Introduction

Currently, the mass media has become the main tool for information dissemination that affect individual consciousness and subconscious and, as a consequence, the public consciousness. Public consciousness should be considered as a social phenomenon whose main function is to influence the audience through semantic and evaluative information transmitted by mass media channels. Moreover, public consciousness is a mechanism for actualizing information through various means of communication. Therefore, mass media influence does not always have a negative effect, since in the globalized world it is difficult to imagine human life without newspapers, social networks and other mass media. However, on the other hand, some individuals, for gaining their own advantages, use mass media as an instrument of influence on society.

Analysis of known approaches for evaluation the manipulative influence

The research in mass media manipulative influence field was engaged by large number of scientists, both Ukrainian and foreign, among them: Ivanov, V., Nesteryak,Yu., McQuail, D., Schiller, G., Noelle-Neumann, E. etc. In Peleschyshyn, A. and Guminskyi, R. scientific researches, the description of informational environment of the virtual community in social networks was described; a model of internal informational environment and the discussion model of the virtual community were developed and detailed; on the basis of a formal model of the informational environment of the virtual community, taking into account the quality of information content, the indicator of information threats is determined [1][2][3]. The presented models allow to organize the detection and counteraction of the information threat in social networks and provide the information-psychological safety of a person in a social network. However, a significant disadvantage of that models is the impossibility of their evaluation.

A human activity model and human joint activities model in the information space was proposed by Shiyan, A. On the basis of proposed models, a human protection method from negative informational and psychological influence on the basis of the peculiarities of its activity was presented [4][5][6]. However, directly, the formal protection model from manipulative influence was not highlighted, as a consequence, is not possible to evaluate mathematically the effect.

In Gubanov, D. studies [7][8], an overview of the influence models in social networks was presented, the main classes of models in social networks were considered and the correspondence between classes of models and parameters of the modeling object was established. An analysis of these models allows to study the relationships between objects in a social group and the dependence of information influence on individuals and public opinion.

The formalized model for detecting PR-influence through publications in the Internet was developed by Ryabyy, M., Khatyan, O. and Bagatsky, S. [9]. According to [9], PR-influence is the mass media manipulative influence. However, this model allows to identify the impact, but do not assess it. Therefore, the developed model can be used as an initial stage for the development of a further evaluation model. Proceeding from the above, a detailed analysis of manipulative influences models was conducted [10].

The analysis was based on such basic criteria (Table 1): IEtaking into account the information environment influence; MMItaking into account methods of manipulative influence; EEtaking into account the links between information environment elements; FDthe formal description of models and methods; CIEtaking into account the content of information environment; TChtaking into account the content transfer channel; CAtaking into account the content adequacy.

As a result of multicriteria analysis, it is established that studied models and methods have certain limitations as to practical application for solving various kind of tasks of information and psychological security. It is found that the evaluation method of mass media manipulative influence is only then effective and adequate in case it meets all the specified criteria. The paper purpose is to develop an evaluation method of mass media manipulative influence, which will allow to calculate the quantitative parameters of their influence on public opinion.

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Theoretical background developed method

The proposed evaluation method of mass media manipulative influence on public opinion is realized in 8 stages (Fig. 1): 1) Evaluation the financial costs; 2) Ranking of reasons by the degree of their danger; 3) Determination the objectives of the manipulation campaign (hereinafter -KMp); 4) Determination of the KMp tasks; 5) Determination of strategies for the KMp implementation; 6) Selection the mass media for manipulation; 7) Selection the manipulation method; 8) Estimation of manipulative influence. Input data for the method are: the set of reasons for conducting KMp; the set of dislocation places; the set of goals for KMp; the set of focus groups; set of criteria for estimating parameters; the set of strategies for KMp; the set of mass media; the set of manipulation methods and the set of «weight by criteria». Output data: list of selected causes, goals, criteria, tasks, strategies, methods, mass media; values of magnitude and effectiveness of manipulative influence. The realization of this method allows to evaluate the magnitude of mass media manipulative influence on public opinion [13].

Evaluation the effectiveness of manipulative actions is the preparatory stage for conducting the campaign. This stage is only necessary for the customerto evaluate the financial efficiency of KMp. At this stage, from the whole mass media database it is necessary to select those mass media which, in the opinion of the expert, are suitable for the implementation of manipulative influence. First of all, it is necessary to determine the economic effect of advertising in selected mass media:

 , 100 DT PD ТH E U U    

where Ethe economic effect of advertising; D Тadditional trade turnover under the advertising influence; Т Нtrade margin on goods (measured in % to the realization price); Р Uadvertising costs; and experts choose those reasons (using voting method), which, in their opinion, require a KMp . After that experts go to step 2.

Database of reasons

Stage 1 -Evaluation the financial costs on KMp Stage 2 -Ranking of reasons by the degree of their danger

Database of regionsi i i i i v v A v A Kr A Kr x i v a     

The list of the most dangerous reasons , ,..., 1 ,

i i i n A A A x x x 3, 2, 1, l p lp l p l p if a a f if a a if a a           R I T r r i j i r j t j I u t c t T r R            1 2 1 { } { , ,..., }, , 1, . c i c i i C C C C C i c      C C 1 2 1 { } { , ,..., }, , 1, . g i g i i G G G G G i g      G G 1 2 1 { } { , ,..., }, , 1, . r i r i i Kr Kr Kr Kr Kr i r      Kr Kr 1 2 1 { } { , ,..., }, , 1, . y i y i i A A A A A i y      A A i L 1 2 1 { } { , ,..., }, , 1, . m i m i i L L L L L i m      L L 1 2 , ... r Kr Kr Kr 1 2 , ... g G G G lp f i G 1 2 , ... n r r r 1 2 , ... r Kr Kr Kr i i C A  , i i i i C L A L   i L i Z . i i L Z  1 2 1 { } { , ,..., }, , 1, . z i z i i Z Z Z Z Z i z      Z Z k h

For Z and Z

M M M M M M M M M i x j e M M         M , i j M Ф  i i i i i i i i R Z G R Z G R Z a c b  . i i i i i i i i i Z p Z G pR Z R Z G R d e b c     , , , 0 . kj hj kj g g g g g hj j j r r if r r p k h m if not                1 1 , , ,.

0 .

g g J J kj hj kj h g g g g j j j j j r r if r r p k h p k h m if not                           , , , , , ; , 0 . g g g g g D p k h p h k if p k h p h k k h if not                   * * * 1, , 1,.., 1, , max 1 , ,.k k m k k m l l l k A D A min max p k h p h k                                          1 1, 2 2, 3 3, ,1, , 1,

,

i i i i j j j j k k k i I j J M            . , q B q Ф max      , max ( ) , q q Ф H B q q C B      1 , k k k i i i i D f x x      Database of mass media   1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 , . , k k k k k k l l l l l l k k l l l k k k k k k k l l l l l l k k l l w w if w w x x x x E w w if w w x x x x                              11, 12, 1 21, 22, 2 ( 1, ) ... ... ... ( ) 1, 2, b r ij b i a j b a a ab h h h H h h h h h h h    

Fig. 1. Evaluation method of mass media manipulative influence on public opinion

Step 2 -Ranking of reasons by the degree of their danger. That is, for each possible i reason (for the period of preparation and implementation of the KMp) in r regions, it is necessary to evaluate the financial cost ( i u ) for a manipulative attack on the next ratio:

1 1 1 ( ) ,1, ; 1, ; 1,R J T rr i j i r j t u t c r R j J t T           

, where ()

r j t



the amount of mass media of j type (social networks, newspaper, TV etc), for the period t in region r , r i cthe cost of one mass media of j type in region r .

Step 3 -Definition of financial constraints. At this step, it is necessary to determine financial constraints of conducting KMp for reason: Stage 2 -Ranking of reasons by the degree of their danger. During the ranking of reasons by the degree of their danger, each expert are conducting pairwise comparison of reasons by the degree of their danger for KMp (step 1) and create the matrix r H (step 2) for each r region. The expert's mark define as r ij h , where iis the expert number, jthe reason number, rthe region number:

g i g i i ig      G G G G G G G , (step 2

) and criteria ( Kr ): , that is, the parameters by which the objectives and tasks of the KMp will be selected. As a result of the Stage 3 implementation, will be formed objectives, the focus groups who are the objects of influence are identified and the criteria (for choosing objectives and tasks) are selected.

Stage 4 -Determination of the KMp tasks. At the step 1, experts form a set of tasks ( A ), which are connected to the objectives of the KMP (the objectives were identified in step 3), for assessing the KMP's tasks: 1 { } { , ,..., }, , 1, .

y i y i i iy      A A A A A A A

At the step 2, the proportion of agreed positive scores

i v A

x to the criteria of each v task of each agent i A according to all the criteria is calculated:

, 1, . ii ii i v v A v A Kr A Kr x i v a    

As a result of Stage 4, the tasks to be achieved during KMp are formed.

Stage 5 -Determination of strategies for the KMp implementation. The objectives of manipulating different groups are made at different times i t and with different benefits. In accordance with the formulated objectives and tasks their strategies ( L ) ,

i i i i  C L A

L are selected and implemented. At the step 1, from the set of strategies experts select the strategy that require of the KMp conducting:

12 1 { } { , ,..., }, , 1, . m i m i i im      L L L L L L L

At the step 2, the list of strategies are ranked: .

,

lp lp l p lp if a a f if a a if a a           

As a result of Stage 5, it is formed a number of strategies (possibly more than 1) on which KMp will be conducted.

Stage 6 -Selection the mass media for manipulation. At the stage 6, it is necessary to choose mass media ( Z ) which will be used during manipulative influences [14].

Then, it is necessary to conduct an analytical study of mass media with further evaluation of the information influence effectiveness. At the step 1, a set of mass media is formed:

12 1 { } { , ,..., }, , 1, z i z i i iz      Z Z Z Z Z Z Z .

Step 2evaluation the effectiveness of manipulative actions can be presented as:

i ii i ii i i R ZG R ZG R Z a c b  , where i ii R ZG a -a score of z mass media in g focus group in r region, 1, , zZ  1, , gG  1, ,rR i i R Z

ba score of z mass media of population in r -region,

i ii R ZG c

a compliance index of z mass media in g focus group in r region. Thereafter, the mass media price matrix is created and stored in database of manipulation system: After that, an important action is the calculation of «cost per thousand» readers:

.

i i i i i i i i i Zp Z G pR Z R Z G R d e bc  

According to the different price in different cities (regions), the «cost per thousand» quantity will difference. So, ind index can be presented as

          

where j mthe rating scale according to the j criteria, , kj g j g h rrthe value of the , kh AA options according to the j criteria in g focus group. The ratio of advantages over a pair of alternatives ( , kh AA ) taking into account all considered criteria can be defined as:

    11 , ; ,, 0. gg JJ kj hj kj hj j g g j j g g j rr if r r p k h p k h m if not            



The ratio of the dominance k A alternative over

          , ,, , , ; , 0.g g g g D g p k h p h k if p k h p h k kh if not         

The best alternative corresponds to the condition:

        1,.., * * * 1, ,1, , max 1 , ,

.

km k k m k ll lk A D A min max p k h p h k                        

As a result of Stage 6, the mass media which according to the criteria has the highest rating will be chosen. Moreover, isn't necessarily it will be one mass media for all disposition places. It is also possible to choose different mass media for different disposition places. Stage 7 -Selection the manipulation method. In database the manipulative influence methods ( M ) are stored. These methods can be presented as: In database all methods are separated by certain characteristics and used by different mass media. Furthermore, each agent chooses the most effective method from the database that, in agent's opinion can use by mass media. After that, the list of criteria for which the method selecting are conducting will be formed.

1 } { x i i   MM 11 12 1 21 22 2 11 }} , ,. { { {{ },{ .., }, , ,.., xe ij e e ij    M M M M M M M 12 , ,...,1, , 1, ) ,.

 

1 1,2 2, 3 3, , 1, , 1, ,i i i i j j j j k k k i j J M I         where 1 k «the value» of l criteria ( 1, 2, 3 l  ), i ij

criterion value of j operative manipulative influences method according to i strategy for l criteria. As a result of Stage 7, manipulative influence methods which will be implemented by the mass media chosen in 6 will be chosen.

Stage 8 -Estimation of manipulative influence. If the initial evaluation of g focus group is presented as g b ,then the task of manipulation is to change the group's opinion to , , ,

g g g g b q q Q g N   

where g qthe change of initial opinion, thus g q is the controlling influence.

As a result of the sequence of operational manipulative influences, the final opinion in some focus groups is formed: where () H received benefits (profit, votes in elections, change in certain officials or government, etc.) by an organization in whose interests the manipulative influence is conducted, which depends on the change of public opinion, () C costs for manipulative actions. The task of management is to choose an acceptable management method that maximizes efficiency   . ,

q Bq Ф max 

Then the value of operational influence can be determined by the ratio

i D     1 , k k k i i i f x x   

where   k i f a function (table or algorithm) that reflects the difference in scores

1 kk ii xx  

in the amount of operational influence, for example, the volume and number of compromising newspaper articles or news releases on the TV channel. If

1 kk ii xx   , then    1 . k k k i i i i D f x x   

The effectiveness l of influence l E in period k  is determined in different ways, in particular, by the ratio:

  1 11 1 111 1 ) ( ) ) ,( , , () ( kkk k k k ll l l l l kk ll lk kk k k k k ll l l l l kk ll ww if w w x x xx E ww if w w x x xx                         where k l w -influence assessment in the period k  , k l

xthe magnitudes of the produced influence of l type in the period k  , 1, lL  influence type.

Experimental study & discussion based on example of Ukrainian mass media

Considering the network-centered concept involves data analyzing and gathering from different regions for obtaining results on manipulative influences, it is proposed to calculate the influence of the mass media and its efficiency as an average of 3 regions for 4 newspapers and 3 manipulation methods selected by experts on previous stages. The influence of selected mass media presented in Tab. 2, 4, 6, 8; the effectiveness of influence showed in Tab. 3, 5, 7, 9. The value of operational influence will be determined by the number of articles (expert estimate). The tables present the influence of mass media and the value of manipulative influence.

In fig. 2 graphically depicts the ratio of the value of operational influence, that is, the number of articles, to the value of the effectiveness of manipulative influence.

Fig. 2. Effectiveness of mass media influence

The smallest value of operational influence, namely, with the smallest number of articles that used manipu-lative methods, showed the mass media "Facty": when the number of articles -2, the effectiveness of manipulative influence equal to 28%. The other mass media "Segodny", when the number of articles -2; the effectiveness of manipulative influence equal to 14%.

Conclusions

In the paper the quantitative evaluation method of mass media manipulative influence on public opinion was developed. The method by means of evaluating financial expenditures, defining goals, objectives and strategies for manipulating, selecting mass media and classified methods of manipulation, based on the generated databases of causes, goals of the criteria, focus groups and mass media, allows to calculate the quantitative parameters that characterize the magnitude of manipulative mass media influences on public opinion. This method, in compare with analogs, could quantity evaluate a manipulative influence which realized by modern mass media and using manipulation influence methods on public opinion. The obtained results will be useful in information security field for evaluation harmful mass media influence on public opinion or on consciousness individuals. In the next research, it is going to conduct an experimental study of the developed method for its verification, correctness confirmation, as well as the establishment of the practical application possibility for raising the information and psychological safety level of citizens, society and the state.