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<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>The reader's feeling and text-based emotions: The relationship between subjective self-reports, lexical ratings, and sentiment analysis</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Egon Werlen</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>egon.werlen@ffhs.ch</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Christof Imhof</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>christof.imhof@ffhs.ch</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Fernando Benites</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>Per Bergamin</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2">
          <label>2</label>
          <institution>Swiss Distance University of Applied Sciences</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>FFHS</addr-line>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff3">
          <label>3</label>
          <institution>Zurich University of Applied Sciences</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>ZHAW</addr-line>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date>
        <year>2019</year>
      </pub-date>
      <abstract>
        <p>In this study, we examined how precisely a sentiment analysis and a word list-based lexical analysis predict the emotional valence (as positive or negative emotional states) of 63 emotional short stories. Both the sentiment analysis and the word listbased analysis predicted subjective valence, which however was predicted even more precisely when both analysis methods were combined. These results can, for example, contribute to the development of new technology-based teaching designs, in that positive or negative emotions in the texts or online-contributions of students can be assessed in automated form and transferred into instructional measures. Such instructional actions can, for example, be hints, learning support or feedback adapted to the students' emotional state.</p>
      </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>
        There has been great progress in technology-based
learning in recent decades. Methods and
procedures of learning analytics have recently played an
important role here. In principle, learning
analytics is about collecting data from students during
learning and using it to improve teaching. Despite
progress in Natural Language Processing (NLP),
texts or contributions from students have rarely
been used as a source of information for
learning analytics or for technology-based learning
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref42">(e.g.
Shibani, 2017)</xref>
        . In this article, we used a small
corpus of texts with 900 to 1100 characters each in
the form of emotional short stories to find out to
what extent it is possible to automatically capture
emotions as positive or negative emotional
colouring of texts. The aim of this article is to assess how
well two different methods of automatic capturing
of emotions in texts predicted the subjective
assessment of emotional reactions to these texts, be
it individually or in combination.
2
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>Theoretical background</title>
      <p>In the late nineties, Barrett and Russell (1999)
developed the circumplex model, a model of
emotions with two dimensions; emotional valence and
emotional arousal. Emotional valence is the
experience of one’s own actual positive or negative
feeling. Emotional arousal is the subjective amount of
internal activation or energy. Together, these two
dimensions form the core affect, “the most
elementary consciously accessible affective feelings that
need not be directed at anything” (S. 806). The
circumplex model provided the theoretical basis for
the present work.</p>
      <p>
        Emotional valence, based on the circumplex model,
was measured on a bipolar scale, ranging form very
negative to very positive. This method was
originally conceived by Wundt (1896) and is the most
commonly used method to date. However, like the
sentiment analysis used in this study, some
theories view valence as a bivariate construct (e.g.
Norris et al., 2010; Briesemeister et al., 2012; Shuman
et al., 2013; Kron et
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">al., 2015</xref>
        ). According to those
views, humans can perceive objects (e.g. images,
words, texts) as positive and negative at the same
time, enabling them to have an ambiguous quality.
This highlights that emotion measurements are a
challenging and debated task
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref33">(see also e.g. Mauss
and Robinson, 2009)</xref>
        .
2.1
      </p>
      <sec id="sec-2-1">
        <title>Subjective measurement by self-reporting</title>
        <p>Today, research assumes that individual
measurements cannot capture the phenomenon of emotions
entirely. This leads to the practice of using
multiple measuring methods in scientific investigations,
often in conjunction. Self-reports such as
questionnaires or single item questions are a popular way
of measuring emotions, and for good reasons: they
have good validity (as long as response biases are
taken into account) and enable quick and simple
data collection. Non-verbal alternatives to
measure emotions can also be used, such as the
SelfAssessment Manikins (SAM scale) from Bradley
and Lang (1994), measuring feelings, i.e. the
subjective experience of emotions. This instrument
contains visual rather than verbal stimuli (i.e.
pictures rather than questions), which consist of
abstract representations of a human being displaying
different emotions. The scale varies in three
dimensions; valence, arousal, and dominance. The
valence dimension shows pictures ranging from a
smiling face to a frowning face, with more neutral
expressions in-between; and in the arousal
dimension, pictures range from a sleepy and calm figure
to a wide-eyed, excited expression. We did not use
the dominance dimension that represents the
controlling and dominant nature of emotion shown by
a tiny figure in the middle of a square for low
dominance towards a oversize figure going beyond the
borders of the square for high dominance. Raters
were instructed to choose the image that best
represents their own current emotional state.
2.2</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-2">
        <title>Objective measurement by lexical ratings, and sentiment analysis</title>
        <p>
          Despite their popularity, self-reports are far from
the only instrument being used in affective
science. Lexical analysis (i.e. analysis based on
single words) is a different, more objective
instrument which historically has been used significantly
less often. In this reg
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">ard, Jacobs et al. (2015</xref>
          )
argues, based on long existing works by Freud
(1891) and Bu¨hler (1934), that spoken or
written words contain the potential to elicit both overt
or covert sensu-motoric or affective reactions. In
this context we speak of embodied stimuli. Recent
neurological research supports this relationship
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">as
demonstrated in Jacobs (2015</xref>
          ). On the basis of
these, it can be explained that words can evoke
both basic and fictional emotions as well as
something like aesthetic feelings.
        </p>
        <p>
          Before neurological research pointed out these
connections, there was a clear language-emotion gap,
i.e. most emotion theories ignored language
functions, while linguistic theories ignored affective
processes. In order to bridge that gap, the Berlin
Affective Word List (BAWL-R) was developed
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref48">(Vo
et al., 2009)</xref>
          . The BAWL-R is a large German word
list containing almost 3000 words (nouns, verbs,
and adjectives) from the CELEX database
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">(Baayen
et al., 1993)</xref>
          , each rated on valence, arousal, and
imageability. The list also includes
psycholinguistic factors (e.g. number of letters, phonemes, word
frequency, accent). It is free for download (1). To
1cf. https://www.ewi-psy.fu-berlin.
de/einrichtungen/arbeitsbereiche/allgpsy/
Download/BAWL/index.html accessed May 2019
open the file a password must be requested. The
BAWL-R enables estimations of the emotional
potential for single words but also extrapolations for
sentences and whole texts.
        </p>
        <p>
          The BAWL-R specifically has been utilized for this
purpose
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">as well: Aryani et al. (2015</xref>
          )
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref30 ref4">analysed
poems, Lehne et al. (2015</xref>
          ) examined E.T.A.
Hoffmann’s black-romantic story ”The S
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">andman”, Hsu
et al. (2015</xref>
          ) analysed passages of Harry Potter
novels, and Jacobs and Kinder (2017) inquired
potentially relevant properties of Skakespear’s sonnets.
These studies found out that affective word
ratings correlated with whole text ratings and came
to the conclusion that a text’s constituting words
can predict its emotional potential. Studies
using the BAWL-R to predict subjective valence of
short texts (Hsu et
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">al., 2015</xref>
          ) and poems
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref46">(Ullrich
et al., 2017)</xref>
          with lexical valence found correlations
of r = .58 (short texts) and r = .65 (poems).
Since about the year 2000, research on sentiment
and, as a consequence thereof, the term sentiment
analysis appeared in scientific literature of
computational science with increased frequency e.g.
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13 ref36">(Nasukawa and Yi, 2003; Das and Chan, 2001)</xref>
          . Liu
(2012) describes sentiment analysis as part of
natural language processing (NLP) that extracts
people’s emotions, sentiments, opinions etc. out of
spoken or written language. It focuses mainly on
positive and negative sentiments. Sentiment
analysis is a learning-based approach, that - in
contrast to lexical analysis - does not necessarily rely
on rated word lists and instead implements
machine learning. Technically speaking, word-based
lexical analysis could be categorized as a semantic
approach to sentiment analysis that does not
necessarily implement machine learning. Sentiment
analysis, also called opinion mining or polarity
detection, as explained by Fueyo (2018), ”refers to
the set of AI algorithms and techniques used to
extract the polarity of a given document: whether
the document is positive, negative or neutral” that
is represented as classes or a probability. Angiani
et al. (2016) lists possible steps of a sentiment
analysis: 1) initialization step (data collection, data
processing, attribute selection), 2) learning step
(algorithm, training model), and 3) evaluation step
(test set).
        </p>
        <p>
          The automatic sentiment analysis system used for
this paper is composed of two parts, namely the
model and the data. The multi-layered
convolutional network model is the same as in Deriu et al.
(2017). The authors trained this network as shown
in Figure 1 with a large number of tweets in
different languages that were weakly supervised, and
demonstrated the importance of using pre-training
of such networks. The specific pre-training
procedure, named distant-supervised learning, is trained
on larger weakly or non-labelled samples2.
Afterwards the network is further trained on a much
smaller data set with manually strongly labelled
samples. The approach was evaluated on
various multi-lingual data sets, including the
SemEval2016 sentiment prediction benchmark (Task 4),
where it achieved state-of-the-art performance.
This model was trained on the SB10k German
Twitter sentiment corpus
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">(Cieliebak et al., 2017)</xref>
          ,
which is a corpus for sentiment analysis with
approximately 10,000 German tweets. Tweets are
normally a sentence long and are often connoted
with emotions. Although the domain is not the
same, the focus on sentence and on emotions is
very similar in the used data sets (train and test).
The used word embeddings were weakly trained on
40 millions German tweets. Here, emoticons were
used for automatically labelling the emotional
content of a tweet (positive, negative, neutral).
Finally, the output of the network is the confidence
(from 0 to 1) for each one of the three sentiments.
Both lexical and sentimental analyses have been
applied to different types of texts to measure their
emotional potential in different contexts.
Mossholder et al. (1995) analysed emotions in open-ended
survey responses by applying the Dictionary of
Affect in Language (D
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">AL); Loughran and McDonald
(2015</xref>
          ) used the Diction software in order to analyse
and categorize the tone of business documents such
as financial reports; Humphreys and Wang (2017)
implemented automated text analysis for
examining text patterns in consumer rese
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">arch; Lima et al.
(2015</xref>
          ) analysed Twitter messages within a
polarity analysis framework, Whissell (2011) analysed
Poe’s poetry and Whissell (1996) used the
”emotion clock” to conduct a stylometric analysis of
Beatles songs, to name a few examples.
2.3
        </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-3">
        <title>Combination of different measurement procedures</title>
        <p>A comparison of different procedures for emotion
recognition on the sentence level was conducted by
Aman (2007). He concluded that a combination of
different automatic procedures for recording
emotions is advantageous. This finding is also
supported in a paper by Strapparava and Mihalcea
(2010). They tested several methods for
automatically detecting emotions in short texts (headlines
and blog posts; 100-400 characters). Six headline
advisors rated the presence of six distinct
emotions as well as the valence of the texts, which
were then predicted by several procedures. The
study found that ”different methods have
different strengths, especially with respect to
individual emotions” (p. 35). Most interestingly, the
2On twitter emoticons/emojis can be used as weak
labels, for instance a tweet with a smiling emoji will
probably have a positive sentiment.
correlation between emotions evaluated by human
raters and those found by algorithms was
moderate with max. r = .48 (explanation of
variance max. 24%). The largest effect was found
with valence analysed in a knowledge-based,
areaindependent, unsupervised CLaC approach. We
assume, as already mentioned above, that
different measurements can cover certain aspects of the
complex phenomenon emotions that others do not.
Different measurements often only reveal parts of
a phenomena and might sometimes even be
contradictory. Thus, the combination of several
measurement techniques can prove to be fruitful.
In our study, we are interested in the
combination between lexical analysis, sentiment analysis
and self-report and specifically, if prediction of the
latter improves when the former two are combined.
2.4</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-4">
        <title>Hypotheses</title>
        <p>
          As discussed above, it has been known for a long
time (e.g. Freud (1891); Bu¨hler (1934) that words
can trigger emotional reactions, which more
recently has been confirmed in neurologic
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">al studies
Jacobs (2015</xref>
          ). According to the circumplex model
of emotion by Barrett and Russell (1999), the
emotional valence, i.e. the personal appraisal whether
and how strongly something is perceived positively
or negatively, is one of the most basic emotional
reactions. The emotional valence, i.e. the subjective
valence, of the 63 short texts was assessed by
university students rating their emotional responses to
these texts (17-19 ratings per text). As explained
above, the emotional valence of a text can also be
measured objectively, in our case with sentiment
analysis and lexical analysis. We were interested
in finding out if these automated objective
measurement approaches could predict the subjective
valence. If so, they could serve as an
approximation rather than relying on repeated self-reports of
subjective ratings. This leads to the first
hypothesis.
        </p>
        <p>As several studies have shown (e.g. Aman (2007);
Strapparava and Mihalcea (2010), combinations of
several methods for estimating emotions in texts
lead to better predictions than one method alone.
This leads to the second hypothesis.</p>
        <p>1. The emotional valence measured by lexical
analysis and by sentiment analysis each
predict the subjective valence of the short texts.
2. The combination of the measurements
methods (lexical analysis and sentiment analysis)
increases the predictive power.</p>
        <p>
          Despite the sizable amount of research in
emotion and in text analysis, we are not aware
of many studies that not only compared
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref22 ref37 ref53">(e.g.
Nielsen, 2011; Hutto and Gilbert, 2014)</xref>
          but also
combined both word-list-based lexical analysis and
sentiment analysis to predict subjective ratings
of emotional valence in short texts
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15">(e.g. Dhaoui
et al., 2017)</xref>
          .
3
3.1
        </p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Methods</title>
      <sec id="sec-3-1">
        <title>Samples and measurements</title>
        <p>The 63 analysed texts originated from a collection
of 102 German texts written by 32 authors, 21
of which were German speaking students and
staff of an University in Germany (mean age
26.10, SD = 10.65; gender: 85% women), and
11 of which were recruited by the first author
(university staff and people recruited via social
media and personal contacts; mean age 36.82,
SD = 15.78; 64% women). These 63 texts are
part of an international database with over 200
emotional short stories which are developed
and refined within the framework of the COST
initiative E-Read IS 1404 (Kaakinen et al., in
preparation). The international database contains
stories from Finland, France, Germany, Portugal,
Spain, Switzerland, and Turkey. All stories are
subjectively rated on emotional valence, emotional
arousal and comprehensibility in their original
language and in English. All texts have a length
of 900 to 1100 characters including spaces. Texts
that were not written in the first person were
rewritten without changing their content and
structure. The topic varies from story to story,
some of them tell of joyful events and experiences
(e.g. birth, love, music) or negative ones (e.g.
death, abuse). A few stories are emotionally
neutral, i.e. neither positive nor negative and with
a medium level of emotional arousal. The stories
are mostly easy to understand. Once finished, the
database will be presented in a publication and
made freely accessible.</p>
        <p>
          The subjective valence rating of the texts was
conducted with the Self-Assessment-Manikin scale
(SAM3) by
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref28">Lang (1980)</xref>
          . We used a modified
9-point scale by Suk (2006). Participants were
instructed to rate the texts by choosing one of
nine icons to represent their current emotional
state. The 63 texts were rated on the survey
platform Qualtrics by 55 native German speaking
university students from different majors of a
German University. The raters’ mean age was
23.47 years (SD = 2.62), 90.9% were female.
Each participant rated a randomly predetermined
set of 21 texts in randomized order, so that
each text was evaluated by one of three groups
with each 17-19 participants. As compensation,
participants had the chance to win one of fifteen
10 € Amazon vouchers. The inter-rater reliability
3cf. http://irtel.uni-mannheim.de/pxlab/
demos/index_SAM.html accessed Feb. 2019
for the subjective rating of emotional valence
calculated with the R package irr by Gamer et al.
(2012) was .98 or more in each of the three groups.
The semantic lexical analysis of the text was
conducted with the revised form of the Berlin
Affective Word List BAWL-R
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref48">(Vo et al., 2009)</xref>
          in R
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref40 ref51">(R Core Team, 2017)</xref>
          , using the packages
tidyverse
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref51">(Wickham, 2017)</xref>
          and sylly
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref34">(Michalke,
2018)</xref>
          . In that list, valence had been rated on a
7-point Likert scale (-3 very negative through 0
neutral to +3 very positive). For each short story,
we averaged the valence of all the words in that
text represented in the BAWL-R.
        </p>
        <p>
          The automatic sentiment analysis was trained on
sentences. Nevertheless, we applied it to our short
stories as a whole instead, since the subjective
ratings we wanted to predict were on a text
rather than a sentence level. For this paper, we
calculated a new overall valence variable for the
sentiment analysis data based on the negative and
positive scores (negative sentiment minus positive
sentiment), assuming that the neutral sentiment
had no influence on the positive or negative
orientation of the analysis. The reason for this decision
was that the three original variables sum up to 1
and are therefore interdependent. Consequently,
their individual effects on the subjective ratings
canceled each other out. In order to obtain values
comparable to the BAWL-R valence variable, this
new variable was created. We further analyzed
the text in terms of readability. Readability was
scored with the well established Flesch Index
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">(Flesch, 1948)</xref>
          , using a formula adapted to the
German language
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">(Amstad, 1978)</xref>
          . Means and
standard deviations of the all used measures for
valence are reported in Table 1.
        </p>
        <p>Valence
Subjective</p>
        <p>Lexical
Sentiment
Sentiment
positive
negative
mean
4.46
0.63
-0.44
0.14
0.29</p>
        <p>
          SD
2.21
0.27
0.26
0.10
0.12
min
1.17
0.02
-0.95
0.01
0.04
max
8.61
1.17
0.20
0.47
0.84
scale
-3 - 3
1 - 9
-1 - 1
0 - 1
0 - 1
We chose to conduct our regression analyses
with a Bayesian approach, which has
important advantages over the traditional frequentist
null hypothesis significance testing. Within the
Bayesian approach, the interpretation of data is
not affected by sampling intention. In contrast to
the frequentist approach, the Bayesian approach
permits assessment of the relative credibility of
parameter values given the data and the statistical
model
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref27">(Kruschke, 2010)</xref>
          . The statistical analyses
were conducted with R version 3.3.4
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref40 ref51">(R Core
Team, 2017)</xref>
          and the R package brms version 2.4.0
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">(Bu¨rkner, 2018)</xref>
          , which is a package for Bayesian
generalized multivariate non-linear multilevel
models. To allow comparisons with other studies
that correlated lexical or sentimental analysis
with subjective ratings of texts, we calculated
correlations of the standardized values averaged
over the 63 texts as beta values with brms. For the
multilevel models predicting subjective valence,
the raw data of all 55 raters were included in the
model with rater as a level 2 predictor. The
resulting sample included 1143 observations, i.e. 63
texts with an average of 18 raters. The predictors
(sentiment, lexical valence, and Flesch Index) were
averaged for each of the 63 texts. The subjective
valence ratings - an ordinal scaled variable with
values ranging from 1 to 9 - were modelled with
a cumulative distribution. The Bayesian Credible
Interval, meaning the range a certain value lies
within with a probability of 95% (thus not to be
confused with the frequentist Confidence Interval!)
is reported for all results. Since this is the first
study in this context applying Bayesian analysis,
no informative priors were available. We thus
decided to use brms’ default priors. The
LeaveOne-Out Cross-Validation information criteria
(LOOic) was used to compare the different models.
The LOOic is a method ”for estimating pointwise
out-of-sample prediction accuracy from a fitted
Bayesian model using the log-likelihood evaluated
at the posterior simulations of the parameter
values” (p. 1413;
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref47">(Vehtari et al., 2017)</xref>
          ).
4
        </p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Results</title>
      <p>The correlation between the sentiment value
calculated as the difference between negative
and positive sentiment - and the lexical value
of valence was r = .50 (95% Credible Interval
CrI = [.28; .72]). Both of them had a moderate
positive correlation with the subjective valence
ratings of the texts (r = .51 (95% CrI = [.28; .72]
for sentiment; r = .62 (95% CrI = [.42; .82] for
lexical valence). There was a weak correlation
between the Flesch readability score and the other
three variables (sentiment: r = − .24 (95% CrI =
[-.48; .01]; lexical valence: r = − .12 95% CrI =
[-.37; .12]; subjective valence: r = − .24 (95% CrI
= [-.50; .01]).</p>
      <p>A visual inspection of the MCMC chains and the
R-hat diagnostic with all R-hat values &lt; 1.02
revealed good convergence for all estimated
parameters of all calculated models.</p>
      <p>The restricted model (Model 0) including the
intercepts and the level 2 variable only had a
LOOic of 4969. Model 1 predicting subjective
valence by sentiment had an effect of β = 4.60
(95% CrI = [2.62; 6.56]). The LOOic was 4717.
Model 2 predicting subjective valence by lexical
valence had an effect of β = 5.37 (95% CrI =
[3.62; 7.01]) with a LOOic of 4578. To decide,
which model is to prefer, we relied on the credible
intervals of the LOOic. The credible intervals of
the LOOic of Model 1 and 2 did not overlap with
the LOOic of the restricted model 0 (see Table
2). That lead to our conclusion that both models
predicted subjective valence and that the first
hypothesis could be confirmed.</p>
      <p>Model 3 predicting subjective valence of texts
by sentiment and lexical valence (BAWL-R) is
presented in Table 3. The design formula for model 3
was formulated as follows:</p>
      <p>Ri is the ordered distribution (i.e. a
categorical distribution that takes the vector p =
{ p1, p2, p3, p4, p5, p6, p7, p8} of probabilities of each
subjective valence rating value below the
maximum category of 9). α k is the unique intercept
of each possible outcome value k, φ i is the linear
model that is subtracted from each intercept,
β BAW L and β Sent are the slopes of the BAWL-R
(lexical analysis) and sentiment values respectively
and BAW Li and Senti are the values of both
predictor variables on row i.</p>
      <p>
        The subjective valence was predicted by
sentiment with β = 2.07 (95% CrI = [1.58; 2.59]),
and by lexical valence with β = 3.42 (95% CrI
= [2.96; 3.89]). The LOO information criteria of
model 3 (LOOic = 4515) was smaller than that of
either of the other models. The credible interval
of model 1, but not of model 2 does not overlap
with the credible interval of the combined model
3. We conclude that sentiment and lexical analysis
predict subjective valence better than sentiment
analysis alone. Even if the credible interval of
model 3 overlaps with the credible interval of
Strapparava and Mihalcea (2010) in detecting
sentiment in headlines. The algorithm with the best
predictive power was the CLaC system that
”relies on a knowledge-based domain-independent
unsupervised approach to headline valence detection
and scoring. The system uses three main kinds
of knowledge: a list of sentiment-bearing words, a
list of valence shifters and a set of rules that
define the scope and the result of the combination of
sentiment-bearing words and valence shifters” (p.
28). This algorithm found a correlation of r = .48
for valence. The correlations with the other four
algorithms were all below r = .40. In comparison
to other studies, the sentiment analysis used in this
study revealed a rather high correlation. A more
recent study
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref39">(Preo¸tiuc-Pietro et al., 2016)</xref>
        found
a higher correlation of r = .65 between sentiment
analysis and subjective valence with a bag-of-words
linear regression model.
      </p>
      <p>When both measurement techniques were
combined in a model, the effect of lexical valence
predicting subjective valence was stronger than the
effect of the sentiment analysis. The β = 2.07 in
model 3 for sentiment means that an increase of
1 SD in the sentiment values corresponds to an
increase of 2.07 SDs in the predicted subjective
valence. Likewise, the β = 3.42 for lexical valence
means that an increase of 1 SD in the lexical
valence values corresponds to an increase of 3.42 SDs
in the predicted subjective valence. This stronger
effect of lexical analysis was also visible in the
correlations of each variables with subjective valence.
Both predictors correlate with each other (r = .50),
and therefore share a good part of their variance.
This explains that overlap between the credible
intervals of model 3 (sentiment and lexical analysis as
predictors) and model 2 (lexical analysis as
predictors). Nevertheless, we considered the information
gain of model 3 over model 2 to be large enough
and therefore favour model 3.</p>
      <p>
        It is known from literature that the difficulty of
texts has an impact on the emotions when reading
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref53 ref7">(e.g. Yin et al., 2014; Ben-David et al., 2016)</xref>
        . To
take this into account we investigated an additional
model 3+. One way to determine the text
difficulty is with the Flesh-Index
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16 ref2">(Flesch, 1948;
Amstad, 1978)</xref>
        . When this predictor was taken into
account in the model, only a very small effect could
be found. Therefore, we decided not to pursue this
additional variant any further. One reason for the
small effect of the Flesh-Index might be that when
selecting the texts at the beginning of the study we
made sure that none of the texts used had extreme
Flesch values in order to avoid biases of the
measurement results due to comprehension problems.
An explanation for the weaker performance of the
sentiment analysis compared to the lexical rating
may be that the 63 analysed texts were part of an
international database with emotional short texts
(Kaakinen et al., in preparation). In this context,
the emotional content of the entire text (not on
the word or sentence level) was assessed by student
raters. This differs from the method of sentiment
analysis, which was applied on each short story
but was trained on Twitter messages, i.e. sentence
level
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">(Cieliebak et al., 2017)</xref>
        . As in other studies,
the lexical analysis is based on the average valence
of words that previously were evaluated by
students
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref48">(Vo et al., 2009)</xref>
        . We assigned each word
of the short texts, which was also included in the
Berlin Affective Word List, its valence value and
averaged these values getting a mean value for each
short text. We assume that due to different aspects
of valence measured in the procedures mentioned,
the combination model and therefore the
combination of the different aspects of valence measured
achieved the best prediction values. However, in
order to actually conrfim this assumption we need
to further investigate whether the correlations
between the three measurements and the fit of the
different models remain at a lower taxonomic level,
i.e. at the sentence respectively word level instead
of the text level, and observe the predictive power
accordingly. Another question is whether the
combination of measurement techniques developed and
validated in a context other than short stories, such
as the sentiment analysis using tweets, is
appropriate, or whether it is better to use other techniques
developed in the same context. We are under the
impression, that the sentiment analysis applied in
this study did a pretty good job compared to other
procedures.
      </p>
      <p>There are some aspects to our approach that we
did not account for in this study that may be worth
exploring in future studies. One such aspect is the
perceived difficulty of the rating task since the
subjective ratings may be biased if the task is thought
to be either particularly easy or particularly
difficult. This concerns both the text ratings as well
as the ratings that resulted in the two analysis
approaches that rely on subjective expert ratings at
their very core. Another aspect worthy of
inspection is the discrepancy between human ratings and
both analysis approaches since they do not
necessarily align at all times. Exploring under which
circumstances they diverge may prove to be a
promising venture.
6</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-5">
      <title>Conclusions</title>
      <p>The results indicate that lexical and sentiment
analyses predict subjective appraisal of emotions
triggered by short texts. The two methods are not
redundant. It is therefore worthwhile analyzing
the emotional potential of texts applying both
measurement procedures. A next step is to repeat
these analyses on sentence and on word level to
check whether we get an even stronger predictive
power. We also need to examine the integration
of other text properties, including other semantic
parameters, into our analysis, as done by Jacobs
and Kinder (2017). The small effect gain of the
Flesch-Index can be interpreted as an indication
that non-emotional text properties could play a
role in the perception of emotions in a text.
The results found, for example, can contribute to
the development of new instructional designs that
measure emotional appraisals of students engaged
in digital learning tasks. Positive or negative
emotions in the texts or online-contributions of
students can be assessed in automated form and
transferred into instructional measures, and thus
help to integrate automated learning support into
feedback, hints or adaptive instructional design.
We need even more predictive power for useful
integration of such sensors, i.e. measurements
of emotional or affective properties of texts in
digital learning, in educational practice. From our
point of view, this can be achieved by combining
different measurement methods</p>
      <sec id="sec-5-1">
        <title>Acknowledgments</title>
        <p>A big ’Thank you’ to Yvonne Kammerer of the
Leibnitz-Institut fu¨r Wissensmedien in Tu¨bingen.
She organized the collecting of the text from
Germany, and the rating of the 63 texts that were
collected as part of a project in the COST Action
EREAD. We also thank Mark Cieliebak and Jan
Deriu for providing the sentiment prediction system
and the helpful discussions, and St´ephanie
McGarrity for proofreading and useful suggestions.</p>
        <p>PJ</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
  </body>
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