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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Tell the student: evidence-based advantages of prerequisites (Discussion Paper)?</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Marco Cameranesi</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Claudia Diamantini</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Laura Genga</string-name>
          <email>fl.gengag@tue.nl</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Domenico Potena</string-name>
          <email>d.potenag@univpm.it</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Eindhoven University of Technology</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>5600 MB Eindhoven</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="NL">The Netherlands</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell'Informazione, Universita Politecnica delle Marche</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>via Brecce Bianche, 60131 Ancona</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="IT">Italy</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>When bachelor and master degrees were introduced in the Italian system, the Engineering Faculty of Universita Politecnica delle Marche dropped mandatory prerequisites between modules from its degrees. Since then, we periodically witness intense debates among professors, who think this led to unstructured learning practices with consequent performance issues, and students who are concerned of an overly constrained course of study. This paper brie y describes an ex-post analysis of the carriers of students enrolled in the bachelor degree in Computer and Automation Engineering based on process mining techniques, the resulting evidence about typical patterns followed by students, and sketches possible actions that can be put in practice to support students without constraining their course of study.</p>
      </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>
        Digital technologies in learning received much attention in the last years. In
particular, educational data mining is a research eld by itself [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ]. Leveraged by
e-learning environments and MOOC, data mining techniques can be exploited
on an increasing amount of digital resources related to almost every step of
the learning process, to perform a wide variety of tasks: prediction of future
enrollments, abandonments or outcomes; latent knowledge estimation; mining
of relations between certain students characteristics and their learning style;
clustering of schools, courses or students, just to name a few.
      </p>
      <p>
        In this paper we brie y describe the application of process mining techniques
to the carriers of students enrolled in the bachelor degree in Computer and
Automation Engineering, with the aim to understand the typical paths followed
by students in taking exams, and their relations with nal outcomes. The work
is motivated by the intense debate among professors and students that arise
from time to time on mandatory prerequisites. Mandatory prerequisites among
? This work has been partially funded by the ITEA2 project M2MGrid (No. 13011).
modules have been dropped from courses of the Faculty of Engineering of the
Universita Politecnica delle Marche. While somebody would like to re-introduce
them in order to limit unstructured learning practices, students are concerned
of an overly constrained course of study. The work is part of the monitoring
activities in charge of the Faculty committee named \Commissione Paritetica"
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ], in which one of the authors is involved. Similar applications of Process Mining
techniques exist in the literature. They are mainly devoted to exploit event
logs generated by Learning Management Systems like Moodle to discover the
work ow of learning activities performed inside a unit of learning, or teaching
module (e.g. reading documents, doing assignments, accessing the forum, etc.)
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref15">10, 15</xref>
        ], or to model patterns of examinee behaviors during assessments [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
        ].
The work in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ] shares some similarities with the present work, in that it tries
to nd correlations between outcome variables and the sequence of modules, by
segmenting traces on the basis of key performance indicators.
      </p>
      <p>The rest of the paper is organized as follows: in Section 2 we provide a brief
introduction to Process Mining and techniques used in the paper. Section 3
describes data, their processing and the results of mining activities. Section 4
introduces some re ection and draw future work.
2</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Background</title>
      <p>
        Process Mining encompasses a wide range of techniques for the analysis of
business processes from run-time information recorded in event logs [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>A process consists of a set of activities that have to be performed by some
actors to reach a certain goal. Welfare grant approval is an example of business
process, that involves activities like application submission, the analysis of
documentation, possibly split in financial check and check for illness
conditions performed by two di erent units in parallel, and a nal approval decision.
A process schema is a general schema representing the overall control- ow of
activities. The main elements of a process schema are activities, and control- ow
operators like sequence, parallelization and merging, alternative choices, and
loops. Many di erent process modeling formalisms exist, among them Petri Nets
is the best known theoretical model. A process instance is a speci c execution of
the process. In our example, each single welfare grant application represents a
process instance. Process instances are recorded by information systems in event
logs in the form of traces, i.e. sequences of events generated by the execution of
activities in their strict order of occurrence. The core information recorded in
an event log covers the unique id of the event occurred, the associated activity,
the time of occurrence and the instance, or case, it belongs to. The name of
the actor executing the activity, or its role, can be also reported. Depending
on the information system, other information can be recorded, like for instance
the data processed by the activity, the case category and so forth. This kind of
information is often referred to as data attributes and this kind of logs are also
called data annotated logs.</p>
      <p>
        In Process Mining, two major tasks can be recognized:
{ Process Discovery: synthesize a process schema from event logs.
{ Conformance Checking: analyze the event log to check whether it ts a
given process. If the model is a normative or prescriptive (hence a-priori
correct) model, conformance checking is interpreted as a way to measure the
adherence of real process executions to those prescribed or planned, however
it can also be seen as a way to evaluate the accuracy of a model mined by a
Process Discovery technique in capturing the content of the event log.
The basic idea of Process Discovery techniques is to exploit event logs to
reconstruct causal relations among events that are then used to build a model of
the process. In order to deal with variability and noise in real-life logs, ltering
approaches have been introduced. The infrequent Inductive Miner (iIM)
algorithms [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
        ] adopted in this paper belongs to the class of ltering, block-based
techniques, that infer a model on the basis of a process tree built on frequent
behaviors only. The iIM algorithm adopts an iterative procedure. First, it generates
a directly-follows graph, i.e. a graph where each node corresponds to an event,
and an arc exists between two nodes A and B if event A appears immediately
before event B in at least one trace. The number of occurrences of each arc in the
log is recorded. The graph is then analyzed to nd a cut, i.e. a split of activities
into disjoint sets such that all the activities in a set are in the same ow relation
with all the activities of the other subsets. Sequence, exclusive choice, parallel
and loop operators each have their own characteristic cut. If a cut is found then
the corresponding operator is chosen as a node of the process tree, and the log is
in turn partitioned into sets that re ect the partition choice for the nodes of the
graph. The procedure is repeated until each sublog contains only a single event.
A user-de ned noise threshold 0 k 1 allows to control ltering. For instance,
an arc can be removed from the directly-follows graph if the ratio between its
number of occurrences and the occurrences of the strongest outgoing arc from
the same node is less than k.
      </p>
      <p>
        Conformance Checking is based on the notion of replay: each trace is
simulated on the process model one event at a time. When the current event cannot
be found at a given step, an alignment procedure is adopted to continue the
replay procedure, by either skipping the event in the log or the activity in the
process schema. Besides, a measure of the tness of the trace to the model is
calculated [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13</xref>
        ]. In the present work we will adopt the cost-based tness measures
de ned in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ].
3
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Mining of Students' Careers</title>
      <p>The major questions we like to answer can be stated as follows: \Do students
take (exams of) modules in the suggested order?" and \Which are best practices
and worst practices followed by students?". The order among teaching modules
is related to prerequisites suggested in modules programs, so that module A
should be taken before module B if A's contents are fundamental or useful to
understand B's contents. Of course there is only a partial order among modules,
since courses may deal with di erent, unrelated topics. Furthermore, best/worst
practices are de ned with respect to careers performances, as expressed by the
nal grade mark and length of the period of study.</p>
      <p>With these questions in mind, we exploited process mining as a descriptive
mining technique to obtain a synthetic view of the paths followed by students
from enrollment to bachelor degree, in the form of process schemas. The
methodology can be summarized as follows: after some data pre-processing, we obtain
a set of traces representing students' careers. Traces are segmented into three
disjoint groups depending on the nal grade mark and length of the period of
study. Then, for each group, a process model is synthesized in the form of Petri
Net by the iIM algorithm. Accuracy of the models is assessed by measuring its
tness over the entire set of traces in the group. In the following we provide some
details of these steps and of the results obtained.
3.1</p>
      <p>Data Selection and Preparation
Data are mainly taken from ESSE3, a software suite commonly adopted by
Universities to manage students' careers and in particular registration to exam
sessions and record of grades. We focused the analysis on the latest educational
system, as de ned by D.M. 270/2004, considering students enrolled from
Academic year 2009/10 on. This provides us with a set of homogenous curricula.
Furthermore only complete and correct curricula are considered, discarding
students who have not taken the degree yet, or students with exams con rmed from
previous degrees (these exams do not appear as database records, determining
oversimpli ed and short curricula). Further cleaning procedures were necessary
in order to deal with inconsistencies and null values generated during database
population at the time of ESSE3 software adoption. At the end, the careers of
187 graduated students were available for analysis. In order to reduce noise, a
further step was to delete from curricula the diverse modules freely chosen by
students from other courses of Universita Politecnica delle Marche.</p>
      <p>The nal dataset is a table with the following attributes: student ID, module
name, exam date, exam mark, duration of the period of study (calculated as the
di erence between the nal exam date and the enrollment date, conventionally
xed to the 1st of November of the Academic year of enrollment). The dataset
can be interpreted as a very simple event log, where each student is a case, and
exam passing is the set of events with their timestamp.</p>
      <p>
        Additional data attributes related to exam mark and duration are exploited
to segment the event log. As a matter of fact, a plain application of process
mining techniques to the whole event log did not lead to meaningful process
schemas. This can be expected, since the many optional choices and the lack
of mandatory prerequisites make the course of study very exibly customized
by students according to their needs and contingencies. In order to deal with
this kind of unstructured processes, di erent methodologies have been devised,
among which trace clustering and its process cube variant are pre-processing
techniques that are related to the approach followed in this study. In both
approaches the idea is to generate di erent groups of traces with homogeneous
characteristics such that better models can be obtained for each group. While
in trace clustering similarity is based on the sequence of events inside traces
(inner or structural trace similarity) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ], the process cube approach segment traces
according to common values of data attributes, independently from the trace
structure. Data attributes can be organized into hierarchies, thus
implementing a multidimensional cube of traces [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ]. In order to understand more clearly
whether prerequisites have an impact on nal performance, we decided to enrich
the log with exam mark and duration, and exploit them to segment students'
careers into three groups: high performance, medium, and low performance.
Table 1 shows the de nition of groups and careers distribution within each group.
As one can note from the table, the de nition of thresholds is such that careers
are roughly equally distributed in each group.
The ProM framework3 has been adopted to perform experiments, in particular
the infrequent Inductive Miner (iIM) and Replay a Log on Petri Net for
Conformance Analysis (Replay) plugins. For each group of careers, iIM has been
launched with di erent noise thresholds and the di erent models obtained have
been evaluated on the basis of the tness value calculated by Replay. In what
follows we discuss the best Petri Net models generated for high performance and
low performance careers. The former is shown in Figure 1. It is obtained with
noise threshold equal to 0:3 and has a tness equal to 96%. Circles and boxes
represents places and transition respectively. In particular white boxes
corresponds to events in the log (i.e., exams in our case study), while black boxes are
invisible transitions, they do not correspond to real events and are generated by
iIM in order to obtain a sound model. We can appreciate in the initial part of the
model a fairly structured ow, magni ed in Figure 2, followed by a more
irregular ow. The process starts with three parallel events, corresponding to exams
taken for modules of Algebra Lineare e Geometria, Fisica 1, Analisi Matematica
1. This means that, although there is not a strict precedence relation among
these exams in the log, students typically take all the three before moving to
3 www.promtools.org/prom6
other exams. The three courses are those scheduled during the rst semester
of the rst year. Similarly, the next four parallel events correspond to modules
scheduled during the second semester of the rst year. Hence, we can see that
students with the best careers basically follow the ideal order in taking exams
of the rst year. Subsequently, the schema shows a less structured ow. This is
expected, since free choice modules are introduced from the second year on, due
to the presence of two di erent curricula o ered by the course (Computer
Engineering and Automation Engineering respectively). Nevertheless, we can still
appreciate that the rst three groups of events all correspond to modules taught
in the second year.
      </p>
      <p>The model is even more interesting when contrasted with that generated
from low performing careers, shown in Figure 3. Here, the only regularity is that
students choose to take their rst exam among six courses taught in the rst
year (Fisica 2 being the one missed in the list), and that in a number of cases
the sequence of exam for Automazione Industriale, Progettazione Assistita da
Calcolatore, and Laboratorio di Automazione is followed. No other regularity can
be appreciated, suggesting the lack of any criteria in exams ow, and enlightening
striking di erences in the behaviors of students in the two groups.
4</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Discussion</title>
      <p>The one presented is a preliminary analysis of students careers, and conclusions
must be taken cautiously, in particular for what concerns the cause-e ect
relationship between high performance and structured course of study: is it that
following the \right" order of exams leads students to high performance, or is
it the other way around, i.e. students with a natural propensity to computer
and automation engineering (which in principle lead to high performance
somewhat independently from other factors) have a \structured mindset" and thus
follow the order proposed in course regulations? Nevertheless, the evidence of
such striking di erences between the two groups led us to disseminate results
among students, both inside di erent Faculty committees and during the degree
introductory activities, and they have been welcomed by students and
professors as the rst evidence-based discussion on the advantages of prerequisites.
The results also stimulated the board of degree in Computer and Automation
Engineering to spread among students information about modules' prerequisites,
and to develop actions able to increase awareness on the potential bene ts of a
thoughtful schedule of exams.</p>
      <p>
        Several further analyses can be performed to support and re ne results: rst
of all, we started replicating the methodology to other degrees, with
encouraging results. Second, more re ned clustering techniques, based both on ner
categories and on structural trace similarity may allow us to discover more
precise models. Third, we plan to apply di erent mining techniques: on the one
hand we will consider local process mining techniques, tackling unstructuredness
of processes by discovering simpler and more precise models of just parts of the
process, instead of start-to-end models [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14 ref6 ref7">6, 7, 14</xref>
        ], on the other hand we plan to
compare results with those of more traditional data mining techniques, in order
to enlighten the advantages of a process perspective of student careers. Finally,
information on student's background in terms of secondary school diploma and
grade can be exploited to check cause-e ect hypotheses. If further analyses will
con rm the robustness of the approach, we plan the design of a semi-automatic
advisory system, based on mined models, that can inform students when their
careers diverge signi cantly from best practices and/or show some other
worrying signs, thus moving from a descriptive to a predictive scenario.
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Acknowledgements</title>
      <p>We thank the Commissione Paritetica of the Faculty of Engineering, Universita
Politecnica delle Marche for his support in the development of the analysis
presented in this paper. We also wish to thank Dott. Ing. Matteo Marzioli for the
work done in carrying out experiments.</p>
    </sec>
  </body>
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