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    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Explanation to Avert Surprise</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Melinda Gervasio</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Karen Myers</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Eric Yeh</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Boone Adkins SRI International</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Ravenswood Avenue</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Menlo Park</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>California</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>firstname.lastname}@sri.com</string-name>
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>Most explanation schemes are reactive and informational: explanations are provided in response to specific user queries and focus on making the system's reasoning more transparent. In mixed autonomy settings that involve teams of humans and autonomous agents, proactive explanation that anticipates and preempts potential surprises can be particularly valuable. By providing timely, succinct, and context-sensitive explanations, autonomous agents can avoid perceived faulty behavior and the consequent erosion of trust, enabling more fluid collaboration. We present an explanation framework based on the notion of explanation drivers-i.e., the intent or purpose behind agent explanations. We focus on explanations meant to reconcile expectation violations and enumerate a set of triggers for proactive explanation. Most work on explainable AI focuses on intelligibility; investigating explanation in mixed autonomy settings helps illuminate other important explainability issues such as purpose, timing, and impact.</p>
      </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>
        INTRODUCTION
Humans judge mistakes by computer systems more harshly
than mistakes by other humans, with errors having a
disproportionately large impact on perceived reliability
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1,2</xref>
        ]. This negative impact on trust has particularly
significant repercussions for human-machine teams, where
the humans’ trust in the autonomous agents directly affects
how well they utilize the agents. The effect is particularly
unfortunate when the human perceives an agent to be
misbehaving when in fact it is behaving appropriately but in
response to conditions unknown to the user.
      </p>
      <p>We propose that a primary motivation for explanation
should be surprise. When an agent violates expectations—
typically, not in a good way—a human collaborator will
invariably want to know the reason why. Reacting to the
human’s surprise and explaining away the violation is a
valid approach, but even more effective would be if the
agent could anticipate the surprise and proactively explain
© 2018. Copyright for the individual papers remains with the authors.
Copying permitted for private and academic purposes. ExSS '18, March
11, Tokyo, Japan.
what it is about to do. This averts a potentially unpleasant
surprise that distracts the user and erodes trust.</p>
      <p>
        Our foray into explainable autonomy began a few years
ago, when we were developing autonomous agents for a
project on team autonomy for uncertain, dynamic,
adversarial environments in mixed human-machine settings.
As we observed the agents in action, we would sometimes
see puzzling behaviorfor example, an agent might
suddenly change course away from its intended destination.
Our first thought would almost invariably be that there was
a problem with the agent but, upon further inspection, we
would realize that the agent had good reason for its action.
For example, it might be reacting to an unexpected event or
diverting to a higher-priority task. A straightforward UI
showing the agents’ current plans helped somewhat to
alleviate this problem, but this was a solution targeted at the
autonomous agents’ designers, not at the end users who
would be teaming with these automated agents in the future.
The need for intelligent systems that could explain
themselves was recognized early on with expert systems
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">8</xref>
        ], with the desire of both system developers and end users
to better understand the reasoning behind a computational
system’s conclusions to determine whether it could be
trusted. More recently, the dominant work in explanation
has been on explaining the decisions of learned classifiers,
particularly in the context of interactive learning [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11 ref8">6,9</xref>
        ],
recommender systems [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12 ref4">3,10</xref>
        ], and deep learning [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">5,11</xref>
        ].
Explanation for autonomy differs in a number of ways. The
decision to be explained is typically part of a larger,
orchestrated sequence of actions to achieve some long-term
goal. Decisions occur at different levels of
granularityfrom overarching policies and strategic
decisions down to individual actions. Explanation is
required for various reasons under different circumstances:
before execution to explain planning decisions, during
execution to explain deviations from planned or expected
behavior, and afterwards to review agent actions.
In the collaborative human-machine team settings that we
are primarily interested in, whether humans serve as
supervisors or as teammates, explanation during execution
presents the additional challenge of limited cognitive
resources. With the human already engaged in a cognitively
demanding task, system explanations must be succinct,
timely, and context-sensitive. In particular, when a human
asks, “Why are you doing that?” it will often be because the
agent has done something unexpected and the agent’s
explanation must address that.
      </p>
      <p>EXPLANATION DRIVERS
We have developed an explanation framework based on the
concept of explanation drivers: the intent or purpose behind
an agent’s explanation. We distinguish between three
classes of drivers: Inform, Reconcile, and Prime.
Explanations to Inform are what most people typically think
of as explanations. They provide straightforward answers to
basic wh-questionsfor example, “What is your goal?” or
“How do you plan to achieve that goal?” or “Where are you
going?” In the mixed-team setting, Inform explanations are
particularly useful early on, when the human is still trying
to get an overall sense of an (unknown) agent’s
decisionmaking. However, even after some level of trust has been
already been established, Inform explanations often still
remain useful for maintaining that trust.</p>
      <p>Explanations that Reconcile address expectation violations.
They answer questions borne of surprisee.g., “What are
you doing!” or “Why aren’t you doing X?” or “Why did
you do Y [instead of Z]?” Reconcile explanations are most
effective when presented before the consequences of the
decision are apparent, to prevent the surprise in the first
place. For example, a warning from a firefighting drone that
it will be diverting to help extinguish a fire that is growing
faster than expected avoids surprising the user and possibly
causing concern. It also gives the user the opportunity to
change the plan—for example, to send the drone to its
original target and to co-opt a different one to help instead.
Finally, there are explanations that Prime the user for
assistance. Just as in human teams, communication and
coordination is critical in mixed teams. In
humansupervised settings, an important part of this collaboration
involves agents recognizing when they need help and
providing humans with the information they need to
provide appropriate guidance. Beyond simply asking for
help, Prime explanations inform humans why help is
needed to help them provide appropriate assistance. For
example, if the agent has low confidence in its best action,
it can let the human supervisor confirm or override.
Here we focus on Reconcile explanations—in particular, on
proactive explanations designed to avoid unpleasant
surprises for human collaborators. This decision to focus on
proactive explanations was partially validated by the results
of a small four-person user study we conducted in
mid2017. The study was in a fictional domain of drone
firefighting and rescue, and participants were given the task
of understanding what the drones were doing, with the
knowledge that world was dynamic (e.g., fires could start
and die out on their own) and that all information was
uncertain (e.g., groups to be rescued could appear and
disappear, fires could be larger/smaller than expected).
Participants were presented with snapshots of an evolving
scenario. In the baseline condition, they were provided with
basic information about current drone assignments and the
status of all known fires and groups, and they could ask
basic questions about the drones’ behavior. In the proactive
condition, they were also given preemptive explanations (as
textual pop-ups) of certain drone decisions.</p>
      <p>The participants all found the proactive explanations to be
useful. As one participant put it, “[Proactive explanations
were] very helpful, particularly anything that was
counterintuitive or represented a big change.” Based on the
questions participants asked, we observed that everyone
wanted to know the big picture, both in terms of the overall
plan and the agents’ overall priorities. In addition, the
participants expected the drones to address all the targets—
fires extinguished and groups rescued—with a strong
preference for saving people over extinguishing fires.
TRIGGERS FOR PROACTIVE EXPLANATION
Most explanation schemes are reactive: explanations about
system decisions are generated on-demand in response to
specific user queries. While reactive explanations are useful
in many situations, proactive explanations are sometimes
called for, particularly in mixed autonomy settings where,
for example, close coordination is required and humans are
engaged in tasks of their own or are supervising large
teams. Proactive explanations serve to keep the human’s
mental model of the agent’s decisions aligned with the
agent’s actual decision process, minimizing surprises that
can distract from and disrupt the team’s activities. Used
judiciously, they can also reduce the communication burden
on the human, who will have less cause to question the
agent’s decisions.</p>
      <p>We propose the use of surprise as the primary motivation
for proactivity, with agents using potential expectation
violations to trigger explanation. Identifying expectation
violations requires having a model of the user’s
expectations. However, instead of relying on a
comprehensive formal model of the human’s expectations
based on a representation of team and individual goals,
communication patterns, etc., we identify classes of
expectations based on the simpler idea of expectation
norms. That is, given a cooperative team setting where the
humans and the agents have the same objectives, we set out
to determine expectations on agent behavior based on
rational or commonsense reasoning. We enumerate a set of
triggers for proactive explanation, discussing for each one
the manifestation of surprise, the expectation violation
underlying the surprise, and the information that the
proactive explanation should impart (Table 1). The triggers
are not an exhaustive list but include a broad range that we
have found particularly useful in our work on explainable
autonomy.</p>
      <p>Lim &amp; Dey’s investigation of intelligibility demands is
focused on context-aware applications [7]; however, some
of their findings regarding the situations in which different
explanations apply are relevant here. In particular,
inappropriate actions, critical situations, situations</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Trigger</title>
      <sec id="sec-2-1">
        <title>Historical deviations</title>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Surprise</title>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Expectation</title>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Explanation</title>
      <sec id="sec-5-1">
        <title>Action differs from past</title>
        <p>behavior in similar situations</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-2">
        <title>Agent will behave as it has in the past</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-3">
        <title>Acknowledgement of unexpected action</title>
        <sec id="sec-5-3-1">
          <title>Unusual situations</title>
          <p>Atypical action</p>
        </sec>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-4">
        <title>Normal operation</title>
        <p>(Seemingly) incorrect action</p>
        <sec id="sec-5-4-1">
          <title>Preference violations</title>
          <p>Non-preferred action</p>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-5-4-2">
          <title>Indistinguishable effects</title>
          <p>Different action</p>
        </sec>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-5">
        <title>Agent has the same</title>
        <p>information as the human</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-6">
        <title>Agent will adhere to specified preferences</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-7">
        <title>Agent will perform ‘obvious’ action</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-8">
        <title>Actions according to plan</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-9">
        <title>Information about unusual situation</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-10">
        <title>Indicate decision criteria</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-11">
        <title>Acknowledgment of violation with rationale</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-12">
        <title>Information about equivalent options</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-13">
        <title>Change of plans and rationale</title>
        <sec id="sec-5-13-1">
          <title>Plan deviations</title>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-5-13-2">
          <title>Indirect trajectories</title>
          <p>Action contrary to plan
(Seemingly) aimless behavior</p>
        </sec>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-14">
        <title>Agent will move toward goal</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-5-15">
        <title>Plan for getting to goal</title>
        <p>involving user goals, and high external dependencies were
all found to increase the need for intelligibility, particularly
through why not and situation explanations.</p>
        <p>Historical Deviations
An important aspect of trust is predictability—a human will
generally expect an agent to perform the same actions that it
has performed in similar situations in the past. Thus, an
agent suddenly executing a different action is likely to
surprise the user. An agent can anticipate this situation
through a combination of statistical analysis of performance
logs and semantic models for situation similarity.
Explanation involves an acknowledgment of the atypical
behavior and the rationale behind it—for example,
“Aborting rescue mission because of engine fire.”
Unusual Situations
A human observer lacking detailed understanding of a
domain may be aware of actions for normal operations but
not of actions for more unusual situations. An agent’s
actions in these situations may thus surprise the user. The
agent can identify these situations by their frequency of
occurrence—for example, if the conditions that triggered
the behavior are below some probability threshold.
Explanation to avert this type of surprise involves
describing the unusual situation to the user. For example, an
agent might explain, “Normal operation is not to extinguish
fires with civilians on board but fire is preventing egress of
Drone 17 with a high-priority evacuation.”
Human Knowledge Limitations
Sensing and computational capabilities, particularly in
distributed settings, can enable autonomous platforms to
have insights and knowledge that are unavailable to human
collaborators. Through awareness of decisions based on this
information, an agent can identify potential mismatches in
situational understanding that can lead to surprising the user
with seemingly incorrect decision-making. Explanation
involves identifying the potential mismatch and surfacing
that to the user. For example, Google Maps already does
this to some extent when it suggests an unusual route along
with the justification that it is currently the best option
given current traffic conditions.</p>
        <p>
          Preference Violations
Many formulations of autonomy incorporate preferences
over desired behaviors, whether created by the system
modeler at design time or imposed by a human supervisor
later on. When making decisions, an agent will seek to
satisfy these preferences; however, various factors (e.g.,
resource limitations, deadlines, physical restrictions) may
require that they be violated, leading to the agent seemingly
operating contrary to plan and surprising the user.
Explanation in this case involves acknowledging the
violated preference or directive and providing the reason
why—for example, “Entering no-fly zone to avoid
dangerously high winds.”
Indistinguishability of Effects
Two actions may be very different in practice but achieve
similar effects—for example, different routes of similar
duration to the same destination. This can surprise a human
observer who may not have realized their comparable
effects or even been aware of the other (chosen) option.
Agents can anticipate this type of surprise by measuring the
similarity of actions or trajectories and of outcomes.
Explanation then involves making the human aware of
different options with similar impact—for example, “I will
extinguish Fire 47 before Fire 32 but extinguishing Fire 32
before Fire 47 would be just as effective.”
Plan Deviations
Agents are expected to be executing a plan to achieve a
goal. Inevitably, situations will arise that require a change
of plans which, if initiated by the agent, can cause surprise.
Absent an explicit shared understanding of the current plan,
an agent can rely on an expectation of inertia—that is, that
it will continue moving in the same direction, toward the
same target. By characterizing this tendency and
recognizing (significant) changes, the agent can anticipate
potential surprise. Explanation involves informing the user
of the plan change—for example, “Diverting to rescue
newly detected group.” This may be sufficient if it calls
attention to a new goal or target previously unknown to the
user but if the change involves a reprioritization of existing
goals, explanation also needs to include the rationale—for
example, “Diverting to rescue Group 5 before Group 4
because fire near Group 5 is growing faster than expected.”
Indirect Trajectories
More generally, agents are expected to be engaged in
purposeful behavior. In spatiotemporal domains, observers
can typically infer from an agent’s trajectory its destination
and, based on that, its goal. For example, a drone heading
toward a fire is likely to be planning to extinguish the fire.
Surprises occur when the agent has to take an indirect route
and appears to be headed nowhere meaningful. The agent
can identify this situation by determining the difference
between its actual destination and an apparent one, if any.
Explanation then involves explicitly identifying the goal
and the reason for the indirect action—for example, “New
task to retrieve equipment from supply depot.”
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
Prior work has noted the utility of surprise for driving
intelligent system behavior. Recognizing that the most
valuable information to users is information that
complements what they already know, Horvitz et al. [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">4</xref>
          ]
focus on surprising predictions as the situations about
which to alert the users in a traffic forecasting system.
Wilson et al. [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">12</xref>
          ] use surprise in an intelligent assistant for
software engineering to entice users to discover and utilize
programming assertions. Here, we use surprise to drive
proactive explanations and help users understand decisions
that might otherwise cause concern.
        </p>
        <p>We are currently investigating our approach to proactive
explanation in various explainable autonomy formulations.
In one where an autonomous controller selects, instantiates,
and executes plays from a pre-determined mission
playbook, we identify surprising role allocations based on
assignment to suboptimal resources and use degree of
suboptimality to drive proactivity. In another involving a
reinforcement learner acquiring policies in a gridworld
domain, we use sensitivity analyses that perturb an existing
trajectory to identify points where relatively small changes
in action lead to very different outcomes.</p>
        <p>Focusing on the motivation behind explanations in
collaborative autonomy settings helps bring to light issues
not often addressed in work on explainable AI. We present
a framework for explanation drivers, focusing in particular
on explanations for reconciling expectation violations. We
argue that averting surprise should be a primary motivation
for explanation and enumerate a set of triggers for proactive
explanations. While most current work on explanation
focuses opaque deep learning models and is thus primarily
concerned with interpretability, mixed autonomy settings
require additional metrics to capture the usefulness and
significance of explanations in terms of their quality and
impact. Ultimately, our objective is to provide evidence that
explanations enable the appropriate and effective use of
intelligent agents in mixed autonomy settings.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
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