Risks Management & Opportunity NovaLT5 Product Revitalization Emiliano Caggiano Gas Turbine Systems Engineering Baker Hughes, a GE Company Florence, Italy emiliano.caggiano@bhge.com Copyright © held by the author ABSTRACT: NovaLT5 gas turbine is a new alternative for a wide and risks with global supply chain, generating the ATQ range of small power generation applications. The NovaLT5 is (Approval to Quote) document and providing technical an improved version of the GE5 and it is built on the technology content for the application data and performance tools. and innovation of last successful NovaLT16. The GE5 was already tested in different applications around the As already mentioned, GE5 life cycle has been world and evolved to become the more efficient NovaLT product. completed and succeeded by the new and improved GE5 development was put on hold in 2005; after ten years the NovaLT5. project has been restarted due to the need of 5 MW gas turbine portfolio fulfillment. FIGURE 1 CYCLE LIFE (2) NovaLT5 has the peculiarity of high exhaust temperature which is particularly advantageous for Heat Recovery System (HRS) applications. This paper presents a case study of “Risk & Opportunity Management” applied to revitalization of the supply chain, manufacturing processing and tooling, updating of engineering documentation and assessment to compliance with actual legislations. Sales opportunities are balanced and traded-off with engineering effort and manufacturing investment. The new design has been obtained going through the Life I. INTRODUCTION Cycle phases, shown above (Fig. 1), already followed for the GE5 and retailored against the new technologies and stakeholder’s requirements. NovaLT5 is 5,6 MW engine (single shaft) for power generation application, that is a gas turbine electrical Risk & opportunity management is performed along the generator driven. This gas turbine, thanks to the Heat whole life steps of the product (see Fig. 2 below). Recovery System, produces high temperature steam by exhausted gases that reaches 85% of efficiency. FIGURE 2 BHGE decided to expand gas turbine portfolio with a 5 MW machine, redesigning the “GE5” engine, already proved in the past and retired in 2005. After the NovaLT16 launch, the market analysis of last years revealed the possibility to confirm our excellence in GT up to 20MW, both for power generation and for mechanical drive applications. The "Risk & Opportunity Management", applied to NovaLT5 revitalization, highlights influence of Diagram shown in fig.3 provides qualitative indication manufacturing processing, tooling, updating of engineering regarding program Risk category (from #1 to #4). documentation and assessment to compliance with actual FIGURE 3 (1) legislation. Opportunities are balanced and traded-off with engineering effort and manufacturing investment. Decision to re-launch the production has been taking by analysis the balance between market size and manufacturing and engineering investment. The study started from experience, matured with GE5 fleet along with related Lesson Learned, field experiences and all other aspects improved into the new product, according to the Product Line Management (PLM) discipline. II. RISK ANALYSIS In our organization the Systems Engineer/Technical Leader is responsible for assessing the technical regulations Specific tailored framework is coupled to each program category (figure 4). III. OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS FIGURE 4 PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS (1) GE5 redesign effort has been motivated by LT16 market analysis, that highlighted the need of a competitive 5 MW gas turbine, aligned with new technologies for which the GE5 was obsolete at this point. To confirm the market analysis suggestion, the new idea, not yet existing product, has been proposed into the market and captured enough acquirers to justify the required cost of investment. The first unit sold requested an agreement with the customer for a longer lead time with respect to its need. Thanks to this achievement there was the chance to develop the technical missing content. The outcome of this step allowed to lower the lead time to the standard value for this market segment. FIGURE 5 RISK CRITERIA Risk can be viewed under three different perspectives: • Technology risks: project complexity, initial product Technology Readiness Level (TRL) and Manufacturing Readiness Level (MRL) • Financial risk: project budget • Commercial risks: commercial uncertainties and litigation possibilities. Technical risk considered Feasibility and compatibility to revitalize GE5 product to take leverage on new available technologies: items redesign to reduce manufacturing cycle costs and supplier cost, to take into account new market requirements, to fix issues. In this case, two different risk levels were assigned to the two main sub-systems: • Gas Turbine Engine (Flange-to-Flange): level 2 because very similar the previous one. • Gas Turbine Package (enclosure, driven and auxiliary): level 3, because totally different from the previous GE5. Financial risk evaluated the cost of investment coming from market analysis. Cost of Investment plan had a differentiated payback for IV. CONCLUSIONS package, engine and service unit. Result a medium risk. Thanks to a pondered balance between potential risks and market opportunities, it has been possible to realize a successful gas turbine without extreme economical exposure: Commercial risks defined the strategy to penetrate into the risks, technical, financial and commercial, have been the market looking at the most crucial parameters as CAPEX evaluated and market opportunities validated through the sale (Capital Expense, basically the product price), Mean Time of the idea and not of the already existing product. The Between Maintenance, Modular design, low combustion “balanced” mitigation approach proved effective in term of emissions, high Combined Heat and Power (CHP) customer acceptance. efficiency. Result a medium/high risk REFERENCES [1] Product Development process - BHGE-QUA-038 (EN) Rev. 1.0 [2] Systems Engineering for Gas Turbines Life Cycle Management: a tailoredapproach - EMEASEC 2018 / TdSE 2018