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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Estimating the Duration of Blockchain-Based Business Processes Using Simulation</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Stephan Haarmann</string-name>
          <email>fstephan.haarmann@hpi.deg</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Hasso Plattner Institute, University of Potsdam</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Potsdam</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="DE">Germany</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <fpage>24</fpage>
      <lpage>31</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>Information systems automate parts of business processes and support involved stakeholders. Recently, blockchains and other distributed ledgers are considered to extend the possibilities for automating inter-organizational processes: these technologies o er a new paradigm for such processes as they may automatically enforce contractual agreements without a trusted third party. Although existing research shows that inter-organizational processes can be enacted based on blockchains, fundamental question, such as What is the impact of blockchain on the process?, remain open. This work focuses on analyzing the duration of blockchain-based inter-organizational processes using simulation techniques.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>Business Process Management Blockchain Simulation</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>Introduction</title>
      <p>
        With business process management (BPM), enterprises can structure, document,
and enact their processes [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15">15</xref>
        ]. At the core of BPM, process models (e.g.,
modeled using the Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ]) can capture
process elements, such as tasks and data, the elements' relations (e.g., causal
and data dependencies), as well as the process' interactions.
      </p>
      <p>
        Process engines use various technologies: databases store process relevant
data, mobile devices enable ubiquitous access, IoT technologies establish
cyberphysical connections, and more. Recently, the BPM community researches the
application of blockchain, especially in inter-organizational processes [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ]. The
blockchain technology can enforce the execution of programs by creating
transparency and integrity, so collaborating parties can rely on the blockchain as a
source of truth. Most research focuses on the blockchain-based execution and
mediation of processes: in a setting in which mutual distrust prevents any
participant from acting as a central coordinator, authority, or platform provider,
blockchain technologies can replace a trusted third party [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        However, for some inter-organizational business processes, blockchain-based
solutions are ine cient and not viable. Some methods employ model-driven
development to speed up the development cycle, but expertise and manual e ort
is required for blockchain-speci c con gurations. For enterprises it is di cult to
decide whether a blockchain is applicable and whether it is e cient enough to
be viable. Additionally, most of the current solutions are tailored to one speci c
blockchain implementation (e.g., Ethereum [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">16</xref>
        ] or Hyperledger Fabric [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ]), but
each technology has di erent characteristics and the implications for the
process vary. Process analysis techniques, such as process simulation, can provide
insights to support decision makers.
      </p>
      <p>In this paper, we sketch an approach for analyzing the duration of
blockchainbased business processes using simulation. The analysis is based on a con gurable
model of the blockchain's behavior, which can be integrated in process models
to simulate the blockchain's impact on the process execution. Combined with
general information (e.g., the technology's security guarantees), the results help
businesses to make an informed decision about whether to apply blockchain.</p>
      <p>The remainder of this paper starts with an example and an overview of works
on blockchain-based BPM (Section 2). In Section 3, we present our approach of
estimating the duration of blockchain-based processes. Finally, we discuss our
approach and list directions for future work (Section 4).
2</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Blockchains for BPM</title>
      <p>
        In BPM, blockchains are mostly applied to inter-organizational (collaborative)
business processes [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ]. Initially, blockchain was proposed to power the
cryptocurrency Bitcoin [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ]. It supports simple money transfer and advanced concepts such
as escrows.
      </p>
      <p>The so called 2nd generation of blockchains supports smart contracts:
programs that are executed by the nodes of the blockchain network. Just as the
blockchain-stored ledger, smart contracts are tamper-proofed, transparent, and
permanent. These properties guarantee that the program is executed when it
is called (stopping the execution requires manipulating the ledger); thus, smart
contracts can enforce contractual agreements. Since inter-organizational process
models describe an agreement on responsibilities (by whom and in which order
are actions performed?), smart contracts can enforce them.
2.1</p>
      <sec id="sec-2-1">
        <title>Related Work</title>
        <p>
          The BPM community focuses mostly on the blockchains with smart contract
capabilities. The degree of blockchain integration can vary from simple
monitoring tools to blockchain-based process engines: Weber et al. demonstrated
blockchain-based monitoring and execution of inter-organizational business
processes [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
          ]. The tool Caterpillar by Lopez-Pintado et al. extends this idea to an
Ethereum-based process engine | the work takes classical process models [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
          ].
Similar works with di erent foci exist: Sturm et al. focus on the exibility of
processes [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13</xref>
          ], Madsen et al. on declarative processes [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
          ], and Hull et al. on data
centric processes [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
          ].
        </p>
        <p>
          Generating smart contracts from process models reduces the development
time. However, blockchain-based process execution may have non-functional
requirements, i.e., temporal constraints. The mentioned works help to estimate
aspects such as the duration; however, this still involves manual con guration
and a blockchain setup. The same holds for the work by Yasaweerasinghelage et
al.: their approach uses process simulation to send transaction to a blockchain
in order to estimate its latency [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17">17</xref>
          ].
2.2
        </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-2">
        <title>Motivating Example</title>
        <p>Buyer
Transfer Money
to Escrow</p>
        <p>Bank
15-20 min</p>
        <p>Bank
Transfer Money</p>
        <p>Buyer
3 d*
3 d*
0 min</p>
        <p>Bank
Inform about</p>
        <p>Escrow
Auctioneers
1 min</p>
        <p>Expert
Cancel Escrow</p>
        <p>Bank
15-30 min</p>
        <p>Bank
Transfer Money</p>
        <p>
          Auctioneers
3 d*
10 min*
sent and being detected by the initiator of the next task (annotated on edges) [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
          ]
and time between detecting a message and sending the next one (annotated on
tasks). For the former, we lift the assumption that interactions in choreographies
are timeless.
3
        </p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Analyzing Blockchain-Based Latency</title>
      <p>A blockchain is a decentralized system for reaching consensus in a peer-to-peer
network. Due to its nature, blockchains introduce additional latency:
transactions are submitted, shared, veri ed and processed, and eventually incorporated
in the consensus. Afterwards, participants are accountable for their transactions.</p>
      <p>Inter-organizational business processes can employ blockchain in various ways.
For the art-dealing example, we consider blockchain-based process execution:
The bank is replaced by a smart contract and all interactions are logged by a
smart contract, which enforces the right ordering of the actions. The triggering
participant sends a transaction at the end of each interaction, i.e., the auctioneers
send the transaction for the shipment after handing over the artwork.</p>
      <p>The transactions trigger the progression of the on-chain process instance. The
network managing the ledger processes a transaction in steps: a local transaction
is shared with the network but remains pending, a pending transaction is mined
(included in a block that extends the ledger), and the mined block with all
its transactions is con rmed (succeeded by a certain number of blocks). The
duration of each step depends mostly on the blockchain and the underlying
network: in Bitcoin, a transaction needs a couple of seconds to spread, and a new
block is appended approximately every 10 minutes; for Ethereum, transactions
di use the network similarly fast; however, a block is added every 15 seconds. We
assume that a transaction is included in the rst block that is mined after the
transaction became available to the network (the reality may be more complex
and in uenced by transaction fees, network load, and throughput).</p>
      <p>In most cases, a participant waits for all preceding transactions to be
conrmed. However, if the same participant triggers two subsequent interactions,
the participant does not need con rmation of his or her own action.
Additionally, if an interaction is physically, such as shipping the artwork, the transaction
must be con rmed and the interaction must be completed.</p>
      <p>Figure 2 partially shows a timed Petri net representation of the
inter-organizational process. Each interaction task of the choreography model is translated into
corresponding transitions: the ring of such a transition indicates the completion
of the respective interaction. It progresses the state by producing an unnamed
token for the control ow. Further, each interaction puts a token identifying the
interaction on the Transaction Local place. The net includes the
blockchainbased transaction processing: a transaction is sent, di uses the network, is
included in a block, and eventually the block is con rmed. The transition Mine
Block consumes all tokens on Transaction Pending and produces respective
tokens on Transaction Included. Each interaction depends on the previous
one; thus, the respective transition can only re if the previous transaction is
....</p>
      <p>Artwok
Deliverd</p>
      <p>Transaction</p>
      <p>Local
&lt;0.5– 1.5d&gt;
Request
Assessment
txRA</p>
      <p>...</p>
      <p>ArtworkAssessed</p>
      <p>ArtworkisFake
txRA
&lt;diffusion-time&gt;</p>
      <p>Diffuse
Network</p>
      <p>*
TransactionPending
&lt;1.5– 2.5d&gt;
Return
Artwork
txRA2
&lt;interblock-time&gt;</p>
      <p>Mine</p>
      <p>Block
TimeofLastBlock</p>
      <p>ArtworkReturned</p>
      <p>txRA2
...
in the place Transaction Confirmed. This requirement is represented by the
labels on the respective arcs. In the example, the expert is performing two
actions in a row, and does not need con rmation of the rst transaction. The
transitions with label Cancel Escrow represent the di erent options: the escrow
can be canceled immediately after Return Artwork; thus, there is a transition
for Cancel Escrow for each possible state of the Return Artwork transaction
(local, pending, included and con rmed).</p>
      <p>
        Each transition is annotated with ranges for the duration of the respective
choreography task/blockchain action [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
        ]. We derived the time by assuming 8h
per day. A transition is annotated with the sum of the choreographies task
duration and the communication (outgoing arch), for example Return Artwork
is annotated with &lt;1.5{2.5d&gt; which is the sum of the duration 0.5d and the
communication 1{2d. While the duration of a choreography task is domain and
instance speci c, the duration for a blockchain action depends mostly on the
implementation. For this purpose, we introduce a blockchain con guration: 1. the
di usion-time | the time until a transaction is known by the network (e.g.,
around 15 sec for Bitcoin [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ]1); 2. the inter-blocktime | the time between the
mining of two blocks (e.g., approximately 10 min for Bitcoin, about 15 sec for
Ethereum2 ) 3. the con rmation-count | the number of blocks that follow
an included transaction until it is consider con rmed (e.g., Bitcoin recommends
a con rmation-count of 6, Ethereum one of 12, and most private blockchains
use 0). These parameters are set according to the used blockchain. The product
of inter-blocktime and con rmation-count denotes the time between mining a
transaction and con rming a transaction.
      </p>
      <p>The Petri net semantics equipped with temporal information of the
choreography and a blockchain con guration allow a simulation of the blockchain-based
1 Bitcoin di usion-time: http://bitcoinstats.com/network/propagation/ (02/06/2019)
2 Ethereum inter-blocktime : https://etherscan.io/chart/blocktime (02/06/2019)
inter-organizational process. We use CPNTools3 to model4 all aspects of the
Petri net and simulate the process quantitatively and manually step-through
simulation techniques. Running 100 instances, we derived an average duration
of about 8 days for the version not using blockchain and about 3 days for a
blockchain-based version (0 min di usion-time, 10 min inter-blocktime, 6 blocks
con rmation-count; duration ranges where simulated via a binomial
distribution). While the blockchain causes delays, it enables process changes that reduce
the overall duration: in the example, the replacement of the bank improved
the process performance. By simply adjusting the blockchain con guration, it is
possible to estimate other blockchain implementations.
4</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Discussion and Future Work</title>
      <p>In some cases, blockchain technologies may remove the need for trusted
intermediaries in inter-organizational business processes. However, such solutions have
drawbacks: the distributed nature limits the throughput and causes latency. We
sketched a method to analyze the duration of blockchain-based processes.</p>
      <p>The analysis relies on formal semantics, domain speci c information, and a
con guration for a certain blockchain implementation. The con guration
comprises three parameters; thus, adapting to di erent blockchains is simple. Through
simulation, the analysis estimates the duration of blockchain-based processes
with little e ort compared to prototypical and model-driven implementations.
However, the impact of blockchain-based implementations on processes is not
always signi cant: especially processes that are executed frequently and that are
highly automated might be slowed down by blockchains. Processes that contain
various manual and physical tasks may be delayed insigni cantly by blockchains
or even speed up as manual tasks are automated or third parties are replaced
by smart contracts.</p>
      <p>
        The presented work is in an early state. In future work, we will support
BPMN choreography models by integrating our approach into a business process
simulator, which takes a blockchain con guration as well as an enriched BPMN
choreography model as an input. Additionally, di erent ways of blockchain-based
process support exist: we want to investigate existing solutions (such as
Caterpillar) to estimate di erent implementations and paradigms. Furthermore, the
blockchain behavior can be modeled and con gured on di erent granularity
levels: currently we do not consider that blocks are limited in size, the processing
of transactions might be prioritized based on transaction fees, and that block
propagation depends on various factors [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>Additionally, execution time of processes is only one aspect a ected by the
underlying technology. Public blockchains include a cryptocurrency: a
transaction has costs depending on its priority and payload. This may or may not have
a signi cant impact on the overall costs of a process. Related to both costs and
3 CPNTools homepage: https://cpntools.org (1/7/2019)
4 Models and results: https://owncloud.hpi.de/index.php/s/iGVqu7WkgMYXIpW
duration is the throughput of blockchains: when a blockchain is used for multiple
purposes or by many participants, transactions may remain pending longer.</p>
      <p>
        Analyzing various aspect of blockchain-based processes requires a detailed
understanding of the technologies as well as the con guration points. In future
work, we will explore such behavioral properties and derive a formal model of
blockchains that can be con gured towards speci c implementations. Detailed
models can provide insights in blockchain's behavior as well as its impact on
business processes beyond latencies. Such models equipped with empirical data
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
        ] may lead to higher precision in simulating the processes.
      </p>
    </sec>
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