=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-2463/paper3
|storemode=property
|title=Creation of WPS Services: Case Study of Forest Dynamics Modeling
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2463/paper3.pdf
|volume=Vol-2463
|authors=Anastasia K. Popova
|dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/itams/Popova19
}}
==Creation of WPS Services: Case Study of Forest Dynamics Modeling==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2463/paper3.pdf
Creation of WPS Services: Case Study of Forest
Dynamics Modeling
Anastasia K. Popova [0000-0001-6209-678X]
Matrosov Institute for System Dynamics and Control Theory, Siberian Branch of Russian
Academy of Sciences, Lermontov st. 134, Irkutsk, Russia
chudnenko@icc.ru
Abstract. The article is devoted to the creation of WPS services for the geopor-
tal using the case study of an online service for modeling the dynamics of forest
resources. The resulting service works on the basis of a mathematical model of
the dynamics of forest areas of a subregional level according to age classes in
time and space. Verification of the selected mathematical model was carried out
previously, for which the data of real observations and calculated values were
compared. The service displays the simulation results on the geoportal in the
form of a thematic map of the region. The map legend corresponds to the calcu-
lation results: dark shades indicate an increase in forest areas of the selected ter-
ritory, light shades indicate their decrease over the calculation period. In con-
clusion, the directions of further development of the created online service for
modeling the dynamics of forest resources are given.
Keywords: Forest Resource Dynamic, WPS Services, Forest Modelling, Geo-
portal.
1 Introduction
Modeling the forest resources dynamics helps to make forecasts of the development
of the territory depending on the impact of natural and anthropogenic factors. The
accuracy of the result is affected by the level of the model and the number of factors
considered. Such forecasts provide information for analyzing the situation and making
administrative decisions.
The paper describes a modeling system implemented in the form of an online geo-
portal service. This approach simplifies the use of the forecasting algorithm - to start
the calculations users do not need to install the software system, the only need a regu-
lar browser.
___________________________________
Copyright © 2019 for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative Com-
mons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
2 Forest Dynamic Modelling
2.1 Mathematical model
Modeling in the work is based on the model of forest resources of the subregional
level “Dynamics of stands”. This model is based on the works of A.K. Cherkashin
[3], taking into account the studies of [1-2, 4-6] and describes the dynamics of the
distribution of forest areas by species and age classes in time and space.
The “Dynamics of stands” consists of a system of differential equations represent-
ed by formulas (1-3):
𝑑𝑑𝑆𝑆𝑁𝑁
= −𝑎𝑎𝑁𝑁0 𝑆𝑆𝑁𝑁 (𝑡𝑡) + 𝑢𝑢𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 𝑁𝑁 (𝑡𝑡); (1)
𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
𝑑𝑑𝑆𝑆0
= 𝑎𝑎𝑁𝑁0 𝑆𝑆𝑁𝑁 (𝑡𝑡) − 𝑎𝑎01 𝑆𝑆0 (𝑡𝑡) + 𝑢𝑢𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 0 (𝑡𝑡) + 𝑢𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 0 (𝑡𝑡) − 𝑢𝑢𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 0 (𝑡𝑡) (2)
𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
𝑑𝑑𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑖
= 𝑎𝑎𝑖𝑖−1𝑖𝑖 𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑖−1 (𝑡𝑡) − 𝑎𝑎𝑖𝑖 𝑖𝑖+1 𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑖 (𝑡𝑡) − 𝑢𝑢𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 𝑖𝑖 (𝑡𝑡) − 𝑢𝑢𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 𝑖𝑖 (𝑡𝑡) − 𝑢𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑖𝑖 (𝑡𝑡) + 𝑎𝑎𝐾𝐾1 𝑆𝑆𝐾𝐾 (𝑡𝑡) (3)
𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
where aij are the coefficients of transition from one category of land or age group to
the next;
SN is the non-forest area;
S0 is an area that is uncovered by forest;
Si is forest areas of different classes of age;
unon i is annual increase in non-forest area;
uncov i is increase in the area uncovered by forest;
ucut i is the area of cutting.
The increase in non-forest area in the process of forest exploitation is as follows:
𝑢𝑢𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 = 𝑘𝑘𝑁𝑁 ∆𝑁𝑁 + ∆𝑆𝑆 + ∆𝑅𝑅 + ∆𝐺𝐺 + ∆𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 + ∆𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵, (4)
where kN is the area of settlements per person, the remaining coefficients characterize
the increase of forest population, ∆N, agricultural area, ∆S , recreational zones, ∆R,
area of fields, ∆G, construction of linear objects, ∆Bl, and maintenance of hydraulic
structures, ∆Bv.
The increase in the area uncovered by forest taken into account such factors:
𝑢𝑢𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 = 𝑆𝑆𝑔𝑔 + 𝑆𝑆𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 + 𝑆𝑆𝑏𝑏 (5)
where Sg is an area of fires; Snas is area of insect damage; Sb is an area of forest diseas-
es.
2.2 Verification of the model
Verification of the adequacy of the model and coefficients of transition aij is done on
the base of forestry input data of Baikal region for 1973. Input includes the distribu-
tion of forest areas by age categories, volumes of cuttings, fires and forest plantations
on the territory of 53 forest districts. Computations for the model were conducted for
an interval of 45 years. The final results of the simulation were compared with the
available data on forest areas for 2017, obtained from the official «Forest Plan of the
Irkutsk Region».
It was taken into account that in 2008 the Ust-Ordynsky Buryat Autonomous Area
with the area of 22,138 thousand km2 was united with the Baikal region. Forest dis-
tricts placed on its territory were not included in the final results for 2017. The total
areas of different age categories for all forestry were calculated for comparison.
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Non-forested Uncovered Young Middle-aged Maturing Mature and
over-mature
Data of 1973 Data of 2017
Calculated data
Fig. 1. Chart of comparison of calculated and real data.
As can be seen from Table 1, the dynamics of areas change of different categories
according to real and calculated data is the same. Non-forest areas and covered with
mature and over-mature forest plantations have slightly decreased; uncovered, the
area of young, middle-aged and maturing are increased. The difference between sta-
tistical and forecast data is due to the lack of accurate information on fires and the
volume of all cutting over a period of 45 years. Some areas of Baikal region are diffi-
cult to access or inaccessible, hence, a regular forest pathological examination is dif-
ficult there.
Table 1. Comparison of real and calculated data.
Actual data, years
Area type Simulation Error, %
1973-1985 2017
Non-forested 5108,223 4670,194 4401,66 5,75
Uncovered 3273,893 3032,455 3166,37 4,42
Young 12161,067 12847,546 12044,61 6,25
Middle-aged 12648,814 13411,571 13137,08 2,05
Maturing 5783,593 6170,173 6215,15 0,73
Mature and over-
24444,429 24128,406 23089,60 4,3
mature
In the last column of Table 1 is the calculated relative error of the forecasting. The
formula of the error is as follows:
|𝑆𝑆𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 −𝑆𝑆𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 |
Е= ∗ 100%, (6)
𝑆𝑆𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡
where Scalc is simulation data, Strue is actual data.
The relative error should not exceed 10% for the model to be considered valid. In
"Dynamics of stands" the average error was 3.43%, therefore this model can be used
for predictive simulation and assessment of the trends of the general dynamics of
forest resources under influence of various management decisions.
2.3 WPS Service
The web service was created for use on the portal of IDSTU SB RAS. The service is
written in JavaScript, the open library Leaflet is used to display the map. The table
with the initial data is uploaded by the user to the geoportal, the service receives the
data through a JSON request. To form a scenario, it is necessary to specify the length
of the calculation period in years, the volumes of felling, fires and economic impact.
Next, the calculation algorithm begins using a mathematical model, which at the end
gives the predicted value of the forest areas of each age class for all forestries.
To build a visual map based on the calculation results, for each section of the terri-
tory its dynamics is calculated - the difference between the forest area in the last and
first years of the modeling period. Then, the difference obtained is divided by the total
forestry area to obtain relative values. According to these values, all forest areas are
divided into four categories, each of which has its own color value. The service trans-
fers the received information in the GeoJSON format to the geoportal, where the re-
sult map is displayed using the Leaflet.
Fig. 2. Map with calculation results for Irkutsk region.
3 Conclusions
The created online service helps to model the dynamics of forest resources, taking
into account the impact of natural and anthropogenic factors. Users interact with ser-
vice through the geoportal, setting the initial calculation parameters, which form the
scenarios of forest resources changes. The calculation results are presented to the user
in the form of tables and maps. Tables represent total values for each year from a
given period for each land category and tree age class. It is intended for deeper analy-
sis of the simulation results. The map shows the result of calculations in a visual form
for a quick assessment of the scenario of the forest resources dynamics.
The verification of used model "Dynamics of stands" was made before start of the
simulations. The calculated data for a period of 45 years based on available data on
the forests of Irkutsk region for 1973 were compared with the actual data for 2017. As
a result, the accuracy of the model is 3.43% with an allowable relative error of 10%,
therefore, "Dynamics of stands" can be used to assess the consequences of manage-
ment decisions for the territories of the rank of forestry and the region.
In the future, it is planned to develop the service - supplementing it with lower-
level models that consider the forest dynamics of small areas and therefore allow you
to build more accurate forecasts. It is also promising to combine calculations with
other services that can provide additional information for analysis - these are services
that make available information about the weather, the road network, and the anthro-
pogenic load on the territory.
4 Acknowledgments
The work was carried out with financial support Integration program ISC SB RAS.
Results are achieved using the Centre of collective usage «Integrated information
network of Irkutsk scientific educational complex».
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