The proposed strategy for the study of interregional economic and social exchange is based on the simultaneous application of foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies. The foresight methodology is applied at the first stage of complex system modeling and the obtained results are used as input data for the cognitive modeling stage. A toolkit for the construction a cognitive map with a convenient and simple user interface is developed. The computational algorithm and software modules provide verification of the structural stability, stability at the initial value and perturbation. In the process of cognitive modeling, the creation of possible scenarios for the development of the system under the influence of various control and perturbation influences is carried out. It gives the possibility to determine the conditions for advancement for the system of interregional economic relations aimed at improving the quality of life of the population in the considered regions.
The experience of the leading countries of the world shows that the success in the
social and economic activities of the state under current conditions of globalization of
the world economy is largely ensured by the high rates of innovative development of
scientific, technical, manufacturing and technological potentials and high levels of
competitiveness of national high-tech products on the world market. The study of the
social and economic activity of the state requires a systematic approach, an
understanding of the complexity of the systems, the regulation of which needs
scientific planning and forecasting [
In many countries, primarily to develop a long-term vision of the innovative development of the industry, science and technology as the main components of the state’s economy, the methodology of foresight is used. On its basis, a systematic process of “identification” of key future technologies (critical technologies, alternative scenarios) is carried out to help representatives of the highest governing bodies of the economic sphere of the state, industries or individual institutions and companies to form the most effective science and technology policy and plan its development. The governments of all countries are gradually forced to “engage” in the process of foresight, because the successful use of the achievements of science and technology increasingly depends on the creation of effective links between business, innovation, scientific and educational institutions and the branches of the government responsible for the development of a society.
A cognitive modeling methodology is used to build scenarios for the desired future. Cognitive modeling technologies that belong to the class of simulation modeling are designed to understand, explain, and describe a complex system, and determine possible ways to manage situations in a complex system in order to transition from the initial state to the desired one, based on cognitive modeling. At the same time, in cognitive modeling, as in any simulation modeling, a subjectivity takes place when providing initial data on the subject area considered in the process of determining the vertices of the graph, the subjectivity in determining the arcs of the graph, reflecting the causal relationships between the vertices, in the inclusion of weights and functions arcs of the graph. In order to mitigate subjectivity, it is proposed to use the foresight methodology at the first stage and to use the obtained results as the initial data at the cognitive modeling stage.
The purpose of this paper is to develop, using the methods of foresight and cognitive modeling, the system of interconnection of interregional relations elements (entities, concepts) in the form of a cognitive map imitating the mechanism of interregional economic and social integration. In the process of cognitive modeling, the goal is to construct the possible scenarios for the development of the system under the influence of various control and perturbation influences and determine the conditions for improving the system of interregional economic relations aimed at improving the quality of life of the population in the considered regions. 2
Review of the Literature
In semi-structured problems, which include the tasks of an interregional
socioeconomic integration, it is impossible to apply the traditional mathematical approach
to the analysis of the development of complex solutions. For the complex
nonformalized systems simulation a cognitive approach based on cognitive aspects is
used. These aspects include the processes of perception, thinking, cognition,
explanation and understanding. A schematic, generalized description of the picture of
the world is depicted as a cognitive map. Technologies of cognitive modeling of
complex systems have actively being developed since the middle of the 20th century,
including in [
Involving foresight methods in the first stage of simulation allows using expert
assessment procedures to identify critical technologies and construct alternatives of
scenarios with quantitative values of characteristics. With this goal, in the process of
implementing the procedure for forming alternatives of scenarios in solving problems
of foresight, there is a need to involve expert assessment methods, among which are
the most frequently used methods of hierarchy analysis, Delphi, cross-analysis and
morphological analysis, methods of SWOT, TOPSIS, VIKOR [
The use of foresight and cognitive modeling is an innovative tool for studying the structure, behavior of complex systems, and achieving the desired development strategies. 3
Setting the Task of Modeling Interregional Economic and
Social Integration
To implement the actions presented in the diagram in Fig. 1, it is necessary to give
some explanations of the complex systems cognitive modeling. Cognitive modeling
of complex systems [
The mathematical form of a cognitive map is usually expressed by the sign
oriented graph [
In a cognitive study of the problems of the system of inter-regional economic and
social integration, one can apply the technique of developing a sequence of cognitive
maps to reflect various aspects of inter-regional relations that clarify each other. In
this paper, a generalized cognitive map will be presented in which the region is not
specified, and the model reflects only concepts (tops) – factors affecting the
effectiveness of interregional socio-economic integration for any region. At the same
time, the initial values for cognitive modeling are the results obtained using foresight
methods [
Creating a Cognitive Model of Interregional Economic and
Social Integration
We first construct one of the cognitive G maps, in which we reflect the dependence
of interregional exchange on the identified factors of interregional economic and
social integration. In the process of developing a cognitive map to support the process
of structuring an expert’s knowledge in a specific subject area, the capabilities of the
CMSS toolkit [
When analyzing a cognitive map, the procedure for obtaining the structural stability is performed by selecting pair and unpaired cycles. The pair cycle (positive feedback) has a positive product of the signs of all its arcs, unpaired (negative feedback) has negative. The pair cycle is the simplest model of the structural instability, since any initial change of a parameter at any of its vertices leads to an unlimited increase in the module of the parameters of the cycle's vertices. Any change in the parameter of any vertex of an odd cycle only leads to an oscillation of the parameters of the vertices.
We illustrate the construction of the initial cognitive map on the example of the study of inter-regional economic and social exchange. Vertices and their purpose are shown in Table 1. determined during the study.
The possibilities of presenting a cognitive map in the CMSS software system is illustrated with fig. 1. These are colored vertices and arcs; the image of the vertex with a larger or smaller circle corresponds to the weight (“significance”, “importance”, “parameter value”) of the vertex; selection of the vertex frame; the image of arcs of different thickness, they can be solid (positive arc weight “+”) or dash-dotted (negative arc weight “–”). It is also possible to: name and encode a vertex (for example, V 2 . Interregional economic integration), depict arcs (relations) between vertices, their sign and weight ij (for example, the arc e54 between V 5 and V 4 has a “+” sign that is represented as solid line, and weight 54 4 ; the arc e74 has a weight of 74 3 and the sign “–”, which is depicted by a dash-dotted line), the attention is concentrated on it and it is painted in red color. It is possible to call the action (relation, influence) between the corresponding vertices, for example, V 8 (level of the production base) “affects” V 4 (turnover). The choice of the name of the vertices and arcs is carried out by an expert in coordination with the purpose of the study. Note that presented in Fig. 1 numbers, colors, sizes are for illustrative purposes only.
Mappings of vertices and arcs along with their parameters and with the ability to make changes to this grid are shown in fig. 2.
All the described possibilities of the CMSS toolkit help the researcher (expert) to penetrate deeper into the problem of research, varying the number of vertices and arcs, their name, color, size, weight. This ensures the realization of the cognitive abilities of a person, his logical and figurative thinking, reducing the risk of the “human factor” in modeling a complex system. After developing a cognitive model it is necessary to analyze its properties.
Perturbation stability analysis. The results of calculations of the roots of the characteristic equation of the adjacency matrix of the graph G are showed in Fig. 3. Since in this case the maximal root modulus is i 1, 6754 1 , the system G is stable neither to the disturbance, nor to the initial value. This indicates that the slightest deviations at the vertices lead the system out of the steady state. Making a decision about how “good” / “bad” it is in this case requires the further analysis and refinement of the model.
Analysis of cognitive map cycles. The analysis of cognitive map cycles allows to make a judgment of the structural stability of the system. In Fig.4, for clarity, one of 15 cycles (positive) of model G is highlighted. The model has 12 cycles of positive (amplifying) and 3 negative (stabilizing) feedback. Since there is an odd number of negative cycles, this indicates the structural stability of the system.
Creation of Scenarios for the Development of Interregional
Economic and Social Integration
The creation of scenarios is based on impulse modeling of the development of situ
ions on the cognitive map [
Scenario № 1. Let the trade develop intensively q4 1 ; action vector Q q1 0; ... q4 1; ... q11 0 (Fig.5).
The presentation of the results of a pulse simulation according to scenario №1 is divided into two groups of graphs in order not to overload the drawing and to facilitate the perception and analysis of the results. Graphs of impulse processes at 7 and 10 cycles of the simulation are given. The choice of the number of modeling steps for presenting the results depends on the expert (researcher), the software system allows you to simulate any number of steps.
As can be seen from Fig.5, the assumed possibility of the development of commodity turnover between regions leads to trends in the development of situations that can be considered positive for the system in the initial steps of modeling. But the tendency of increasing oscillations in the system due to the impulsive instability of the system ( 1) is undesirable.
Scenario №2. Let the risks increase in the system, q7 1 ; impact vector Q q1 0; ... q7 1; ... q11 0 (Fig.6).
As can be seen from Fig. 6, the growth of risks leads to a negative development of situations in the system, which does not contradict the “common sense” and may indirectly serve as a judgment about the compliance of the cognitive map with the simulated system of interregional economic and social exchanging.
Fig.6. Scenario №2.
Scenario № 3. Let the system deteriorate socio-economic indicators q3 1; Q q1 0; ... q3 1; ... q11 0 (Fig.7). As it can be seen from Fig. 7, scenario №3 can be considered pessimistic. regional regulatory systems act “positively”, q9 1 and begin to increase the level of the production base q8 1q8; impact vector Q q1 0; ... q7 1; q8 1; q9 1; ... q11 0 (Fig.8).
Scenario number 4 can be considered the most optimistic compared with the previous ones. But to select the best scenario for the development of situations it is necessary to carry out further modeling using proposed strategy of an interregional economic and social integration. The results of cognitive modeling illustrate the initial stages of time-consuming research into the system of the regional interregional economic and social integration. In this case, it is necessary to carry out further modeling, not only considering other possible development scenarios, but also refining and expanding the cognitive model, realizing the principle of operation on a sequence of models. It is necessary, using the methods of foresight, to propose alternative scenarios, compare them with the simulated scenarios on the cognitive model, in order to develop a strategy for the effective development of the interregional socio-economic integration for specific regions. This article outlines the path to such research.