=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-2523/paper11
|storemode=property
|title=
Formalization of the Disasters Impacts on Enterprises and the Population and Recommendations for Decision-Making
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2523/paper11.pdf
|volume=Vol-2523
|authors=Evgenii Viazilov,Alexander Mikheev
|dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/rcdl/ViazilovM19
}}
==
Formalization of the Disasters Impacts on Enterprises and the Population and Recommendations for Decision-Making
==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2523/paper11.pdf
Formalization of the Disasters Impacts on
Enterprises and the Population and
Recommendations for Decision-making
Evgenii Viazilov 1, Alexander Mikheev 1
1
RIHMI-WDC, 6, Koroleva St., 249035 Obninsk, Russia
vjaz@meteo.ru
Abstract. Information model proposed to describe situations of impacts disas-
ters on industrial facilities and population, to make recommendations for deci-
sion-making. Methodical questions of knowledge formalization on the impacts
of disasters and recommendations for preventive activity presented. The struc-
ture of the database of threshold values of disasters indicators developed. The
database on impacts and recommendations has been created for more than 100
dangerous situations, for various objects and activities, in the period before dis-
asters (based on climate and prognostic information), at the time of disasters
(real time data) and after the disasters.
Key words: Disasters, Impacts, Recommendations, Formalization
1 Introduction
Disasters – strong wind, rain, extreme heat, floods, fog, waves and others – cause
enormous material damage and even result in death [8]. Many losses could have been
avoiding if business leaders and the public would not only receive timely information
about disasters, but also to know what can happen because of their exposure to the
disaster and what should be done to reduce or prevent adverse impacts. To this re-
quired automatically bring information about disasters to the decision makers of it at
the initiative of the system, not the person; visualize information about dangerous
situations in the form of a text description, interactive maps, the results of monitoring
of hydrometeorological situations with an indication of the level of danger (yellow,
orange, red), separately for each object of economy and type of activity. Impacts and
recommendations for making decisions should input with assessing potential damage
and calculating the cost of preventive measures. Such tools call decision support sys-
tems (DSS). The main approaches to the development of such hydrometeorological
support are presenting in the articles [1, 5, 9–11].
Decision makers gain experience in dealing with natural disasters in the course of
their activities. Moreover, they are confronting with certain disasters (for example,
tsunami, and earthquakes) sometimes only once during the entire period of their activ-
ity, in result accumulated experience is lost. Existing experience is not always reflect-
ing in instructions, is poorly formalized and often is presenting in a much-generalized
form. This experience is stored in the memory of a person in the form of non-
formalized information, skills, and abilities. Traditional forms of knowledge represen-
Copyright © 2019 for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative
Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
95
tation in the form of instructions, Internet pages have the following limitations: a long
search time, knowledge is presenting in different sources, sometimes even a contra-
diction arises in them.
Despite the fact that the first studies on the creation the DSS in the field of pre-
venting the disasters impacts began in 1990 [9], this field of research is still in the
“embryonic” stage. In other branches of DSS, they are already working in permanent
mode, for example, in the field of energy [12]. The most advanced solution support
system currently available is Watson, developed by IBM. This system is using as a
medical assistant. Using the approaches implemented in the system for our tasks may
be possible, but this solution is too expensive, system operation algorithms are not
clear.
If at the beginning 90-ies the main problem when creating DSS was the lack of
methods and tools of creating them, then in the late 90s there was a shortage of mate-
rials with impacts and recommendations for decision-making. Currently, the Internet
and other publication contains a lot of different manuals, instructions and regulations
that need to be formalized and presented in the form of knowledge base.
For the development of hydrometeorological services at the modern level of IT
technologies development, it is necessary to create a knowledge base in the form of
formalized information on potential impacts and recommendations for decision-
making, a database of threshold values for disasters indicators, software tools for
identifying disasters, and searching of knowledge.
2 Information Model of Knowledge Description
The basic idea of creating a DSS is as follows. Knowing of the environment condi-
tions is possible to determine in advance the list of impacts of natural disasters for the
population and enterprises. Knowing these impacts, you can make a list of recom-
mendations on the behavior of the population in these situations, as well as a list of
recommendations to support decision-making. For the same hydrometeorological
conditions at different enterprises and depending on the time of year, there may be
different solutions.
Before applying the knowledge accumulated in traditional sources, a person must
find and interpret them to solve a specific problem. This complicates and slows down
the process of preparing a decision, at the same time in practice the use of knowledge
and decision-making should be carrying out immediately after receiving the initial
information in real time. In addition, in traditional forms of storing knowledge, the
process of changing and supplementing new knowledge seriously hampered.
To create a DSS, formalized knowledge of scientists and specialists, registered in
the literature, should be introducing in the knowledge base. An important point in the
formalization of knowledge is the understanding that, depending on the time of use
knowledge (before, at the time and after disaster) you must to use a particular type of
information (observation, analysis, short-term or long-term forecasts, and climatic
data).
To create a knowledge base for impacts and recommendations, it is necessary to
define a situation description unit, select attributes, and define attribute properties. If
the description unit in the selected situation determines solutions for one value of the
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observation, forecast or climatic indicator, is basing on three dangers levels, for 50
disasters, hundreds of typical objects, four type of activity, then the total number of
cases may exceed ten thousand.
The basis of knowledge are list of rules (if, then, else). In a semi-formalized form,
these rules look like this:
DISASTER: ; BACKGROUND: ; GEOGRAPHIC AREA: ;
PERIOD (DATE): >; OBJECTS OF IMPACTS: ; IMPACTS:
; RECOMMENDATIONS < list >.
Knowledge written in the form of rules has a disadvantage – with a large number
of them, it becomes difficult to check their consistency. Therefore, the DSS is propos-
ing to use the no classical knowledge bases in the form of rules, and the database of
thresholds values of disasters indicators depending on the object type, type of activity
on object, the location of the object, dangers level, season, climatic region. Danger
levels create for the population, technical systems, building structures, ships, ports,
and so on. The analysis of various situations connected with disasters and the formali-
zation of information about these situations allows suggesting the following form for
describing them:
1) Name of disaster;
2) The determination of the disaster from the meteorological dictionary;
3) The causes of the disaster (text description);
4) Photos with examples of the manifestation of disaster;
5) Impact objects (port, housing and communal economy, population);
5.1) Name of the object, which may be impact by disasters;
5.2) Information type (climate, forecast, in the moment disaster and after the
disaster);
5.3) Impact indicators and their meanings;
5.4) Level of danger;
6) Impacts (name, type of activity affected by disaster, priority, author, possible
potential damage);
7) Typical impacts (using for several disasters);
8) Recommendations (name, level of management to which the recommendation,
priority, author is intended, cost of preventive measures of the activities, reference);
9) Typical recommendations (used for several disasters);
10) Reference to situations related to others disasters;
11) Sources of information (bibliography).
The identification of disasters is a procedure for determining the list of possible
impact on object for various levels of danger. Here one can use such indicators of
disasters, as threshold values, probability of disasters, risk, etc.
Disasters reasons are prerequisites for their occurrence. There, an important role is
playing by environmental conditions (mountains, deserts) in which prerequisites lead
to disasters (for example, heavy rains in the mountains lead to mudflows).
Each case of a dangerous situation is characterizing by the geographical area of
manifestation, the duration of the risk, time of year, the climatic zone. If for a particu-
lar impact are several values of geographical and time conditions, then are several
situations of dangerous impacts. The geographic area, as an element of the situation,
is very important, since it often predetermines the fact of occurrence of a certain type
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of disasters (for example, flooding at the mouth of a river) and possible consequences
of a phenomenon (for example, silt deposition on the banks of rivers from flooding).
This property extends from the region “North hemisphere”, “subtropics”, “mountain
area” to the level of names of settlements, transport objects (airport, seaport). There
are the next types of geographic objects:
• global – “Southern Hemisphere”, “World Ocean”, “Arctic”;
• geophysical – “tropic region”, “tundra”, “lowland”;
• continent – “Europe”, “Australia”;
• ocean – “Pacific”, “Atlantic”;
• name of transport object.
The geographical region may have a specific value of is, at any level of the classi-
fication system (“pool Barents sea”, “Caspian Sea Coast”). Water areas can be open
sea, bays, estuaries, port water area. To display different types of geographic areas, it
is necessary, in addition to the value of the geographic region itself, to store the at-
tribute “Type of geographic object” (countries, sea regions, mountains, lowlands).
It may note the following features associated with the identification of disasters
and their manifestation. The situation may include several disasters (for example,
wind, heavy precipitation), some of them are complex (for example, “storm” is
“strong wind” + “waves”).
The description of the situations with disasters should contain information on the
disasters indicators (air and water temperature, wind speed, height waves, speed for
“strong wind”). Moreover, the consequences of the disasters impacts are determined
not only by the threshold values of the indicators, but also by the conditions in which
the “disasters” occurs. That is, depending on the conditions of exposure to disasters,
disaster may be dangerous to one degree or another. For example, the same water
level rise for settlements nearly river may be disasters, and for building on the eleva-
tion – no danger. That is, according to the sensitivity of objects to disasters, it is nec-
essary to specify threshold values for individual objects and regions.
The situation with the disasters (for example, “flooding in the seaport”) may be
associated with various variants of disasters impacts:
• one type of impact on several facilities or activities, for example, wind speed af-
fects port cranes and loading or unloading, vessels traffic in the port;
• one type of impact – one object of impact – several consequences of disasters
exposure, for example, high sea level affects the seaport (complication of mooring of
vessels to the pier, moistening of cargo stored on the pier, impossibility of stay at the
roadstead);
• several types of impact – one or several objects of impact and a wide variety of
combinations leading to various consequences of in this situation, for example, a
storm leads to flood in the river (heavy rain); tearing off roofs, trees falling down
(strong wind); fires, of death to people (lightning).
The procedure for assessing impacts and issuing recommendations includes the
following work:
• description of the existing situation (nature, causes of the disaster, objects of
impact, activities);
• defining a list of possible objects that may be affected by natural disasters;
• assessment of natural disasters that affect the object;
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• description of the sources of data used for impact assessment;
• list of all expected impacts (indicator, dangerous level);
• impact criteria (at what values of the indicator comes a negative impact);
• determining the significance of the negative impact for each disaster and the ob-
ject for which the assessment is being conducted;
• loss assessment;
• identification of preventive actions;
• assessment of the cost of preventive actions;
• choice of alternative solutions;
• development of methods and tools for informing and consulting of the public
about possible impacts.
3 Methodical Problems
3.1 Selection of Indicators
To create a knowledge base, it is necessary to use observable, predicted and climatic
values of indicators of disasters – the probability of their occurrence; threshold levels
of disasters indicators; impact lists and recommendations. The regulatory document of
Roshydromet [13] determines the composition of disasters, their indicators and gen-
eral threshold values. For some regions of Russia local threshold values of disaster
indicators have already been introduced. This refers to the water level, wind speed, air
temperature.
Spatial-temporal properties of disasters are important for assessing their level of
danger. They determine the disaster scale (local, regional or global), the place of man-
ifestation of disaster (the name of the settlement, the river), the response time to disas-
ter, the period of possible impact (instant or gradual increase of the impact).
Important properties of disasters are their intensity, power, amplitude, magnitude,
etc. Intensity meteorological processes (wind speed and height of the wave) translates
them into the category disaster. For example, wind speed becomes dangerous if it is
more than 15 m/s in 1/3 of a federal subject with phenomenon duration of 6 hours.
Threshold values of wind speed for oceans, Arctic and Far East seas are not less than
30 m/s, and for the mountain regions – not less than 35 m/s [13]. Threshold values are
establishing by regulation and are depend on their impacts on economic activities in
specific geographic areas, taking into account their repeatability.
For some indicators dangerous both low and high values, e.g., pressure, humidity,
temperature of air, etc. (Table 1). It should be noted that the temperature of the air,
water and soil has yet another threshold value “transition through zero degrees”,
which is considered as a separate disasters – frost (transition from a plus to a minus)
and thaw (transition from minus to plus). Here it is important to use the forecasts and
warnings of disasters [6], as well as climate risk assessments [7].
When specifying values of indicators of disasters, not only threshold values can be
using, but also other types of indicators, for example:
• average (background) value – climatic value (rate) for the considered temporal
and spatial resolution, for example, the medium amounts of precipitation;
99
• repeatability of climatic values – the number of cases (years) the manifestation
of measured values of parameters in the specified intervals (wind speed is zero, 1–4,
5–9, 10–14, 15–25, >25 m/s; water level <150, 151–200, >200 cm) for a certain peri-
od, as a percentage;
• anomaly – the deviation of the parameter value from the climatic norm, which
is triggering if the difference between the current and climatic indicator values is
greater than the set value that is significant for air temperature, pressure, humidity.
Table 1. Thresholds of indicators
Situations
Indicators Catast- Dangerous Moderately Normal Moderately Dangerous Catast-
rophic indignant indignant rophic
Air temperature, ℃ <–35 –35 ÷ –25 –24 ÷ –20 –19 ÷ 20 21 ÷ 24 25 ÷ 35 >35
Air pressure, mb <985 985–994 995–1004 1005–1015 1016–1020 1021–1030 >1030
Humidity, % <15 15–30 31–40 41–80 81–90 91–95 >95
3.2 Determining of Thresholds Values
The most laborious and decisive step in the development of knowledge is the for-
mation of threshold values for disaster indicators. Attributes of indicators description
should include the activities type; time of year (the same indicator of disasters has
different risks depending on the season of the year); geographical area (in different
parts of the country, enterprises and people are differently prepared for the same dis-
asters, for example, in areas of constant exposure to strong winds and frosts, the popu-
lation has already adapted itself to surviving in such conditions). Therefore, the
threshold values for every of activities type, season of the year, geographical area
should be clarified.
For disasters, impacting on enterprises, refined threshold values of indicators are
needed, within which it is possible to compensate for their negative impact with the
help of preventive measures. The values of threshold values for specific objects and
activities is basing on the existing experience of the manager. On this basis, the level
of danger is the subject of an assessment of the safety of the vital activity of the popu-
lation and industrial enterprises from disasters. For example, of the thresholds values
are level of water, influencing the activities of the seaport or shops on the embank-
ments in St. Petersburg; air temperature and precipitation during loading and unload-
ing of perishable goods.
For shipping in the shallow strait requires a constant knowledge of specific values
of the water level every hour and even more often. At a certain value of the water
level can pass vessels with some draft. At the same time, for the construction of port
facilities, on the contrary, it is necessary to know the extreme values of water level.
Examples of indicators for disasters are presented in Table 2.
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Table 2. Examples of disasters, which influences on different enterprises and populations
Disasters Name Indicators of disasters Objects (managing level)
type
Marine Waves Current or forecast information: wave Vessel (port authority,
disasters height>5 m. captain, passengers);
Climate: wave height recurrence with tourism (business leaders,
different wind directions. local government)
Early Current or prognostic information: Ship (port administration,
ice date of occurrence of ice cover well be- ship captain)
cover fore the average long-term date.
Climate: max and min dates of ice cover.
3.3 Development of Impacts List
After determining of dangerous situations, it is necessary to evaluate possible impacts.
The impacts assessment procedure includes the next steps: identification and analysis
of disasters; determination of the impacts of disasters on enterprises and the popula-
tion; identification of individual objects subjected to disasters with complex social or
technical conditions; the identification of economic vulnerability to disasters; identifi-
cation of secondary impacts from accidents and disasters at enterprises; identification
of areas with a high probability manifestations impacts.
Determining the degree of impact of natural disasters on such objects as schools,
hospitals, transportation plays a key role in determining the list of resources and pre-
ventive actions; identify the danger level and objects of impacts; vulnerability as-
sessments of these objects; choice of decision criteria (loss minimization, safety of
people). When assessing impacts, it is necessary to use accumulated experience in
environmental impact assessment and disaster risk management [2–4, 16].
Identification of individual objects prone to natural disasters with complex social
or technical conditions, also includes, for example, determining the percentage of
people with low living wages, the number of elderly, children, uninsured dwellings,
people without transport; potentially dangerous objects, that can lead to various acci-
dents in the form of “a domino” effect. It is also necessary to describe the sources of
data used for impact assessment; determine the significance of the negative impacts
for each disaster and enterprise.
Detailed impact assessments can confuse managers and divert attention and re-
sources from major impacts. Consequently, impacts must have priorities.
As objects of impact are used a enterprises, buildings, vessels, ports and whole in-
dustries such as maritime transport, fishing, agriculture, as well as activities for trans-
portation of people, loading and unloading materials, transmission of energy. In the
situations under consideration, objects are exposing to unintentional (spontaneous)
impacts of disasters. Impacts can manifest themselves in different economy sectors
and at different levels of government. Specific objects can be dividing by industry:
mining and processing of gas and oil; transport; construction, etc. In each industry the
division is already carried out on the basis of traditional classification, for example, in
the “marine transport” emit “port facilities”, “passenger transport”.
The object of impact can be not only a material object or the branch of material
activity in general, but also a functional process. Therefore, together with the system
101
of material objects, it is necessary to take into account the system of functional im-
pacts on production processes: generation of electric current, emission of pollutants;
breeding of fish and mariculture; cleaning the air and water; ore dressing; unloading /
loading materials, products; energy transfer; transportation of people, substances,
materials; storage of goods.
A sufficient condition for detecting disasters is the excess of the danger level
(power, speed, force or any other value of the threshold of the object’s sensitivity)
above the level of the object’s resistance to impacts (seismic resistance of buildings,
wind resistance, noise immunity of communication lines). Each specific object can be
characterizing by the level of resistance in relation to the impacts of disasters. Just
like the thresholds values, characteristics of the stability of objects in relation to ex-
ternal influences (moisture resistance, frost resistance, drought resistance, fire disas-
ters, wind resistance, wave resistance, comfort or severity of climate) may be a prop-
erties of object. You can talk about the universal property of objects “resistance to
external influences”. The value of this property plays the same role as the threshold
value of the disasters indicators (wind speed, number of precipitation, water level).
Impacts are considered in the context of changes in the state of objects (the condi-
tion of roads deteriorates, the availability of settlements decreases); of destruction of
the objects themselves (bridges are destroyed, vessels are killed); of damage compo-
nent element of objects (demolished roof, broken water pipes); occurrence a negative
processes (soaking crops, which leads to the death of the crop); changing an object
properties (reduced strength materials deteriorated operational characteristics of
equipment), and the properties of the processes (reduces fishing, increases cruises
duration).The prerequisites of impacts are called impacts conditions. They should be
sought not only in the environment, but also in the places of impacts manifestation
(for example, landslides often arise as a result of construction work on the hillsides).
The reasons for the landslide here are the condition of the soil after heavy rainfall, and
the prerequisite is the construction work. Prerequisites for the occurrence of impacts
can be current and remote in time. Knowledge of the prerequisites of the occurrence
of impacts may allow preventive actions to be taking in order to prevent impacts of
disasters or for reduce of their impacts. Therefore, for example, knowing remote pre-
requisites of impacts that lead to aging or corrosion of materials of structures and
reduction of their physic-mechanical characteristics allows improving these structures
in period the design or increasing the number of preventive actions during operation.
Design defects, materials of structures exposed to natural processes (rain, snow) that
reduce the reliability of structures, may also be prerequisites of impacts.
When assessing impacts it is important to know, what information (climatic, prog-
nostic or observed) are used an impact assessment. When forecasting the impact of
disasters on the population and enterprises, the tendency of changes in the values of
disasters indicators is determined. Need continuously to identify trends, since trend
values indicate the possibility of increasing or decreasing disaster impacts.
Delayed consequences may be associated with several situations. For example, if
one of the situations of the consequences of natural disasters “Loss of ship manage-
ment” is a delayed consequence: “Shipwreck” and “Oil spill”.
According to the time of exposure can be:
• long-term (with a long delay) negative impacts, which is taken into account
when designing and decommissioning business facilities;
102
• possible impacts in the near future (related to disasters prediction), which are
taken into account in the construction and operation of enterprises;
• direct impacts (with the passage of the disaster), which are taken into account in
the construction and operation of facilities;
• after the passage of a natural disaster – impacts taken into account in search and
rescue and rescue operations.
Depending from the time lag of impacts manifestation and the category of infor-
mation used (climate, prognostic, observed), the record of impacts should reflect fu-
ture, present and past impacts. Future possible distant impacts are recording in an
indefinite form of the verb (violates, makes difficult, limits, excludes, creates, vio-
lates). The nearest predicted impacts are recorded with a touch of probability (may be
destroyed) or in the future tense. Impacts occurring at the moment of disasters passing
are recorded in the present tense. After past disasters the impacts are writing in the
past tense (washed away, destroyed).
3.4 Preparation of Recommendations
For some disasters, existing forecasting methods provide insufficiently accurate re-
sults, and the user faces a dilemma: to apply or not to apply protective actions past
receiving forecasting of disaster is. He has three possible strategies: never take protec-
tive actions; always take protective actions; apply protective actions selectively, fo-
cusing on intuition or additional information.
Recommendations that do not lead to substantial economic damage are giving
lower priority for their implementation. It is determined what level of costs exceeds
the benefits of a corresponding reduction in losses for the enterprise.
When creating a knowledge base, it should use all kinds of unstructured
knowledge – textbooks, guidelines, practical guides, and even news. This information
is processed and converted into formalized information. During the period of normal
conditions, instructions are being developing that allow managers to prepare for disas-
ters. The manager’s actions and responsibilities for inaction should be defining in
normative documents. After the acquisition legislative powers recommendations must
be strictly adhered to.
In preparing recommendations, it is necessary to take into account, both existing
and develop technical regulations, the provisions on interaction [14, 15]. They devel-
oped as rule based on international and national standards adopted to protect the life
and health of citizens, the property of individuals and legal entities, state and munici-
pal property, environmental protection, animals. They must contain exhaustive lists of
regulatory objects for which recommendations are establishing taking into account all
categories of the population and industrial facilities, and contain rules of conduct to
ensure the safety of the public and industrial enterprises in the case of disasters. With
the help of the regulations we can speed up the process of filling the knowledge base.
Recommendations are creating separately for different levels of enterprise manage-
ment. An example of impacts and recommendations for the “Amateur fishermen on
ice” situation is presented below.
103
Indicators: ice thickness <30 cm, wind speed >15 m/s, ice drift >0.5 m/s.
Sources: 1) Guidelines for the development of a Safety plan for water objects of the Rus-
sian Federation in the winter period. – Approved the EMERCOM of Russia. 01.07.2013
N 2-4-87-15-14.
2) Regulations on the interaction of rescue services of ministries, departments and organiza-
tions at sea and water basins of Russia. – M.: The EMERCOM of Russia. – 1995. Approved
21.06.1995.
Type of information: forecast.
Impacts for amateur fishermen:
Possible separation of ice from the shore.
Recommendations for amateur fishermen:
Do not depart from the coast further 300 m.
Leave the car on the beach.
Type of information: at the time of disaster.
Impacts for people are on the ice:
A crack of ice is heard.
There are rustling sounds - snow and ice fall into the cracks.
Crack width increases.
Carries an ice floe with fishermen in the sea.
Recommendations for amateur fishermen:
Inform the local authorities of the Ministry of Emergencies about what happened (indicate the
coordinates of the place, the number of people on the ice).
To use for transition of cracks auxiliary materials – long boards, poles, logs, etc.
Count the available products. Divide the products for 2–3 days.
Prohibit the try to look for opportunities to reach the shore in single.
Wait for the rescue service.
4 Results
The collected materials on the impacts of disasters formalized in the form of 3,000
situations for 108 disasters, 30 typical objects, 100 types of activity, 3 dangerous lev-
els, four situations (future climate change, forecast disaster, real-time data, after the
disaster) with a total volume of >10 thousand impacts and recommendations are pre-
sented in the PostgreSQL database management system. An application, created for
access the database (http://test.shpirat.net/), get out formalized information about
dangerous situations, as well as organize the replenishment and editing of information
about impacts and recommendations.
As a result of the study, a demo version of the DSS created to transfer information
about disasters to the public on mobile Internet devices with the ability to provide
information on the impacts of disasters and recommendations to reduce these impacts.
For receiving recommendations, may use the following variants of implementa-
tion. The user independently obtained from any official sources (radio, TV,
EMERCOM of Russia, Roshydromet) or even from an unofficial foreign source in-
formation about a possible disaster, and selects the appropriate disaster in application
on base their classification and ordering in alphabetical order. In the future, the search
will organizes for situations related to the type of object and activities for which rec-
ommendations are necessary; the level of dangerous, the type of data used (observed,
predictive, climate), the level of making decision.
104
A more promising implementation is associated with the automatic detection of
dangerous situations based on threshold values of disasters indicators using integrated
data from the Unified State System of Information on the Situation in the World
Ocean [17], http://portal.esimo.ru. The system integrates the observed operational
data received via the global telecommunication system of the World Meteorological
Organization; forecast data in the regular grid, coming from the Hydrometeorological
Center of Russia and other forecasting organizations; climate data obtained on the
basis of generalization of historical data RIHMI-WDC. At the same time, dangerous
situations for each object are identifying separately based on threshold values of the
indicators of disasters and are automatically delivering directly to the MeteoAgent
program is running on Internet device of the decision makers. After receiving a mes-
sage about disasters, the MeteoAgent program is initializing on a mobile Internet
device and, if necessary, the decision-makers will receive information about the pos-
sible impacts of the disaster detected and recommendations for decisions making. At
this stage, it is possible to connect economic models that allow one to assess the pos-
sible damage and calculate the cost of preventive measures before the onset of the
disaster.
In more detail with the existing demonstration version of the implementation and
the prospects for the development of DSS can be found in the articles [1, 5, 18].
5 Conclusions
As a result of the work done for the first time in field hydrometeorology: an infor-
mation model has been developed for describing information about the impacts of
disasters and recommendations for taking preventive measures; methods of formaliz-
ing information about the impacts and recommendations for decision-making are
tested; an experimental database of threshold values of disaster indicators, character-
izing type objects, type of activities depending on the year season, geographic area,
climatic zone has been prepared; materials on the manifestation of various disasters
are collected; demo variant DSS for disasters created.
Acknowledgements
The work financially supported by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of
the Russian Federation, a unique project identifier RFMEFI61618X0103.
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