings on a scale from 1 (low trust) to 10 (high trust).There are
currently around 3,000 known users with trust relationships
included in their FOAF profile. These statements about
trust are annotations of relationships. There are interesting
steps that can be taken once that information is aggregated.
We can choose a specific user, and look at all of the trust
ratings assigned to that person. With that information, we
can get an idea of the average opinion about the person’s
trustworthiness. Trust, however, is a subjective concept.
Consider the simple example of asking whether the
President is trustworthy. Some people believe very strongly that
he is, and others believe very strongly that he is not. In this
case, the average trust rating is not helpful to either group.
However, since we have provenance information about the
annotations, we can significantly improve on the average
case. If someone (the source) wants to know how much to
trust another person (the sink), we can look at the
provenance information for the trust assertions, and combine that
with the source’s directly assigned trust ratings, producing a
result that weights ratings from trusted people more highly
than those from untrusted people.</p>
      <p>In this section, we present an algorithm for inferring trust
relationships that combines provenance information with the
user’s direct trust ratings.
2.1</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Background and Related Work</title>
      <p>We present an algorithm for inferring trust relationships
in social networks, but this problem has been approached in
several ways before. Here, we highlight some of the major
contributions from the literature and compare and contrast
them with our approach.</p>
      <p>
        There are several algorithms that output trust inferences
([14], [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ]), but none of them produce values within the same
scale that users assign ratings. For example, many rely on
eigenvector based approaches that produce a ranking of the
trustworthiness, but the rankings do not translate to trust
values in the same scale.
      </p>
      <p>
        Raph Levin’s Advogato project [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ] also calculates a global
reputation for individuals in the network, but from the
perspective of designated seeds (authoritative nodes). His
metric composes certifications between members to determine
the trust level of a person, and thus their membership within
a group. While the perspective used for making trust
calculations is still global in the Advogato algorithm, it is much
closer to the methods used in this research. Instead of using
a set of global seeds, we let any individual be the starting
point for calculations, so each calculated trust rating is given
with respect to that person’s view of the network.
      </p>
      <p>
        Richardson et. al.[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ] use social networks with trust to
calculate the belief a user may have in a statement. This is
done by finding paths (either through enumeration or
probabilistic methods) from the source to any node which
represents an opinion of the statement in question,
concatenating trust values along the paths to come up with the
recommended belief in the statement for that path, and
aggregating those values to come up with a final trust value
for the statement. Current social network systems on the
Web, however, primarily focus on trust values between one
user to another, and thus their aggregation function is not
applicable in these systems.
2.2
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Issues for Inferring Trust</title>
      <p>When two individuals are directly connected in the
network, they can have trust ratings for one another. Two
people who are not directly connected do not have that trust
information available by default. However, the paths
connecting them in the network contain information that can
be used to infer how much they may trust one another.</p>
      <p>For example, consider that Alice trusts Bob, and Bob
trust Charlie. Although Alice does not know Charlie, she
knows and trusts Bob who, in turn, has information about
how trustworthy he believes Charlie is. Alice can use
information from Bob and her own knowledge about Bob’s
trustworthiness to infer how much she may trust Charlie.
This is illustrated in Figure 1.</p>
      <p>To accurately infer trust relationships within a social
network, it is important to understand the properties of trust
networks. Certainly, trust inferences will not be as accurate
as a direct rating. There are two questions that arise which
will help refine the algorithm for inferring trust: how will
the trust values for intermeidate people affect the accuracy
of the inferred value, and how will the length of the path
affect it.</p>
      <p>
        We expect that people who the user trusts highly will
tend to agree with the user more about the trustworthiness
of others than people who are less trusted. To make this
comparison, we can select triangles in the network. Given
nodes ni, nj, and nk, where there is a triangle such that
we have trust values tij, tik, and tkj, we can get a measure
of how trust of an intermediate person can affect accuracy.
Call Δ the difference between the known trust value from ni
to nk (tik) and the value from nj to nk (tik). Grouping the
Δ values by the trust value for the intermediate node (tij)
indicates on average how trust for the intermediate node
affects the accuracy of the recommended value. Several
studies [13],[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ] have shown a strong correlation between trust
and user similarity in several real-world networks.
      </p>
      <p>It is also necessary to understand how the paths that
connect the two individuals in the network affect the potential
for accurately inferring trust relationships. The length of a
path is determined by the number of edges the source must
traverse before reaching the sink. For example, source-sink
has length two. Does the length of a path affect the
agreement between individuals? Specifically, should the source
expect that neighbors who are connected more closely will
give more accurate information than people who are further
away in the network?</p>
      <p>
        In previous work [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ],[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ] this question has been addresses
using several real networks. The first network is part of the
Trust Project, a Semantic Web-based network with trust
values and approximately 2,000 users. The FilmTrust
network1, see Figure 2, is a network of approximately 700 users
oriented around a movie rating and review website. We will
use FilmTrust for several examples in this paper. Details
of the analysis can be found in the referenced work, but we
present an overview of the analysis here.
      </p>
      <p>
        To see the relationship between path length and trust,
we performed an experiment. We selected a node, ni, and
then selected an adjacent node, nj. This gave us a known
trust value tij. We then ignored the edge from ni to nj
and looked for paths of varying lengths through the network
that connected the two nodes. Using the trust values along
the path, and the expected error for those trust values, as
determined by the analysis of the correlation of trust and
similarity determined in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ]. Call this measure of error Δ.
This comparison is repeated for all neighbors of ni, and for
all ni in the network.
      </p>
      <p>For each path length, Table 1 shows the minimum averageΔ
(Δ). These are grouped according to the minimum trust
value along that path.</p>
      <p>In Figure 3, the effect of path length can be compared to
the effects of trust ratings. For example, consider the Δ for
trust values of 7 on paths of length 2. This is approximately
the same as the Δ for trust values of 10 on paths of length 3
(both are close to 1.5). The Δ for trust values of 7 on paths
of length 3 is about the same as the Δ for trust values of 9
on paths of length 4. A precise rule cannot be derived from
these values because there is not a perfect linear
relationship, and also because the points in Figure 3 are only the
minimum Δ among paths with the given trust rating.
2.3</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>TidalTrust: An Algorithm for Inferring</title>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-7">
      <title>Trust</title>
      <p>The effects of trust ratings and path length described in
the previous section guided the development of TidalTrust,
an algorithm for inferring trust in networks with continuous
rating systems. The following guidelines can be extracted
from the analysis of the previous sections: 1. For a fixed
trust rating, shorter paths have a lower Δ. 2. For a fixed
path length, higher trust ratings have a lower Δ. This
section describes how these features are used in the TidalTrust
algorithm.
2.3.1</p>
      <sec id="sec-7-1">
        <title>Incorporating Path Length</title>
        <p>The analysis in the previous section indicates that a limit
on the depth of the search should lead to more accurate
results, since the Δ increases as depth increases. If accuracy
1Available at http://trust.mindswap.org/FilmTrust
decreases as path length increases, as the earlier analysis
suggests, then shorter paths are more desirable. However,
the tradeoff is that fewer nodes will be reachable if a limit
is imposed on the path depth. To balance these factors, the
path length can vary from one computation to another.
Instead of a fixed depth, the shortest path length required to
connect the source to the sink becomes the depth. This
preserves the benefits of a shorter path length without limiting
the number of inferences that can be made.
2.3.2</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-7-2">
        <title>Incorporating Trust Values</title>
        <p>The previous results also indicate that the most accurate
information will come from the highest trusted neighbors.
As such, we may want the algorithm to limit the information
it receives so that it comes from only the most trusted
neighbors, essentially giving no weight to the information from
neighbors with low trust. If the algorithm were to take
information only from neighbors with the highest trusted
neighbor, each node would look at its neighbors, select those with
the highest trust rating, and average their results. However,
since different nodes will have different maximum values,
some may restrict themselves to returning information only
from neighbors rated 10, while others may have a
maximum assigned value of 6 and be returning information from
neighbors with that lower rating. Since this mixes in various
levels of trust, it is not an ideal approach. On the other end
of possibilities, the source may find the maximum value it
has assigned, and limit every node to returning information
only from nodes with that rating or higher. However, if the
source has assigned a high maximum rating, it is often the
case that there is no path with that high rating to the sink.
The inferences that are made may be quite accurate, but the
number of cases where no inference is made will increase. To
address this problem, we define a variable max that
represents the largest trust value that can be used as a minimum
threshold such that a path can be found from source to sink.
2.3.3</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-7-3">
        <title>Full Algorithm for Inferring Trust</title>
        <p>Incorporating the elements presented in the previous
sections, the final TidalTrust algorithm can be assembled. The
name was chosen because calculations sweep forward from
source to sink in the network, and then pull back from the
sink to return the final value to the source.</p>
        <p>X
tis =
j ∈ adj(j) | tij ≥ max</p>
        <p>X
j ∈ adj(j) | tij ≥ max
tijtjs
tij
(1)</p>
        <p>The source node begins a search for the sink. It will poll
each of its neighbors to obtain their rating of the sink. Each
neighbor repeats this process, keeping track of the current
depth from the source. Each node will also keep track of
the strength of the path to it. Nodes adjacent to the source
will record the source’s rating assigned to them. Each of
those nodes will poll their neighbors. The strength of the
path to each neighbor is the minimum of the source’s
rating of the node and the node’s rating of its neighbor. The
neighbor records the maximum strength path leading to it.
Once a path is found from the source to the sink, the depth
is set at the maximum depth allowable. Since the search is
proceeding in a Breadth First Search fashion, the first path
found will be at the minimum depth. The search will
continue to find any other paths at the minimum depth. Once
this search is complete, the trust threshold (max) is
established by taking the maximum of the trust paths leading to
the sink. With the max value established, each node can
complete the calculations of a weighted average by taking
information from nodes that they have rated at or above
the max threshold.
2.4</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-8">
      <title>Accuracy of TidalTrust</title>
      <p>As presented above, TidalTrust strictly adheres to the
observed characteristics of trust: shorter paths and higher
trust values lead to better accuracy. However, there are
some things that should be kept in mind. The most
important is that networks are different. Depending on the subject
(or lack thereof) about which trust is being expressed, the
user community, and the design of the network, the effect
of these properties of trust can vary. While we should still
expect the general principles to be the same−shorter paths
will be better than longer ones, and higher trusted people
will agree with us more than less trusted people−the
proportions of those relationships may differ from what was
observed in the sample networks used in this research.</p>
      <p>
        There are several algorithms that output trust inferences,
but none of them produce values within the same scale that
users assign ratings. Some trust algorithms form the Public
Key Infrastructure (PKI) are more appropriate for
comparison. A comparison of this algorithm to PKI can be found
in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ], but due to space limitations that comparison is not
included here. One direct comparison to make is to compare
the Δ from TidalTrust to the Δ from taking the simple
average of all ratings assigned to the sink as the
recommendation. As shown in Table 2, the TidalTrust recommendations
outperform the simple average in both networks, and these
results are statistically significant with p¡0.01. Even with
these preliminary promising results, TidalTrust is not
designed to be the optimal trust inference algorithm for every
network in the state it is presented here. Rather, the
algorithm presented here adheres to the observed rules of trust.
When implementing this algorithm on a network,
modifications should be made to the conditions of the algorithm
that adjust the maximum depth of the search, or the trust
threshold at which nodes are no longer considered. How and
when to make those adjustments will depend on the specific
features of a given network. These tweaks will not affect the
complexity of implementation.
3.
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-9">
      <title>USING TRUST TO PERSONALIZE CON</title>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-10">
      <title>TENT</title>
      <p>While the computation of trust values is in and of itself a
user of provenance and annotations together, the resulting
trust values are widely applicable for personalizing content.
If we have provenance information for annotations found
on the semantic web, and a social network with trust values
such that a user can compute the trustworthiness of the
person who asserted statement, then the information presented
to the user can be sorted, ranked, aggregated, and filtered
according to trust.</p>
      <p>In this section we will present two applications that use
trust in this way. The first, FilmTrust, is a movie
recommendation website backed by a social network, that uses
trust values to generate predictive recommendations and to
sort reviews. The second, Profiles in Terror, is a web portal
that collects open source intelligence on terrorist events.
3.1</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-11">
      <title>FilmTrust</title>
      <p>The social networking component of the website requires
users to provide a trust rating for each person they add as
a friend. When creating a trust rating on the site, users
are advised to rate how much they trust their friend about
movies. In the help section, when they ask for more help,
they are advised to, ”Think of this as if the person were to
have rented a movie to watch, how likely it is that you would
want to see that film.”</p>
      <p>Part of the user’s profile is a ”Friends” page,. In the
FilmTrust network, relationships can be one-way, so users
can see who they have listed as friends, and vice versa . If
trust ratings are visible to everyone, users can be
discouraged from giving accurate ratings for fear of offending or
upsetting people by giving them low ratings. Because
honest trust ratings are important to the function of the system,
these values are kept private and shown only to the user who
assigned them.</p>
      <p>The other features of the website are movie ratings and
reviews. Users can choose any film and rate it on a scale of a
half star to four stars. They can also write free-text reviews
about movies.</p>
      <p>Social networks meet movie information on the ”Ratings
and Reviews” page shown in Figure 4. Users are shown two
ratings for each movie. The first is the simple average of
all ratings given to the film. The ”Recommended Rating”
uses the inferred trust values, computed with TidalTrust
on the social network, for the users who rated the film as
weights to calculate a weighted average rating. Because the
inferred trust values reflect how much the user should trust
the opinions of the person rating the movie, the weighted
average of movie ratings should reflect the user’s opinion. If
the user has an opinion that is different from the average,
the rating calculated from trusted friends - who should have
similar opinions - should reflect that difference. Similarly,
if a movie has multiple reviews, they are sorted according
to the inferred trust rating of the author. This presents the
reviews authored by the most trusted people first to assist
the user in finding information that will be most relevant.
3.1.1</p>
      <sec id="sec-11-1">
        <title>Site Personalization: Movie Ratings</title>
        <p>One of the features of the FilmTrust site that uses the
social network is the ”Recommended Rating” feature. As
figure 4 shows, users will see this in addition to the average
rating given to a particular movie.</p>
        <p>
          The trust values are used in conjunction with the
TidalTrust algorithm to present personalized views of movie pages.
When the user chooses a film, they are presented with basic
film data, the average rating of the movie, a personalized
recommended rating, and the reviews written by users. The
personalized recommended rating is computed by first
selecting a set of people who rated the movie. The selection
process considers trust and path length; details on how this
set of people are chosen are provided in [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
          ]. Using the trust
values (direct or inferred) for each person in the set who
rated the movie as a weight, and computing the weighted
average rating. For the set of selected nodes S, the
recommended rating r from node s to movie m is the average of
the movie ratings from nodes in S weighted by the trust
value t from s to each node:
rsm =
        </p>
        <p>Pi∈S tsirim</p>
        <p>Pi∈S tsi
(2)</p>
        <p>This average is rounded to the nearest half-star, and that
value becomes the ”Recommended Rating” that is
personalized for each user.</p>
        <p>As a simple example, consider the following: Alice trusts
Bob 9 Alice trusts Chuck 3 Bob rates the movie ”Jaws”
with 4 stars Chuck rates the movie ”Jaws” with 2 stars</p>
        <p>Then Alice’s recommended rating for ”Jaws” is calculated
as follows:
tAlice−&gt;BobrBob−&gt;Jaws+tAlice−&gt;ChuckrChuck−&gt;Jaws
tAlice−&gt;Bob+tAlice−&gt;Chuck
= (9∗4+3∗2 = 4122 = 3.5</p>
        <p>9+3</p>
        <p>
          For each movie the user has rated, the recommended
rating can be compared to the actual rating that the user
assigned. In this analysis, we also compare the user’s rating
with the average rating for the movie, and with a
recommended rating generated by an automatic collaborative
filtering (ACF) algorithm. There are many ACF algorithms,
and one that has been well tested, and which is used here,
is the classic user-to-user nearest neighbor prediction
algorithm based on Pearson Correlation [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
          ]. If the trust-based
method of calculating ratings is best, the difference between
the personalized rating and the user’s actual rating should
be significantly smaller than the difference between the
actual rating and the average rating.
        </p>
        <p>On first analysis, it did not appear that that the
personalized ratings from the social network offered any benefit
over the average. The difference between the actual rating
and the recommended rating (call this δr) was not
statistically different than the difference between the user’s actual
rating and the average rating (call this δa). The difference
between a user’s actual rating of a film and the ACF
calculated rating (δcf ) also was not better than δa in the general
case. A close look at the data suggested why. Most of
the time, the majority of users actual ratings are close to
the average. This is most likely due to the fact that the
users in the FilmTrust system had all rated the AFI Top 50
movies, which received disproportionately high ratings. A
random sampling of movies showed that about 50% of all
ratings were within the range of the mean +/- a half star
(the smallest possible increment). For users who gave these
near-mean rating, a personalized rating could not offer much
benefit over the average.</p>
        <p>However, the point of the recommended rating is more to
provide useful information to people who disagree with the
average. In those cases, the personalized rating should give
the user a better recommendation, because we expect the
people they trust will have tastes similar to their own [13].</p>
        <p>To see this effect, δa, δcf , and δr were calculated with
various minimum thresholds on the δa value. If the
recommended ratings do not offer a benefit over the average
rating, the δr values will increase at the same rate the δa values
do. The experiment was conducted by limiting δa in
increments of 0.5. The first set of comparisons was taken with no
threshold, where the difference between δa and δr was not
significant. As the minimum δa value was raised it selected
a smaller group of user-film pairs where the users made
ratings that differed increasingly with the average. Obviously,
we expect the average δa value will increase by about 0.5 at
each increment, and that it will be somewhat higher than
the minimum threshold. The real question is how the δr will
be impacted. If it increases at the same rate, then the
recommended ratings do not offer much benefit over the simple
average. If it increases at a slower rate, that means that, as
the user strays from the average, the recommended rating
more closely reflects their opinions. Figure 5 illustrates the
results of these comparisons.</p>
        <p>Notice that the δa value increases about as expected. The
δr, however, is clearly increasing at a slower rate than δa.
At each step, as the lower threshold for δa is increased by
0.5, δr increases by an average of less than 0.1. A
twotailed t-test shows that at each step where the minimum δa
threshold is greater than or equal to 0.5, the recommended
rating is significantly closer to the actual rating than the
average rating is, with p¡0.01. For about 25% of the ratings
assigned, δa¡0.5, and the user’s ratings are about the same as
the mean. For the other 75% of the ratings, δa¿0.5, and the
recommended rating significantly outperforms the average.</p>
        <p>As is shown in Figure 5, δcf closely follows δa. For δa¡1,
there was no significant difference between the accuracy of
the ACF ratings and the trust-based recommended rating.
However, when the gap between the actual rating and the
average increases, for δa¿=1, the trust-based
recommendation outperforms the ACF as well as the average, with
p¡0.01. Because the ACF algorithm is only capturing
overall correlation, it is tracking the average because most users’
ratings are close to the average.</p>
        <p>Figure 4 illustrates one of the examples where the
recommended value reflects the user’s tastes. ”A Clockwork
Orange” is one of the films in the database that has a strong
collective of users who hated the movie, even though the
average rating was 3 stars and many users gave it a full
4star rating. For the user shown, δa=2.5 - a very high value
- while the recommended rating exactly matches the user’s
low rating of 0.5 stars. These are precisely the type of cases
that the recommended rating is designed to address.</p>
        <p>Thus, when the user’s rating of a movie is different than
the average rating, it is likely that the recommended rating
will more closely reflect the user’s tastes. When the user
has different tastes than the population at large, the
recommended rating reflects that. When the user has tastes that
align with the mean, the recommended rating also aligns
with the mean. Based on these findings, the recommended
ratings should be useful when people have never seen a
movie. Since they accurately reflect the users’ opinions of
movies they have already. Because the rating is
personalized, originating from a social network, it is also in line with
other results [11][12] that show users prefer
recommendations from friends and trusted systems.</p>
        <p>One potential drawback to creating recommendations based
solely on relationships in the social network is that a
recommendation cannot be calculated when there are no paths
from the source to any people who have rated a movie. This
case is rare, though, because as long as just one path can be
found, a recommendation can be made. In the FilmTrust
network, when the user has made at least one social
connection, a recommendation can be made for 95% of the
usermovie pairs.</p>
        <p>The purpose of this work is not necessarily to replace more
traditional methods of collaborative filtering. It is very
possible that a combined approach of trust with correlation
weighting or another form of collaborative filtering may
offer equal or better accuracy, and it will certainly allow for
higher coverage. However, these results clearly show that,
in the FilmTrust network, basing recommendations on the
expressed trust for other people in the network offers
significant benefits for accuracy.
3.1.2</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-11-2">
        <title>Presenting Ordered Reviews</title>
        <p>In addition to presenting personalized ratings, the
experience of reading reviews is also personalized. The reviews
are presented in order of the trust value of the author, with
the reviews from the most trustworthy people appearing at
the top, and those from the least trustworthy at the bottom.
The expectation is that the most relevant reviews will come
from more trusted users, and thus they will be shown first.</p>
        <p>Unlike the personalized ratings, measuring the accuracy of
the review sort is not possible without requiring users to list
the order in which they suggest the reviews appear.
Without performing that sort of analysis, much of the evidence
presented so far supports this ordering. Trust with respect
to movies means that the user believes that the trusted
person will give good and useful information about the movies.
The analysis also suggests that more trusted individuals will
give more accurate information. It was shown there that
trust correlates with the accuracy of ratings. Reviews will
be written in line with ratings (i.e. a user will not give a high
rating to a movie and then write a poor review of it), and
since ratings from highly trusted users are more accurate, it
follows that reviews should also be more accurate.</p>
        <p>A small user study with 9 subjects was run on the FilmTrust
network. Preliminary results show a strong user preference
for reviews ordered by the trustworthiness of the rater, but
this study must be extended and refined in the future to
validate these results.</p>
        <p>The positive results achieved in the FilmTrust system
were encouraging from the perspective of creating
intelligent user interfaces. However, in other applications,
filtering and rating information based on its provenance is even
more critical. In the next section, we introduce the Profiles
In Terror portal and present a beta version of a system that
integrates trust with the provenance of information to help
the user see results from the most trusted perspective.
3.2</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-12">
      <title>Profiles In Terror</title>
      <p>In the wake of the major intelligence failures of the last
decade, intelligence reformers have pointed to group-think
and failure of imagination as a recurring problem for
intelligence agencies. A Trust Network could be an important
asset to help intelligence agencies avoid this pitfall. A trust
analysis network would be an asset both to teams focused
on specific problems and for the broader intelligence
community. A trust network would be useful both for facilitating
communication and for evaluating internal communication.
Since the intelligence community of even a medium-sized
nation-state could have several thousand intelligence
community stake-holders (agents, collectors, policy-makers,
analysts, and other intelligence consumers), all of these
stakeholders cannot possibly know each other and need some
means to evaluate the veracity of the information they
receive. A trust network would help stakeholders identify
other intelligence community members with relevant
knowledge for advice and counsel. A trust network could also
provide broader insight into the functioning of the
intelligence community. In addition to helping stakeholders, trust
systems can be useful for those doing meta-analysis on the
performance of the intelligence community as a whole.</p>
      <p>As intelligence communities are changing to face new
challenges they are embracing a model of competitive
collaboration. In this model divergent analyses are brought before
policy-makers rather than attempting to forge a consensus.
A trust network could be used to help identify and
understand the data different sub-communities relied on to come
to their conclusions and look at how different elements of the
intelligence community view one another and their work.</p>
      <p>In the murky world of intelligence, virtually every piece
of data can be subject to dispute. Even seemingly certain
information, such as date and place of birth may not be
known with confidence. This problem is even more severe
when more complex phenomena are being interpreted.
Different units may become attached to particular theories and
uninterested in alternate explanations.</p>
      <p>The intelligence trust network would allow various
stakeholders to enter a numerical rating as to their confidence
in another stakeholders work, with the possibility of giving
subratings for particular issues or topics (such as a
particular nation or organization.) Raters would have the option of
including comments. In a smaller-scale portal provenance
would be assigned to the ratings and openly visible. In a
large-scale portal that encompassed an entire intelligence
agency, or even several agencies semi-anonymity might be
necessary so that raters would feel free to contribute
comments without potential repercussions. However, it would
be important for stakeholders to be able contact specific
raters.</p>
      <p>For example, an analyst is assessing the stability of a
regime. He comes across a report that men in the ruling
family have a genetic heart defect. This was previously
unknown and there is no confirmation. If it is true it has a
substantial impact on the regimes stability. The analyst
does not have any prior knowledge of the source, but sees
that while the source has a range of ratings, there is a
cluster of analysts who consistently trust this source on issues
involving the regime in question. She does not know these
analysts but sees from her network that some of them are
well regarded by people she trusts. She contacts these
analysts and learns that the source is a case officer who has
recruited a high-level source within the regime who has
consistently provided solid and unique information. The analyst
writes her report taking this new information to account.</p>
      <p>The trust network would allow multiple users to enter
different ratings and their rationale. Within an intelligence
community’s trust network certain analysts and sources will
gain reputations, and other stakeholders can search databases
by their ratings. While the system will be able to tally and
average the results, these totals may not always be strong
indicators of the reliability of information or the validity of a
hypothesis. In general, in trust networks, most ratings
cluster together and the interesting results will be found with
the outliers.</p>
      <p>For example, tracking the movements of an individual
suspected to be a major terrorist leader, an analyst comes to
the conclusion that a major attack is in the works. His
argument persuades several other analysts and he is given a
high trust rating. When policy-makers begin examining
options to capture the individual the situation become more
complex. It will require substantial diplomatic efforts and
could reveal sensitive sources. The policy-makers are being
pressed by the analysts to move against the individual, but
know that such a move will come at a high cost. While
the key analyst has numerous high ratings, particularly on
terrorist travel issues the policy-makers find an analyst who
does not particularly trust the key analyst. The second
analyst is called in to review the situation. He brings up several
weaknesses in the report. The key analyst responds
effectively to these points and the policy-makers move ahead
with confidence to intercept the suspected terrorist.</p>
      <p>A trust network may also help understand organizational
and inter-organizational communication. This is where the
ability to tally results can be useful. If a particular unit
is consistently giving particularly high or low ratings to
individuals in another unit it may indicate a breakdown in
communications. It is possible that the two units are
increasingly overlapping, but are not in direct contact, or do
not understand the other group’s work. The data from the
trust network could indicate this deficiency and managers
could take steps to correct it - by holding joint meetings
or assigning the groups to joint projects. Alternately,
highratings for the same information across several linked units
might indicate group think and be a warning to management
to bring in an alternate unit to ”red-team” the situation.</p>
      <p>Whether shared by a small team, an agency, or several
agencies, a trust network can be a useful tool for the
intelligence community. It will serve a valuable role in bringing
alternate views to the attention of intelligence community
stakeholders and facilitating communication between
specialists in disparate agencies. Finally, it can provide an
analytical basis for understanding how the intelligence
community itself disseminates and analyzes information.</p>
      <p>In the Profiles In Terror web portal, we have begun the
steps to integrate trust information into the presentation of
the metadata. We track provenance for each statement
asserted to the portal (see figure 6. The portal also tracks
probabilities associated with each statements. This means
if an analyst has a piece of information, but he or she is not
confident in the quality of it, they can associate a
probability. In figure 6, we see a probability of 0.5 associated with
the statement that Abu Mazen participated in the event
Munich Olympics Massacre. We are currently integrating
a trust network to the system which will combine the trust
inferences discussed earlier in this paper, with provenance
and probabilities in the Profiles in Terror system. This will
allow statements to be filtered and ranked according to the
personal trust preferences of the individual analyst.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-13">
      <title>CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK</title>
      <p>In this paper, we have presented a two level approach to
integrating trust, provenance, and annotations in Semantic
Web systems. First, we presented an algorithm for
computing personalized trust recommendations using the
provenance of existing trust annotations in social networks. Then,
we introduced two applications that combine the computed
trust values with the provenance of other annotations to
personalize websites. In FilmTrust, the trust values were
used to compute personalized recommended movie ratings
and to order reviews. Profiles In Terror also has a beta
system that integrates social networks with trust annotations
and provenance information for the intelligence information
that is part of the site. We believe that these two systems
illustrate a unique way of using trust annotations and
provenance to process information on the Semantic Web.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-14">
      <title>ACKNOWLEDGMENTS</title>
      <p>This work, conducted at the Maryland Information and
Network Dynamics Laboratory Semantic Web Agents Project,
was funded by Fujitsu Laboratories of America – College
Park, Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Laboratory,
NTT Corp., Kevric Corp., SAIC, the National Science
Foundation, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, DARPA,
US Army Research Laboratory, NIST, and other DoD sources.
Second International Semantic Web Conference, 2003.
[11] R. Sinha and K. Swearingen. Comparing
recommendations made by online systems and friends.
Proceedings of the DELOS-NSF Workshop on
Personalization and Recommender Systems in Digital
Libraries, 2001.
[12] K. Swearingen and R. Sinha. Beyond algorithms: An
hci perspective on recommender systems. Proceedings
of the ACM SIGIR 2001 Workshop on Recommender
Systems, 2001.
[13] C.-N. Ziegler and J. Golbeck. Investigating</p>
      <p>Correlations of Trust and Interest Similarity. Decision
Support Services, 2006.
[14] C.-N. Ziegler and G. Lausen. Spreading activation
models for trust propagation. March 2004.</p>
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