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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Models and Applied Tools for Prediction of Student Ability to Effective Learning</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Oleg Spirin</string-name>
          <email>Oleg.Spirin@gmail.com</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Oleksandr Burov</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Institute of Education Content Modernization</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Kyiv</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="UA">Ukraine</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>Institute of Information Technologies and Learning Tools</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>Models of the system “Learner-techno-tools-environment” (SLTE) from viewpoints of psychophysiology, stages of learning and appropriate ICT tools were developed and their constructions were discussed. Functional system of cognitive activity (FSCA) in digital environment has been developed as a refinement of the previous general functional system of activity by K.Anokhin. In general case, the conceptual model can be considered as an information stratum of professional activity, and physiological chain „afferent inputs - activity acceptor - physiological control - effectors - act” is an energetic stratum in this context. The goal of professional training is forming the conceptual model of activity of the particular type, carrying out particular tasks. The FSCA was proposed as a structural functional system representing psychophysiological model of cognitive activity, and as a hyper-complex dynamic (HCD) system. Considering student's ability to lear (SAS) as a three-level closed hyper-complex dynamic system, in which factors of influence on the efficiency of SLTE are the elements of the HCD that interact with each other, the general suitability for the profession can be represented as the first level HCD, micro-age - as the second level HCD, current - as HCD of the third level. Theoretical models can be used in ICT for students' abilities assessment, monitoring of the intellect development on micro-age intervals, as well as for studying cognitive stability in over week's intervals.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>human abilities</kwd>
        <kwd>model</kwd>
        <kwd>functional system of activity</kwd>
        <kwd>hypercomplex dynamic system</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1 Introduction</title>
      <p>
        Nowadays’ general requirements to the higher education worldwide are based on
modern possibilities and tendencies [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ] to use electronic forms of education and, first
of all, online learning [16]. But more and more experts pay attention to “another site”
of this tendency, first of all, its efficiency [17] and strategy [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ]. Especially, because
electronic education gives new opportunities such as [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ]:
• Flexibility of education programs – a student can choose courses, teachers, time of
active work, etc.
• Individualization of education process – re-allocate time and education resources
in dependence on a student’s individual psychophysiological possibilities (features)
to make this process more intensive and to give equal opportunities for both
common people and people with disabilities.
      </p>
      <p>
        In this light it is important to give students and teachers’ knowledge in what way they
can adapt the education process to an individual and individual’s potential to the
learning process [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        It is known up to date a lot of methods, techniques and units patented and
published that are used for human performance reliability assessment and prediction in
the synthetic environment [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ], social systems [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
        ] or in operator occupations in
general [19]. But their efficiency can be evaluated really only from viewpoint of
prediction of efficiency related to a human education [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ] as a specific type of mental work
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15">15</xref>
        ] and needs in lifelong learning [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        It is necessary to highlight that learning performance becomes more and more
close to the operator work, because the human product (knowledge and skills) are
obtained via technical tools (gadgets, networks etc.), human activity can be described
as information search and processing, project activities that involve people
(teachers/mentors and learners) etc. In general, the human-learner interacts and collaborates
with other humans, tools, and environment. Together they form a system of activity
that can be described in terms of main features, goals and tasks of ergonomics as the
scientific discipline with its new features [20]. Accordingly, ergonomics findings
could be applied to education system accounting its specific impact on learners [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ]
and their safety [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ], as well as problems arising in cognitive activity which is most
characteristic for the learning process, especially in future adaptive automation of
industrial and educational fields [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>The purpose of the article is to describe model(s) of the system
“Learner-technotools-environment” (SLTE) from viewpoints of psychophysiology, stages of learning
and appropriate ICT tools.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>2 Results and Discussion</title>
      <p>
        The method used is based on the model proposed and generally discussed earlier [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ] .
This model is a development of the basic idea of P.Anokhin regards formation and
functioning of the “functional system of cognitive activity” (FSCA) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ].
2.1
      </p>
      <sec id="sec-2-1">
        <title>Methodology</title>
        <p>
          The learning activity could be analyzed as an operator work, because learners have to
do with the objects (information, facts, knowledge) indirectly, especially in digital
education, through the information model of the learning process [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
          ]. Work (activity)
of such a type has some specifics. The reason is that the conceptual model of activity
(as result of a human psychological adaptation to the work) is expanded in the time
independently on external process and an activity consists in discrete comparison of
the information obtained from outside with the model formed and corrected
permanently. In general case, the conceptual model can be considered as an information
stratum of professional activity, and physiological chain „afferent inputs – activity
acceptor – physiological control – effectors - act” is an energetic stratum in this
context. The goal of professional training is forming the conceptual model of activity of
particular type, carrying out particular tasks. It means creation of „information
contour” that exists and is maintained in activated state in carrying out process for
purposeful activity and embraces afferent inputs, decision making block, activity
acceptor and act program, as well as the object of activity (is represented as information
model in case of operator-watcher that creates the information contour together with
the imagine-conceptual model).
        </p>
        <p>As it was stated, the energetic and information stratums can be represented as two
contours which partly coincide at the level of morphological structures and functions,
but partly differ because of including into the information contour an activity object
that does not participated in the energetic contour of the organism regulation, but is an
inalienable part of the information contour. Human activity is a mediator between
internal and external environment of organism, projection of structural-function
specific of professional homeostasis on the operator work. Output parameters of the
activity program (activity effectors) stand in the information contour as parameters of
capability. In such a context, operator’s activity is an activity program realized as
physical and/or mental acts in external environment.
In the digital world and synthetic learning the external object may not exist. Instead of
it, the virtual object can appear (“cogni object”) that is produced by the virtual act
program and can be not a result of training and experience, existing in time of the
particular activity (f.e., during the game). This object and interaction with it can be
created by sensors (information for them is produced by artificial system, virtual one,
simulating real world) and the act acceptor compares virtual result with virtual
sensors signals, creating the cognitive model of the synthetic object. In such a case, an
illusion of the object as well as knowledge regards it appears.</p>
        <p>
          This model can explain the phenomenon of not expectedly low effective
performance after watching others acts [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
          ]. As authors revealed, “extensive viewing allows
people to track what steps to take … but not how those steps feel when taking them.
Accordingly, experiencing a “taste” of performing attenuates the illusion: Watching
others juggle but then holding the pins oneself tempers perceived change in one’s own
ability”. From our point of view, watching (in that experiment, in YouTube) or
imaging (in virtual world) some even real others work can create only virtual act program,
that does not coincide, in whole or in part, with real world and does not allow to form
practical act program (at least, at the sensory-motor level).
2.2
        </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-2">
        <title>FSA as a hyper-complex dynamic system</title>
        <p>The phenomenon described above, has pointed to another challenge of education
efficiency, dealt with conformity of the person abilities to requirements of the
particular kind of action.</p>
        <p>
          Taking into account the multilevel character of psychophysiological indicators
involved in the formation of a student's working condition and the heterogeneity of the
parameters influencing the functioning of the FSA, as well as the importance of
taking into account the dynamic nature of the FSA, there is a need for the choice of
adequate tools for solving the problems of invariant modeling with the aim of studying,
developing and applying the most common patterns and principles of simulation of
complex multi-quality systems, which are the systems for assessing the student's
ability to study (SAS) at different levels, regardless of the nature of their application. As a
tool for general description of the system, the theory of hyper-complex dynamic
systems (HCD) was chosen. It was developed by O.N. Malyuta [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
          ] where
hypercomplexity is understood as the variability of data, and the set of close-to-quality
components that forms 1 element of the HCD. Accordingly, the number of elements
determines the order of the HCD. An important feature is the mandatory presence of
interaction between the elements. The analysis of the HCD as an isolated object
requires that the interaction of the elements should be realized through the internal
resources of the system, for example, as a result of the dynamics of at least one element.
        </p>
        <p>Considering SAS as a three-level closed hyper-complex dynamic system, in which
factors of influence on the efficiency of SLTE are the elements of the HCD that
interact with each other, the general suitability for the profession can be represented as the
first level HCD, micro-age - as the second level HCD, current - as HCD of the third
level.</p>
        <p>In general, the use of the system analysis, difficulties arise, as a rule, when
describing the hierarchical properties of the system. In order to solve this difficulty, we
propose to use a description of the system in the form of hyper-complex matrices:
The use of hyper-complex matrices allows us to eliminate these defects and formally
make links between elements of different levels and between elements of the same
level.</p>
        <p>The physical meaning of the matrix elements is as follows:
sub-matrix Y1.1 - indicators of general SAS (professional suitability), which
include:</p>
        <sec id="sec-2-2-1">
          <title>Y (1.1) (1.1) - parameters of intelligence,</title>
          <p>Y (1.2) (1.2) - cognitive parameters,</p>
          <p>Y (1.3) (1.3) - parameters of the mobility of the nerve processes;
sub-matrix Y2.2 - indicators of micro-level abilities (professional formation);
sub-matrix Y3.3 - indicators of current abilities, which consist of:</p>
          <p>Y (3.1) (3.1) - physiological parameters of SAS,</p>
          <p>Y (3.2) (3.2) - parameters of cognitive activity.</p>
          <p>The non-zero element of the matrix corresponds to the presence of a connection
between the elements; the absence of an element means the absence of a connection
between the corresponding elements of the matrix. For example, Y (1.1) (1.2) means
that the intellect affects the student's cognitive abilities as well as the mobility of the
neural processes Y (1.3) (1.2). In the sub-matrix Y3.3 there is a mutual influence of
parameters of cognitive activity (for example, speed) and physiological maintenance
of efficiency.</p>
          <p>The formalization of the interaction mechanism of the HCD elements can be
described using hyper-complex matrices in expanded form. For the general case of
describing the interaction of elements of the structure of professional suitability,
formalization is carried out in this way.</p>
          <p>Model of the "reference student" is a HCD-model of three different-quality
structures: personal characteristics (socio-psychological), intelligence
(individual"logical"), psychodynamic (neuro-dynamic). The identification process consists in
creating (constructing) a system model that summarizes the psychophysiological
structures given for a specific type of activity (training profile). Then the HCD-model
of each particular student is constructed on the basis of the results of the study of his
individual qualities and the degree of mismatch between the two models is checked
by the degree of conformity of the student of the chosen profession.</p>
          <p>If we consider each structure as an element of open-loop HCD exposed to external
actions of Ii and undergo changes dφi under the influence of these actions, as well as
accounting the specific intensity of the interaction of elements among themselves in
the course of the implementation of educational activity yij, then we can write the
equation for the first element:
where is the HCD interaction, dφiyij is the symbol of element i while taking into
account its quantitative and qualitative aspects. In the general case, by simplifying the
recording of a hyper-complex interaction sign by replacing it the sign of a normal
addition, we obtain a complete system of equations:</p>
        </sec>
        <sec id="sec-2-2-2">
          <title>In the matrix short form:</title>
          <p>dφ1 + dφ2 y12 + dφ3 y13 = I1,
dφ1 y21 + dφ2 + dφ3 y23 = I2,
dφ1 y31 + dφ2 y32 + dφ3 = I3.</p>
          <p>YΦ = I
(3)
(4)
2.3</p>
        </sec>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-3">
        <title>ICT for learner assessment</title>
        <p>Described theoretical models correspond to real ICT used for high school children
assessment. At present, we provide service in assessment of adolescents’ ability level
and giftedness. The tool of the second level allowed to realize monitoring of the
abilities on micro-age intervals and to study dynamics of student intellect from grades 8 to
11. The tool of 3d level is used for studying cognitive abilities changes over one
month period under influence of learning workload and external factors, as well as
balancing between cognitive productivity and physiological maintenance of particular
high school students (experimental groups).</p>
        <p>The statistical models (multiple regression equations) were used for practical
reasons in all tools.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>3 Conclusions and outlooks</title>
      <p>Models of the system “Learner-techno-tools-environment” (SLTE) from viewpoints
of psychophysiology, stages of learning and appropriate ICT tools were developed
and their constructions were discussed.</p>
      <p>Functional system of cognitive activity (FSCA) in digital environment has been
developed as a refinement of the previous general functional system of activity by
K.Anokhin.</p>
      <p>The FSCA was proposed as a structural functional system representing
psychophysiological model of cognitive activity, and as a hyper-complex dynamic system.</p>
      <p>Theoretical models can be used in ICT for students’ abilities assessment,
monitoring of the intellect development on micro-age intervals, as well as for studying
cognitive stability in over week’s intervals.
16. Spirin O.M. Criteria and indicators of quality ICT training. Informatsiini tekhnolohii i
zasoby navchannia. Informatsiini tekhnolohii i zasoby navchannia. 2013. #1 (33). Rezhym
dostupu do zhurnalu: http://journal.iitta.gov.ua (In Ukrainian)
17. Tawnell D. Hobbs. As Online Schools Expand, So Do Questions About Their
Performance. The Wall Street Journal.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-online-schools-expandso-do-questions-about-their-performance-1518191429
18. The Global Human Capital Report 2017. (Preparing people for the future of work). World
Economic Forum 2017, p.V. Access:
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Human_Capital_Report_2017.pdf.
19. Veltman H. Operator functional state assessment. Cognitive load / Veltman H., Wilson G.,</p>
      <p>Burov O. // NATO Science Series RTO-TR-HFM-104. – Brussels, 2004. – P. 97–112.
20. Wilson G., Schlegel R. E., Veltman J. A., Burov O.Yu. et al. (2004). Operator functional
state assessment. RTO-TR-HFM-104 AC/323 (HFM-104) TP/48 RTO technical report
HFM.
21. Wilson John R., Carayon Pascale. Systems ergonomics: Looking into the future –
Editorial for special issue on systems ergonomics/human factors. Applied Ergonomics. Volume
45, Issue 1, January 2014, Pages 3–4.</p>
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