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  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>Proceedings of the SQAMIA</journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn pub-type="ppub">1613-0073</issn>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Risk Analysis Tools for Managing Software Projects</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>NEVENA RANKOVIĆ</string-name>
          <email>nevenar@dmi.uns.ac.rs</email>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>University of Novi Sad MIRJANA IVANOVIĆ</string-name>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>University of Novi Sad</string-name>
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date>
        <year>2018</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>7</volume>
      <fpage>27</fpage>
      <lpage>30</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>Risk analysis is a stage in the process of managing software projects, which largely affects the success of the project. It represents a complex and demanding process of planning, identification, analysis, response planning risks, monitoring, control, and reporting. Every software project, regardless of size, structure and project team is exposed to various types of risks. Risks can occur in the environment, but we have to accept the fact that they can not be completely eliminated. It is necessary to focus a lot of activities on risk reduction. The two most important features for improving the risk analysis process are: engaging professional resources, procurement and use of adequate software tools for risk analysis and management. This paper presents the results of comparative analysis of the 4 types of different risk management tools. We also proposed some specific measures for the selection and choice of the most appropriate of them in accordance with the requirements and needs of the user. Obtained results can help, not highly experienced software project managers, to select good risk management tool for leading their small and medium size software projects.</p>
      </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1. INTRODUCTION</title>
      <p>
        The beginnings of risk analysis are related to the manual calculation of the necessary statistical
data, forecasting, assessing and making numerous statements that required a lot of time and
resources [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">DeMarco and Lister 2003</xref>
        ]. Earlier, when appropriate tools are not used, a large
proportion of the projects had been unsuccessful. The significance of risk management is gaining in
importance rapid development of information technology, identification of project managers and
software companies [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">Cooper et al. 2005</xref>
        ]. The process of risk management is not sufficient and is not
the only indicator of success, it is necessary to improve other elements and factors involved in
software development. Introduction and use of software tools [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">Bajwa et al. 2008</xref>
        ] facilitates the entire
process and provide growing opportunities for analysis and risk management, and therefore the
success rate of software projects is gradually increasing.
      </p>
      <p>
        The aim of this work is to select some of currently available tools for risk analysis and
management and compare their key functionalities. Further the idea is to identify key measures
needed for the practical use of such tools, apply them on the selected tools and bring out conclusions
and lessons learned that can help inexperienced, young project managers to select appropriate tools
for their small and medium software projects [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">Demek et al. 2018</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        In fact in the next section we review some of currently available tools, their basic characteristics,
advantages and disadvantages based on which we make a selection of 4 distinctive tools [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">Bjelica
2017</xref>
        ]. Additionally we present some key aspects of related work. In the third section of the paper we
show details of analyzed important functionality of selected tools in two particular cases: two
selected examples of software projects [Spenser 2008]. Fourth section presents performed analysis of
tools in case of the selected examples and offers systematic discussion [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">Jones and Gallo 2007</xref>
        ]. The
fifth section brings concluding observations of performed analysis and the proposed measures
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">Carter et al. 2017</xref>
        ] so that users have reliable cues when choosing and purchasing the right
equipment.
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>2. RISK MANAGEMENT TOOLS ANALYSIS AND RELATED WORK</title>
      <p>Our main motivation within our research activities was to select the tools for different purposes from
the currently available and accessible tools for risk analysis in managing software projects. Through
comparing their main characteristics and functionality (using two selected medium size projects as
case studies) we would like to discover some of their key advantages and disadvantages. The need for
such analysis is evident in order to select the appropriate tools to enable optimal performance for not
highly experienced managers that lead some software projects. All components of risk that are
characteristic of the management of software projects will be analyzed in the two concrete examples
of projects. The results of comparative analysis will be presented later in the paper.</p>
      <p>
        A software tool for project management is software that allows user to track the project from the
beginning to the end [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">Peric 2012</xref>
        ]. It provides continuously information on distribution of resources,
assign tasks, flow of documentation, financial management, time and quality of the project [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref21">Udovicic
and Kadlec 2013</xref>
        ]. Tools for managing risks of software projects reduce the effects of surprises that
make quick changes and emerging situations [Milentijevic and Zivkovic]. The main advantage of
using such tools as accurate instruments is reducing the possibility of errors in an efficient and
reliable way. Furthermore in order to identify possible risks it is necessary to be able to fast and
adequately react when risks appeared. Software development process inevitably contains elements of
uncertainty, defined as risks [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">Carter et al. 2017</xref>
        ]. Successful completion of the project depends
predominantly on the size of the risk corresponding to the project activity. In order to develop the
activity in an appropriate manner, it is necessary to use a variety of technologically advanced tools,
which require a certain level of knowledge for their use. Successful use of risk management tools is
connected to defined phases such as: the identification, assessment, evaluation, control, reporting
and management of all potentially major risks [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17">Pijuk 2016</xref>
        ]. Selected tool for risk management
should enable the understanding, support and ways to mitigate risks that may jeopardize the
success of the project. For software projects that have adequate time and cost constraints, it is
necessary to invest adequate efforts in software development in which the process of risk mitigation
is considered a central activity of management [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref20">Taylor 2004</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        The goal of developers of the most risk management tools (to support software project
management) is to implement them to be unique in terms of new features, greater efficiency and
progress in the implementation of successful management and risk analysis [Pandian, 2007]. But
some characteristics are considered to be included in every tool for risk management: continuous
assessment of each risk and its way of dealing with the project, risk prioritization and
implementation strategies for successful resolution of all software project risk [Brooks 1995].
Examples of the most commonly used tools for managing and risk analysis within software
development are listed below [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15">Ogunsanmi et al. 2011</xref>
        ]:
 Risk Management Software by Resolver (see link 1.)
 Optial SmartStart by OptialTM (see link 2.)
 ProcessGene GRC Software Suite by ProcessGene (see link 3.)
 MasterControl Risk Analysis by MasterControl (see link 4.)
 A1 Tracker by A1 Enterprise (see link 5.)
 Checkit by Certainty Software (see link 6.)
 IsoMetrix by Metrix Software Solutions (see link 7.)
 Isolocity by Isolocity (see link 8.)
 Active Risk Manager by Sword Active Risk (see link 9.)
 Primavera Risk Analysis by ORACLE (see link 10.)
• 16:3
 RiskyProject Professional by Intaver (see link 11.)
 Full Monte 2016 by Barbecana (see link 12.)
 @RISK by Palisade (see link 13.)
 Project Risk Analysis by Katmar Software (see link 14.)
 Practical Threat Analysis by PTA Technologies (see link 15.)
 IT Risk Management Software by RISK VISION (see link 16.)
      </p>
      <p>and lot of others (see link 17.).</p>
      <p>
        However each tool has its own advantages and disadvantages, and a special mode, which in the
best and most appropriate approach shows the quality of managing risks within some particular
software projects [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15">Ogunsanmi et al. 2011</xref>
        ]. Depending on the type of organization and the way it
seeks to manage the risks different tools for risk management have to be assessed and finally the
better one to be selected. For certain organizations particular operating mode of one tool may be
useless, while on the other hand for another organization this simplicity of operation and display of
basic statistical report are exactly what they need. Accordingly as a first step, it is necessary to
determine the needs of the organization or team that will manage risks, then specify a group of tools
that meet these requirements, and finally choose the appropriate one after performing adequate
analysis of tools functionalities [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref18">Smith and Merrit 2002</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>Generally speaking, still it is not easy to find a lot of researcher papers that explicitly compare
essential functionalities of different risk management tools for software project management
purposes. There are a lot of web sites (like: https://www.softwareadvice.com/risk-management/,
https://www.getapp.com/finance-accounting-software/risk-management/, https://www.g2crowd.com/
categories/governance-risk-compliance) which offer some kind of systematization of wide range of
risk management tools but for wide range of different domains and purposes. They present usually
long lists of various risk management tools and offer wide range of their general characteristics like,
Rating of some stakeholders, Price, Platforms that support software, Deployment, appropriateness to
different Business Size and so on. However they do not offer the clear comparison between them,
between their functionalities and especially for specific purposes for software development. Indeed,
much work has been done around the field of software development methodologies but the literature
lacks such studies that conduct the comparative analysis in terms of risk management.</p>
      <p>
        On the other hand there are some other studies like [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">Hijazi et al. 2012</xref>
        ] that try to investigate the
state of risk and risk management in the most popular software development process models (i.e.
waterfall, v-model, incremental development, spiral, and agile development). They are also highly
concentrated on risks but within specific software development process models and give no deeper
comparison of different risk management tools.
      </p>
      <p>
        The third group of research papers on risk management is oriented toward use of specific
algorithms and techniques (recently more and more from Artificial Intelligence area) and also does
not offer comparison of key functionalities of different risk management tools. Characteristic
representative of such research direction is presented in the paper [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">Elzamly and Hussin 2014</xref>
        ] where
authors propose new mining techniques by which they can study the impact of different risk
management techniques and different software risk factors on software analysis development
projects. They used the fuzzy multiple regression analysis techniques with fuzzy concepts to manage
the software risks in a software project and mitigating risk with software process improvement.
      </p>
      <p>Having in mind abovementioned diversity of research and available literature on risk analysis
and risk management tools our main intention was different. Our essential idea was to find easy way
to help newcomers and not highly experienced managers in software project development and
management to use some of “easy manageable” risk management tools. The intention was to help
them to decide what tool to select for that purpose having in mind basic but essential functionalities
and characteristics of such tools.</p>
      <p>To achieve this goal we considered number of different risk management tools suggested by high
number of experts. Based on their opinion we selected several appropriate tools which seems the
most useful and with adequate functionalities for not highly experienced project managers.
Thus it is the main difference between our approach and approach of other researchers.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>3. ANALYSIS OF SELECTED TOOLS</title>
      <p>By examining the various functionalities of risk management tools (their complexity, applicability,
reliability, price, implementation, compatibility with existing software projects, ease of use and
similar) the organization and software project manager can, depending on the purpose and user
requirements, to identify the most appropriate tool.</p>
      <p>The findings presented in the paper and selected and analyzed tools are based on research
activities conducted in the research center Petnica in Serbia during November and December 2017.
The research included 56 participants/teachers of informatics in Petnica, who used the tools for risk
analysis of small and medium scale software projects. The following results from the research
activities were obtained and adequate and most appropriate tools are selected (Table I and Table II):
Based on the available requirement specification, the user chooses a specific group of tools for
analyzing and eliminating risks that can meet the demands of his/her company. The conducted
abovementioned research and experiences of the previous users have motivated us for the selection
of 4 tools and further analyzing their properties.</p>
      <p>The first two selected tools, RiskyProject Professional 7 and Full Monte 2016, are more suitable
for medium scale software projects. They will show the essential functionalities to which attention
should be paid when choosing an appropriate tool.</p>
      <p>Two other selected tools, Practical Threat Analysis and Risk Analysis Project, are tools that can
be used independently as an auxiliary tool for efficient analysis of the most common parts of the
project where risks may arise. To illustrate real-life process of assessment of several
available/selected tools for risk management we performed following rather simple experiment: First
step was to select four tools, Second step was oriented towards assessment of functionalities of
selected tools. To perform the last task we also selected the two examples of software projects that
can be seen as medium size projects. For our experiment following risk management tools have been
selected: RiskyProject 7 is a complex and comprehensive software with greater opportunities for risk
management than Full Monte, as it offers much more functionality such as risk identification, risk
planning, risk assessment, risk response, monitoring and controlling risks and adequate reporting.
Full Monte, on the other hand is more focused only on identifying and analyzing risk without
planning and response to risks (to offer appropriate form of a report).</p>
      <p>It may be noted that the significant lack of both tools is inability to export reports in a
transparent Word or Excel documents, with which is easier and more manageable to inform
• 16:5
organizations and end users. From the perspective of the user, RiskyProject gives the appropriate
support and services, to the user and customer, and rather easy way to work with it. If we consider
that the tool RiskyProject 7 is cheaper than Full Monte, we come to the conclusion that users may
better take advantages of RiskyProject 7 and accordingly it is more recommendable.</p>
      <p>Also from the users’ point of view, RiskyProject gives the appropriate user manual and better
customer service. If the organization is committed to risk analysis and obtaining reports in the
allocation of resources and distribution of the same in the context of the development of a software
project, it is far more efficient to use a specialized tools for this purpose, such as Practical Threat
Analysis (PTA). In the case of PTA tool, it is possible to quickly and efficiently identify, mitigate or
eliminate certain risks relating to resources within the project. If it is necessary in a short period of
time to analyze one stage in the development of software product and thereby examine the possible
risks of expected or unexpected costs, it is preferable to use tools specialized for this purpose, such as
Project Risk Analysis.</p>
      <p>Based on results of the analysis of all four selected tool, it can be conclude the following:
(1) RiskyProject Professional 7 is a tool intended for projects of medium and large scale. It contains
all the features and necessary components for a complete and detailed analysis of the risks and all
activities related to the risks of the project.
(2) Full Monte 2016 is a tool suitable for medium scale projects. The main its’ lack is the
impossibility of entering the response strategy of the risks in order to make adequate plans mitigate
the potential risks of the project.
(3) Practical Threat Analysis is a tool that is suitable for risk analysis when allocating the resources
needed to develop the project. It has the ability to define strategies of risk response and is suitable
for rapid and brief analysis of parts of the project.
(4) Project Risk Analysis is a simple tool to analyze the cost of any phase of a software project.</p>
      <p>The general goal of these software tools is to increase efficiency to the development cycle of the
project and to be available to all team members, so they can be more involved in the project.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>4. DISCUSSION OF THE RESULTS</title>
      <p>Two examples of selected medium scale software projects are completely prepared and realized using
Microsoft Project tool. The first example is a general project called "OPRS" – organization of seminar.
It was chosen as a good representative of general standard of most commonly used model of project
development. It includes 10 elementary stages during the software life cycle with 75 activities,
anticipated duration of 77 days and the indicative cost of one million RSD (Serbian currency). Eleven
resources are assigned to the project, divided into two types (cost and work). For the purpose of
comparative analysis was selected another similar case i.e. particular project example we will call it
"Seminar organization for teachers - Petnica". It was also the project on seminar organization but for
teachers in particular institution i.e. small research center in Serbian city Petnica. This project has 9
elementary phase with 55 activities, duration of 63 days and provided a budget of 685 000.00 RSD.
In the total 33 resources have been allocated in this project, divided into two types (work and
material).</p>
      <p>After a detailed analysis of all the functionality of the first tool, RiskyProject Professional 7, in
the first case of software project "OPRS", it has been obtained a final summary with all the uncertain
parameters and the three most critical risks (Figure 1).</p>
      <p>After a detailed analysis of all the functionality of the second selected tool Full Monte 2016, in the
second example of the software project "Seminar organization for teachers - Petnica ", the "Tornado"
diagram is obtained. This diagram generates the display of critical parts of the path and emphasizes
the potential risks. Tabular view shows the following fields of interest: the remaining time duration
of the task, the critical percentage of the task, the task-sensitive percent, and the sensitivity index
with a small visual diagram, worst case and best case, end of the project with a small visual diagram
(Figure 2).</p>
      <p>Third chosen tool Practical Threat Analysis is simple and has fewer features, designed for the
analysis of the risk of a single phase of a software project, which is very important if it is necessary
to quickly, efficiently and reliably analyze only the critical stages in the software project. It was
chosen because of its simplicity of operations. Using tool PTA (Practical Threat Analysis) resources
and risks that may occur during the development of software project seminar for teachers in Petnica
are presented. This tool provides the ability to generate reports on self-assessment of performance
completion phase of the project, after analyzing all the risks, resources and strategies for the project
(Figure 3).</p>
      <p>Fourth chosen tool Project Risk Analysis can be used exclusively for risk analysis of costs at
any stage of a software project, which in turn allows the user to speed up and improve efficiency in
their work. In this tool is presented one stage with six activities in the development of general
software project "OPRS" phase "Design software project". The Project Risk Analysis tool can present
the cumulative probability of the cost of the selected phase of the project presented at the selected
interval of confidence (1% or 5%). The lowest costs at a confidence level of 1% in the aforementioned
case, the same as the lowest costs at a confidence level of 5%. If we continue to look at the value, it
can be concluded that increasing the confidence interval increases the costs as well (Figure 4).</p>
      <p>The most important advantage of these tools is that allows to an individual person or to whole
project team to collect and process data, search, monitor and update them.</p>
      <p>Finally after processing these two selected examples in four tools for risk management we are
able to propose some significant key parameters i.e. measures to be considered when somebody
would like to assess several risk management tools and select appropriate one. Proposed measures
are illustrated in case of tools we selected and applied in our two chosen examples.</p>
      <p>Advantages and disadvantages of assessed tools for medium scale software projects and for small
scale software projects are presented in Table III and Table IV, respectively.</p>
      <p>Tables show some of the tested functionality of represented tools. The complexity, applicability
and reliability are high in case of RiskyProject Professional 7, while for the Full Monte 2016 they are
medium. Practical Threat Analysis and Project Risk Analysis have low complexity, applicability very
low, and reliability is high. Prices of procurement tools are high for the Full Monte in 2016, and in
Risky Project Professional 7 they are medium, whereas in Practical Threat Analysis and Project Risk
Analysis they are low. Implementation and price of above tools influence the selection and
procurement of tools for risk analysis in developing countries such as Serbia. The table can be
analyzed on the basis of elements that supports risk analysis, so Full Monte 2016, has no strategy
response to the risks, while Practical Threat Analysis though is a tool designed for the analysis of
one phase of the software project includes a plan and a strategy to risks.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>5. CONCLUSION</title>
      <p>
        The use of software tools facilitates the entire process and gives new opportunities for analysis and
risk management, and therefore the success rate of software projects is steadily growing [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">Latkovic
2002</xref>
        ]. Nowadays, use of tools for administration and the risk analysis are standards for all
participants in the development of software products. Tools cost, but they ultimately yield results
which are of greater importance than the actual costs of their purchases. The purpose of risk
management is the introduction of effective control, prior to the limits established by the scope and
responsibilities to achieve the appropriate level of security that will set goals to be accomplished.
Successful risk management can provide [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">Carter et al. 2017</xref>
        ]: better decision making, increase
business efficiency, better forecasting and optimization of available resources, strengthening
confidence in the organizational system, the development of good organizational culture.
      </p>
      <p>
        The success of software companies today largely depends on the investment opportunities in
quality management tools and risk analysis. Better and more efficient software are more capable of
detecting, identifying, analyzing, reducing or eliminating the risks, and consequently the
uncertainties the outcome of the entire project [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">Anshi et al. 2008</xref>
        ]. Presented tools offer different
opportunities to organizations and software project managers, in accordance to the size and costs of
the project, and to the users to select similar tools according to their needs. By using appropriate risk
analysis in the context of the appropriate tools, it is possible to direct the lower cost of the realization
of a software project in the successful direction [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">Carter et al. 2017</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        Analysis presented in this paper, can help smaller companies and not highly experienced software
project managers, which have not yet begun to use these tools to analyze risks in their software
projects to look at the basic and initial functionalities which are necessary to find and selected
adequate tool for risk analysis [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">Milin et al. 2018</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>Presented steps and lessons learned from assessment and evaluation of four risk management
tools could be also used as a good and illustrative case study within a course on “Software project
management” (such course is part of curriculum at our Faculty). It would illustrate to students the
importance of risk management tools and their use during software project realization. Also they
would learn what are necessary procedures and the selection of the essential characteristics that
such tools should have.</p>
    </sec>
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