=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-2382/ICT4S2019_paper_34
|storemode=property
|title=Exploring Future Skills Shortage in the Transition to Localised and Low-Carbon Energy Systems
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2382/ICT4S2019_paper_34.pdf
|volume=Vol-2382
|authors=Yael Zekaria,Ruzanna Chitchyan
|dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/ict4s/ZekariaC19
}}
==Exploring Future Skills Shortage in the Transition to Localised and Low-Carbon Energy Systems==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2382/ICT4S2019_paper_34.pdf
Exploring Future Skills Shortage in the Transition
to Localised and Low-Carbon Energy Systems
Yael Zekaria Ruzanna Chitchyan
Department of Computer Science Department of Computer Science
University of Bristol University of Bristol
Bristol, UK Bristol, UK
Email: yz14091@bristol.ac.uk ORCiD: 0000-0001-6293-3445
Email: r.chitchyan@bristol.ac.uk
Abstract—As the climate change pressures mount, the need to in 2015 to supply energy from mainly renewable sources
transition to clean (non-fossil fuel based) energy systems becomes [6]. Robin Hood Energy has saved at least £200 a year
ever more apparent. Such a transition requires availability of for over 100,000 customers and has also seen successes in
trained workers to install and control the new energy systems,
as well as skilled governance and regulation to guide such a major supplying energy outside of Nottingham through partnering
societal change. This paper takes the first steps to explore the with local brands, such as Angelic Energy in Islington. Other
issues related to said skills and training provision, using group examples of successful local energy communities include the
discussions with the UK’s energy researchers and practitioners. It Bethesda hydro-powered project in Wales [7], the Orkney
reports on the areas of currently perceived skills gaps, and argues island’s energy self-sufficiency in Scotland [8], or the PV for
for the need to research on the future skills shortage prediction
and training provision. This work aims to prevent such shortages Schools programme that supplies solar energy generation to
from arising in order to facilitate a successful transition to clean UK schools [9], saving energy bills, carbon emissions, and
energy systems. promoting environment-related education in schools.
Index Terms—energy systems transition; skills gap; skills Yet, all these are relatively small, disconnected projects.
shortage, skills training, low-carbon energy system. In order for the transition to be adopted on a national scale,
resources must be in place that provide the necessary skills,
I. I NTRODUCTION knowledge and most importantly, the societal will to im-
Global energy demand has grown steadily at around 2.4% plement this change. Transition to a nation-wide low-carbon
per year since 1850, nearly all of which has been obtained energy system is not simply about installing some PV or
from fossil fuels. Unsurprisingly, energy generation and distri- wind generation, but it is about the whole-scale change of the
bution is one of the highest greenhouse gas emitting sectors in energy generation, distribution, and use practices: integration
the developed countries (e.g., 3rd in the UK, after industry and of all renewable sources (to address their generally intermittent
transport). Faced with the problems of climate change, most availability i.e. there is no solar generation during the nights);
countries have set targets to decarbonise their energy systems ability to regulate demand (e.g. switching off non-critical
[1], [2]. Realisation of such plans will require substitution of appliances when generation is low, and scheduling energy
fossil fuel-based energy sources with renewable alternatives. use tasks when generation is high, e.g., [10]); willingness to
Yet, the energy system underpins and is tightly intertwined regulate and set policies that foster engagement of all user
with all other sectors of economy and areas of social life: groups with the energy generation and consumption issues;
from high-tech industrial production processes to agriculture; enabling and mandating the transition of the incumbent large
from home heating to transportation. Changing energy systems energy companies to new business models centred around
implies changing the very core of the modern societal life [3]. clean energy sources, etc. All of this requires new kinds of skills
The transition to low-carbon and localised energy systems from the employees, new kinds of jobs from the employers, and
is already under way. The relevant technologies1 have been new kinds of education and training for all.
developed and continue to be improved; government initiatives With appropriate methods, the journey to a more sustainable
provide funding to research and support the transition [4], future can have great potential for the job market. Although
[5]; and several groups have led the way with successful it is critical that the appropriate training of skills is in place
decentralised and community energy projects. One such ex- in order to avoid long lead times and a widening gap between
ample is Robin Hood Energy set up by Nottingham council the demand and supply of the necessary labour.
This paper explores the skills shortages that the transition
1 To name a few: PV panels, wind turbines, tidal and wave energy stations,
to a clean-energy society is likely to face. Section II reviews
anaerobic digestion systems and bore holes for heat storage, batteries and
hydro turbines, electric vehicles and peer-to-peer energy trading platforms, insight from existing literature concerning the causes of a skills
smart controllable appliances for demand response, etc. shortage, how they arise and how they can be tackled. These
issues will be addressed in terms of what they mean for the latter reinforced by the lack of understanding of the system as
energy market, the labour market as well as for policy and a whole: how multiple energy generation methods can work
social change. To relate the findings from the literature to the together and complement each other, the role of legal experts
current state of practice, we carried out several small group- and policy makers in steering the path to change, the im-
based discussions which are outlined in Section III. Here plementation of effective and relevant training and education
we present the emerging topics from these group discussions programmes and how all of these factors come together. The
between interdisciplinary experts on energy systems. Section key risks to the sector, as a result of talent shortages, include
IV concludes this paper with a summary of our findings and decreased efficiency, loss of business and reduced productivity.
a plan of how they will be used in deriving a skills training These consequences will trigger a negative feedback loop
curriculum and skills shortage assessment model. since it is likely that there will be less incentive to work
in the renewable energy industry if it is a failing one. The
II. BACKGROUND
top three methods to attract the right talent, agreed amongst
In this section we review literature relating to the definition hiring managers and professionals, include better training,
of skill shortages and how they can be tackled from three clearer career progression and increased remuneration and
viewpoints: benefits packages. However, remuneration was one of the
1) energy systems; least common reasons for choosing to work in this sector.
2) labour market; A possible explanation could be that the majority of the
3) policy and social change. workforce in the renewable industry are between the ages of
It is relevant to consider this issue from a top-down, 25-34. The concern for the climate is more apparent among
economic approach (labour market) as well as bottom-up, the younger employees who may enter the sector as they wish
industry-specific angle (the energy system). Furthermore, since to take action against global warming rather than for gaining
our lives are centred around energy, we conclude this section “job perks”.
with a discussion of the societal impacts of a skill shortage in A novel solution to deal with skills shortages has been
the transition to a low-carbon economy. implemented by Business in the Community through the Ban
the Box campaign [14]. By engaging with employers on
Background from the Energy Sector specific programmes, the 20% of the UK workforce with
The lack of required skills has been reported as the biggest criminal convictions can be given the support and training to
challenge facing the global renewable energy sector [11]. The close the skills gap.
demand for necessary skills and further training is applicable Over the past decade we have seen a rise in automation
for new graduates of non-specialised STEM courses, those which can be argued to have a positive effect on decreasing the
with relevant skills from other sectors as well as those already skills shortage. Whilst it is true that automation has put many
working in renewable energy in the case that their organisation out of work, with the right systems in place, automation can
develops through digitisation or updated technology. There- allow members of the workforce to engage in less repetitive
fore, it can be said that the onus to fill the skills gap is as tasks and transfer their talent to more technical areas of their
much on employers as it is on external education and training company.
institutions. In summary, factors that should be taken into account in the
A suggested solution for educators would be to create skills shortage assessment model to be developed include the
tailored courses. However, there is less need for specialist view of consumers, employees, employers and educators on
education programmes in renewable energy. Existing STEM the areas where training is necessary, including both technical
subjects provide the necessary foundation for professional skills training and policy-related education. This knowledge
work in this sector [12]. It would be more favourable to have will help in preparing for the changing technological land-
several low-carbon related modules within a higher education scape, as well as in directing the action of policy makers in
course to provide students with the awareness and insight of requesting funding or regulation in specific areas. Contribu-
the benefits of alternative, cleaner energy systems. tions to a skills training curriculum aimed at preventing the
The most recent Global Talent Index Report (GETI) [13] looming skills shortages for energy systems transitions, should
carried out by 17,000 respondents from 162 countries has include both general and tailored STEM courses and project
shown that although there is an obvious skills shortage, the leadership for the proliferation of the low-carbon and localised
most worrying issue for the renewable energy sector is, in energy systems.
fact, the political landscape. A lack of subsidies is of huge
concern to the renewable industry, significantly more so than to Background from the Labour Market
the conventional and better established non-renewable sectors. In economic theory, a skills gap is regarded as a disequi-
However, the skills shortage is a looming crisis that many librium phenomena between the skills available by workers
are also worried about: 60% of respondents believe there is and those demanded of them by employers. Such a gap is
only 5 years to act before it hits. So what talent is lacking? a common cause of structural unemployment. The Oxford
The discipline of Engineering was reported to be in highest dictionary of Economics [15] defines structural unemployment
need (50%) and project leadership following with 25%. The as unemployment due to a lack among unemployed workers
of necessary skills which can occur as a result of changes in This results in workers becoming displaced since their occu-
demand leading to the decline of industries which previously pations cease to exist as well as new jobs being introduced
provided jobs. Furthermore, structural unemployment cannot causing a shortage of workers with appropriate skill sets and
be cured by simply increasing demand or cutting wages but to some extent, an overlap between the two.
rather, it requires major investment in education and training The shocks in economic activity that can lead to structural
or subsidies to support the migration of jobs to depressed unemployment in the area of low-carbon and localised energy
areas. In other words, there must be a boost in the supply systems can arise from three main drivers:
of labour. It is important to note that structural unemployment
• Firstly, as industries become more energy efficient and
focuses on those who are unemployed and are out of work
less polluting, the demand for occupations such as drilling
as a result of a shift in the economy and it relates less so
engineers decreases whereas there is an increase in the
to those who have the relevant skills but are employed by
demand for others, such as solar panel technicians. In
other institutions. Therefore, its application is not a perfect
some cases the occupations are relatively transferable. For
match to our case since, under the traditional interpretation of
example, an individual working on oil or gas drilling sites
structural unemployment, people who have suitable skills to
will be able to transition to the geothermal industry which
be employed in the low-carbon energy sector may simply be
relies on similar methods for heat extraction. The change
working in other industries. Nevertheless, this area of labour
in market behaviour can also be encouraged by consumer
economics provides a starting point for our analysis of skills
habits, for instance, through mass pressure for greener
gap understanding and modelling.
energy which in turn causes the industry to adapt in order
An example of structural unemployment was seen in the
to meet the demands of their customer base.
coal mining industry when employment fell by nearly 80%
• Secondly, entirely new occupations can emerge as a
between 1980 and 1990 as a result of a change in governmental
result of developments in technology. Occupations are
policy along with the growing unrest in the industry. The
also limited by this factor since a technology may not
scale of the coal mining industry decay is shown in Figure
be available in a certain country or relocation to an area
1. Many of the miners did not have the skills or experience
where the occupation is vacant may not be a feasible
that would transfer to other sectors. Given that the majority
option.
of the population of mining towns were inevitably miners, the
• Thirdly, the introduction of regulation and environmental
changes put excessive pressure on the unemployed miners to
policy can force the industry to alter its structure. For
relocate geographically as well as occupationally to find work.
example, policies may be put in place that ban certain
materials or processes with negative environmental im-
pacts [18]. All of these factors are geographically specific
and will be taken into account when developing a model
for assessing a skills shortage with the constraint of
localisation.
Over time, the labour market adjusts to equilibrium com-
monly through increasing wages to attract skilled workers from
other firms or from unemployment. Alternatively, training can
be provided to increase the supply of skilled workers, yet the
length of a training course may cause long lead times and it
is also necessary to incentivise individuals into enrolling in
the training programmes in the first place. One way to speed
up this process is for companies to offer apprenticeships and
Fig. 1. Number of people employed in the coal mining industry in the United teach workers the skills or training ‘on-the-job’.
Kingdom from 1920 to 2017 (in 1,000s). Figure obtained from [16].
Furthermore, a transparent labour market with available in-
The solutions introduced by the UK government to regen- formation to technological innovators, firms and educators is a
erate the areas of ex-coal mining industries included funding fundamental criterion of an efficient market. This transparency
to support upcoming small businesses, investments from large will minimise the time taken for information to flow about new
automotive and technology companies who built sites in the opportunities from firms to the educators who will provide
affected areas and provision of higher education courses with future workers with the suitable skills [19]. According to the
strong connections to manufacturing and IT industries [17]. GETI [20], when asking hiring managers in the renewable
Structural unemployment is typically long-term unemploy- energy industry how employers can overcome the skills gap,
ment as a result of ‘shocks’ that the economy needs to take 45% believed this could be done through partnering with
time to adjust to. We expect that in our transitional scenario, colleges and education boards. Yet, it is worth noting that
structural unemployment is both about decarbonisation and the this part of the GETI survey was a closed set of answers and
decline of the fossil fuel industry as well as the adoption and although multiple answers could be selected, the options did
development of low-carbon and decentralised energy options. not include a choice of closing the skills gap via is input from
policy makers, which, as noted before is a key influence area way we think about it. We consider the ‘mindset transition’
to be considered. to be a skill shortage in the green energy industry in the
From bans on harmful products to the introduction of a same way that there is a shortage of engineering skills in this
carbon tax, the government has an extraordinarily influential sector. Whilst it is crucial that the right policies are put in
power in promoting a smooth transition to low carbon and place to secure enough investment in skills development, the
more localised energy systems through legislative prohibitions attitudes towards the benefits of low-carbon energy alternatives
as well as by providing both incentives and disincentives. This need to be addressed: firstly to ensure people are willing to
is clearly shown in Figure 2 that illustrates the success of work in the industry, secondly, that they are willing to accept
encouraging installations of solar panels through the introduc- relevant policy and regulations, and finally, to encourage
tion of the Feed-in Tariff in 2010. The growth in the number participation of end users (including end user companies) both
of installations post April 2016 could partly reflect the rush as consumers, investors and producers (where possible) in
to set up projects before further reductions in subsidies take one’s local energy system. The investment in skills training
effect. Nonetheless, this example of a positive incentive for and the attitude of the society towards low-carbon energy go
participation in cleaner production methods should be learnt hand in hand. For instance, according to the Solar Energy
from to support the transition. Society of Canada, one of the reasons why solar thermal got a
bad reputation there was due to unqualified workers installing
systems that did not work properly [22], as skills in that sector
were amiss and available installation engineers did not want
to or could not afford to invest in training.
Societal change is often brought about by leaders who
believe that they can influence policy. Activism of this kind
can take the form of strikes, protests or civil disobedience.
One movement, Extinction Rebellion, urges policy-makers to
take climate change more seriously by causing non-violent
disruptions such as blocking bridges [23]. Participants include
academics and scientists from across the globe and they have
been successful in making their voices heard and raising
awareness for the lack of governmental action through gaining
media attention. However, policies to aid decarbonisation can
also create disruption and unrest, as recently seen with the
‘gilets jaunes’ in France. When president, Emmanuel Macron
proposed a rise in the tax of diesel and petrol without any sub-
sidies for the alternative cleaner, electric vehicles, protesters
Fig. 2. Quarterly breakdown of number of installations and total installed took to the streets in violent clashes with the police [24]. This
capacity accredited under the Feed-in Tariff. Figure obtained from [21] is comparable to a disregard of a just transition that must be
The background research into the effects of an energy avoided in the journey to a greener society. Just as workers
transition for the labour market demonstrates that we can employed in the non-renewable sectors must be given the
learn from previous periods of structural unemployment in opportunity to learn new skills, consumers need to be provided
developing models for skills shortages prediction and preven- with alternatives before enforcing change.
tion. For example, the measurement of how many skills are Other leaders who can encourage the mindset transition are
transferable from jobs in industries that are declining could the large corporations such as Google, Apple and Facebook
provide an indication of how investment should be injected who are all in a race to operate on 100% renewable energy
back into geographically affected areas, i.e. which companies in their worldwide facilities [25]. Industry, being the biggest
should be encouraged to open their doors to those affected contributor of greenhouse gases, has to pay the price for
by structural unemployment, and which should invest into these emissions. As well as operating in a low-carbon manner,
development of new business opportunities. Furthermore, to businesses that benefit from high profits should invest in
make the labour market more transparent, the firms creating education programmes that will in turn reward their reputation
technologies should be motivated to state the occupations and and help to provide an adequately skilled workforce within
skills that will be required to maintain and operate the new their companies and in the wider industry.
products and services. In this way a relevant skills training The inclusion of the ‘mindset transition’ into the skills
curriculum can be devised and kept up to date with emerging assessment model is a real challenge. One way to address this
technologies. is through input from surveys carried out by energy consumers.
Questions in such a survey could enquire what drives or deters
Background from Policy and Social Movements consumers from using low-carbon energy methods. Once the
The transition to low-carbon and localised energy systems reasons behind the lack of willingness to transition are discov-
is as much a change in the way we use our energy as it is the ered, these reasons (where relevant) could also be addressed
through the skills training curriculum, or information sharing In a similar vain to the shortage of system integration, a
campaigns and/or regulations. Informational and educational shortage of skills in conducting whole systems retrofitting
resources could also be made available to consumers through was reported. Adapting existing buildings or systems is a
their energy providers. challenging task and ever more difficult to achieve whilst
simultaneously constructing efficient and low carbon new
III. P ILOT S TUDY builds. The lack of action in this area is partly down to little
As part of the UK Engineering and Science Council funded investment or available funds since retrofitting is a large and
project (EnergyREV), 34 researchers and practitioners of in- expensive venture. Furthermore, there is low value awarded to
terdisciplinary topics within energy systems were invited to refurbishing a perfectly functional building when the will to
take part in small group discussions to help us understand the decarbonise is not a priority and the capital to complete such
current state of the skills gap with regards to the localised a project is not readily available. Other factors that contribute
renewables-based energy systems in the UK. Five groups, to this shortage are a traditional vision about buildings and a
consisting of 4 to 7 persons were formed (through random lack of understanding about the relationship between all parts
allocation of the participants). The groups were set 3 questions of the energy system.
to address: One suggested metric to measure the shortage of skills
In the transition to localised and low-carbon energy systems, in this context is by comparing the gap between sales and
1) What examples of skills shortages have you come certificates. With this information it is possible to to determine
across? approximately how many installations are associated with each
2) What factors do you think cause these skills shortages? certified worker. Consequently, one can assess whether the
3) How can we measure such skills shortages? output per worker is a realistic quantity or if it is likely
that installers are working overtime to compensate for the
The groups recorded their answers as they discussed the
lack of skills in this area. We must also bear in mind the
questions, and the resulting findings were collated after the
possibility that non-certified individuals are carrying out part
workshop. These are presented in Table I and discussed in the
of this workload.
remainder of this section.
Another shortage mentioned in the workshop was that of
Discussions of Preliminary Findings whole systems understanding, the architects to design them
and analysts to assess their performance. Analytic skills on
Although the groups worked independently from each other,
carbon saving and efficiency is something we are seeing more
several ideas overlapped and there was a clear emphasis on the
of in smart systems which provide the resulting information
need for a combination of top-down and bottom-up solutions.
on carbon savings and efficiency to end-users. However, the
Firstly, there was a noted shortage of multi-vector energy performance of buildings in terms of their efficiency calculated
systems and interoperable technology. As many renewable through measures such as BREEAM analysis could be useful
generation methods are intermittent by relying on natural in clarifying whether a building operates on the level it claims
cycles, it is necessary to complement methods of generation to or was designed to. Cross-certification in this respect can
with others to provide a secure energy supply. The integration imply whether there is a high enough quality of skills to
of systems will be specific to different regions since not all provide the low-carbon solutions that are aimed to be achieved.
localities will have access to every form of energy generation It is evident that there is a shortage of policy makers
and some forms are more efficient than others in certain areas. and legal experts with specific knowledge of low-carbon
Most importantly, different forms of generation must be com- and localised energy systems. The lack of government action
patible when combined in the same system. Interoperability could be due to the lack of conclusive data which provides the
can appear in a number of ways: evidence that the supply of energy will be secure when gener-
• Consumer interoperability - difficulty in switching energy ated on smaller scales or by alternative methods off the trusted
service providers, National Grid. Although some successes have been reported by
• Data interoperability - data sharing and combined analy- several energy communities and projects, they are viewed as
sis of data from different platforms, piece meal, often reported in non-comparable ways. Aggregat-
• Device interoperability - compatibility of equipment ing and integrating the data required for demonstration of such
bought to monitor or manage energy usage, successes across many projects is a key part of the research
Contributing factors that relate to these issues include a carried out by members of the EnergyRev Consortium. The
lack of standards, a lack of appreciation of the commercial factors contributing to the shortage of legal experts could again
value of tackling the skills shortage as well as silo training be due to a lack of whole-systems understanding as well as
and thinking. A standardised set of requirements to ensure a low will and acknowledgement of the urgency of working
interoperability would be an effective solution if enforced as a to support the transition. A suggested way to measure skills
regulation. Additionally, a standard in education and training gap in this area is by looking at the vacancy rates of related
programmes would provide a bigger systems understanding jobs; how long the positions are vacant for as well as how
rather than focusing on individual topics. This would also aid many vacancies there are as a ratio of total legal experts for
in reducing silo approaches to the industry. example.
TABLE I
C OLLATED INPUT FROM DISCUSSION - BASED WORKSHOP.
Skills Shortage Examples Contributing Factors Measurement Methods
• Multi-vector qualified installers • Lack of accreditation • Number of qualified installers com-
• Minimum standards for installers • Lack of standards pared with the size of the market or
• Interoperable technology • Lack of tripadvisor-style ratings compared with the number of busi-
• Current lack of demand for local energy nesses offering the service
• Lack of appreciation of commercial value in tackling
the skill shortage
• Lack of trusted advice
• Lack of expertise about wider benefits (ecological and
social)
• Local energy system architects • Lack of training infrastructure • Number of people trained in specific
• Communication liaison • Lack of thought about what is needed programs
• Energy focused ICT/ cyber • Lack of investment • Number of installations etc.
• Whole systems understanding • Lack of systems thinking in education • Number of school children engaged
• Installation, operations & maintenance • Diversity of systems in related activities
• Multi-vector systems • Lack of appropriate/static regulation
• No clear local energy project owner (not BAU)
• Poor incentives (low salaries and attractiveness)
• Unclear career path
• Broken apprenticeship schemes
• Certified installation skills • Employer-driven certification/ skills • Cross certification of existing data
• Energy efficient buildings • Regulation change • Gap between sales and certificates
• System performance skills (analytics of effi- • Shift in installations and projections
ciency or carbon saving) • Job guidance
• Whole building retrofit of skills based on • Job roles
outcome measures not models
• Transferable skills • Policy driven peaks and troughs in market due to • Job satisfaction
• Apprenticeships funding stopping and starting • Job adverts/ job skill surveys (ONS)
• Retrofit • Lack of awareness of the benefits of renewable energy - single and multi skill
• QA when choosing career • Salaries in sectors
• Further education • Visibility • Educational courses
• Professional development • Size of job market • Post course surveys
• System integration • Traditional vision of building refurbishment • Professional membership figures
• Lack of legal skills • Need to be multi-skilled or be knowledgeable about • Installation rates
whole building retrofit
• Job perks - salary
• Lack of willingness to change
• Evaluating social phenomenon • Not valued
• Interdisciplinary technical skills e.g. energy • Silo training/thinking
& digital • Cost of training
• System integration • Responsibility
• Diversity • Prejudice
• Local government • Traditional mindset
• Geography • Incumbency
• Engagement
• Management
Final key shortages learned from the workshop were the not been learnt from the review of existing literature such as
lack of individuals with transferable and interdisciplinary the lack of skills relating to whole system retrofitting and the
skills as well as appropriate further education, namely in lack of accreditation of relevant skills. These findings, along
STEM subjects, project management or more specific courses. with those from the previously presented literature review, will
Financial, IT, cyber and installation skills were amongst the be incorporated into our ongoing research on developing a
highlighted skills in shortage. Reported factors contributing to skills assessment model. These findings include, for instance,
their low supply include poor incentives, such as remuneration cross certification and skill surveys to be completed by em-
or other job perks, expensive courses to gain the qualification ployers (which skills are difficult to source in job vacancies)
and a lack of investment in education. Metrics to quantify and graduates (perceptions of working in low-carbon and
this include the number of people out of the entire workforce localised industry and reasons for and against). Furthermore,
with the required qualifications, enrolled in relevant training it is important to have an understanding of the economic
programmes as well as the aforementioned length of vacancy and social impacts resulting from a given skill shortage as
advertisements. well as those factors driving the shortage. Since there is no
single measure that can fully represent a skills imbalance,
The preliminary workshop raised interesting points from a a selection of metrics should be used as well as including
range of backgrounds. Several issues that were voiced had
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