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<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Prioritization of EA Debts Facilitating Portfolio Theory</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Yoon Chow Yeong</string-name>
          <email>yeongyoonchow@gmail.com</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Simon Hacks</string-name>
          <email>shacks@kth.se</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Horst Lichter</string-name>
          <email>lichter@swc.rwth-aachen.de</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Division of Network and Systems Engineering, KTH Royal Institute of Technology</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Stockholm</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="SE">Sweden</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>Research Group Software Construction, RWTH Aachen University</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Aachen</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="DE">Germany</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2">
          <label>2</label>
          <institution>Universiti Teknologi Petronas</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>Perak Darul Ridzuan</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="MY">Malaysia</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date>
        <year>2019</year>
      </pub-date>
      <fpage>45</fpage>
      <lpage>52</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>-Implementing an enterprise architecture (EA) project might not always be a success due to uncertainty and unavailability of resources. Hitherto, we have proposed a new metaphor -Enterprise Architecture Debt (EAD)-, which makes bad habits within EAs explicit. We anticipate that the accumulation of EAD will negatively influence EA quality, also expose the business into risk. Recognizing the importance of business-IT alignment in enterprise architecture context, this paper proposes an application of portfolio-based thinking and utility theory for EAD prioritization. For proof-of-concept purpose, we develop synthetic data using coarse-grained estimates to demonstrate the application of the proposed portfolio-based approach which helps to determine the optimum selection of EAD to be resolved. The results show that our approach can help EA practitioners and management to reason their EA investment decisions based on the EAD concept, with adjustable enterprises risk tolerance level. Index Terms-Enterprise Architecture Management, Enterprise Architecture Debt (EAD), Portfolio Theory, EA Portfolio Optimization, Utility Theory</p>
      </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>I. INTRODUCTION</title>
      <p>
        Technical debt is a metaphor that had been introduced
by Cunningham [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ]. In the software development industry,
technical debt is regarded as a critical issue in terms of
the negative consequences such as increased software
development cost, low product quality, decreased maintainability,
and slowed progress to the long-term success of developing
software [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2">2</xref>
        ]. Technical debt describes the delayed technical
development activities for getting short-term payoffs such as
a timely release of a specific software [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ]. Seaman et al.
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ] described technical debt as a situation in which software
developers accept compromises in one dimension to meet an
urgent demand in another dimension and eventually resulted
in higher costs to restore the health of the system in future.
      </p>
      <p>
        Furthermore, technical debt is explained as the effect of
immature software artifacts, which requires extra effort on
software maintenance in the future [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ]. The concept of
technical debt reflects technical compromises that provide
shortterm benefit by sacrificing the long-term health of a software
system [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ]. In view of the original idea of technical debt that
focused on the code level in software implementation, the
concept had been extended to software architecture,
documentation, requirements, and testing [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ]. While the technical debt
metaphor has further extended to include database design debt,
which describes the immature database design decisions [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ],
the context of technical debt is still limited to the technological
aspects.
      </p>
      <p>
        Over the years, technical debt becomes increasingly
important when organizations invest huge amounts of money
in IT to stay competitive, effective, and efficient. However,
it is vital to align IT and business in order to realize the
full benefits and potentials of those IT investments [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ]. From
there, the concept of Enterprise Architecture (EA) has evolved
as a method to facilitate the alignment of IT systems and
business strategies within dynamic and complex organizations
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ]. Consequently, the huge interest in EA resulted in vast
scientific contributions that address a broad thematic spectrum
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
        ], including EA frameworks, EA management, and EA
tools. However, there is a lack of insight into the application of
the debt concept to include not only the technological aspects
addressed by technical debt, but also the business aspects.
Adapting the concept of technical debt in the EA domain,
hitherto we have proposed a new metaphor “Enterprise
Architecture debt (EAD)” to provide a holistic view [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>In the real world, debt is not necessarily a negative thing
to incur, same goes to EA debt to be held in an enterprise.
The danger of debt comes into place when there is no proper
debt management approach to prioritize, which debt should be
repaid as soon as possible. We predict that managing EA debt
will be one of the critical success factors of EA
implementation and, thus, there is tremendous need to allocate resource
effectively to maintain the current level of profitability by
properly managing EA debts that exist in an enterprise.</p>
      <p>
        Numerous studies have been dealing with the approaches to
prioritize technical debt in the domain of software engineering
[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ]–[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ], [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ], [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13</xref>
        ]–[
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">16</xref>
        ], and yet these studies do not address
the business aspects as a whole EA. To fill the research
gap, this study aims to extend the application of portfolio
theory into the concept of EA debt. This will be achieved by
focusing on the following research questions:
(RQ1) How can a given set of EA debt items be prioritized
based on a portfolio approach?
      </p>
      <p>The following list of research sub-questions are emerged
from the main research question which is mentioned as above:
advantage of diversification can be achieved through the
portfolio return maximization for a given level of portfolio
risk, or the portfolio risk minimization for a given level of
portfolio return.</p>
      <p>
        The expected return of a portfolio is expressed by the
following equation [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17">17</xref>
        ]:
      </p>
      <p>E =</p>
      <p>
        N
X wi i
i=1
where E is the portfolio’s return, wi is the weight of asset i in
the portfolio, the sum of all weights w has to be 1, and i is
the expected return of asset i. On the other hand, the portfolio
variance of return is calculated as follows [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17">17</xref>
        ]:
      </p>
      <p>V (E) =</p>
      <p>N N
X wi2 i2 + 2 X wiwj ij
i=1 i&lt;j
(RQ1.1) What attributes of EA debt should be contained in a
portfolio-based prioritization model?
(RQ1.2) What are the process steps required to prioritize EA
debt items based on a portfolio thinking?</p>
      <p>This study proposes a portfolio-based approach to prioritize
EA debt that exists in EA implementation by incorporating the
portfolio thinking and utility theory into EA. This proposed
approach contributes to the theoretical body of knowledge by
providing a fundamental understanding on how EA debt items
can be conceptualized and measured for decision-making. It
is strongly believed that this approach can measure, manage,
and prioritize debt on an enterprise-wide level, which can be
valuable to EA stakeholders by avoiding massive interests on
EA debt. In light of the novel introduction of the EA debt
metaphor, it is foreseen that EA debt decision-making would
be a worthwhile subject for future research in the EA field.</p>
      <p>The rest of this paper is structured as follows: First, we
introduce the facilitated key concepts of modern portfolio
theory and utility theory. Second, we present in Section III
how we apply the concepts of portfolio theory and utility
theory (Section III-A), and depict a process, which guides
the prioritization (Section III-B). Next, we demonstrate our
approach on a fictitious case study in Section IV and present
related work (Section V). Last, we conclude our work in
Section VI.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>II. KEY CONCEPTS</title>
      <sec id="sec-2-1">
        <title>A. Modern Portfolio Theory</title>
        <p>
          In the finance domain, Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT)
was originally developed by Markowitz [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17">17</xref>
          ]. The goal of this
theory is to develop an approach to determine an efficient
portfolio with the maximum return at a given level of risk
or the minimum risk at a given level of return. Based on
this, decisions can be made of which types and amounts of
financial assets in a portfolio should be invested or divested
[
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17">17</xref>
          ], [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref18">18</xref>
          ]. The investments can be stocks, bonds, or other
financial products that are characterized by a return at a certain
level of risk. The development of MPT was based on the rule
that investors should consider expected or anticipated return as
a desirable thing, whereas variance of return as an undesirable
thing. In MPT, a portfolio is a weighted combination of assets
in which each asset’s return and variance of the return are used
to measure the portfolio performance [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17">17</xref>
          ].
        </p>
        <p>
          The fundamental concept behind MPT emphasizes the
importance of evaluating the relationship between price changes
in each asset and price changes in every other asset in
the portfolio [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref19">19</xref>
          ]. Each individual financial asset generates
different level of return and risk and, thus, the introduction of
MPT seeks to minimize the total variance of the investment
portfolio’s return through the concept of diversification. The
diversification allows investors to combine different assets
whose returns are not perfectly positively correlated. By wisely
deciding on the proportions of various financial assets, the
(1)
(2)
(3)
where V (E) is the portfolio’s return variance, i is the return
variance of individual asset i, and ij is the covariance
between the assets i and j. The portfolio’s standard deviation,
P can then be computed as follows:
        </p>
        <p>P = pV (E)</p>
        <p>
          Often, MPT relies on historical variance of financial assets’
returns to measure the risk. Unfortunately, projects that involve
non-financial assets commonly do not have well-defined
historical variance for absolute objective measurement [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref19">19</xref>
          ].
However, Omisore et al. [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref19">19</xref>
          ] asserted that this does not eliminate
the possibility of applying MPT to non-financial assets because
the concept is transferable to a wide range of investments as
long as the “risk” is expressed in terms of uncertainty about
expectations and possible losses on forecasts. Therefore, in EA
debt context, we express risk in term of “chance of interest
growth”, which brings the risk of an increased amount of
required effort to resolve an EA debt item in future phase
as well as the negative impacts on the EA value.
        </p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-2">
        <title>B. Utility Function and Risk Aversion</title>
        <p>
          In general, most investors require a greater return as
compensation for taking a greater risk [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref19">19</xref>
          ]. Nevertheless, investors
differ in their level of risk tolerance, which means that they
are risk averse to varying degrees and eventually leads to
different utility functions [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref20">20</xref>
          ]. The concept of utility function
provides a way to select the optimal portfolio that yields
the best trade-offs of return and risk, and gives the most
satisfaction (utility) to the investors, taking their risk tolerance
level into consideration [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref21">21</xref>
          ]. This can be applied in the
enterprise context where each profit-seeking enterprise differs
in the amount of risk it is willing to accept at a given level of
return.
        </p>
        <p>
          To address the differences in enterprises’ risk tolerance
level, our approach proposes to prioritize EA debt portfolio
for repayment based on the portfolio theory along with the
principle of expected utility maximization. The utility
maximization principle states that a rational investor acts to choose
an investment that maximizes the expected utility of wealth
among a set of feasible investment alternatives [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref20">20</xref>
          ]. The
similar concept can be applied in the context of EA debt in
which an enterprise should act to invest in paying off the EA
debt portfolio that maximizes the expected utility of resources
among a set of existing EA debt portfolios.
        </p>
        <p>
          Since risk aversion is not an objectively measurably quantity
that aims for absolute measure, there is no unique utility
function, which comes into place. Carlsson et al. [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref21">21</xref>
          ] reported
that one of the commonly employed utility function is:
U (P ) = RP
where RP is the expected return of a portfolio, A is an index of
the investor’s risk aversion coefficient (a higher index indicates
a higher level of risk averseness), and P2 is the variance of
the portfolio’s expected rate of return, which is the square
of standard deviation, P , a measure of portfolio risk. The
risk aversion coefficient is meant to be positive for all
riskaverse investors whereas a negative index indicates a
riskloving investor [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref18">18</xref>
          ].
        </p>
        <p>
          The factor of 0.005 in Equation (4) is a scaling convention
and normalizing factor that allows us to express the RP and
P2 as a percentage value instead of decimals. Adhering the
positive affine transformation property of a utility function,
we are allowed to scale a utility function by translating it
with the addition and/or subtraction of any constant [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref20">20</xref>
          ]. To
further scale down the size of variance for easy interpretation
in our study, we reduce the factor of 0.005 in Equation (4) to
0.001.
        </p>
        <p>In this work, we apply the altered Equation (4) to plot
riskindifference curves (also known as utility curves) which allows
us to select the attainable and optimum debt portfolio by
combining the curves with the risk-return trade-off plots. Having
to say that the single point where one of the curves intersects
the efficient frontier is the debt portfolio that provides the best
combination of risk-return for the risk level that is acceptable
for the organization.</p>
        <p>III. APPLYING MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY TO</p>
        <p>ENTERPRISE ARCHITECTURE DEBT</p>
        <p>
          In the field of Information Systems (IS), it is common
to apply theories that originates from a diverse set of
disciplines such as psychology, sociology, economics, finance, and
computer science for problem-solving at the intersection of
people, information technology, and organizations [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref22">22</xref>
          ]. Based
on the definition of EA debt presented by Hacks et al. [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
          ],
this work suggests the application of portfolio thinking into
EA debt context with the aim of expanding the visibility and
understanding of the newly introduced metaphor.
        </p>
        <p>
          Technically, EA is responsible for translating the
organizations strategy into projects that result in the achievement of a
target state of the enterprise [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
          ]. The gap between the target
(to-be) architecture and the current (as-is) architecture is to
be filled by identifying and implementing projects, programs,
or initiatives. However, the required resources to achieve the
goal of a project, program, or initiative are limited in terms of
budget, time and performance specifications [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref23">23</xref>
          ].
        </p>
        <p>
          With inadequate resources and other forms of constraints,
there are situations where we need to compromise certain
principles, goals etc. in the first EA life cycle phase. Any
omission of business and IT aspects inevitably leads to an
incomplete view of the EA concerned and may result in an
EA debt. As described by TOGAF [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref24">24</xref>
          ], the Architecture
Development Cycle (ADM) is a method to develop an EA in
a continuous and iterative manner. From there, we anticipate
that the existing EA debt somehow needs to be repaid in
the future EA life cycle phase and, thus, EA practitioners,
IT representatives, and management are accountable to make
decisions on which EA debt item needs to be repaid first in
order to avoid higher future cost.
        </p>
        <p>It is expected that the accumulation of EA debt in an EA
project will significantly affect the quality of an EA such as
its maintainability and agility in responding to the rapidly
changing business environments. Oppositely, if the EA debt is
managed effectively, it is expected to increase the EA value.
In other words, EA debt is analogous to a financial asset that
generates return at a certain amount of risk. We expect that
EA debt prioritization helps to effectively pay off the EA debt
and, in turn, the EA can be adapted towards the new business
requirements.</p>
        <p>In view of the similarity between financial investment and
incurring EA debt, we realize a potential of mapping the
concept of financial portfolio management to the EA debt
context.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-3">
        <title>A. How to Measure EA debts</title>
        <p>An organization, which intends to implement EA, consists
of numerous EA projects for enterprise transformation, e.g.
adding new business processes or retiring applications. This
study reasons that EA debt items inevitably exist in each
project. EA debt items could be the failure of removing
outdated elements in diagrams, a missing implementation
standard, undefined business role definitions, outdated
technological structure, etc. EA debt prioritization is a decision-making
process that involves determining, which EA debt portfolio is
optimal to pay off in the current phase. By examining the EA
debt items across business and IT layers, an enterprise can gain
a better understanding of EA debt embedded along the process
of EA implementation. Having EA debt properly assessed and
being paid off in line with the long-term business mission and
goals, we can ensure that the resources are utilized efficiently.
In short, EA debt measurement urges a new way of thinking
of technical debt as an integrated part of the organization’s
business aspects.</p>
        <p>
          In order to apply financial portfolio theory to EA debt,
we need to quantify EA debt for measurement. Therefore,
we derive a set of operational definitions in line with the
financial definitions in portfolio theory that conform to the
common assumptions of existing technical debt studies [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
          ],
[
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
          ]. Based on existing technical debt literature [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
          ], [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
          ], [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
          ],
[
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15">15</xref>
          ], [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref25">25</xref>
          ], each EA debt item has its associated principal
estimate, interest estimate, and expected return. Despite the
unit used for technical debt measurement in dollars, hours,
Measurement
attribute
Principal (X)
Interest amount
(IA)
people, or work units, these figures are easy to interpret and
to handle, because they serve as a common language, allowing
trend monitoring as well as historical data comparison [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">16</xref>
          ].
This study opts to use working hours as measurement unit.
Each measurement attribute is summarized in Table I.
        </p>
        <p>Referring to Table I, we give an instance to provide an
insight into how each measurement unit can be represented.
Once an EA debt item is incurred in an EA project, a certain
amount of working time is required to resolve the EA debt,
which is denoted by principal (X ). For instance, due to an
enterprise architect’s careless examination, one of the outdated
elements in a use case diagram of System A was not removed.
This EA debt item incurs an debt which requires a principal
of 20 min to update the use case diagram immediately, at
time 0 (t0). However, if this particular debt item is held to a
future phase (tn), this will cause faultiness in clarifying system
requirements being developed and eventually affects progress
of system development.</p>
        <p>As such, this EA debt item carries an interest amount
(I A) of 16 min, which is the extra hours required in the
future to identify and correct the faultiness, which already
brings negative impacts. Unfortunately, this interest amount
is uncertain in such a way that it is assumed to fluctuate over
time depending on the scope, complexity, and impact of the
components that the EA debt item is associated with at the time
of repayment. In this case, if the EA debt item is held until
time 3, t3, the interest amount, is very likely to increase from
I At1 = 16 to I At4 = 96 min, because the EA debt item is
now not only bringing negative impacts to the planning phase,
but also the development phase. This uncertainty of interest
growth rate in the future represents the risk level of an EA
debt item, because the EA debt item with high interest growth
rate accumulate interest faster, which brings a higher future
cost, which can be expressed as interest standard deviation
( d). If the interest growth rate of a particular EA debt item
is not likely to grow or its growing rate is much lower than
other EA debt items, this indicates that the debt payment can
be deferred in a way that it carries lower risk.</p>
        <p>On the other hand, the expected return of an EA debt item
at time t can be understood as the number of working hours
that can be saved by paying the debt at t0. The expected return
is calculated using the following equation:</p>
        <p>Rdt = (X (1 + I A )t) X; (5)</p>
        <p>X
where Rdt is the individual EA debt item’s expected return at
time t, X is the principal, and I A is the interest amount of
the EA debt item.</p>
        <p>
          To fit in the MPT model, we need to determine the “weight”
of each EA debt item (wd) and “correlations with other EA
debt items” for each of the identified EA debt items. We
assume that an EA debt portfolio contains all EA debt items in
equal proportions, in a way that, Pw2W wdi = 1. On the other
hand, we adapt the idea of Guo and Seaman [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
          ] to use
correlation coefficients to represent the correlation between two
debt items, where CORij expresses the correlation between
di and dj . Since an EA debt portfolio is made up with multiple
EA debt items across multiple architectural layers, determining
the correlations between EA debts requires analysis of all
EA entities embedded in EAM activities as well as
interoperability between architecture entities and architecture domains.
A reliable estimation of correlations could be done through
dependency analysis [
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
          ]. For simplicity, we consider that the
correlation coefficient would be either 1 (two debt items are
related to each other) or 0 (two debt items are unrelated to
each other). With the value of correlation coefficients, a
covariance matrix can be created by computing:
ij =
        </p>
        <p>di dj CORij ;
where ij is the co-variance between debt items i and j.</p>
        <p>With all the measurement attributes required in the MPT
model, the expected return, variance, and standard deviation of
an EA debt portfolio can be computed using the equations (7),
(9), and (10), respectively. The expected return of an EA debt
portfolio at time t is the weighted sum of its EA debt items’
expected returns:
with one constraint as presented in the following equation:
n
RPt = X wdi Rdti ;</p>
        <p>i=1
n
X wdi = 1:
i=1</p>
        <p>On the other hand, the variance of the portfolio’s return,
which indicates the probabilities that the set of EA debt items
will return different levels of benefits, is expressed as:
n n
P2 = X wd2i d2i + 2 X
i=1 i&lt;j
wdi wdj ij</p>
        <p>The EA debt portfolio’s standard deviation, P can then be
computed as follows:</p>
        <p>P =
q 2</p>
        <p>P</p>
        <p>As in practice, it is difficult to estimate and accurately model
the exact amount of consequences of an EA debt item. Initially,
when an EA debt item associated with each layer is identified,
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
the principal, interest amount, and interest growth rate is
estimated subjectively according to the enterprise architects
experience. These rough estimations can then be adjusted
using historical data that was collected throughout the EA life
cycle. The more accurate and detailed the data is, the more
reliable the estimation. The following section demonstrates
how the proposed approach can be applied to reason about
prioritization decisions.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-2-4">
        <title>B. Application Process</title>
        <p>To apply portfolio theory and utility function to prioritize
EA debt items for debt repayment, we need to ensure that
the considerations mentioned in Section III-A are taken into
account in order to map the portfolio model to EA debt
measurement. Following, we propose a series of steps to
identify the optimal EA debt portfolio based on portfolio model
(cf. Figure 1). On top of that, with the application of utility
function, enterprise architects can reason and justify about
EA debt repayment decisions based on the enterprises risk
tolerance level. The basic steps of our proposed prioritization
approach are stated as follows:
1) Identify a project involved in EA implementation to
achieve the target (to-be) architecture and let P be its
EA debt portfolio.
2) Identify the associated EA debt items, di j 8i 2
f1; 2; :::; ng. This step is important, as not only debt
items in the IT domain, but also in the business domain
are identified.
3) For each EA debt item, di, estimate the principal (Xdi ),
interest amount (IAdi ), interest growth rate/interest
standard deviation ( di ), weights (wdi ) and the correlations
with other debt items (CORdi;j ).
4) For each EA debt item, di, determine the values of
portfolio model, which are the expected return (Rdi )
and the covariance matrix ( ij ) using Equation (5) and
Equation (6), respectively.
5) Run the portfolio model on the available data to
determine the expected return (RP ), variance ( P2 ) and
standard deviation ( P ) of the EA debt portfolio.
6) Repeat steps 1-5 for all EA projects.
7) Identify the efficient EA debt portfolios. The efficient
debt portfolios are the ones that lie on the efficient
frontier and give the best return-risk trade-off if the debt
is repaid at the current EA phase.
8) Determine the enterprise’s risk aversion coefficient. For
simplicity, this study ranges risk aversion coefficients
from 1.0 to 5.0, with the lower number representing
higher tolerance to risk.
9) Apply the utility function (Equation (4)) to calculate the
risk-indifference curves.
10) Identify and prioritize the optimum portfolio where the
utility curve intersects at the efficient frontier.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>IV. CASE STUDY For proof-of-concept purpose, we applied a synthetic case study and artificial data was generated accordingly based on</title>
      <p>the proposed steps described in Section III-B. Coarse-grained
estimates of EA debt items’ properties have been made and
we acknowledge that it is sufficient for measuring the EA debt
items for preliminary prioritization decision-making. Estimates
that are more detailed can be made when more real-world
information is available upon which to base the estimates.</p>
      <p>We considered that a Company ABC can choose from five
projects to support the enterprise transition from a current EA
to a target EA in order to improve business-IT alignment.
Along the EA implementation life cycle, various types of EA
debt items incurred in each EA project.</p>
      <p>To provide a better understanding of our proposed approach,
the following data demonstrates the application of portfolio
theory and utility function in the context of EA debt
prioritization to show how an optimal EA debt portfolio can be
identified and prioritized for decision-making.</p>
      <p>Step 1: Identify an EA project: Project A (also known as
EA debt portfolio A).</p>
      <p>Step 2: Identify the associated EA debt items across the
four architectural layers. See Table II.</p>
      <p>Step 3: Estimate the principal, interest amount and interest
growth rate of each EA debt item. See Table III.</p>
      <p>Step 4: Compute the expected return and covariance matrix
for each EA debt item. See Table IV.</p>
      <p>Step 5: Run the portfolio model to compute the expected
return, variance, and standard deviation of the EA debt
portfolio. See Table V first row.</p>
      <p>TABLE II</p>
      <p>LIST OF EADS IN DEBT PORTFOLIO A</p>
      <p>Step 6: Identify other EA projects and repeat steps 2-5.
Table V displays the computed portfolio’s expected return and
risk of five projects.</p>
      <p>Step 7: Identify the efficient EA debt portfolios. As shown
in Figure 2, debt portfolio A and B are inefficient portfolio
because other portfolios can offer higher return at the similar
level of risk or a lower risk at the similar level of return.</p>
      <p>Step 8: Define the enterprise’s risk aversion coefficient.
Company ABC has a risk aversion coefficient value of 2.</p>
      <p>Step 9: For visualization, calculate and plot the
riskindifference curves. See Figure 3 for exemplary curves for
the utility values of 4,6,8, and 10.</p>
      <p>Step 10: Identify the optimum portfolio for prioritization
by solving Eq. 4 for every portfolio. The risk-return scatter
plot in Figure 4 indicates that EA debt portfolio C is the
optimum portfolio that provides best risk-return trade-offs and
maximum satisfaction, as it (almost) based on the utility curve
of 10.</p>
      <p>Our synthetic case study shows that our approach is
applicable in general. However, further research is necessary to enable
enterprises to apply our approach in practice. Especially, steps
3 and 4 might be extremely challenging, due to missing
experience in the field. To tackle step 3, we suggest collecting
and documenting possible EA debt items and provide them as
catalogs to the community. These catalogs can help to identify
possible debt items and serve as a discussion basis to get a
deeper understanding of the domain.</p>
      <p>Step 4 requires the determination of the measurement
attributes, which are needed to calculate the optimal portfolio.
However, those attributes usually will be not obvious as for
financial assets. Therefore, future research should elaborate on
methods that enable practitioners to assess this attributes in an
easy manner.</p>
      <p>
        Despite the vast attention have been paid to technical debt,
to our best knowledge, there is no existing approach to
prioritize EA debt items as this metaphor is recently proposed
by us [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12">12</xref>
        ]. Therefore, existing prioritization approaches have
been studied in the context of technical debt.
      </p>
      <p>
        Technical debt management (TDM) is composed of a
sequence set of activities to prevent technical debt from being
incurred or manage existing technical debt to maintain it under
a desirable level [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ]. TDM activities include TD
identification, TD measurement, TD prioritization, TD prevention,
TD monitoring, TD repayment, TD documentation, and TD
communication [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ]. Technical debt prioritization is considered
as one of the TDM activities in which the identified technical
debt items are ranked based on predefined rules to decide
either immediate repayment or deferred repayment on the debt
items [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ]. Existing studies have discussed four decision
approaches to deal with technical debt prioritization for complex
decision-making: Cost-benefit analysis [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ], Remediation cost
analysis [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">16</xref>
        ], Real Options [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13</xref>
        ] and Portfolio theory [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ], [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ].
Meanwhile, the systematic literature review on the financial
aspect of managing technical debt conducted by Ampatzoglou
et al. [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref25">25</xref>
        ] concluded that the three most popular financial
approaches are cost/benefit analysis, real-options analysis, and
portfolio management.
      </p>
      <p>
        Simple cost-benefit analysis: A simple cost-benefit
approach was proposed to prioritize technical debt in terms of
which classes should be re-factored first [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ]. Each technical
debt item consists of the estimations of three metrics:
principal, interest probability, and interest amount. This approach
prioritize code level debts based on the impact of the God
classes on the software maintainability and correctness.
      </p>
      <p>
        Remediation cost analysis: Moreover, the SQALE
(Software Quality Assessment Based on Life-cycle Expectations)
method with Sonar tool was proposed to analyze technical
debt that associated with an application source code [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">16</xref>
        ]. The
authors proposed the synthesis of SQALE Quality and SQALE
E
      </p>
      <p>C</p>
      <p>D
B</p>
      <p>A
Utility = 4
Utility = 6
Utility = 8
Utility = 10</p>
      <p>0:8
0:2</p>
      <p>0:4 0:6</p>
      <p>Portfolio Risk</p>
      <p>Fig. 3. Risk-indifference curves when risk aversion coefficient=2
Analysis model to measure technical debt in terms of the
distance between the codes current quality state and its target
state to indicate the quality of an application. On top of that,
remediation index was used to represent the remediation cost
of corrective actions required to resolve the non-compliance
associated with each component of the applications software
code.</p>
      <p>
        Real-options approach: Another existing approach is
incorporating real options thinking into the valuation of technical
debt. Technically, the concept of a real option is about a right
to make a future decision without any obligation depending
on the way uncertainty is resolved. In other words, purchasing
the real option is analogous to investing in paying off technical
debt that facilitates future software changes. The real options
theory was applied to effectively deal with unpredictable
changes in system requirement engineering, time period, and
development cost [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13">13</xref>
        ]. The proposed approach considers the
risk associated with technical debt decisions to manage the
value of an organization’s strategic flexibility.
      </p>
      <p>
        Portfolio theory: Furthermore, a portfolio approach was
proposed to assist in decision-making in which technical debt
items should be repaid and which one should be held for
technical debt management [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ], [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ]. The measurement units
embedded in portfolio model, such as expected return, return
variance, and return standard deviation are mapped to the
context of technical debt management. Each technical debt
item was viewed as an asset and the application of portfolio
mathematical formulation into a portfolio of debt items helps
software developers to decide which technical debt items
should be repaid first in order to minimize the future
maintenance cost. Also, the portfolio theory was integrated into
goal-obstacle method to specifically deal with requirements
compliance debt [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref15">15</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>Our approach differs from those works in two aspects.
First, we broaden the scope of technical debt to the entire
organization and propose a mapping of EA debt properties to
portfolio theory properties. Second, the existing literature on
applying portfolio theory to technical debt lacks an explicit
description of its application, while we do.</p>
      <p>
        Benchmarking and portfolio matrix: Instead of prioritizing
technical debt in general, Plo¨sch et al. [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14">14</xref>
        ] focus particularly
on design debt, which is incurred due to the violations and
non-conformance of design principles on source code level.
The authors developed a tool called MUSE in which a
portfolio matrix is used to prioritize the identified violations
and to communicate design debt. In the proposed approach,
a benchmarking-oriented measurement is applied to derive a
quality index and categorize each design best practice into
Q0- to Q5-area based on the number of identified design best
practice violations.
      </p>
      <p>
        Based on the analysis of existing literature, it is found that
the limitation of the aforementioned approaches is that the
relative importance of business impacts or operations are not
taken into account. Therefore, the concept of linking EA debt
to enterprise architecture and applying portfolio thinking is
novel. While Stochel et al. [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref26">26</xref>
        ] suggested to regard each
distinct type of technical debt such as process debt as a
debt portfolio, we suggest to map each EA project as a debt
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>VI. CONCLUSION</title>
      <p>Implementing EA is essential to enhance the business-IT
alignment in a holistic manner. However, academia, software
developers, and organizations have been focusing on technical
debt, which deals with the quality issues on code, application,
and system level. Considering the importance of EA in
creating value to organizations, this work has explored a method
to identify the optimal set of EA debt items, which should be
repaid next. Therefore, we have elaborated on the necessary
attributes of EA debts (RQ1:1) and on the necessary process
steps (RQ1:2). To tackle (RQ1:1), we have defined a mapping
from the EA debt domain to the used terminology in portfolio
optimization (see table I). This mapping is used as input for the
process (see figure 1) to prioritize the EA debts that answers
(RQ1:2).</p>
      <p>One of the limitations is that the portfolio-based EA debt
model is developed based upon a high-level approach. This
means any details, such as EA debt estimation tools and
methods, are outside of the research scope. Therefore,
estimation guidelines should be developed based on the professional
experienced EA practitioners to provide the reference for
estimating the debt principal and interest value of each assessed
EA debt item.</p>
      <p>In the meantime, coarse-grained estimations of EA debt
measurement units have been made and we acknowledge
that it is sufficient for prioritizing the EA debt items for
preliminary decision-making. In real-world practice, EA
practitioners are encouraged to substitute estimations based on
historical measurements of extra costs required in EA debt
repayment. More detailed planning can be made when more
historical information is available upon which to facilitate the
estimations.</p>
      <p>Future research within this domain is two-fold. First, it is
necessary to provide catalogs of EA debt items to enable
practitioners to identify them in their EA. Those catalogs need
to be validated and expanded. Further, effort should be invested
to develop methods, which enable the practitioners to assess
the measurement attributes that are needed to compute the
optimal portfolio. Second, further means to prioritize technical
debts need to be transferred to the domain of EA debts. Then,
the different means need to be compared concerning their
efficiency to determine the most efficient one.
52</p>
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