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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>A Markov Model of Healthcare Internet of Things System Considering Failures of Components</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>National Aerospace University “KhAI”</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Kharkiv</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="UA">Ukraine</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>An active infiltration of information technology in the healthcare sector has led to a fundamental change in people's quality of life. In this regard, the security and safety problems of this technology using increase rapidly. This paper touches upon the issue of the healthcare Internet of Things (IoT) infrastructure failures of components and complete system. The purpose of the paper is to develop and research an availability model of a healthcare IoT system regarding failures of components. A detailed analysis of an architecture of healthcare IoT infrastructure is given. The main causes of the healthcare IoT based system failures are considered. Much attention is given to developing and research of a Markov model of a healthcare IoT system considering failures of components. Some essential high-level requirements that such system must meet are presented. The analysis of obtained simulation results showed the rates that have the greatest influence on the availability function of the healthcare IoT system.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>Availability Function</kwd>
        <kwd>Cloud</kwd>
        <kwd>Failure</kwd>
        <kwd>Insulin Pump</kwd>
        <kwd>Internet of Things</kwd>
        <kwd>Markov Model</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>1.1</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Introduction</title>
      <sec id="sec-2-1">
        <title>Motivation</title>
        <p>
          The paradigm of the Internet of Things (IoT) implies the possibility of massively and
inexpensively connecting to an information network (for example, the Internet) any
physical object and control systems for these objects. IoT in general promises textually
to every citizen and every company, regardless of the industry - its own set of benefits
and improvements, savings and growth, the release of time and new opportunities. On
the basis of these statements, the IoT has already found applying in many industries.
According to predictive forecasts [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref2">1-2</xref>
          ], the number of networked and connected
devices will increase to 25.6 billion. In 2017 IoT has been ranked as the first among the
eight breakthrough technologies that can change the business model of companies or
entire industries, advancing artificial intelligence, augmented reality, technology
related to the creation and management of the drones, blockchain etc [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
          ]. The IoT has
already a great impact in many economical areas [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
          ] as transport, energy, healthcare,
industry, agriculture, wearables, smart retails, smart homes, etc.
        </p>
        <p>One of the most promising and already most advanced industries are medicine and
healthcare. Networked medical and healthcare devices and their applications are
already creating an Internet of Medical and/or Healthcare Things which is aimed at
better health monitoring and preventive care for creating better conditions for patients
who require constant medical supervision and/or preventive intervention. Healthcare
and medical organizations (providers) also attempt to collect and analyze data that
generate the IoT devices that are essential for prospective innovations.</p>
        <p>
          One of the most sought-after fields in healthcare and medicine treatment, monitoring
and prognosis is Diabetes. According to [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
          ] an estimated 422 million adults were living
with diabetes in 2014, compared to 108 million in 1980, the global prevalence of
diabetes has nearly doubled since 1980, rising from 4.7% to 8.5% in the adult
population, it caused 1.5 million deaths in 2012, and higher-than-optimal blood glucose
caused an additional 2.2 million deaths and they predict that Diabetes will be the 7th
leading cause of death in 2030.
        </p>
        <p>But the new concepts and applying of new technologies bring certain risks including
failures of devices, infrastructure which may lead to the worst outcome - the death of
the user (patient). Hence to minimize such risks and assure required availability the
system models and strategies of maintenance should be developed and researched.
1.2</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-2">
        <title>State-of-the-Art</title>
        <p>For today there are a lot of papers that describe opportunities and benefits of using
smart and intellectual technologies in the field of healthcare and medicine and at the
same time they describe the security and safety problems of this technology using.</p>
        <p>
          One of the most famous and almost all covering paper is [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
          ]. The authors tried to
show all the healthcare IoT trends, solutions, platforms, services and applications. They
outlined main problems during development and using of such devices related mostly
to standardization and regulatory issues. In addition, that paper analyzed healthcare IoT
security and privacy features, including requirements, threat models, and attack
taxonomies and proposed an intelligent collaborative security model to minimize
security risk. But the authors did not address the issues of reliability and safety analysis,
did not consider the possible failures of the healthcare IoT system and its particular
components and the influence on performance.
        </p>
        <p>
          The authors of [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
          ] presented three use cases for quality requirements for IoT in
healthcare applications. One of them is for safety and violence. They gave a simple
construct for a patient or caregiver safety use case. Also, they refer to the US
Underwriters Laboratories [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
          ] and as well recommended using “traditional techniques
for defining misuse and abuse cases”.
        </p>
        <p>
          Goševa-Popstojanova and Trivedi in [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
          ] provided an overview of the approach to
reliability assessment of systems. The architecture of system could be modeled as a
discrete time Markov chain, continuous time Markov chain, or semi-Markov process.
        </p>
        <p>
          The Markov model that takes into account the technical conditions of typical
network components of the IoT-based smart business center was presented in [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
          ].
        </p>
        <p>
          In [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
          ] was proposed a Markov Queuing approach to analyzing the Internet of
Things reliability with some experimental results.
        </p>
        <p>
          The paper [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
          ] describes an approach to developing a Markov models’ set for a
healthcare IoT infrastructure that allows taking into account safety and security issues.
It details the models sets for the healthcare IoT system based on Markov process
approach.
        </p>
        <p>Nevertheless, despite a large number of researches regarding healthcare IoT, there
are no papers that consider safety and reliability issues of healthcare IoT systems taking
into account failures of hardware and software components and system failures.
1.3</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-3">
        <title>Objectives, Approach and Structure of Paper</title>
        <p>The goal of the paper is to analyze and develop a model that describes the healthcare
IoT system failures and their influence on availability indicators. Our approach is based
on review of the variety of existing techniques and mathematical models for similar
systems and step by step development of a set of states and transitions caused by failures
of system components.</p>
        <p>In this context, the paper proposes the Markov model describing possible failures of
healthcare IoT system and recovery procedures. The remainder of this paper is
organized as follows. The second section describes an architecture of healthcare IoT
infrastructure and possible failures during its operation. The third is devoted to the
development of the Markov model of a healthcare IoT system considering failures of
components and analyzing simulation results. The last section concludes and discusses
future research steps.
2
2.1</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Analysis of Healthcare IoT Failures</title>
      <sec id="sec-3-1">
        <title>The Architecture of Healthcare IoT Infrastructure</title>
        <p>
          Analysis of the latest publications related to this topic [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11 ref13 ref6">6, 11, 13</xref>
          ] allows us to present a
generalized architecture of the healthcare IoT infrastructure that can be seen in Fig. 1.
Thereby it is possible to identify the main components and subcomponents of
healthcare IoT system. They are:
• Wireless body area network (WBAN) consists of different sensors located in
different parts of human’s body and body control unit. Sensors are used to record
physiological processes and convert the received data into a format convenient for
perception and analysis. There are different kinds of medical sensors and first of
all they are classified as consumer products for health monitoring, wearable
external, internally embedded and stationary [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
          ]. These sensors or even devices
can capture such data as blood pressure, temperature, electrocardiogram (ECG),
electroencephalogram (EEG), accelerometer, the global positioning system (GPS),
electromyography (EMG), etc. Data collected by sensors are transmitted to the
body control unit using e.g. Bluetooth or ZigBee protocols. The control unit is
designed to read reports, monitor status, change settings, and update the device's
firmware. It can directly connect to Cloud servers if it has WiFi or cellular
interfaces or through monitoring unit using Bluetooth or WiFi;
• Cloud servers provide easy access to servers, storage, databases and a wide range
of software services on the Internet. The main purposes of the cloud are storage,
analytics, and visualization. Clouds provide reception of telemetry data in the
required volume from the devices and determination of the way of processing and
storing the obtained data, allow healthcare telemetry analysis to provide valuable
information both in real time and later and send commands from the cloud or
gateway device to a specific healthcare device. Also, the server part of the Internet
of things’ cloud should provide the device registration capabilities that allow
preparation of the device and control which devices are allowed to connect to the
infrastructure and device management for monitoring the status of devices and
monitor their actions. Using cloud services, it is possible to effectively store and
dynamically process data, interact and integrate data;
• A healthcare authority pulls an analytical report for each patient to check t he
patient's illness status. He evaluates the data and sends a notification. The patient
receives a notification that advises whether to consult a doctor.
        </p>
        <p>
          In this paper, the main subject of the study is an insulin pump operating in the
infrastructure of the IoT. An activity diagram for the insulin pump operating
independently without interaction with other devices or Internet was described in
[
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15">15</xref>
          ]. The author illustrated how the software transforms an input blood sugar level
to a sequence of commands that drive the insulin pump. Fig. 2 shows an improved
version for the insulin pump operating in the infrastructure of IoT and interaction
with other components.
        </p>
        <p>The data from the blood sugar sensor send to the blood sugar analysis and insulin
requirement computation what is carried out by integrated technical possibilities and
tools of the insulin pump and/or sends to the Cloud servers via the Internet gateway for
further processing, storage, and visualization. The patient’s data can be analyzed using
e.g. artificial intelligence tools in the Cloud. The decision made by artificial intelligence
tools sends to the healthcare authority for the conclusive prescription and finally to the
patient or insulin pump user. In more details, decisions that were made by the healthcare
authority are also loaded into the Cloud, and then insulin pump user (control unit)
downloads prescriptions.
2.2</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-2">
        <title>Analysis of Failures</title>
        <p>It is clear that the healthcare IoT based system is a safety-critical system. If the pump or any
other significant element fails to operate or does not operate correctly, then the patients’
health may be damaged or they may fall into a coma because their blood sugar levels are
too high or too low, or the doctor’s prescription is not received by the patient, etc. There are,
therefore, some essential high-level requirements that such system must meet:
1. The system shall be available to deliver insulin when required.
2. The system shall perform reliably and deliver the correct amount of insulin to
counteract the current level of blood sugar.
3. Any component of the IoT system shall interact with any other when required.
4. The system shall be able to scale.
5. The Cloud component shall be able to process, storage and visualize all patients’
data when required.
6. The healthcare authority component shall be able to respond to all patient requests
when required, etc.</p>
        <p>Thereby as in any other information and technology systems, failures also may occur
in the IoT based systems. Fig. 3 depicts in outline the main causes of healthcare IoT
based system failures.</p>
        <p>
          In papers [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14 ref15 ref16 ref17 ref18 ref19 ref20">14 - 20</xref>
          ] were described failures of insulin pumps that were caused by
different reasons (e.g. sensors failure, control unit failure due to hardware and/or
software, etc.). Analysis of papers [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref21 ref22 ref23 ref24">21 - 24</xref>
          ] shows the possible failures of Cloud
servers. These failures are caused due to software failure, hardware failure, scheduling,
service failure, power outage, denser system packaging, etc. Accordingly, it is possible
to assert that the reasons of failures may be variable and depend on failures of healthcare
IoT infrastructure each component.
        </p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Case Study: A Markov Model of Healthcare IoT System</title>
      <sec id="sec-4-1">
        <title>Markov Model Development</title>
        <p>
          In [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
          ] basic models were described, in details, simple cases with a few models of
healthcare IoT system based on the queueing theory. These models describe streams of
the requests and attacks on vulnerabilities and procedure of recovery by a restart and
eliminating of ones. In this paper, the model of the functioning of the main components
of healthcare IoT system is proposed. The assumptions in the development of the model
are the failure of rate is constant, the model does not take into account eliminating of
any reasons because of what failures caused.
        </p>
        <p>In general, in the healthcare IoT system, the failures of single subcomponents are
possible. These failures may lead to the failures of the main components of
infrastructure (i.e. insulin pump, cloud, etc.). In its turn, the failures of main
components may lead to failure of the whole healthcare IoT system. Fig. 4 shows the
dependence of the healthcare IoT system failures, where 0 – there is no any failure in
the system, 1 – there is one failure (of subcomponent), 2 – there are two failures
(subcomponent and main element), 3 – there are three failures (the failure of the whole
healthcare IoT system).</p>
        <p>In more details Fig. 5 shows a Markov graph of the functioning of the main
components of healthcare IoT system during failures, λ - the failure rate, µ - the
recovery rate. Thereby, the basic states of the healthcare IoT system are: 1 - normal
condition (upstate) system; 2 - failure due to the power supply (battery) pump causes
discharge, recharging and/or causing damage; 3 - failure of any one and/or more
sensors of the insulin pump due to the out-of-order, does not deliver any output to
inputs, delivers null output values and/or no meaningful values and/or impurity etc.);
4 - pump failure (inaccurate size/rate of insulin dose) due to the components defects,
improper position of pump, ambient temperature, air pressure and/or design errors
etc.; 5 - software of insulin pump control module failure due to buffer overflow or
underflow, incorrect libraries, wrong algorithms or programming, threshold setting
error etc.; 6 - hardware of insulin pump control module failure due to overheating,
short or open circuit, high leakage current, high or low impedance, missed alarm,
false alarm, fail to read/write data and/or design error etc.; 7 - intra wireless body
area network (WBAN) communication failure due to the packet loss, isolation, a
communication module failure (e.g., L2CAP, BNEP etc.), header corruption and/or
length mismatch and/or payload corruption etc.; 8 - insulin pump (as the patient’s
complex) failure due to the failure of any one or more main components; 9 - extra
gateway communication partial failure due to data delivery failures; 10 - extra
gateway communication partial failure due to Bluetooth/cellular/WiFi network
unavailable; 11 - partial failure due to the refusal of the mobile application of the
reader (control unit); 12 - cloud software failure due to planned or unplanned reboot,
software updates and/or complex design; 13 - cloud hardware failure due to hard disk
failures, RAID controller, memory and/or other devices; 14 - cloud scheduling failure
due to overflow and/or timeout; 15 - cloud service failure due to request stage and/or
execution stage; 16 - cloud failure due to power outage; 17 - cloud failure due to the
failure of any one and/or more cloud components; 18 - failure due to incorrect
assignment or programming of the device by a healthcare authority related to device
functions or lack of functions; 19 - failure of the IoT healthcare system.</p>
        <p>A system of Kolmogorov differential equations for presented Markov model is:
+115 +116 +118)P1(t)+21P2 (t)+31P3 (t)+41P4 (t)+51P5 (t)+61P6 (t)+
+71P7 (t)+81P8 (t)+91P9 (t)+101P10 (t)+111P11(t)+121P12 (t)+131P13 (t)+
+141P14 (t)+151P15 (t)+161P16 (t)+171P17 (t)+181P18 (t)+191P19 (t);
dP2 /dt = −21P2 (t)+12P1(t);
dP3 /dt = −13P3(t)+13P1(t);
dP4 / dt = −(41 +45)P4 (t)+14P1(t);
dP5 /dt = −(51 +58)P6 (t)+16P1(t)+45P4 (t)+185P18 (t);
dP6 / dt = −(61 +68)P6 (t)+16P1(t);
dP7 / dt = −(71 +78)P7 (t)+17P1(t);
dP8 /dt = −(81 +819)P8 (t)+58P5 (t)+68P6 (t)+78P7 (t);
dP9 / dt = −9P9 (t)+19P1(t);
dP10 /dt = −101P10 (t)+110P1(t);
dP11 /dt = −111P11(t)+111P1(t)+1711P17 (t);
dP12 /dt = −(121 +1217)P12 (t)+112P1(t);
dP13 / dt = −(131 +1317)P13(t)+113P1(t);</p>
        <p>Initial values are:
dP17 / dt = −(1711 + 1719 + 171 )P17 (t ) + 1217 P12 (t ) + 1317 P13 (t ) + 1417 P14 (t ) +</p>
        <p>P1(0) = 1, Pi(0) = 0, i = 2,3, …, 19.</p>
        <p>To solve a system of the linear Kolmogorov differential equations it is necessary to
carry out the collection and analysis of statistics on failures of healthcare IoT systems.
3.2</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-2">
        <title>Simulation of the Developed Markov Model</title>
        <p>
          Hence the initial data for Markov model simulating were taken from [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16 ref18 ref19 ref20">16, 18-20</xref>
          ] for the
insulin pump failures, for the Cloud failures [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref22 ref23 ref24">22-24</xref>
          ] and experts’ assessments. Due to
the heterogeneous nature and complexity of statistical data, and not to overflow with
excess information, the sequence of rates’ calculations and the rates are not given in
this paper.
        </p>
        <p>The working state is state 1, and eighteen others are states with failures of different
components and parts of the healthcare IoT system. The obtained probabilities of
finding the healthcare IoT system in each state of Markov model are shown below
(stationary values):</p>
        <p>P1 = 0.9853745; P2 = 0.000103622; P3 = 0.003330566;
P4= 0.000251795; P5 = 0.001162896; P6 = 0.0003859747;
P7 = 0.006145591; P8 = 0.0009757008; P9 = 0.001486934;
P10 = 0.0006328081; P11 = 3.207395e-05; P12 = 3.070724e-05;
P13 = 1.056492e-05; P14 = 2.90451e-05; P15 = 2.596815e-05;
P16 = 5.734457e-06; P17 = 3.038937e-08; P18 = 1.545724e-05;
P19 =2.957985e-08.</p>
        <p>Hence A(t) = P1(t). Fig. 6 shows the availability function changing before a
transition to the stationary value (Astationary = 0.9853745). According to the simulation
results the function gets a qua approximately at step 2300 h, i.e. 3 months later after
beginning of work.
Fig. 7 – 10 show the dependence of the availability function changing depending on the
different types of failures changing on the healthcare IoT systems rates.
Fig. 8. Dependence of the availability function changing depending on the changing λ15 rate.
Fig. 9. Dependence of the availability function changing depending on the changing λ110 rate.
The obtained results analysis shows that the greatest influence on the change in the
availability function is the λ15 rate and the next is the λ13 rate (i.e. different
components of the patient device (for our case of insulin pump) failures). The least
influence has the failures of cloud components due to the rapid recovery time. These
results are confirmed by statistical data.</p>
        <p>The analysis of obtained results shows that the complete failure of the healthcare IoT
system does not happen too often (one case on the analyzed time interval due to the
complete failure of the Cloud). Nevertheless, failures of constituent elements of the
system arise quite often that may affect the performance of mission-critical functions
of the healthcare IoT system and in the worst case, lead to the death of the patient. The
most often failures are due to the failure of the insulin pump and its particular elements
and components and some components of the Cloud.</p>
        <p>Availability of the system can be improved by more fast recovery (repair) of the
equipment and system resources and application of more reliable devices.
4</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Conclusions and Future Work</title>
      <p>Due to the use of the IoT technologies, the interaction of objects, environment, and
people will be extremely active, and it is making it possible to hope that the world will
be "smart" and a well-appointed for a person. However, at the same time, the IoT faces
a number of problems that can prevent us from taking power of its potential advantages.</p>
      <p>In this paper, the overview of the healthcare IoT system failures is presented. Based
on the conducted analysis and classification of the main possible failures of healthcare
IoT infrastructure a Markov model considering failures of components is constructed.
For the developed model probabilities of finding IoT system in each state of Markov
model are shown. The obtained results show possible most frequent failures of
healthcare IoT system. The presented Markov model can be used not only for the
availability evaluation of insulin pumps but for other healthcare devices operating in
IoT system.</p>
      <p>Next steps of research will be dedicated to a development of more general
dependability models for healthcare IoT systems and combining results of this paper
and models taking into account both the reliability, safety and security requirements
and issues.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>Acknowledgements</title>
      <p>This paper implies results obtained during involvement in the Erasmus+ programme
educational project ALIOT «Internet of Things: Emerging Curriculum for Industry and
Human Applications» (reference number
573818-EPP-1-2016-1-UK-EPPKA2-CBHEJP, web-site http://aliot.eu.org) in which the appropriate course is under development
(ITM4 - IoT for health systems). Within its framework, the teaching modules related to
IoT systems modelling were developed. The authors would like to thank colleagues on
this project, within the framework of which the results of this work were discussed.</p>
      <p>The authors also would like to show deep gratitude to colleagues from Department
of Computer Systems, Networks and Cybersecurity of National Aerospace University
n. a. N. E. Zhukovsky «KhAI» for their patient guidance, enthusiastic encouragement
and useful critiques of this paper.</p>
    </sec>
  </body>
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