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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Patching the Firewall Software to Improve the Availability and Security: Markov Models for Internet of Things Based Smart Business Center</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Maryna Kolisnyk</string-name>
          <email>kolisnyk.maryna.al@gmail.com</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Iryna Piskachova</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Vyacheslav Kharchenko</string-name>
          <email>v_s_kharchenko@csn.khai.edu</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Department of Automation and Control in Technical Systems, National Technical University “KPI”</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Kharkiv</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="UA">Ukraine</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>Department of Computer Science and Control Systems, Ukrainian State University of the Railway Transport</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Kharkiv</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="UA">Ukraine</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2">
          <label>2</label>
          <institution>Department of Computer Systems, Networks and Cyber Security, National Aerospace University “KhAI” Kharkiv</institution>
          ,
          <country country="UA">Ukraine</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>The paper considers the tasks and solutions for availability assessing and securing the Internet of Things (IoT), in particular, the Smart Business Center (SBC) with wired communication networks. The goal of this paper is to develop and research of SBC availability models, taking into account the changes in power consumption modes in operating systems, denial-of-services (DDoS) attacks, patching for firewalls depending on the presence of software vulnerabilities, considering reliability of system components such as a server and a router. Comparison of several models of the IoT system availability has been made and recommendations have been formulated regarding the policy of patching.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>IoT</kwd>
        <kwd>a Markov model</kwd>
        <kwd>DDoS attack</kwd>
        <kwd>patch on the firewall software</kwd>
        <kwd>security</kwd>
        <kwd>availability</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>
        At the present time various intelligent solutions are being actively introduced into
Internet of Things (IoT). It is a paradigm that includes the ubiquitous presence of
various things/objects in the environment that use wireless and wired networks to
transmit data, and a unique addressing scheme allows them to interact with each other
and other things/objects to create new applications/services to achieve certain
purposes [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>IoT consists of a large number of different types of devices connected to network
devices and networks based on various technologies. IoT systems can be affected by a
large number of attacks that adversely affect their proper functioning. Most often,
attacks are implemented with the help of software vulnerabilities of devices connected
to the IoT network and network devices that connect the sensors to the Internet. Also,
the impact of attacks is often directed to servers that act as control devices that store
data collected from sensors, as well as control and monitoring programs. The
occurrence of fails and failures of components of the IoT system can also lead to unstable
and unreliable operation of IoT. Therefore, protecting the security of IoT components
and ensuring their high reliability is a very important task, one of the ways to solve
this is to timely patch the vulnerabilities of IoT components. The paper considers how
the availability of the IoT system, in particular, the smart business center (SBC), is
affected by the installation of patches on the vulnerability of the firewall as a separate
network device and server firewall.</p>
      <p>
        The main features of IoT [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref2">1, 2</xref>
        ]: the interconnection of things (privacy protection,
semantic consistency between physical and related virtual things), dynamic changes
in device states (connected and/or disconnected things, their location and speed,
network scale change with change number of devices).
      </p>
      <p>
        Standards for IoT was proposed for wired also wireless networks, such as: IEEE
802.3 Ethernet, IEEE 802.11Wi-Fi, IEEE 802.15 Bluetooth, IEEE 802.15.4 ZigBee,
Z-Wave, LoRa, 3GPP LTE-A, IEEE 802.16 WiMAX, 2G GSM, 5G [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3 ref4 ref5">3-5</xref>
        ]. IoT
devices require protection of confidentiality, integrity and availability of information [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref2 ref3 ref4 ref5">1-5</xref>
        ].
To ensure the security of the IoT system, can to use [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref11 ref2 ref3 ref4 ref5 ref6 ref7 ref8 ref9">2-11</xref>
        ]: restrict network access
and connectivity; secure logging, secure password management to ensure user
privacy, control and restrict access to the source code of the program (registration
procedures should be supported by selecting, implementing and using appropriate
authentication methods, closing confidential information in the logs, protecting against
various types of attacks); encryption methods; control and protection against physical
unauthorized access, registered and protected system user and
administrative/operational actions, exceptions, errors and events of information security; the
removal of vulnerabilities of hardware and software, and the use of rules to regulate
the installation of software by users; secure networks and network services;
compliance with the security requirements of information systems, including Web
applications and transactions, the use of group access policies. On system components IoT,
such as routers, servers, it is necessary to install special antispyware and antivirus
programs, firewalls.
      </p>
      <p>
        Analysis of attack statistics conducted by NIST and CERT [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12 ref13">12,13</xref>
        ] indicates that
there may be vulnerabilities in IoT systems through which attackers perform DDoS
attacks. Producers of network equipment and servers used in the construction of IoT
systems, after detecting of vulnerability, suggest installing an updated version of the
software on the device firewall, which fixes the identified vulnerabilities.
      </p>
      <p>
        Currently, there are methods of protecting against cyber-attacks, which can also be
used to protect against Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks on components of IoT
systems [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13,14</xref>
        ]: Hybrid DDoS Protection; Detection based on behavior; Creation a
signature in real time; Plan for responding to emergencies in cybersecurity.
      </p>
      <p>When different types of DDoS attacks are impacted, different methods and
mathematical models exist to assess the IoT functioning availability [15-21]. To assess the
reliability and the security of IoT systems, mathematical models are often used:
Markov chains; semi-Markov chains; hidden Markov models; neural networks; Petri nets;
models of the inhomogeneous Poisson process. In this paper, the mathematical
apparatus of Markov chains is applied.
2</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Goal of the Research</title>
      <p>As an object of research, a system based on IoT - a Smart Business Center (SBC) is
used. The availability function (AC) is an indicator that is used to assess reliability
and security. The goal of the paper is the development and investigation of Markov
models of the functioning of SBC subsystems that take into account the different
power modes of the operating systems (OS) of the server and router and the impact of
DDoS attacks on SBC systems with application of the possible patches to the
vulnerabilities of the firewall software and without them.
3</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Markov Models of SBC Subsystems</title>
      <p>The structure of the SBC network includes devices: a router with Ethernet ports, a
softswitch, a firewall, a power network, a server with management software, an IP
camera, sensors, cables [22, 23]. In the OS of the server and the router there are
several power consumption modes of operation [15, 18-21].</p>
      <p>When creating SBC, it is advisable to take into account the security, reliability of
software and hardware subsystems, the choice of energy saving modes [37,38]. The
improved Markov model (Fig. 1) based on the Markov model proposed in [37],
describes the SO states considering reliability of SBC software and hardware, attacks on
the system and the various power consumption modes of the server and the router.
The graph of the Markov model states shown in Fig. 1. This model is an extended in
comparing with the model, given in [22] and have differences from the it as takes into
account corrected transitions to the states of power consumption modes of the server
and the router (from state 2 to 3, 4, 5 and from state 14 to 13, 15, 16). Timely
installation of a patch on the firewall software vulnerabilities can reduce or stop the impact of
DDoS attacks, which primarily impact the server firewall, router and firewall (as a
separate network device) SBC. Figures 2-4 shows the restructured Markov models of
SBC states when patches are installed on the firewall software vulnerabilities of the
router, server, SBC firewall. The proposed improved Markov model (Fig. 1), in
contrast to the model given in [22], takes into account the change in the SO states and the
transitions from the state to state when the patch was installed on the server firewall
(state 9), on the router firewall (state 14), on the firewall of the SO (state 10).</p>
      <p>
        For the developed model, the following assumptions were chosen [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13, 14</xref>
        ]:
 the flow of failures that occurs in the SBC system is a process without aftereffects,
each time in the future the system's behavior depends only on the state of the
system at this time and does not depend on how the system has passed to this state.
The flow of failures and failures of both software and hardware is the simplest and
obeys the law of exponential distribution. The failures flow in the SBC system has
the Markov property;
 the structure of the network include the reservation of the server and router, time of
transition to the reserve in the event of a failure of the main device is minimal;
 the number of DDoS attacks and the number of primary defects in the software are
constant;
 the monitoring and diagnostics tools are in good working order and determine the
technical state of the system with a high degree of authenticity.
      </p>
      <p>Figures 2-4 shows Markov models with a rebuilt structure that change the
number of transitions on the graph in case the patch is installed either on the firewall or
on the server firewall.</p>
      <p>For each rebuilt model (different options for patching or lack of patching on the
vulnerability of firewalls), the system of differential linear Kolmogorov-Chapman
equations was presented and researched, the AC value calculated and analyzed if
normalization conditions:
∑i2=21 Pi(t) = 1; P1(0) = 1.
(1)</p>
      <p>The AC is an important indicator of the reliability of SBC when exposed to various
types of DDoS attacks, so AC was chosen as the SBC availability indicator, which is
defined as the sum of the probabilities of the system staying in well-operating states.
AC=P1(t)+P2(t)+P3(t)+P4(t)+P5(t)+P12(t)+P13(t)+P15(t)+P16(t)+P21(t).
(2)
Pi(t) – probabilities of SBC components states.</p>
      <p>
        The notation for the transition rates in Fig. 2-4 correspond to the notations adopted
in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13</xref>
        ]. In Fig. 2-4 shown the Markov model of subsystems SBC states when
installing patches on the software: the server firewall (Fig. 2); firewall as a separate
network device (Fig. 3) and the firewall of the server and the router (Fig. 4).
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Simulation Results</title>
      <p>Basing on the analysis of statistical data, an indicator of the AC can be found. The
graphical dependencies of the system AC on the transition rates to different states
(ij - failure rates, αij - attack rates, ij - transition rates in different modes power
consumption of the router and server, where i = 1...22, j = 1...22) have been received
for the various technical states of the SBC components shown in Fig. 5-10.</p>
      <p>The analysis of the IoT - SBC system availability was performed taking into
account component reliability, recovery rates and various power modes of the server
and router, DDoS attacks on the router and server, and removal of vulnerabilities in
the firewall software.</p>
      <p>In the values of failure rates, factors influencing the reliability of the IoT
subsystems during operation (climatic factors, load, vibrations) are taken into account. Initial
data for the calculation of AC, the values of which are based on the analysis of
statistical data, are: 1317=5,710-4 1/h; 1517=110-5 1/h; 1617=110-6 1/h;
218=1105 1/h; 318=110-5 1/h; 1320=110-6 1/h; 1520=110-6 1/h; 2017=1,1410-3 1/h;
120=110-6 1/h; µ67=60 1/h; µ141=0,125 1/h; µ111=0,5 1/h; µ32=40 1/h;
µ42=30 1/h; µ52=30 1/h; µ1513=50 1/h; µ1613=60 1/h; µ71=0,02 1/h; µ87=2 1/h;
µ81=30 1/h; µ101=1 1/h; µ121=5 1/h; µ181=1 1/h; µ191=0,02 1/h; µ91=1 1/h;
µ171=1 1/h; µ188=60 1/h; µ61=0,02 1/h; µ2021=60 1/h; µ221=20 1/h; µ211=30 1/h;
µ1722=60 1/h; µ201=40 1/h; µ2113= 20 1/h.</p>
      <p>The graphical dependencies (Figures 5-10) shows the change in the AC values
from the change in the transition rates from one state to another in the Markov models
with fixes for software vulnerabilities: the server firewall (AC 9); firewall (AC 10);
the firewall of the server and the router (AC 9_14) and without patches (AC).
Fig. 6. Graphics of AC SBC dependence on the transition rate 26 from active-power state of
the server 2 to a state of the server failure 6 for models with patches on vulnerabilities of: server
firewall (AC 9) and router firewall (AC 14) and without patches (AC) if 26 change values in
range 0...110-5 1/h
Fig. 8. Graphics of AC SBC dependence on the transition rate 1317 from active-power state
of the router 13 to a state of the router failure 17 for models with and without patches on
firewall if 1317 change values in range 0...110-3 1/h</p>
      <p>At the software maintenance stage, vulnerabilities can be detected in it, and the
manufacturer suggests fixing the patches. If patches on firewall software
vulnerabilities are installed, the impact of attacks on the SBC firewall, server or router stops, and
the proposed model (Figure 1) is rebuilt (Figures 2-4). When DDoS attacks affect the
SBC server and router, the power consumption of these devices increases, because
they can’t switch to a low-power mode, because they constantly process requests for
data transmission and processing.</p>
      <p>Figure 5 shows the graph of AC SBC from 26 - the transition rate from a
goodworking state in the active mode (2) to the server failure state (6) without patches in
the attack conditions (AC) and patches on vulnerabilities of the firewall software of
the router (14), router and server simultaneously (9 and 14), server (9), firewall at
SBC (10) input. As can be seen from the figure, with increasing 26, installing a
patch on the firewall software of the server at 26 = 110-3 1/hour gives the value of
AC = 0.99997 and slightly affecting the availability of the system, since with the
selected source data it differs from the system's AC without patches on 10-9. At the
same time, when the patches are installed on the vulnerabilities of the firewall
software, the firewall server and the router, the firewall of the router (states 10, 9_14, 14)
the system readiness is increased and at 26 = 110-3 1/h is AC = 0.999925. On Fig. 6
shown the graph of AC dependency, taking into account patching, on the vulnerability
of the firewall software, the server firewall and the router, the router's firewall with a
higher sampling rate than Fig. 5. Analysis of graphs (Fig. 5, Fig. 6) showed that the
greatest increase in AC occurs when patching the vulnerabilities of the router and the
server simultaneously (9_14) or the vulnerabilities of the entire system's firewall (10).</p>
      <p>The research data are valid for a given set of input data, which must be periodically
refined.</p>
      <p>The developed models allow to take into account the change in the transition rates
from one state to another state under attack conditions and the installation of patches
for various vulnerabilities (Fig. 7-10). The calculations took into account the average
statistical data from several sources [24,25] - the critical number of data packets for
DDoS attacks, which leads to possible fails and failures of various SBC devices or
failure of the entire system. The beginning of the attack can’t always be determined.
An indirect sign of the beginning of the attack can serve as an increase in the requests
flow to a critical level. Under the influence of an attack, an increase in the transitions
rates from one state to another leads to a decrease in the value of AC. After installing
the patch, when the critical level of the transitions rates is reached, AC increases.
According to the average statistical data, critical values were adopted for the rates of
transitions under attack conditions: 36≤110-4 1/h, 26≤1.210-3 1/h, 1317≤510-4
1/h, 1517≤110-5 1/h. When specifying conditions for determining attacks based on
later statistics and installing patches, can get updated graphs of the AC dependence on
the system transitions rates from one state to another.</p>
      <p>The graphical dependences shown in Fig. 7-10, reflect the change in the value of
AC, when the transition rates 26, 1517, 36 change values in the range 0...210-4
1/h in two cases: when the model does not take into account the installation of a patch
on the vulnerabilities of the firewall software and when in the model it is considered
that fixing the vulnerabilities of the firewall software will be immediately as soon as
the attack shows itself. The use of patches on software vulnerabilities of devices after
detection of the attack process immediately significantly increases the value of AC
SBC: AC (26) to about 0.9999925, AC (1317) to about 0.99997, AC (1517) to
about 0.99999, AC (36) to about 0.99990.
5</p>
      <p>Сonclusions and the Future Work
The research showed that the IoT system, even with the required high AC value, is
highly dependent on the correct failure-free operation of the firewalls.</p>
      <p>Analysis of the graphical dependencies obtained for the developed models, taking
into account the rearrangement in case of appearance and installation of the patch on
the vulnerability of the firewall software, showed that AC SBC is most sensitive to
patching the firewall software of the router and the network firewall. When the patch
is set, the AC remains high (0.9999925), even with a transition rate to a failure state
of 0.001 1/h.</p>
      <p>The hypothesis is confirmed that the establishment of the patch significantly
increases the AC value even at clearly high values of the transition rates to the failure
state.</p>
      <p>Further research can be aimed at clarifying the time of attacks on SBC
components, so that the firewall software vulnerabilities is closed by the patch in a timely
manner to prevent the failure of SBC components.</p>
      <p>The practical importance of the results allows to assess the SBC availability and to
develop recommendations to reduce the vulnerability of its software from the impact
of DDoS attacks, as well as reduce its power consumption.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Acknowledgements</title>
      <p>This research is supported by the STARC project ("Methodology of sustainable
development technologies and information technologies for green computing and
communications"), funded by the Department of Education and Science of Ukraine. In
addition, the authors, thanks to the colleagues in the Erasmus + ALIOT project
(573818-EPP-1-2016-1-UK-EPPKA2-CBHE-JP) for discussion during the
development of MSc and courses PhD, dedicated to the research and evaluation of the
reliability and security of IoT systems.
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