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<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Behavioral Predictors of MOOC Post-Course Development</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Yuan Wang</string-name>
          <email>elle.wang@columbia.edu</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Ryan S. Baker</string-name>
          <email>rybaker@upenn.edu</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Luc Paquette</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Teachers College, Columbia University</institution>
          ,
          <country country="US">USA</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign</institution>
          ,
          <country country="US">USA</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2">
          <label>2</label>
          <institution>University of Pennsylvania</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Pennsylvania, PA</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="US">USA</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <fpage>100</fpage>
      <lpage>111</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>Massive Online Open Courses (MOOCs) have shown potential for promoting learning at scale. A plethora of studies have tapped into in-course learner behaviors to predict learner success. Yet few studies have looked to the relation between performance and engagement during the course and career development after the course. As such, the present study collected and analyzed both in-course data reflecting learner achievement and engagement in a postgraduate-level MOOC, as well as post-course career development. The goal of this research is to examine how career advancers differ from the rest of learners in terms of their performance and engagement within the course. Results showed that career advancers earned better scores and were more likely to complete the course. Career advancers also engaged more frequently with all key course components such as course pages, lecture videos, assignment submissions, and discussion forums. However, while they read the forums, they were not significantly more likely to post, comment, or vote.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>Learning analytics</kwd>
        <kwd>massive online open courses</kwd>
        <kwd>long-term learning development</kwd>
        <kwd>learning outcomes</kwd>
        <kwd>career development</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>1.1</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Introduction</title>
      <sec id="sec-2-1">
        <title>Background</title>
        <p>
          MOOCs have been credited as a disruptive innovation in education [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref24">24</xref>
          ] and are
recognized as having the potential to help increase career opportunities for emerging fields
in high demand, such as the data sciences [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
          ]. As such, MOOCs are seen as a key
opportunity to equip learners with skill sets in high demand and cater to the growingly
diverse needs of a knowledge economy [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref28">28</xref>
          ], that are not yet fully developed in
traditional higher education systems [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref29">29</xref>
          ].
        </p>
        <p>
          Despite the promising outlook, few empirical studies have delved into the links
between MOOCs and post-course career development. Much research in MOOCs focuses
on learner achievement and engagement during the course itself, leaving the area of
post-course student longitudinal development relatively untouched. It is observed that
the narrative on MOOCs has shifted from overwhelmingly optimistic from 2011 to
2014 to substantially more critical in 2015 [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref23">23</xref>
          ]. One concern is that it is not clear how
well MOOCs support student learning and career development in response to changing
societal needs [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13</xref>
          ]. The development of technology and scale of online education
considerably outpace efforts to evaluate and understand how well it is succeeding at
improving outcomes. The ongoing focus on studying MOOC completion, with
longitudinal development data largely absent, obscures the possible role that MOOCs may play
in the long-term professional development of many of their users.
        </p>
        <p>The present study collects and analyzes three types of data reflecting both learner
incourse achievement and engagement as well as post-course development in the context
of a MOOC on educational data mining. This data is integrated to investigate the
following question: How do MOOC learners’ performance and engagement during a
course relate to their post-course development in an emerging STEM field?
1.2</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-2">
        <title>Related Work</title>
        <p>In the following section, we review relevant literature and studies on the three sources
of data utilized by the present study. We first introduce MOOC studies with an
emphasis on learner achievement data. Then, we move on to studies that have tapped into
learner engagement afforded by the availability of MOOC clickstream data. Lastly, we
introduce studies emphasizing longitudinal impact on MOOC learners and present two
key frameworks for thinking about MOOC post-course development.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-3">
        <title>MOOC In-Course Performance and Completion</title>
        <p>
          As in traditional school and university settings, performance in MOOCs is generally
measured by calculating learner assignment and test scores [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
          ]. A total score is
calculated at the end of a MOOC to determine if a student earns enough points to complete
a course. The threshold for completing a course to earn a certificate is usually
predefined by the course instructor [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
          ]. Performance data in MOOCs have been used as a
key metric to assess student success in MOOCs, and has served as a dependent measure
in further research. Learner demographic background [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
          ], motivation [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref26">26</xref>
          ], prior
knowledge [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17">17</xref>
          ], and interaction with the instructor [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">16</xref>
          ] have all been studied and linked
to MOOC learner performance.
        </p>
        <p>
          However, unlike in traditional online learning platforms, many MOOC learners do
not consider completing a course their primary goal [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
          ] Although the completion rate
is low relative to for-credit online courses, it is generally agreed that completion rate in
MOOCs cannot be easily equated with previous learning contexts [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
          ]. Nevertheless,
performance data have served as a starting point into studying MOOC learner success.
        </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-4">
        <title>MOOC Clickstream Data /Interaction</title>
        <p>The availability of clickstream data allow for engineering a multitude of variables
reflecting finer-grained learner engagement and revealing insights that would otherwise
have stayed hidden.</p>
        <p>
          Clickstream data have been used to derive measures of learner interaction with
course components such as videos, discussion forums, and assignments, which have
been correlated to other data. For example, Guo, Kim, and Rubin [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15">15</xref>
          ] used video
watching logs to determine that shorter videos, the inclusion of instructor talking-head
videos, and the presence of drawing-hand style instructions led to better engagement.
Yang, Sinha, David, and Rose [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref30">30</xref>
          ] looked into how social factors extracted from
discussion forums influence course completion and identified predictors of completion,
finding that metrics such as whether a student is a conversation initiator and a student’s
frequency of posting are predictive of completion. Crossley and colleagues [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
          ]
investigated the relation between discussion forum data and course completion and found out
that linguistic features of student forum participation, such as cohesion, can predict
course completion. Beyond this, a growing community of researchers from various
disciplines have studied engagement patterns in MOOCs [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref18">18</xref>
          ], finding that MOOC
learners exhibit highly varied ways of interacting with and using the courses they enroll in.
        </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-5">
        <title>Post-Course Development</title>
        <p>
          In addition to performance and interaction within the MOOC course platform, there has
been recent attention to whether a MOOC has longitudinal impact after the end of the
course [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref22 ref27">22, 27</xref>
          ], such as career advancement for learners [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
          ]. Yet, operationalizing
post-course development can take on different forms for MOOCs intended for different
levels of learners, or in different domains. Before starting to measure post-MOOC
development, we must first ask what MOOC learners intend to achieve after the
conclusion of a MOOC and what that specific MOOC is poised to offer for the student’s
development. We consider this in terms of the development of individuals’ careers, and
the development of the communities of practice [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref19">19</xref>
          ] that they belong to and join.
2
2.1
        </p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Method</title>
      <sec id="sec-3-1">
        <title>The MOOC</title>
        <p>
          We researched these issues within the context of the MOOC, “Big Data in Education”
[
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
          ], using data from its first iteration, delivered via Coursera. The MOOC was created
in response to the increasing interest in the learning sciences and educational
technology communities in learning to use EDM methods with fine-grained log data. The
overall goal of this course was to enable students to apply a range of EDM methods to
answer education research questions and to drive intervention and improvement in
educational software and systems. The MOOC ran from October 24, 2013 to December
26, 2013. The weekly course comprised lecture videos and 8 weekly assignments. Most
of the videos also contained in-video quizzes that did not count toward the final grade.
2.2
        </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-2">
        <title>Clickstream Data – Learner Engagement</title>
        <p>Clickstream data from the system logs enabled the creation of variables on learners’
interaction with the components of the course environment. In the present analysis, we
examined student-level interaction in four categories: page views, lecture videos,
discussion forums, and assignments. The clickstream log data was obtained 3 months after
the official conclusion of the course (i.e. analyses on student behavior after the official
course end include behavior in the 3-month period following that date).</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-3">
        <title>Page views</title>
        <p>We calculated a global variable reflecting the total number of times each student viewed
a page. Additionally, we computed a variable indicating how many times a student
accessed the course’s syllabus page in specific.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-4">
        <title>Lecture videos</title>
        <p>Variables representing learner interaction with lecture videos were also included. First,
we computed a global variable calculating the total number of times a student interacted
with any lecture video. An interaction consists of starting, pausing, rewinding, or
stopping a video, as well as changing the video speed. In addition, we computed how many
times a student interacted with lecture videos for each week, from week 1 to week 8 as
well as during the 3 months after the course officially concluded.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-5">
        <title>Discussion forums</title>
        <p>To differentiate types of forum interactions, we computed variables for the following
forum actions: the number of times a student accessed and read a forum post, posted a
new message, responded to an existing message, up-voted a message, or down-voted a
message. For each of these five types of variables, we calculated the total number of
actions taken during the entire duration covered by the log data, totals for each
courseoffering week for all 8 weeks, and a count of interaction in the 3 months after the course
officially concluded.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-6">
        <title>Assignment submissions</title>
        <p>Since the course was designed to allow students to attempt the assignments multiple
times, we calculated how many times a student attempted to submit an assignment. As
above, we included a global variable to cover the entire course duration, weekly counts
for all 8 weeks, plus a count of submissions in the 3 months after the course concluded.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-7">
        <title>Assignment Scores and Completion Status</title>
        <p>This MOOC contains 8 weekly assignments. For the present analysis, we calculated 8
weekly scores and a final score. According to the course policy, the final score was
calculated by averaging the 6 highest grades extracted out of the 8 assignments.
Students who earned a final grade of 70% or above are eligible to receive a certificate and
therefore are considered to have completed the course. A total of 638 students
completed this MOOC and obtained a certificate.
2.4</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-8">
        <title>Post-Course Participation</title>
        <p>Our goal in this analysis was to study the relationship between a student’s interaction
with the course and their later participation in the community of practice. In partnership
with members of the relevant scientific societies and under the oversight of our
university’s Institutional Review Board, the first author was provided with a de-identified
dataset linking interaction variables to indicators of post-course participation: whether
the learner joined a relevant scientific society, and whether the learner submitted a
paper to a relevant conference after taking the MOOC.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-9">
        <title>Society Membership Status</title>
        <p>
          Learners who have enrolled in the MOOC and later joined the International Educational
Data Mining Society were coded as 1 = members; learners who did not join the society
were coded as 0 = non-members. The time window for joining the society was between
the end of the course and Spring 2016 – an earlier preliminary analysis [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref27">27</xref>
          ] studied
individuals who joined the EDM Society in the first six months after the course, solely
investigating course completion as a possible predictor. A total of 48 learners joined
the society during this period.
        </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-10">
        <title>Paper Submitting Status</title>
        <p>During a two-year time range following the conclusion of the course in late 2013, three
primary conferences in the fields covered in the MOOC offered an open call for paper
submission and were held: The Seventh International Conference on Educational Data
Mining, The Eighth International Conference on Educational Data Mining, and The
Fifth International Learning Analytics &amp; Knowledge Conference. Learners who
submitted papers to any of the three conferences were coded as 1 = submitters; those who
did not were coded as 0 = non-submitters. A total of 148 learners submitted a paper to
one of these venues during this period.
2.5</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-11">
        <title>Analysis</title>
        <p>As discussed above, data were collected in three categories: 1) Course interaction; 2)
Course performance and 3) Post-course community participation. Our research goal
was to investigate how course interaction and performance differ between students
who have shown active participation and those who did not.</p>
        <p>
          We conducted a set of two-sample independent t-tests (assuming unequal variance
in all cases, since this assumption was violated in almost all cases) in order to
investigate this question. As this comprises a large number of statistical analyses, we
controlled for multiple comparisons using Storey et al.’s [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref25">25</xref>
          ] false discovery rate method
[
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
          ]. The FDR calculations in the results were calculated using the QVALUE software
package [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref25">25</xref>
          ] within the R statistical software environment [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref21">21</xref>
          ].
3
3.1
        </p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Result</title>
      <sec id="sec-4-1">
        <title>Page Views</title>
        <p>The results of comparisons between eventual society members and non-members on
their in-course page view actions showed that eventual members made statistically
significantly more overall page views, t(47.01) = -4.00, q = .007, d = .800, and viewed the
syllabus page t(47.01) = -2.92, q &lt;.001, d = .569 more frequently than non-members.
Similarly, paper submitters also viewed statistically significantly more pages, t(147.03)
= -3.39, q = .002, d = .800, and also viewed the syllabus more times, t(147.13) = -4.01,
q &lt;.001, d = .436, than non-submitters.
3.2</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-2">
        <title>Video Watching</title>
        <p>Eventual members performed a statistically significantly higher number of actions
related to viewing lecture videos (including, as discussed above, actions such as
rewinding or pausing) in total than non-members, t(47.00) = -4.32, q &lt; .001, d = .611. When
examined on a weekly basis, members also conducted statistically significantly higher
numbers of video watching-related actions than non-members from week 1 to week 7.
There were no statistically significant differences for actions during week 8 and after
week 8.</p>
        <p>Similarly, paper submitters performed a statistically significantly higher number of
actions related to viewing lecture videos than non-submitters, t(148.41) = -4.94, q&lt;.001,
d = .356. When examined on a weekly basis, paper submitters also conducted
statistically significantly higher numbers of video watching-related actions than
non-submitters from week 1 to week 7. There was not a statistically significant difference for
actions during week 8 and post week 8.
3.3</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-3">
        <title>Discussion Forum</title>
        <p>Results of comparisons between members and non-members on discussion forum
reading actions in total and per week show that members read the forums statistically
significantly more frequently than non-members, t(47.01) = -3.65, q = .002, d = .705.
When examined on a weekly basis (table 1), members also read the forums statistically
significantly more than non-members from week 1 to week 8. There was not a
statistically significant difference for forum posts after week 8.</p>
        <p>Submitters read the forums statistically significantly more than non-submitters,
t(147.05) = -2.90, q = .006, d = .327. When examined on a weekly basis (table 2),
submitters also read the forums significantly more than non-submitters from week 1 to
week 8. A statistically significant difference was also found for forum reading
occurring after week 8.
Statistically significant differences were not found, whether assessed in total or on
weekly basis, when comparing actions such as initiating a post, responding to an
existing post, or voting for an existing posts either between members and non-members or
between paper submitters and non-submitters.
3.5</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-4">
        <title>Assignment Submission.</title>
        <p>Members submitted assignments statistically significantly more frequently than
nonmembers, t(47.01) = -3.75, q = .001 , d = .737. When examined on a weekly basis,
members also submitted assignments statistically significantly more frequently than
non-members from week 1 to week 8, though week 4 was marginally significant with
a q value of 0.055. There was not a statistically significant difference in assignment
submissions after week 8.</p>
        <p>In addition, paper submitters submitted assignments statistically significantly more
than paper non-submitters, t(147.12) = -5.10, q &lt; .001 , d = .557. When examined on a
weekly basis, paper submitters also submitted assignments more than paper
non-submitters from week 1 to week 8. There was not a statistically significant difference for
submitting assignments after week 8.
3.6</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-5">
        <title>Assignment Submission</title>
        <p>Members received statistically significantly higher final scores than non-members,
t(47.01) = -3.43, q = .002 , d = .643. When examined on a weekly basis, members also
received statistically significantly higher scores than non-members from week 1 to
week 8.</p>
        <p>In addition, paper submitters received statistically significantly higher final scores
than non-submitters, t(147.10) = -4.35, q &lt; .001 , d = .447 . When examined on a weekly
basis, submitters also received statistically significantly higher scores than
non-submitters from week 1 to week 8.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-6">
        <title>Assignment Submission</title>
        <p>A chi-square test of independence was performed to examine the relation between
course completion and post-course society membership status. Table 3 shows that the
relationship between completion status and society membership status is significant, 2
(1, N = 49952) = 116.33, p &lt; .001; students who completed the course were more likely
to join the society, by more than a factor of ten.</p>
        <p>A chi-square test of independence was performed to examine the relation between
course completion and post-course paper submission. Table 4 shows that the relation
between completion status and paper submitting status is significant, 2 (1, N = 49952)
= 176.26, p &lt; .001; students who completed the course were more likely to submit a
paper – again, by more than an order of magnitude.
The present study collected data reflecting learner post-course development and related
it to indicators of their participation, engagement, and performance in the course. In
this study, we investigated two post-course development variables: whether a learner
joined a relevant scientific community, and whether the learner submitted a paper to a
relevant conference, after taking a MOOC in an emerging discipline.</p>
        <p>Overall, career advancers (of both types) earned higher scores in the course than
non-advancers. They interacted more frequently with key course components including
course pages, lecture videos, and discussion forums. However, somewhat surprisingly,
career advancers did not post more to the forums or participate more often in reputation
voting. They did, however, access the discussion forums more often to read posts than
non-advancers. These results indicate that using post-course career development
indicators such as joining a professional society and submitting a paper are related to
students’ in-course interaction and performance.</p>
        <p>
          Another somewhat surprising result is that posting to the discussion forums was not
a factor differentiating career advancers from non-advancers, even though career
advancers read the forums more often than their classmates. One possible reason is that
content posted by some learners involves basic topics that are not associated with the
types of advanced understanding and skill needed for career advancement. Another
possible explanation is that many of the posts in this class were off-topic or not
particularly professionally relevant, involving the color of the instructor’s shirt or criticizing
the video design [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
          ]; these irrelevant posts are unlikely to benefit learners. It is possible
that if these posts were removed from the data, the results would be different.
        </p>
        <p>
          An interesting – if less surprising – result was the strong link between course
completion and career advancement. Course completion, though widely adopted as a
metric, has received considerable skepticism. Many have noted that completion rates are
low [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
          ], and low course completion has been treated as a crucial concern [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref31">31</xref>
          ]. Results
from the current study align to the perspective that course completion is indeed
important, finding that course completion is associated with post-course development for
MOOC learners. This indicates that course completion can be an important indicator of
interest in assessing longitudinal learner development. Of course, despite the strong
association, it is not a perfect predictor: the majority of advancers did not complete the
course. This indicates that course completion is an important factor when assessing
longitudinal career development, yet completing a MOOC is a prerequisite for
longterm career development.
        </p>
        <p>Going forward, by understanding the role that MOOCs play in career development,
and understanding which student behaviors are associated with positive developments,
we can work to make MOOCs more effective at promoting learner success, and help
MOOCs reach the high potential attributed to them at their very beginning.
5</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Acknowledgement</title>
      <p>This work was supported by the National Sciences Foundation, Award #DRL –
1418378, “Collaborative Research: Modeling Social Interaction and Performance in
STEM Learning.”
6</p>
    </sec>
  </body>
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