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<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>The Regression Tree Model Building Based on a Cluster- Regression Approximation for Data-Driven Medicine</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Zaporizhzhia National Technical University</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Zhukovsky str., 64,Zaporizhzhia, 69063</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="UA">Ukraine</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>Zaporizhzhia State Medical University</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Maiakovskyi avenue 26, Zaporizhzhia, 69035</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="UA">Ukraine</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <abstract>
        <p>The problem of quantitative dependency model building on precedents for data-driven medicine is considered. A tree-cluster-regression approximation method is proposed. It makes possible to ensure acceptable model accuracy, high levels of interpretability and generalization of data, and to reduce the complexity of the model. The software that implements the proposed methods is developed. The developed software is studied at solving the problem of children health indicator modelling.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>data-driven diagnosis</kwd>
        <kwd>regression</kwd>
        <kwd>cluster analysis</kwd>
        <kwd>clusterregression approximation</kwd>
        <kwd>regression tree</kwd>
        <kwd>neural network</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>Introduction</title>
      <p>The data-driven diagnosis in medicine means decision making based on observations
of a set of descriptive diagnostic features characterizing the patient's condition.</p>
      <p>In contrast to the traditional expert approach involving human expert, data-driven
diagnostics do not require the direct involvement of a person in the decision-making
process (this is provided by the model), and also does not require expert knowledge in
the form of regularities and rules for building the model (this is ensured by automatic
extraction of knowledge from observations in the model learning process).</p>
      <p>This allows using the data-driven diagnosis for a quick decision-making under time
constraints (screening diagnostics), as well as automating decision-making and
control of decisions made in the context of a lack of expert knowledge or experts.</p>
      <p>A special class of models for making diagnostic decisions is constituted by
quantitative models for estimating or predicting the values of the output real variable.</p>
      <p>
        The known methods for model constructing of quantitative dependencies on
observations such as regression analysis [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref2">1, 2</xref>
        ], neural networks [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3 ref4">3, 4</xref>
        ] and the Group
Method of Data Handling [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5 ref6">5, 6</xref>
        ] strive to build a single model in the entire feature space by
solving an optimization problem that requires a lot of time and leads to a complex
model, and also requires a large amount of observations, which is not always possible
in practice.
      </p>
      <p>
        Other well-known methods, such as regression trees [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7 ref8 ref9">7, 8, 9</xref>
        ] and neuro-fuzzy
networks [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref11 ref12 ref13">10–13</xref>
        ] build a combination of primitive partial models for local areas in the
feature space, which allows to simplify the obtained model, but significantly reduces
it accuracy, however, at the same time, it allows to synthesize models based on a
smaller set of observations.
      </p>
      <p>
        A compromise between the above groups of methods is the cluster-regression
approximation method [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ], which allows to obtain sufficiently accurate, as well as
simple and interpretable models, minimizing the number of used features.
      </p>
      <p>
        At the same time, the cluster-regression approximation method [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ] is strongly
dependent on the cluster analysis procedure, which, as a rule, is time-consuming and
requires the setting of cluster separation principles.
      </p>
      <p>The aim of the paper is to simplify the cluster regression approximation models by
indirectly implementing the cluster analysis in the process of model building.
2</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Formal problem statement</title>
      <p>Let we have a training set of S precedents (observations, instances, cases) &lt;x, y&gt;,
where x = {xs}, y={ys}, s = 1, 2, ..., S, xs is an s-th instance of the sample, ys is an
output feature value associated with the s-th instance, xs = {xsj}, j = 1, 2, ..., N, xsj is a
value of the j-th input feature of the s-th instance, N is a number of input features.</p>
      <p>Then the model constructing task for the dependence y=f(w, x) is to find such a
model structure f and such values of model parameters w for which the model quality
criterion F is satisfied. As a rule, for the problems of approximation the model quality
criterion is determined as a function of the model error (1):</p>
      <p>E   y s  f (w, x s )2  0 .</p>
      <p>S
s1
(1)
3</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Literature review</title>
      <p>
        The regression analysis methods [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref2">1, 2</xref>
        ] allow for a given sample of observations to
obtain polynomial models, which coefficients are determined in the general case by
solving the optimization problem of minimizing the error criterion in the space of
model coefficients. The advantage of these methods is their universality. The
disadvantages of these methods are the non-interpretativity of the models obtained with a
large number of features, as well as the problem of choosing the optimal structure and
complexity of the model.
      </p>
      <p>
        The methods for constructing the predictive models based on neural networks [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3 ref4">3,
4</xref>
        ], as a rule, also, as in the case of regression analysis, for model building (training)
require solving of the optimization problem to minimize the error criterion in the
model weights space. However, the model has, as a rule, a specific structure, which
can be considered as a hierarchical combination of nonlinear functions and linear
polynomials. The method's advantage is its universality. The disadvantages of the
method are non-interpretativity and high complexity of obtained models, the problem
of choosing the optimal structure of the model and the parameters of its elements, as
well as high interactivity and time-consumity of the method.
      </p>
      <p>
        The Group Method of Data Handling proposed by A.G. Ivakhnenko [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5 ref6">5, 6</xref>
        ] assumes
enumeration of dependency models based on support functions the polynomials of
various degrees, combining different combinations of input variables. For each model,
the coefficients are determined by the method of regression analysis [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref2">1, 2</xref>
        ]. Among all
the models the several best are selected. The best selected models are used at the next
iteration of the method as arguments for the formation of more complex models. The
model quality is determined by the error or the determination coefficient, or by the
coefficient of pair correlation between output and input features. If an acceptable
model is found, the method terminates. A peculiarity of the method is the
convertibility of the obtained models into polynomial neural networks (a kind of deep neural
networks). The advantages of the method are its universality, suitability for small-size
samples, the ability to solve the problem of informative features selection in the
process of model building, the structuredness and hierarchy of the resulting models and,
as a result, their interpretability. The disadvantages of the method are a significant
increase in the complexity of the obtained models with an increase in the volume of
training data and requirements for the accuracy of the model, as well as an increase in
the number of used input features, high interactivity and considerable time-consumity
of the method.
      </p>
      <p>A common feature of all the methods listed above is that they strive to build a
single polynomial model throughout the entire space of the original features, the
coefficients of which are selected by solving an optimization problem. This approach turns
out to be very costly with a large number of features and instances, and is also fraught
with the problem of choosing the starting point of the search, setting the optimal
structure and parameters of the network.</p>
      <p>
        The methods of regression tree constructing [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7 ref8 ref9">7–9</xref>
        ] hierarchically divide the initial
space into regions (clusters), in which they evaluate the output average value for the
instances hit in the cluster. This value is assigned to the output feature of all instances
hitting in this cluster. The advantage of this group of methods is the simplicity and
interpretability of the resulting models, as well as the possibility of passing the cluster
analysis tasks and selecting informative features. The disadvantages of the methods of
this group are the low accuracy of the obtained models, as well as the ambiguity in the
hierarchical combination of checks for assigning an instance to a cluster.
      </p>
      <p>
        The predictive model constructing methods based on neuro-fuzzy networks [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref11 ref12 ref13">10–
13</xref>
        ] represent a model of the dependence as a combination of linear regression models
of dependencies of an output feature from input features for individual regions in the
feature space (clusters) defined by rules, specified by experts or derived from a cluster
analysis. The advantage of the resulting models is their interpretability. The
disadvantages of these methods are that the resulting models are not accurate enough, when
there are a large number of initial features then model is an extremely complex, and
the time to build a model also significantly increases. In addition, the disadvantages
include the dependability of this group of methods on the availability of expert
knowledge or the need for a preliminary cluster analysis.
      </p>
      <p>A common peculiarity of the decision trees and neuro-fuzzy networks in numerical
model construction is that they instead of constructing a single model for entire
feature space build a set of hierarchically derived linear models as a result of cluster
analysis. The advantage of the obtained models is their interpretability. The
disadvantage of the obtained models is their low accuracy.</p>
      <p>
        The cluster-regression approximation method proposed in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ] combines the
advantages and eliminates the disadvantages of the above described groups of methods.
The clusters are allocated in the original feature space. Then for each cluster the
method builds partial model. At the same time, in each cluster a set of models is built
that use a smaller in size set of the most informative features to build a partial model,
while the partial models are built as linear or neural network based. This method also
has a neural network and neuro-fuzzy interpretation [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        The advantage of the cluster-regression approximation method is that it is allow to
obtain more accurate models than neuro-fuzzy networks and decision trees, but,
unlike neural networks, it builds separate models for each cluster, trying to minimize the
number of features for each partial model, which makes possible to obtain simpler
and more interpretable models. The disadvantage of the cluster-regression
approximation method [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ] is that it requires to use a cluster analysis [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15 ref16">15, 16</xref>
        ], during which it
uses the whole set of initial features.
      </p>
      <p>Therefore, an urgent task is to improve the method of cluster-regression
approximation by indirectly implementing cluster analysis in the process of model building.
4</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>The modified method of a cluster-regression approximation</title>
      <p>
        Consider the basic method of cluster regression approximation [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ]. It splits the
sample in a feature space into compact groups of instances called clusters. For instances
of each cluster, it builds partial regression models, seeking to minimize the
complexity of each model and the number of used features. However, the resulting model may
still be redundant. Therefore, it is proposed to simplify the model after building by
contrasting the model weights. Formally, this method can be written as follows.
      </p>
      <p>
        1. The cluster allocation stage. On the basis of instances of a given training sample
&lt;x, y&gt; using a given cluster analysis method [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16 ref17">16, 17</xref>
        ], allocate Q clusters in the feature
space by determining the coordinates of their centers {Cq}, Cq = {Cqj}, where Cqj is a
coordinate of a q-th cluster center on j-th feature, q = 1, 2, ..., Q, j = 1, 2, ..., N.
      </p>
      <p>2. The stage of a training set cluster analysis. Determine the belonging of each s-th
instance xs of the sample &lt;x, y&gt; to the clusters, s = 1, 2, ..., S:</p>
      <p>– find the distances R(xs , C q ) from the instance xs to the center of each cluster Cq ,
q = 1, 2, ..., Q, in the metric of the corresponding cluster analysis method;
– assign the instance xs to the qs cluster, the distance from the instance to which
center is the smallest, where qs is obtained form (2):
q s  arg</p>
      <p>min
q1,2,...,Q
{R(x s , C q )} .</p>
      <p>(2)
3. The stage of partial model building for clusters. For instances of each q-th
cluster, q = 1, 2, ..., Q:</p>
      <p>
        – if only one instance hit into q-th cluster, then accept it as a singleton, specifying
the partial model-function of the q-th cluster as a constant: fq = {xs | !s : qs  q };
– if more than one instance hit into q-th cluster, then evaluate the individual
informativity of each j-th feature relatively to the output feature y for instances of the
qth cluster I q (x j , y) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17 ref18">17, 18</xref>
        ], build for the instances of q-th cluster the
onedimensional linear regression model of the output feature y dependence on the
individually most informative input feature fq = wq1xsj+wq0, where wqj is a q-th cluster
model weight coefficient for j-th feature obtained using the least squares method [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref2">1,
2</xref>
        ], estimate the error of the resulting partial q-th model Eq using (1), if the error Eq is
acceptable (for example, if Eq(Sq/S)  ε , where ε is the user-specified maximal
allowable error value for the entire sample), then proceed the next cluster, otherwise:
build for the
q-th cluster instances a multidimensional linear regression model of the output feature
dependence on the entire set of input features in the form (3) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref2">1, 2</xref>
        ]:
estimate the error of the obtained q-th partial model Eq, if the error Eq is acceptable
(for example, if Eq(Sq/S)  ε ), then proceed the next cluster, otherwise: build a
multidimensional non-linear model of the dependence of the output feature from the entire
set of input features for instances of q-th cluster based on a single-layer perceptron
working according to (4) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref19">19</xref>
        ]:
(3)
(4)
where q is a nonlinear activation function, for example, sigmoid (in this case may
be we will need to normalize the output parameter, mapping its values to the interval
of q function values), using the Widrow-Hoff method [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref19">19</xref>
        ] for training, estimate the
error of the resulting partial q-th model Eq, if the error Eq is acceptable (for example,
if Eq(Sq/S)  ε ), then proceed the next cluster, otherwise: build for the q-th cluster
instances a partial multidimensional nonlinear model of the output feature y
dependence on the entire set of input features based on two-layer perceptron (5) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3 ref4">3, 4</xref>
        ]:
 Nq,1
f q  q,(2,1)  w0q,(2,1)  
 i1
      </p>
      <p> N  
wq,(2,1)q,(2,1)  wq,(1,i)   wq,(1,i) xs   ,
i i  0 j j  
 j 1  
(5)
f q  w0q  N wqj xsj ,</p>
      <p>j 1
 N 
f q  q  w0q   wqj x sj  ,</p>
      <p>
         j 1 
where q,(,i) is the activation function of i-th neuron of  -th layer of the neural
network of q-th model, wq,(,i) is the weight coefficient of j-th input of i-th neuron of
j
the  -th layer of the neural network of q-th model, Nq,1 is the number of neurons in
the first layer of neural network of q-th model. The model is trained on the basis of
the Levenberg-Marquardt method [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref20">20</xref>
        ] using the error back-propagation technique
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref21">21</xref>
        ]. Estimate the error obtained by the partial q-th model Eq. If the error Eq is
acceptable (for example, if Eq(Sq/S)  ε ), then proceed to the next cluster, otherwise,
either continue by analogy to increase the number of layers in the partial model, or
accept as a partial model of the q-th cluster the most accurate of the constructed
partial models.
      </p>
      <p>4. The model simplification stage. For all clusters for which multidimensional
regression models are constructed, sequentially iterate over combinations of features,
removing k of the least individually informative features (k = 1, 2, ..., N–1), setting
their weights in the partial model of the q-th cluster equal zero, as long as the error of
the corresponding partial model remains acceptable. For all clusters for which
multidimensional neural network models are constructed, perform contrasting of weights
[22], as long as the errors of partial neural network models are acceptable. If some of
the original features are excluded from all partial models, then remove them from the
sample.</p>
      <p>
        5. The model synthesis stage. Based on the obtained set of cluster centers and
constructed partial models, synthesize a cluster-regression, neural network or neuro-fuzzy
model [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ], or a regression tree of a special type as described below.
5
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>The method of regression tree synthesis based on a clusterregression approximation</title>
      <p>The method of regression tree synthesis based on the built cluster-regression
approximation assumes that each leaf of the tree (the node that has no descendants) is
considered a cluster. At the same time, in contrast to the known methods of regression
tree building, where the each leaf contains only the average value of the output feature
for the instances that hit into this leaf (cluster), the proposed method in each leaf
contains the function of the partial model. The proposed method consists of the following
steps.</p>
      <p>1. The pseudo-sampling stage. Firstly form pseudo-instances based on the centers
of selected clusters {Сq}, taking the coordinates of the cluster centers Сq={Сqj} as the
coordinates of the input features of pseudo-instances, and as the output taking the
average output of the partial model of the corresponding cluster (6):
y q  1q S{y s | qs  q} ,</p>
      <p>S s1
(6)
where Sq is a number of instances hit into q-th cluster.</p>
      <p>
        2. Stage of the decision tree building. For the sample of pseudo-instances &lt;C, y &gt;,
C = {Сq}, y  {y q} , construct regression trees based on the known methods of
regression tree constructing [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7 ref8 ref9">7-9</xref>
        ]. Then select best model from them in the sense of
accuracy. This will be the tree providing the smallest error.
      </p>
      <p>3. Stage of partial model construction. Regarding the best constructed tree,
recognize instances of the training set, determining their hit in the leafy nodes of the tree.
For the instances of each corresponding q-th cluster leaf obtain the partial model fq
performing the third stage of the cluster-regression approximation method described
above.</p>
      <p>4. The stage of the regression tree reduction. Looking through the resulting tree
from the bottom to up (from the leafs to the root):
– if the current q-th node is a leaf, then skip it by going to the next node;
– if the current q-th node is not a leaf and one of its descendants is also not a leaf,
then skip it by going to the next node;</p>
      <p>– if the current q-th node is not a leaf, and all its descendants are leafs, then for
instances of nodes-descendants of this node build a partial regression model fq regarding
the third stage of the above-described method of cluster-regression approximation and
evaluate model error Eq for instances of these nodes. If the model fq provides an
acceptable error (Eq(Sq/S)  ε ), then add it to the current q-th node, and remove all
children of the q-th node and then use the q-th node as a leaf.</p>
      <p>The constructed tree can be used as an independent model, as well as for
constructing the neural network model based on a cluster-regression approximation.
6</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-6">
      <title>The method of neural network model constructing based on a regression tree</title>
      <p>The method of a neural network model building based on a regression tree can be
presented as follows.</p>
      <p>1. The sample clustering stage. Recognize the given training sample &lt;x, y&gt; using
the constructed regression tree and determine belonging qs of each instance xs, s = 1,
2, .., S, to leaf nodes (clusters) of the tree.</p>
      <p>2. The cluster centers determining stage. For instances of each q-th cluster (leaf of
the tree) find the coordinates of its center Cq ={Cqj} using (7):</p>
      <p>C qj 
1 S
q {xsj | qs  q} , j = 1, 2, ..., N, q = 1,2, ..., Q.</p>
      <p>S s1
(7)
where Sq is a number of instances hit to the q-th cluster (tree leaf).</p>
      <p>
        3. The model construction stage. On the basis of the found coordinates of the
cluster centers {Cq} and the partial models of the nodes-clusters {fq}, construct a
clusterregression model in the form of a neural or neuro-fuzzy network [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>The proposed set of methods makes possible to synthesize a cluster-regression
model on the basis of a given sample, on the basis of which a regression tree can be
constructed, which can also be transformed into a neural network model.
7</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-7">
      <title>Model selection and comparison criteria</title>
      <p>The choice of a model for a specific task is determined by the presence of properties
important to the user. To compare the models, we need to consider their most
important properties and to define the indicators that quantitatively characterize them.</p>
      <p>The key indicator of model properties is its error E. Also, the model is
characterized by the number of adjustable parameters Nw, and by the number of used features
N'.</p>
      <p>The model quality information criteria known from the literature [23–25] such as
the Hannan-Quinn Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, Minimum Description
Length, Shortest Data Description, Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), Corrected
AIC, Unbiased AIC, Consistent AIC, and Mallow Criterion depend on the model
error, the training sample dimensionality (the number of instances and the number of
features), the number of the model adjustable parameters and the maximum
permissible number of model parameters [26, 27].</p>
      <p>Since the models comparing, as a rule, is assumed that training samples are
identical, it is reasonable to exclude the sample size from the comparison criteria. Since
regression trees and neural networks are graphs, when determining the number of
configurable parameters of such models, it seems appropriate to take into account the
fact that link is considered to be absent if its weight is zero. Thus, it is needed to
exclude weights equal to zero from the number of configured model parameters.</p>
      <p>At the same time, various synthesized models can use not all of the features
presented in the sample. Therefore, the number of features used in the model should be
considered as an important peculiarity when comparing them.</p>
      <p>Based on these considerations, we define the integral information criterion (8):

I IC  1 
</p>
      <p>N ' Nw  Nw0  eE / Emax ,</p>
      <p>N Nwmax 
where N&gt;0, N ' N , N wmax &gt; 0, N w  N wmax , N w0  N w , Nw=0 is a number of
adjustable model parameters equal to zero, N max is a maximum possible number of
adjustw
able model parameters in the set of compared models, Emax is a maximal model error
in the set of compared models ( Emax &gt;0) , E is an average model error per instance
( E  0 ) calculated by the formula (9):</p>
      <p>E 
.</p>
      <p>(8)
(9)</p>
      <p>The IIC criterion will take values in the range from zero to one. The smaller will be
its value, the worse will be the model, and the more will be it value, the better will be
the model.
8</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-8">
      <title>Experiments and results</title>
      <p>The proposed methods and indicators characterizing their quality were implemented
as software and experimentally investigated in solving the problem of modeling the
indicator of children's health.</p>
      <p>In the unfavorable environmental situation in large industrial centers, it is relevant
to study the effect of environmental pollution on the health of the population and,
above all, children, since they are more susceptible to the adverse effects of
environmental factors compared with adults. Since Zaporizhzhia is one of the most
anthropogenically polluted large industrial cities of Ukraine, it is possible on its example to
study the influence of various factors on the state of children's health.</p>
      <p>The initial sample was collected as a set of instances each of which was a set of
values of diagnostic features characterized environmental, medical-genetic, and social
factors for the corresponding child [28]. The list of input features (commonly related
for ecological and social conditions) is shown in the Table 1. The fragment of
collected data sample is presented in the Table 2.</p>
      <p>The index of regulatory mechanisms characterizing the degree of centralization of
heart rhythm control was used as an indicator of children's health (model output y). It
was computed based on features characterizing medical state of patients
(electrocardiographic data) using the formula (10):
y </p>
      <p>AMo
2VAR  Mo
,
(10)
where AMo (%) is a mode of amplitude – the proportion of R-R intervals that
corresponds to the mode value (it reflects the stabilizing effect of the centralization of
cardiac rhythm control, which is mainly due to the influence of the sympathetic part of
the vegetative nervous system), Mo (ms) is a mode that characterizes the values of the
duration of R-R intervals that are most typical and correspond to the most probable
the level of functioning of the sinusoidal node of the blood circulation system at the
moment (the physiological value of the index is to determine the activity of the
humoral channel of regulation of the cardiac rhythm), VAR (ms) is a variation scale that
characterizes the difference between the largest and the smallest duration of R-R
intervals (it reflects the overall effect of regulating the rhythm of the vegetative nervous
system and indicates the maximum amplitude of fluctuations of R-R intervals and
also is substantially related with the state of the parasympathetic part of the vegetative
nervous system, although under certain conditions, with a significant amplitude of
slow waves, more depends on the state of subcortical nerve centers than on the tone of
the parasympathetic vegetative nervous system).</p>
      <p>Since in this case it is important not only to build a model of quantitative
dependence, but also to ensure its subsequent use for analyzing the dependency and the
significance of each feature, the most rational approach is to use the cluster-regression
approximation method, which allows to synthesize logically transparent structured
neural models.</p>
      <p>On the basis of the training sample [28] the children's health indicator dependency
models were constructed using various methods. The results of the experiments are
presented in the Table 3.</p>
      <p>The results of the conducted experiments have confirmed the operability and
practical applicability of the developed methods and the software.</p>
      <p>The results of the experiments presented in the Table 3 show that the proposed
cluster regression approximation method allows to obtain models that are comparable
in accuracy with models constructed by other methods. Also, the proposed indicator
allows to compare regression, neural network and cluster regression models, as well
as models based on regression trees.</p>
      <p>The highest level of error has linear regression and two-layer feed-forward neural
network with a small number of nodes. This can be explained by that such models
have lack of adjusted parameters to extract knowledge from the given data sample.</p>
      <p>
        Model type and training method
Multidimensional linear regression
(first order polynomial),
LevenbergMarquardt method [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref20">20</xref>
        ]
Multidimensional linear regression
(second order polynomial),
LevenbergMarquardt method [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref20">20</xref>
        ]
Regression tree, Breiman method [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ]
Single-layer perceptron, Widrow-Hoff
method [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ]
Two-layer feed-forward neural network
with 10 neurons in a hidden layer,
Levenberg-Marquardt method [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref20">20</xref>
        ]
Two-layer feed-forward neural network
with 20 neurons in a hidden layer,
Levenberg-Marquardt method [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref20">20</xref>
        ]
Two-layer feed-forward neural network
with 30 neurons in a in hidden layer,
method [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref20">20</xref>
        ]
Cluster-regression model [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ]
Regression tree based on a
clusterregression (proposed in the paper)
      </p>
      <p>N '
35
35
34
35
35
35
35
33
33</p>
      <p>Nw
36
1296
1732
36
371
741
1111
825
825</p>
      <p>The lowest level of error has feed-forward neural networks with 20 and 30 neurons
in a hidden layer. This can be explained by that such models have enough number of
adjusted parameters to extract knowledge from the given data sample.</p>
      <p>
        The lowest level of information criterion has a regression tree constructed by the
Breiman's method [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ]. This can be explained by that a classic regression tree is a very
rough method, which replaces regression with classification.
      </p>
      <p>The highest level of information criterion has a regression tree based on a
clusterregression approximation. This can be explained by that final model contains a set of
partial regression models for clusters, so it is more accurate in comparison with
classical Breiman regression trees and has abilities similar to neural network models. But
in comparison with feed-forward networks the proposed cluster-regression
approximation model is slightly less accurate. This may be explained by that the proposed
method seeks to reduce the number of features and simplify partial models, as well as
to make their weights more contrast. This inevitably leads to the loss of information.
However, a slight loss of accuracy leads to a simpler and more convenient model for
subsequent analysis.</p>
      <p>
        In contrast to the traditional methods of regression model constructing [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1 ref2">1, 2</xref>
        ],
which build a model based on a function of a single form for the entire feature space,
the proposed method forms a hierarchical combination of partial models.
      </p>
      <p>
        In contrast to the known methods of regression tree constructing [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7 ref8">7, 8</xref>
        ], the leaf
nodes of which contain average values of the output feature for clusters, the proposed
method forms a tree consisting of partial models for clusters, which allows to provide
the greater accuracy of the model.
      </p>
      <p>
        In contrast to traditional methods of neural network model building based on
feedforward layered networks [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3 ref4">3, 4</xref>
        ], which build a single model for the entire feature
space, the proposed method forms a hierarchical combination of partial models.
      </p>
      <p>This allows to recommend the proposed methods and the software implementing
them for use in practice for solving the model building problems of quantitative
dependencies on precedents.</p>
      <p>The quality indicators of models presented in this paper do not take into account the
properties of training samples [26-27, 29-31]. Therefore, in further studies, it seems
appropriate to study the effect of sample properties on model quality indicators, as well
as to develop model quality indicators, universal for a wide class of computational
intelligence models, taking into account the properties of training samples. Also in the
process of constructing a cluster regression approximation, it seems appropriate in further
studies to study the choice of the number of clusters and the cluster analysis method
taking into account the quality indicators of training samples.
9</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-9">
      <title>Conclusion</title>
      <p>The problem of quantitative dependence model building based on precedents is
addressed in the paper.</p>
      <p>A tree-cluster-regression approximation method is proposed. It for a given training
sample builds a tree for hierarchical clustering of instances, the leaf nodes of which
correspond to clusters, for each cluster the method builds a partial model of
dependency on learning sample instances, that fell into the cluster, trying to provide the
smallest complexity of the model and uses a set of the most informative features of
the smallest length. This allows to ensure acceptable accuracy of the model, high
levels of interpretability and data generalization, to reduce the complexity of the
model, and to simplify its implementation.</p>
      <p>The indicator allowing to quantitatively characterize the quality for models of
different types (neural and neuro-fuzzy networks, regression models, regression trees
and cluster-regression models) has been proposed The proposed indicator allows to
compare different models of dependencies, as well as to form on its basis the criteria
for the model quality that can be used for training and simplification, as well as for
the model selection.</p>
      <p>The software implementing the proposed methods has been developed and studied
at the children health index modeling problem solving. The conducted experiments
have confirmed the performance of the developed software and allow to recommend
it for use in practice.</p>
      <p>The prospects for further research are to test the proposed methods on a wider set
of applied problems, to study the dependence of the speed and accuracy (error) of
methods work on the sample volume and the feature number in the original sample.
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Los Alamitos, vol. 6, p. 4393-4398 (1999)
23. Akaike, H.: A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic</p>
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24. Schwarz, G. E.: Estimating the dimension of a model. Annals of Statistics. vol. 6 (2): 461–
464 (1978)
25. Hannan, E. J., Quinn, B. G.: The determination of the order of an autoregression. Journal
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https://doi.org/10.3103/S1060992X17040099
27. Subbotin, S.: Methods of data sample metrics evaluation based on fractal dimension for
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