The conceptual model of System for control and forecasting the emergency situations development that taking into account the influence on decision making by Air Navigation Socio-Technical System human-operator of professional and non-professional factors has obtained. Optimization models of decision making such as deterministic model, stochastic model (under risk and uncertainty), neural network models have presented. Behavioral models appropriate using in Decision Support Systems for timely predicting of humanoperator actions in the emergencies.
At present, one of the main strategic problems of humanity on the path to
sustainable development is the safety and reliability of technogenous production, which is a
complex system of interconnected technical, economic and social objects; has a
multilevel hierarchical structure and characterized by a high risk [
It is believed that aviation is the safest type of mass transportation and one of the
safest socio-technical production systems in the history of humanity. For a century,
aviation has gone a long way in the field of safety of flights from an unstable system
to the first "ultra-safe" system in the history of transport, that is, a system in which the
number of catastrophic failures in the field of safety is less than one million
production cycles [
Over the year 2017, the Aviation Safety Network [
Elimination of accidents remains the key point for all kinds of aviation activity.
But it is impossible for aviation systems to be completely free of hazardous factors
and associated with them risks. Neither human activity nor human designed systems
are completely free of operational errors and its consequences [
Statistics over the past decades indicate the dominant role of the human factor in
the total number of aviation accidents, which is about 80% [
The circular of ICAO presents the safety cases for cultural interfaces in aviation
safety with reference to established main conceptual safety models: SHEL model,
Reason’s model of latent conditions, Threat and Error Management (TEM) model and
other human factor's models [
The component Culture means the ongoing interaction of a group of people with their environment. Culture develops and changes due to technological, physical, and social changes in the environment. When pursuing safety in these systems, it is narrow and restrictive to look for explanations for accidents or safety deficiencies exclusively in technical terms or purely from the perspective of the behavioral sciences. It is necessary to systematically analyze and classify all the factors in the ANS as STS that have an impact on the H-O in the performance of professional activities guided by the requirements of ICAO documents in accordance with the steps below: 1. Analysis of ANS as STS: diagnostics, monitoring of the all factors (professional and non-professional (individual-psychological, socio-psychological and psychophysiological factors) that influence on decision making (DM) by the H-O in STS.
2. Determining the professional type of the operators namely energy consumption for the choice of profession and the compatibility of operators in the group.
Optimization Models of Decision Making by Human
Operator in Air Navigation Socio-Technical System
Decomposition of the DM process by H-O ANS and the systemic analysis of
influence of the factors of professional and non-professional activities on the DM in
ANSTS were done [
The conceptual model of System for control and forecasting the ES development that using DM models on the base of Artificial Intelligence System (AIS) / Decision Support System (DSS) was obtained (Fig. 1), where F p F ed , F exp – are the professional factors; F np F ip , F pf , F sp – are the non-professional factors; F ed – are the knowledge, skills and abilities, acquired H-O during training; F exp – are the knowledge, skills and abilities, acquired H-O during professional activity; F ip fipt , fipa , fipp , fipth , fipi , fipn , fipw , fiph , f exp – is a set of H-O individualpsychological factors (temperament, attention, perception, thinking, imagination, nature, intention, health, experience); F pf – is a set of H-O psycho-physiological factors (features of the nervous system, emotional types, sociotypes); F sp f spm , f spe , f sps , f spp , f spl – is a set of H-O socio-psychological factors (moral, economic, social, political, legal factors).
The analysis of social-physiological factors conducted by the authors allowed to
make a conclusion that the activities of pilots are influenced by the own image, the
image of corporation as well as by interests of a family. At the same time respondents
– air traffic controllers (ATC) pay special attention to interests of their families, their
own economic status and professional promotion [
Deterministic and stochastic models for ANS H-O (pilot, controller) were obtained in accordance with the flight manual of aircraft or the adopted technologies of controller’s work ASSIST (Acknowledge, Separate, Silence, Inform, Support, Time) in ES. Deterministic and stochastic models for ATC are presented in Fig. 2, where {А} – is the set of the operations which are carried out by the controller in accordance with ASSIST; {Т} – is the time of decision making; {Р} – is the set of the probabilities of j-factor influence during i-alternative solution choice; {U} – is the set of the losses associated with choosing i-alternative solution during j-factor influence; {R} – is the set of the risks associated with choosing i-alternative solution during j-factor influence; {λ} – is the set of the factors influencing DM.
a) b)
With using neural network models, the values of probabilities (pn) [
where f – is a non-linear function (active function) that takes into account the time of decision making tі; net – is a weighted sum of inputs.
The optimal solution is found by the criterion of an expected value with the Savage criterion (4):
where рi – are the weight coefficients; uі – are the neural network inputs; ξk– is a Bias (shift) under influencing factors of uncertainty (Table 1).
Factors that influencing on the decision making
The critical time of the flight crew actions in case of an engine failure on take-off
and approach to land in the bad weather conditions was obtained [
In stochastic network of the flight situation development of GERT type the tops are
represented by stages of the situation (normal, complicated, difficult, emergency or
catastrophic), and the arcs are represented by a process of transition between stages of
the situation. The algorithm of stochastic network analysis was developed [
In addition, with using reflexive model the risks RA, RB of DM in the ANS under
the influence of the external environment x1, the previous H-O’s experience x2 and the
intentional choice of H-O x3 have obtained [
RA minRij RDM RB , RAB X ( x1,x2 ,x3 ), , where RА – is an expected risk of the DM for H-O with taking into account the criterion of the expected value minimization; RВ – is an expected risk of the DM for H-O with taking into account his model of preferences; Rij – is an expected risk for making Аij-decision; γ – is a concept of a rational individual’s behaviour; ρ – is a system of individual’s preferences in a concrete situation of the choice; RАВ – is a mixed choice made by a H-O.
For example, if the pilot, the ATC and the society have a choice in the direction of
the negative pole B, the preferences model can form the plane of the disaster K [
Methodology of research and training in ANS as STS has developed [
Research has shown that the choice of the optimal variant of the forced flight
completion in emergencies requires from the operator to analyze the significant amount of
diverse information. The following conceptual models of DSS in ANS have obtained,
such as DSS for ATC in emergencies, for example “Aircraft Decompression”, “Low
oil pressure”, “Engine failure”, etc. [
Further research should be directed to solution of the complex practical tasks of improving the operator’s actions in different cases of emergencies, to creation the software for these problems. Models of ES development and of DM by UAV’s in ES will allow predicting the H-O’s actions with the aid of the informational-analytic and diagnostics complex for research H-O behavior in extreme situation.