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    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Argumentation for Explainable Reasoning with Conflicting Medical Recommendations</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Kristijonas Cˇ yras, Brendan Delaney,</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Martin Chapman, Jesu´ s Dom´ınguez,</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Denys Prociuk, Francesca Toni, Imperial College London</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>London</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="UK">UK</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>Vasa Curcin, King's College London</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>London</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="UK">UK</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>Designing a treatment path for a patient suffering from multiple conditions involves merging and applying multiple clinical guidelines and is recognised as a difficult task. This is especially relevant in the treatment of patients with multiple chronic diseases, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, because of the high risk of any treatment change having potentially lethal exacerbations. Clinical guidelines are typically designed to assist a clinician in treating a single condition with no general method for integrating them. Additionally, guidelines for different conditions may contain mutually conflicting recommendations with certain actions potentially leading to adverse effects. Finally, individual patient preferences need to be respected when making decisions. In this work we present a description of an integrated framework and a system to execute conflicting clinical guideline recommendations by taking into account patient specific information and preferences of various parties. Overall, our framework combines a patient's electronic health record data with clinical guideline representation to obtain personalised recommendations, uses computational argumentation techniques to resolve conflicts among recommendations while respecting preferences of various parties involved, if any, and yields conflict-free recommendations that are inspectable and explainable. The system implementing our framework will allow for continuous learning by taking feedback from the decision makers and integrating it within its pipeline.</p>
      </abstract>
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  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>
        The Learning Health System (LHS), as defined by the US
Institute of Medicine is a term that describes a
systemwide approach to research and knowledge translation based
on the exploitation of routinely collected data
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref20 ref21">(McGinnis,
2010; McGinnis, Powers, and Grossmann, 2011)</xref>
        . LHS is a
part of a growing field of ‘learning systems’ where
knowledge acquisition and process improvement become at least
semi-automated tasks of the human-cyber-social
infrastructure
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">(Friedman et al., 2015)</xref>
        . A number of projects and
developments have made such a LHS in diagnostic and treatment
decision support within reach, e.g.
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">(Delaney et al., 2015)</xref>
        has
built a prototype decision support system, integrated in UK
primary care and shown a statistically significant
improvement in diagnostic accuracy
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17">(Kostopoulou et al., 2017)</xref>
        .
      </p>
      <p>One significant component of any LHS is medical
decision making and the possibilities of giving it automated
support. In practice, medical decision making is often supported
by clinical guidelines. These are lengthy documents
summarising state-of-the-art knowledge about a medical
condition and specifically its management. Clinical guidelines
provide best practice recommendations to clinicians for
taking care of patients under broad circumstances, mostly in
the context of a single condition or a disease. Guidelines
describe management of a generic patient, recommending
multiple possible options for a clinician to opt for, depending on
the specific circumstances. Such specific circumstances
influencing the decision may amount not only to
particularities regarding the disease in question, but also the presence
of other diseases, i.e. the so called multimorbidity setting.</p>
      <p>
        Multimorbidity (or comorbidity) is especially relevant in
the context of chronic diseases, such as diabetes, asthma,
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic
kidney disease (CKD), to name a few. They are in some
combination very often present for continuous periods of
time, usually until death, especially in elderly patients.
Furthermore, chronic diseases very often interact with each
other in that managing one has positive and/or negatives
effects on the others
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref13">(Grace et al., 2013; Fraccaro et al., 2015)</xref>
        .
In particular, whereas certain clinical guideline
recommendations are applicable for managing a given chronic disease
in general, they are no longer such in the presence of other
chronic diseases. What is more, due to the complexity of
interactions, clinical guidelines that cover multimorbidities
hardly ever exist. Thus, when managing multiple health
conditions, different guidelines need to be considered.
      </p>
      <p>
        Considering multiple guidelines very likely entails the
existence of interacting recommendations: the
recommendations may be inapplicable, may suggest incompatible actions
or imply conflicting effects, may overlap, and so forth. A
clinician may find it very difficult to follow the best
practices should they stem from conflicting assumptions and/or
lead to negative effects with respect to one or another
condition. In order to facilitate the clinician’s job, knowledge
representation methods are useful in representing clinical
guidelines and their interactions. However, whereas models
for representing guidelines abound, see e.g.
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref23">(Peleg, 2013)</xref>
        for an overview, few of them allow for capturing
interactions among guideline recommendations. One
state-of-theart model that does have the latter feature is the
Transitionbased Medical Recommendation model (TMR) with the
most recent exposition given by
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref29">Zamborlini et al. (2017)</xref>
        .
      </p>
      <p>
        TMR allows for representing and merging multiple
guidelines while taking into account their interactions. In the
context of multimorbidities especially, TMR is very useful for
identifying components and relations, such as clinical care
actions, their positive and negative effects with respect to
various conditions, as well as various measures of the
quality of evidence and obligatoriness of recommendations. To
capture interactions when merging guidelines,
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref29">Zamborlini
et al. (2017)</xref>
        advance a method to identify relationships
among multiple recommendations, such as contradictions,
side-effects, alternatives. The interactions are also
accompanied with a measure of the degree of certainty that an
interaction will happen. Therefore, TMR offers a detailed
and comprehensive template for representing clinical
guideline recommendations and their interactions. However, as
TMR concerns generic recommendations, it does not afford
a method for representing patient specific information. As
a consequence of this, TMR does not possess a reasoning
mechanism that would allow to determine the most
applicable recommendations for a given patient.
      </p>
      <p>
        Automated reasoning with clinical guideline
representations and patient information, especially in the presence of
guideline interactions, is an open problem in general
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref23">(Peleg,
2013; Fraccaro et al., 2015)</xref>
        . A further complication
regarding reasoning with guideline recommendations and patient
specific information is the need to take into account
preferences of various parties involved – such as the patient,
clinician and health care institution, see e.g.
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref23 ref28">(Peleg, 2013; Wilk et
al., 2017)</xref>
        for discussions. In this work we propose to apply
an argumentation-based method for reasoning with clinical
guidelines, patient information and various preferences.
      </p>
      <p>
        Generally speaking, argumentation is a branch of
knowledge representation and reasoning concerned with reasoning
with partial and conflicting information in a way that aims
to emulate human reasoning. In medical reasoning
particularly, “argumentation is appealing as it allows for important
conflicts to be highlighted and analysed and unimportant
conflicts to be suppressed.”
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">(Atkinson et al., 2017)</xref>
        Structured argumentation formalisms—see e.g.
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">(Besnard et al.,
2014)</xref>
        —in particular provide ways to comprehensively
represent information for reasoning medical knowledge via
arguable elements and rules, see e.g.
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15 ref26">(Tolchinsky et al., 2006;
Hunter and Williams, 2012)</xref>
        . As such, argumentation
formalisms are interpretable and naturally afford explainable
reasoning methods. Assumption-Based Argumentation with
Preferences (ABA+)
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5 ref6">(Bondarenko et al., 1997; Cˇ yras and
Toni, 2016)</xref>
        is one established structured argumentation
formalism that also deals with preference information. We
propose to use ABA+ for automating reasoning with
conflicting guideline recommendations, patient specific information
and preferences.
      </p>
      <p>To enable this, we map TMR to the ABA+ representation
based on rules and arguable elements, called assumptions.
This framework is instantiated using information extracted
from computation representations of guidelines held in
software that realises TMR. We also augment the
representation in ABA+ with patient specific conditions obtained from
their electronic health record (EHR). This information
allows us to construct arguments (as rule-based deductions)
for actions based on recommendations. We also allow for
the representation of preferences over assumptions, which
influence how arguments and counterarguments interact (in
argumentation jargon, attack each other). We then employ
extension-based argumentation semantics to execute the
reasoning and obtain the acceptable assumptions as well as
arguments and conclusions. The reasoning outcomes are
explainable through inspection of the explicitly given
assumptions, rules, preferences as well as the resulting arguments
and their relationships.</p>
      <p>To illustrate our methodology, we focus on the interaction
of conflicting recommendations. As an example, we
consider an artificial case study of COPD, vetted by COPD
experts. In the use case, a clinician deals with a patient that
presents COPD and a mild Angina. The relevant clinical
guidelines recommend several actions to take or avoid. We
complement the recommendations with patient information
from EHR and illustrate reasoning with and without
preferences. We briefly discuss why the reasoning outcomes
provided by ABA+ are interpretable and explainable, and also
discuss how the clinician can interact with a decision support
system encompassing the ABA+-driven reasoning engine.</p>
      <p>This paper presents work in progress. Several parts of our
LHS are in place, others are being researched and
implemented. With this paper we aim to give a flavour of various
parts and how they can come together to support an LHS.</p>
      <p>The paper is structured thus. In Section 2 we give
preliminaries about the TMR model, its implementation and
integration with EHR data, as well as background on ABA+.
In Section 3 we advance a method for automated reasoning
with guideline recommendations and patient information in
ABA+. We illustrate our approach with a COPD use case
in Section 4. We discuss related work in Section 5 and
conclude in Section 6.</p>
      <p>2</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Preliminaries</title>
      <p>2.1</p>
      <sec id="sec-2-1">
        <title>Transition-based Medical Recommendation (TMR) Model</title>
        <p>
          In this section we review the Transition-based Medical
Recommendation model (TMR) together with clinical guideline
recommendation interaction description as a knowledge
representation model. As in
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref29">(Zamborlini et al., 2017)</xref>
          ,
without loss of generality we assume that a set of guidelines
is merged into a single guideline. We can thus assume that
recommendations are delivered by the same larger guideline
and avoid the need to refer to various guidelines.
        </p>
        <p>Figure 1 depicts an instance of a graphical schema for
representing recommendations in TMR. It consists of the
following components.</p>
        <p>Unique name at the top of a rounded box. For instance,
R1, R2. (We write Rk instead of Rk.)
Henceforth, we refer to a recommendation by its name.
Associated action A within the ellipse at the top. For
instance, Adm. NSAID, Adm. Aspirin, where Adm. stands
for Administer.</p>
        <p>Deontic strength indicated on the thick labelled arrow
going out of the recommendation’s name and into the action.</p>
        <p>
          For recommendation R, we denote its deontic strength by
d (R). It “reflects a degree of obligatoriness expected for
that recommendation”
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref29">(Zamborlini et al., 2017, p. 82)</xref>
          .
d (R) takes values in [ 1; 1], being positive when &gt; 0 and
negative when &lt; 0. If d (R) &gt; 0, then R recommends to
perform the action; else, if d (R) &lt; 0, then R recommends
to avoid the action.
        </p>
        <p>
          As in
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref29">(Zamborlini et al., 2017)</xref>
          , to discretise d (R) we may
use the qualitative landmarks must, should, may, should
not and must not corresponding to values 1, 0:5, 0, 0:5,
1, respectively. For instance, d (R1) = 0:5 = should,
d (R2) = 0:5 = should not.
        </p>
        <p>Properties that the action affects, just below the action.
For instance, Blood Coag. and Gastro. Bleeding. (We
abbreviate words: e.g. Gastro. Bleeding abbreviates
Gastrointestinal Bleeding.)
In general, an action can affect more than one property P.
Effects of the actions within the dashed rectangles to the
left of the properties. For instance, decrease and increase.
An action A has one effect E on the property P it
affects. Effects may have determinate initial and final
values, within the rectangular boxes below the property in
question, the black arrow coming out of the initial value
(box) and leading into the final value (box). Otherwise, ?
represents an indeterminate value.</p>
        <p>For instance, action Adm. NSAID affects Blood Coag. by
decreasing it from the initial value normal to the final
value low. On the other hand, Adm. Aspirin increases
Gastro. Bleeding with indeterminate values.</p>
        <p>In this paper we will not make use of, but mention for
completeness, two quantitative values associated with an
effect. One is the causation probability within the dashed
ellipse below the property. It represents the likelihood of
the action bringing the effect about. For instance, often.
The other one is the belief strength boxed to the left- or
right-most side. It represents the level of evidence
regarding bringing the effect about. For instance, normal level.
Contributions of the recommendation to the overall goals
in the context of a guideline indicated below the
recommendation name within a transparent dashed rounded
box. For instance, +C1:1, C2:1.</p>
        <p>In general, recommendation R can have more than
one contribution. Each contribution carries an identifier,
e.g. C1:1, C2:1, and is valued in [ 1; 1], depending on
how important it is to achieve or avoid the corresponding
effect. The value is discretised with signs: +, and the
absence of a sign represent, respectively, values greater
than, less than and equal to 0.</p>
        <p>
          As in
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref29">(Zamborlini et al., 2017)</xref>
          , the overall goal is to
always abstract “patient well-being”. However, for a given
patient, the clinician may, and in general will, have
intermediate goals, such as to decrease Blood Coag. In this
paper, we are not specifically concerned with
intermediate goals and take them to be implicitly given by effects
that actions bring about.
        </p>
        <p>We will use R to denote a fixed but otherwise arbitrary set
of recommendations.</p>
        <p>Observe that an instance of TMR concerns a generic
patient. In order to apply recommendations, one needs to
consider specific patient conditions. Such conditions
pertain to properties and the initial values of the effects that
actions have on properties. For instance, a patient can
have normal Blood Coag. or Gastro. Bleeding. When
using ABA+ to reason with guidelines, patient conditions will
come as information additional to TMR instances.</p>
        <p>
          Using TMR,
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref29">Zamborlini et al. (2017)</xref>
          identify interactions
among recommendations. Intuitively, interactions record the
relationships between different recommendations. Several
types of interactions are possible, namely contradiction,
repetition, alternative, side-effect, repairable and safety. For
instance, a contradiction interaction arises between two
recommendations if one states that the action suggested by
the other should be avoided. A side-effect interaction arises
when the action of one recommendation causes a secondary
effect which is opposite to the effect of the action of the
other recommendation. For example, Ibuprofen may
increase Blood Press., which is aimed to be decreased by
another medication. Not all interactions concern conflicting
relationships, though. For instance, repetition indicates that
two recommendations suggest (roughly) the same course of
action, e.g. Adm. NSAID and Adm. Aspirin.
        </p>
        <p>The implementation of TMR used will allow for all such
interactions. However, for the purpose of illustrating
reasoning with recommendations using argumentation, we focus
on the contradiction interaction in this paper, because it
relates recommendations in direct conflict that can be naturally
resolved by means of argumentation.</p>
        <p>
          Formally, interactions can be represented as triples
(R; R0; m ) with recommendations R and R0, and the
interaction’s modal strength m , which reflects the conclusiveness
of the interaction. The interaction’s modal strength can take
two values, denoted by and , where means “the
interaction will certainly occur if the related recommendations
are prescribed”
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref29">(Zamborlini et al., 2017)</xref>
          and means “the
interaction is uncertain to happen”. We assume that the
interactions and their modal strengths are given along with the
instances of the TMR model. We will use I to denote the set
of all (contradiction) interactions given R.
        </p>
        <p>Note well that R and I amount only to representation of
guidelines, but not reasoning with them. In particular, it is a
patient-agnostic representation, while the reasoning happens
with patient-specific information. The following example
illustrates recommendations and their interactions.
Example 2.1. The two recommendations R1 and R2 as in
Figure 1 can be considered in (contradiction) interaction,
because they recommend opposite actions.1 So let R =
fR1; R2g and assume I = f(R1; R2; )g. Intuitively, for a
generic patient, NSAID—e.g. Aspirin—should be
administered. If, however, the patient exhibits Gastro. Bleeding, then
R1 and R2 are in conflict and there are arguments for both
administering and not administering Aspirin.</p>
        <p>To resolve the conflict in this case, one could administer a
different NSAID, such as Ibuprofen. However, in more
complicated situations such alternatives may not be readily
available, whence certain actions should not be taken (i.e. certain
recommendations cannot be followed).
2.2</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-2">
        <title>Guideline and EHR Data</title>
        <p>An implementation of TMR (see for instance
guidelines2.eculture.labs.vu.nl/swish/p/
datasetMaintenance.swinb) allows for the
computational representation of clinical guidelines using standards
such as the Resource Description Framework. We are
thus able to represent guidelines in a manner that makes
them amenable to the automatic instantiation of ABA+
frameworks for reasoning with guideline recommendations.</p>
        <p>Similarly, the EHR data required to reason with
guidelines in light of patient-specific information can be extracted
automatically via pieces of middleware running within GPs’
practices. These pieces of middleware are designed to
communicate with the Application Programming Interface of
a locally installed EHR system, and communicate patient
record information, at the discretion of the practitioner, to us
for use. Patient information can then be modelled as part of
a given TMR implementation, such as in the form of a set of
additional external rules, prior to being used in the reasoning
process, or delivered to the reasoning engine separately.</p>
        <p>This flow of data creates a decision support pipeline,
in which potentially conflicting guideline data, along with
EHR data, is passed to a reasoning engine that returns
nonconflicting recommendations for use by the system.
2.3</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-3">
        <title>Assumption-Based Argumentation with</title>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Preferences (ABA+)</title>
      <p>
        Argumentation is a branch of the field of Artificial
Intelligence concerned with reasoning with partial and conflicting
information. For example, medical information is often
partial, because it may be infeasible or simply unreasonable to
record all the possibly relevant patient information; medical
1Note well that a hierarchy of actions is assumed
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref29">(Zamborlini
et al., 2017, p. 79)</xref>
        to obtain interactions. For instance, the action
to administer NSAID subsumes both actions to administer Aspirin
and Ibuprofen. Such a hierarchy can be accessed via queries to a
populated implementation of TMR (See Section 2.2).
information can also be conflicting, as in the case of
conflicting clinical guideline recommendations. As such,
argumentation lends itself to be applied for reasoning purposes
in the context of guidelines and patient specific information.
      </p>
      <p>An important feature of many argumentation formalisms
is that they are inherently interpretable and afford
explainable reasoning. What this amounts to is the construction of
arguments and counterarguments for explicit claims, based
on explicit assumptions, using rules expressing application
specific reasoning patterns. In addition to providing
inspectable arguments and counterarguments for or against
claims that may encode beliefs, decisions etc.,
argumentation allows for questioning the assumptions underlying the
arguments and for a continuous addition of new assumptions
(and thus arguments). With this, one can explain why e.g. a
particular decision was taken, i.e. what were the arguments
for and against it, and how can one further question and/or
support that decision.</p>
      <p>
        In this work we use a well-established and
broadlystudied argumentation formalism, called ABA
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">(Bondarenko
et al., 1997)</xref>
        , and its extension ABA+
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2 ref6">(Cˇ yras and Toni, 2016;
Bao, Cˇ yras, and Toni, 2017)</xref>
        , because it has all the features
discussed above. We provide the background for ABA+
following
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5 ref6">(Bondarenko et al., 1997; Cˇ yras and Toni, 2016)</xref>
        .
      </p>
      <p>An ABA+ framework is a tuple (L; R; A;¯¯¯; 6), where:
(L; R) is a deductive system with L a language and R a
set of rules of the form j0 j1; : : : ; jm with m &gt; 1, or
of the form j0 &gt;, where ji 2 L for i 2 f0; : : : ; mg and
&gt; 62 L; j0 is the head and j1; : : : ; jm the body of the rule;
j0 &gt; is said to have an empty body and called a fact;
A L is a non-empty set of assumptions;
¯¯¯ : A ! L is a total map: for a 2 A, a is referred to as the
contrary of a ;
6 is a preorder (i.e. reflexive and transitive order) on A,
called a preference relation.</p>
      <p>As usual, the strict (asymmetric) counterpart &lt; of 6 is
given by a &lt; b iff a 6 b and b a , for any a and b . (We
assume this for all preorders in this paper.) For assumptions
a ; b 2 A, a 6 b means that b is at least as preferred as a ,
and a &lt; b means that a is strictly less preferred than b .</p>
      <p>
        Throughout the paper, we assume as given a fixed but
otherwise arbitrary ABA+ framework F = (L; R; A;¯¯¯; 6),
unless specified otherwise. If the preference relation 6 in
F = (L; R; A;¯¯¯; 6) is empty or unspecified, i.e. there are no
preferences, then we may refer to F as an ABA framework
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">Bondarenko et al. (1997)</xref>
        and denote it (L; R; A;¯¯¯).
      </p>
      <p>Assumptions in ABA+ represent arguable information.
For instance, assumptions can represent the applicability of,
or an agent’s willingness to follow, a recommendation. In
such a case, preferences in ABA+ can represent the relative
degrees obligatoriness, or willingness to follow, the
recommendations. We will exemplify various ABA+ components
in Section 3. We next give notions of arguments (as
deduction trees) and attacks in ABA+.</p>
      <p>An argument for j 2 L supported by A A and R R,
denoted A `R j , is a finite tree with: the root labelled by j ;
leaves labelled by &gt; or assumptions, with A being the set of
all such assumptions; the children of non-leaves y labelled
by the elements of the body of some y-headed rule in R,
with R being the set of all such rules. A ` j is a shorthand
for an argument A `R j with some R R.</p>
      <p>For A; B A, A &lt;-attacks B, denoted A &lt; B, iff:
a) either there is an argument A0 ` b , for some b 2 B,
supported by A0 A, and @a0 2 A0 with a0 &lt; b ;
b) or there is an argument B0 ` a, for some a 2 A,
supported by B0 B, and 9b 0 2 B0 with b 0 &lt; a.</p>
      <p>The intuition here is that A &lt;-attacks B if a) either A argues
contra something in B by means of no inferior elements
(normal attack), b) or B argues contra something in A but with at
least one inferior element (reverse attack).</p>
      <p>If A does not &lt;-attack B, we may write A 6 &lt; B. For ABA
frameworks (L; R; A;¯¯¯) we often drop the subscript/prefix
&lt; and say e.g. attacks, written . Note that without
preferences, an attack from one set of assumptions to another
boils down to the former set deducing the contrary of some
assumption in the latter set.</p>
      <p>In the setting of guideline recommendations, sets of
assumptions will represent sets of recommendations, and they
will induce arguments for or against following
recommendations. The attacks among sets of assumptions
(recommendations) will arise due to existence of interactions. The
preferences may come from e.g. the patient or the clinician.</p>
      <p>The reasoning in ABA+ is realised through the semantics.
Intuitively, a semantics gives conditions that a set of
assumptions needs to satisfy in order to be ‘acceptable’, or ‘good’.
The conclusions derived from acceptable assumptions
represent a coherent set of beliefs, decisions to make, actions
to take, etc., depending on the problem formulation, and are
thus deemed as the reasoning outcomes. We next give
notions used to define ABA+ semantics. Let A A.</p>
      <p>The conclusions of A is the set Cn(A) = fj 2 L : 9A0 ` j;
A0 Ag of sentences concluded by (arguments supported
by subsets of) A.</p>
      <p>We next give three basic requirements for sets of
assumptions to be ‘good’, or collectively acceptable. The first one
says such a set should include all assumptions it makes.
1. We say A is closed if A = Cn(A) \ A, i.e. A contains all
assumptions it concludes.</p>
      <p>We say F is flat if every A A is closed. We assume ABA+
frameworks to be flat, unless specified otherwise.</p>
      <p>The second one expresses that to be acceptable, a set
should not be conflicting, i.e. not to &lt;-attack itself.
2. A is &lt;-conflict-free if A 6 &lt; A.</p>
      <p>The third says that a ‘good’ set should defend against
counterarguments; we first define the notion of defense.</p>
      <p>A &lt;-defends A0 A if for all B A with B &lt; A0 it holds
that A &lt; B.</p>
      <p>So finally,
3. A is &lt;-admissible if it is &lt;-conflict-free and &lt;-defends
itself.</p>
      <p>These are arguably three ‘minimal’ requirements for
accepting a given set of assumptions (as well as arguments
based on them). Note that they are quite weak, because,
for instance, the empty set of assumptions is always
&lt;admissible. However, not much can in general be concluded
from 0/. Thus, ABA+ semantics impose additional
requirements for acceptance of assumptions and the associated
conclusions. In this paper we use one particular such semantics
which says that a ‘good’ set of assumptions should be as
large as possible, as follows.</p>
      <p>A set E A of assumptions is a &lt;-preferred extension of
F = (L; R; A;¯¯¯; 6) if E is -maximally &lt;-admissible.
In other words, with &lt;-preferred extensions we are aiming
to conclude as much as we can without contradicting
ourselves, whilst being able to defend ourselves.</p>
      <p>For ABA frameworks we often drop the prefix &lt; for the
notions above.</p>
      <p>3</p>
      <p>Mapping TMR and EHR to ABA+
In this section we discuss a mapping from TMR to ABA+,
augmenting the guideline recommendations and their
interactions with patient specific information based on EHR.</p>
      <p>For the purpose of mapping TMR instances to ABA+, we
assume a simplified TMR whose instances are
recommendations given as tuples (R; A; d (R); P; E; V; C) with
(i) name R,
(ii) action A,
(iii) deontic strength d (R),
(iv) properties P = hP1; : : : ; Pni, for n &gt; 1,
(v) effects E = hE1; : : : ; Eni,
(vi) initial values V = hv1; : : : ; vni of effects on properties,
(vii) contribution values C = hc1; : : : ; cni.</p>
      <p>We identify any such recommendation with its name R.</p>
      <p>We next describe a mapping from TMR to ABA+. We
omit the cumbersome formal details in the interest of space.
We will exemplify the mapping in Section 4.</p>
      <p>Given a recommendation (R; A; d (R); P; E; V; C), we
construct the following:
a) an assumption R 2 A representing the possible
applicability of the recommendation;
b) a rule A R 2 R representing that action A is
recommended by R;
c) for each property Pi and its corresponding effect Ei, a
i i
about effect EAi t2o pRropreeprtryesPen.ting that action A brings
rule E P
i</p>
      <p>We use the additional components of
recommendations to model interactions. Specifically, suppose
recommendations (R1; A1; d (R1); P1; E1; V1; C1) and
(R2; A2; d (R2); P2; E2; V2; C2) are in contradiction, with
actions A1 and A2 recommended positively (d (R1) &gt; 0)
and negatively (d (R2) &lt; 0), respectively. That means R2
can be argued against on the basis of R1 and the presence
of the interaction. On the other hand, R1 can be similarly
argued against on the basis of R2 and the presence of
the interaction, but only if a given patient presents some
condition affected by A2 that contributes negatively to the
patient’s well-being.</p>
      <p>Thus, given (R1; R2; m) 2 I, we construct the following:
d) R2 R1; int1;2;
e) R1 R2; int1;2; vP,
where P 2 P2 is a property with initial value v 2 V2 and
contribution = c 2 C2. (When the initial value v of P is
indeterminate ?, we use only P in the body of the rule.) Here,
int1;2 2 L represents (R1; R2; m) 2 I. The rule in d) says R2
should not be followed if (i) R1 is followed, and (ii) R1 and
R2 are in contradiction. The rule in e) says R1 should not be
followed if (i) R2 is followed, (ii) R1 and R2 are in
contradiction, and also (iii) the condition vP is present.</p>
      <p>The interaction’s modal strength determines whether the
interaction can be argued about or not:
f) given m,
1. if m = , let int &gt; 2 R;
2. if m = , let int 2 A.</p>
      <p>The rule int &gt; 2 R represents that the interaction is sure
to happen, i.e. it is a fact, and so there is no way to disagree
with it. However, as an assumption, int 2 A represents that
the interaction is not certain to happen and so can be argued
against by putting forward arguments for the contrary int.</p>
      <p>Now, the patient specific conditions can be similarly
represented as either facts or assumptions:
g) given a patient condition cond,
1. either let cond &gt; 2 R;
2. or let cond 2 A.</p>
      <p>Whether the conditions can be argued about or not depends
on the context. For instance, it may be debated whether a
patient is taking certain medications (confirmation of which
is part of standard hospital procedures), but it may be certain
that a patient has mild Angina.</p>
      <p>Of particular interest are those conditions that appear
within recommendations as properties affected by actions.
Specifically, if some condition as property P (and possibly
value v) matches that in a recommendation, then the addition
of P (or vP) as either a fact or an assumption may trigger a
rule concerning interactions of recommendations, such as e)
above. In this way a patient’s EHR can meaningfully
augment the TMR model when represented in ABA+.</p>
      <p>Given the assumptions and rules constructed from
recommendations in R and interactions in I as per points a)–g)
above, we can define an ABA framework (L; R; A;¯¯¯) with
contraries on assumptions a 2 A being new symbols a and
the language L given given by the symbols appearing in A,
R and fa : a 2 Ag. In (L; R; A;¯¯¯) we can construct
arguments and counterarguments for actions based on (the
possibility of following) recommendations and patient specific
conditions. The semantics (of e.g. preferred extensions, see
Section 2.3) then allow to determine sets (i.e. extensions)
of collectively non-conflicting recommendations for a given
patient. The conclusions of such extensions then yield, in
addition to the recommendations to be followed, the actions
to be taken as well as their consequences in terms of effects
on the patient’s conditions.</p>
      <p>In addition to recommendations and patient EHR
information, we may also have preferences over e.g. courses of
action, of one or the other party involved. For instance: the
patient may prefer one medicine over another, according to
what they are used to; or the clinician may prioritise one
course of action over another, based on their professional
experience; or else, the hospital may have preferences over
treatment methods, judging by the information on their
success in the local geographical region.</p>
      <p>Preferences can be naturally incorporated in ABA+ by
extending the ABA framework (L; R; A;¯¯¯) with a preference
relation 6 to obtain an ABA+ framework (L; R; A;¯¯¯; 6).
For example, if action A1 suggested by recommendation R1
is preferred over action A2 suggested by recommendation
R2, then the preference R2 &lt; R1 can be added. Such
preferences then possibly affect the reasoning outcomes in that the
extensions (and the associated conclusions) obtained respect
the preferences specified.</p>
      <p>Last but not least, the reasoning process in ABA+
instantiated with TMR, EHR and preferences is fully transparent
and explainable. Indeed, the assumptions and rules on which
the arguments are based are clearly stated, the attack
relationship among arguments is constructively defined based
on the explicitly given assumptions and preferences, and the
semantics comprehensively express reasonable requirement
for argument/assumption acceptance.</p>
      <p>We illustrate the mapping to and reasoning in ABA+ with
a use case in the next section.</p>
      <p>4</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>COPD Use Case</title>
      <p>The COPD use case developed sets up the boundaries and
scope of the problem that is mapped and resolved
throughout the rest of the model. The use case is established as
existing within the context of a secondary health-care system and
creates an artificial scenario of a patient that would present
themselves within the health-care system with symptoms
typical to COPD, and illustrate how they would be managed
within the health-care system with regards to following
official guideline recommendations.
4.1</p>
      <sec id="sec-4-1">
        <title>Stable COPD with Conflicting</title>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-4-2">
        <title>Recommendations</title>
        <p>The patient presents to a primary health-care setting
complaining of breathing difficulties and increased fatigue
during exercise, and following standard diagnostic procedures
not covered by the model, is diagnosed with mild stable
COPD. As for the treatment choice, a decision for
medication is made based on the patients vitals as some of the
main deciding factors in the form of: (i) Blood gas levels;
(ii) Spirometry results; (iii) Age; (iv) Current lifestyle habits;
(v) Existing comorbidities. For the purpose of illustrating
the argumentation component of the model, the patient is
assumed to have a pre-existing condition in the form of mild
Angina, which was diagnosed at an earlier point in time.</p>
        <p>
          Following the NICE COPD management guidelines
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref22">(NICE, 2010)</xref>
          , the patient is on schedule to be prescribed
a short course of Short-acting Beta Agonists (SABA). But
as outlined in the GOLD COPD management guideline
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">(GOLD, 2017)</xref>
          , which is used in conjunction with the NICE
guideline in primary health-care in the UK, a patient
presenting with angina should not be prescribed a standard SABA
inhaler as it may lead to further exacerbation of their
cardiovascular symptoms and progress towards heart failure. The
guideline instead suggests the prescription of a reduced
nebulised dose of the SABA medication, which while having the
therapeutic effect intended on relieving symptoms of mild
stable COPD, should not cause as much an irritation to the
patients cardiovascular system.
        </p>
        <p>Similarly, for patients who present with a mild form of
COPD, the NICE guideline recommends that the patient
undertake regular exercise to boost the functioning of their
cardiovascular system. It is easy to imagine a situation where
this would not be applicable, for example if the patient is
suffering from joint pain, or peripheral artery disease. In such
a case, the expected prescription would not only be
unhelpful, it would in fact be damaging to the health of the
patient. A contraindication to the aforementioned exercise can
be found within the clinical guidelines for the specific
comorbidities, highlighting the near unlimited potential
complexity of a clinical course.</p>
        <p>As such, the stable COPD with mild angina use case
serves as a simple illustration of the concept that can
thereupon be further expanded to encompass multimorbidities
and conflicts in medication, and outpatient management.
4.2</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Use Case in ABA+</title>
      <p>For illustrating how ABA+ deals with interacting guideline
recommendations, we take two recommendations from the
COPD use case, namely administering SABA and not
administering standard SABA. The two recommendations are
in contradiction, because standard SABA is subsumed by
SABA. Thus, R consists of the following recommendations.
1. (R1; A1; d (R1); P1; E1; V1; C1) with: (i) name R1;
(ii) A1 = SABA; (iii) d (R1) = must; (iv) P1 =
hLung muscles; Airwaysi; (v) E1 = hrelaxes; dilatesi;
(vi) V1 = h?; ?i; (vii) C1 = h+; +i;
2. (R2; A2; d (R2); P2; E2; V2; C2) with: (i) name R2; (ii)
standard SABA; (iii) d (R2) = must not; (iv) P2 = hAnginai;
(v) E2 = hincreasei; (vi) V2 = hmildi; (vii) C2 = h i.</p>
      <p>We assume that the interaction between R1 and R2 is
certain, so that I = f(R1; R2; )g. Importantly, R and I yield the
assumptions R1; R2 2 A and the following rules in R:
R2 R1; int1;2;
R1 R2; int1;2; mild Angina;
int1;2 &gt;.
(For simplicity, we omit to specify the rules regarding the
actions as well as their effects on properties.)</p>
      <p>Given that the patient has a mild Angina, we have
mild Angina &gt;
in R, representing the patient specific condition.</p>
      <p>In the resulting ABA framework (L; R; A;¯¯¯) we find
arguments fR1g ` R2 and fR2g ` R1, so that fR1g and fR2g
attack each other. The two sets are thus preferred extensions
of (L; R; A;¯¯¯), concluding respectively administering SABA
and not administering standard SABA. As one of the
conclusions is not to take any action, one can either employ
preferences, or pass the information back to the TMR
implementation to refine recommendations, if possible.</p>
      <p>Regarding preferences, the clinician could insist that not
worsening Angina takes priority over addressing COPD by
way of administering standard SABA. Thus, the preference
R1 &lt; R2 could be added to obtain the ABA+ framework
(L; R; A;¯¯¯; 6). There, fR2g &lt; fR1g, but fR1g 6 &lt; fR2g,
so that R2 forms a unique &lt;-preferred extension and no
action is recommended.</p>
      <p>Following this, or otherwise prior to employing
preferences, one can look for a refinement of the generic
recommendation R1. And indeed, recommendation R3 can be
found that is like R1, but suggests administering nebulised
SABA instead. Adding R3 to the existing ABA/ABA+
framework, or otherwise constructing a new one with R3 replacing
R1, leads to obtaining &lt;-preferred extensions which
conclude administering nebulised SABA. This is in agreement
with what should actually be done.</p>
      <p>Note well that reasoning with conflicting information (as
well as preferences) and yielding non-conflicting
conclusions is not the only thing allowed by argumentation. In
addition, argumentation affords means to inspect and explain
the reasoning. In particular, the extensions obtained, as well
as arguments for specific claims and/or based on specific
assumptions, can be presented to the clinician or more
generally a user of the LHS. This way the user can interact and
provide feedback to the system so that it evolves and yields
better reasoning outcomes in the future. We leave the
description and implementation of feedback integration within
the system for future work.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>5 Related Work</title>
      <p>
        Argumentation has already been successfully applied in
health-care, see e.g.
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref19">(Longo, 2016; Atkinson et al., 2017)</xref>
        for
overviews. Different works can be distinguished by the
components of the argumentative reasoning process they use.
      </p>
      <p>There are several works that use both argument
construction and argumentation semantics for reasoning with
medical knowledge, as we do in this paper.</p>
      <p>
        For instance,
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15">Hunter and Williams (2012)</xref>
        use a structured
argumentation formalism and employ preferences to
reason with conflicting medical knowledge. In their work,
evidence from clinical trials is manually extracted from
guidelines and synthesised to form arguments for, and
counterarguments against, treatment superiority. Based on treatment
outcome indicators and the importance of evidence,
userspecified preferences over arguments are formed.
Semantics of grounded
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">(Dung, 1995)</xref>
        and preferred extensions are
used to identify the acceptable arguments and thus the
superior treatments. We, in contrast, focus on resolving conflicts
among guideline recommendations when managing
multimorbidities, rather than determining treatment superiority
based on clinical trials. We also aim our methodology to
yield explainable decision support.
      </p>
      <p>
        The recent CONSULT project
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">(Kokciyan et al., 2018)</xref>
        applies argumentation to reason with guidelines and patient
preferences for managing post-stroke patients.
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">Kokciyan et
al. (2018)</xref>
        manually represent guidelines in first-order logic
(FOL) and use argument schemes
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref27">(Walton, 1996)</xref>
        ,
preferences and argumentation semantics to resolve
inconsistencies among recommendations. We instead build
argumentation on the well-established TMR model and offer
explainable decision making. We leave formal comparison with
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">(Kokciyan et al., 2018)</xref>
        for future work.
      </p>
      <p>Other works incorporating argumentation and preferences
focus on helping clinicians to construct and evaluate
arguments for and against decisions. As such, they do not
automatically populate their argumentation frameworks with
guideline knowledge or EHR data, and do concern
reasoning with clinical guideline recommendations, but are
nevertheless related to our work due to the use of argumentation
semantics for reasoning.</p>
      <p>
        For instance,
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref26">Tolchinsky et al. (2006)</xref>
        use
argumentation, its semantics and preferences in a multi-agent
deliberation about organ transplantation. There, expert
clinicians use argumentation schemes to construct arguments
and attacks concerning viability of transplantation. A
mediator agent then evaluates the arguments so as to
determine their strength. The mediator agents does this by using
as preferences over arguments the knowledge from clinical
guidelines, as well as knowledge about past transplantations
and the interacting agents themselves. Somewhat similar in
spirit, the system ArgMed
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref24">(Qassas et al., 2016)</xref>
        allows to
document and turn clinicians’ discussions into
argumentation frameworks using argumentation schemes. After that,
preferred semantics is used to determine the acceptable
arguments and hence the best claims made by the clinicians.
      </p>
      <p>
        In some works that use argumentation components to
model information, argumentation semantics are not used
to execute the reasoning itself. For instance, in one of the
earliest related works,
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">Fox et al. (2006)</xref>
        enable agents to
exchange arguments in order to automate medical reasoning,
albeit not with guideline recommendations. Arguments are
assigned strength and the strengths can be aggregated using
e.g. probabilistic or decision making approaches to
determine the strongest arguments.
      </p>
      <p>
        An argument aggregation mechanism for reasoning with
guidelines is used in
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14 ref15">(Grando, Glasspool, and Boxwala,
2012)</xref>
        . There, templates for generating arguments are based
on argumentation schemes. Arguments roughly correspond
to statements in clinical guidelines: an argument consists of
assumptions, claim, polarity (for or against claim),
confidence (representing, for instance, quality of the evidence or
the likelihood of an outcome) and precondition (whether the
argument is applicable). A unique goal needs to be
specified when aggregating argument confidence metrics to
reason about the strength of the arguments that enable one to
achieve the goal in question. Aside from the use of
argumentation semantics instead of argument aggregation, a few
points make our work different: i) we focus on reasoning
with conflicting recommendations from multiple guidelines,
whereas Grando, Glasspool, and Boxwala (2012) are
executing recommendations of a single guideline; ii) also,
reasoning in ABA+ is assumption-, rather than goal-, driven.
      </p>
      <p>
        As for non-argumentative approaches to reasoning with
interacting guidelines,
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref28">Wilk et al. (2017)</xref>
        propose a
framework for mitigating concurrent execution of clinical
guidelines. They also deal with patient specific conditions and
patient preferences. There, recommendations are represented
as actionable graphs.
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref28">Wilk et al. (2017)</xref>
        map those into FOL
rules, and introduce patient conditions and preferences via
FOL revision operators. Guideline mitigation then amounts
to applying revision operators to FOL rules representing the
recommendations, so as to account for patient specific
conditions and preferences. Finally, reasoning is done by finding
models of the resulting FOL theory.
      </p>
      <p>
        Our work is different in terms of both reasoning and
representation. Regarding representation, as indicated by
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref28">Wilk
et al. (2017)</xref>
        , the TMR model is in some aspects richer than
the mitigation specific FOL (however, TMR does not have a
temporal component which is present in
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref28">(Wilk et al., 2017)</xref>
        ).
Regarding reasoning mechanisms, model finding in FOL is
in general an undecidable problem, as opposed to finding
preferred extensions in ABA+ frameworks. We also believe
argumentation-based reasoning to be more transparent, as
one can inspect the arguments, attacks among them and their
interplay with preferences, in contrast to interpreting
workings and results of a FOL theorem prover utilised by
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref28">Wilk
et al. (2017)</xref>
        . It would be interesting though to integrate the
temporal aspect into our implementation of the TMR model
and within ABA+. We leave this for future work.
      </p>
      <p>
        Other approaches to reasoning with guidelines and
temporal as well as clinical constraints exist
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref23">(Peleg, 2013)</xref>
        , mainly
using task network models, see e.g.
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref18">Leonardi et al. (2012)</xref>
        ;
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref25">Shalom, Shahar, and Lunenfeld (2016</xref>
        ). However, they deal
with single rather than multiple guidelines and are thus not
specialised to handle conflicts, as opposed to our approach.
6
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-7">
      <title>Conclusions and Future Work</title>
      <p>We described work in progress towards a Decision
Support System that will use Transition-based Medical
Recommendation model (TMR) and its integration with electronic
health record (EHR) data to facilitate automated execution
of interacting clinical guidelines by taking into account
patient’s individual medical history and preferences of various
parties involved. In particular, we proposed the structured
argumentation formalism ABA+ for automated reasoning
with conflicting clinical guideline recommendations as well
as patient information and preferences. We also discussed
how ABA+ yields interpretable and explainable medical
decisions for execution of guideline recommendations.</p>
      <p>
        Future work on implementations of TMR involves
constructing standard interfaces that can be queried ad-hoc by
other systems such as argumentation frameworks. Similar
efforts to increase the interoperability of EHR data include
the examination of techniques to standardise independent
vendor formats to a single target format such as HL7’s FHIR
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">(Bender and Sartipi, 2013)</xref>
        .
      </p>
      <p>In terms of argumentation, there are several directions for
future work. Firstly, we will aim to account for various types
of interactions that accompany the TMR model, including
those concerning conflicts such as side-effects, but also other
interactions such as safety. We will also study the
integration of preferences from various sources, and possible
interactions of those preferences. In addition, we will explore
various ways of extracting explanations from the
argumentative reasoning process, such as visualising arguments and
their relationships, as well as using natural language
generation to yield textual explanations of the reasoning outcomes.
Finally, we will make use of the well-established theoretical
properties of, particularly, ABA+, regarding reasoning and
preferences, and establish what they mean in the context of
medical decision making.</p>
      <p>Acknowledgements The authors were funded by the
EPSRC project EP/P029558/1 ROAD2H: Resource
Optimisation, Argumentation, Decision Support and Knowledge
Transfer to Create Value via Learning Health Systems,
except for Martin Chapman who was funded by the
EPSRC project EP/P010105/1 CONSULT: Collaborative
Mobile Decision Support for Managing Multiple Morbidities.</p>
    </sec>
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</article>