The problem of sustainable development of industrial areas on the basis of risk-based approach is considered. The purpose of the work is the analysis of methodological recommendations for the assessment of individual risk of emergencies. The relevance is determined by the need to implement the national safety strategy at the regional level on the basis development methods of technogenic safety analysis. In the conditions of the existing risk and negative consequences the organization and modernization of the territorial risk management system is necessary. The result is a ranking of Krasnoyarsk territories the level of technological risk (high, borderline, safe) with the use of a differentiated coefficient.
Introduction
The analysis assessment individual risk emergencies method
н – the number of population living there. where п – mean of fatality (within year) in specific type of emergency on considered territory;
The individual risk of emergencies calculation has been made on example of Krasnoyarsk territory using
statistical information official data Ministry of Emergency Russia and the methodological recommendations [
There are the following administrative units in Krasnoyarsk territory: 13 cities, 3 closed administrative-territorial
entities (CATE), 44 municipalities and 1 urban-type locality (utl) [
= п н (1) (2) where N – number of population on looking territory higher 100000.
Rigion The source values and recalculated values of risk have presented in table 2 as well as it has done ranging across dangerous levels. 1·10-4 1,5·10-4 1·10-4 4·10-5 1·10-4 1·10-4 1·10-5 1,5·10-5 1·10-5 1,2·10-5 2·10-5 I1n·d1i0v-i5dual risk 4A,2c·c1e0p-6table risk 1·10-5
safety Shushenskij r0igion 1,4·10-5 32164 0,3 safety Etavocecn1eTk,p3hitj·eas1bkv0liea-j4l.ruoiegTnsiehorsena.nMiissknunMKgeuraiiijlrsaengokvoynnosifnciijirrsanogknuuhToiipnyad1aiijirsacnogknguhlir,iv1stiik·ijiirsaongknMed1su0casaknK-ih4ltayrijiijirssenogknEvisehkiijilrsznogkuoKabbseyiijiiirssngoknnuMethnteeiijirrszaanogkvoNcphhrneiijiirszngokubom1iogs5egh1iijirrsanogkyUnee4tnse7tiiscknhAdcoeoiijijrrsanogkyTmfmnieilrskoNnfrdig0gieiijirrsezenogkvoBv,un1ircderrssaakoynKiuea2sl hirnaivsekw1hb, w1iec·ehh1ni0cvg-h5aolteutqeenusablosyf r1ien,c3da·il1vc0iud-l4ua.atiTlnhgriisswkiitnhadsrineaicfafehrttiooygmrhei0rs conditioned large quamntitiesoBof potentially hazaruhdous objects, critical and strategically infrastructure.
E S
Conclusion. To control anthropogenic safety is connected with predicting probable risks and develop in models and methods of technogenic risk analyses and assessment. There are the following results of this work: - analysis of methodological recommendation for the assessment of individual risk of emergencies is done; - calculation and the analysis of individual risk of emergencies for the Krasnoyarsk territory are made; - individual risk recalculation is made (with the use of differentiated coefficient).
The analysis of territory technogenic hazard shows the large cities with developed infrastructure and dangerous object are exposed to the risk the most.
The reported study was funded by Russian Foundation for Basic Research, Government of Krasnoyarsk Territory, Krasnoyarsk Regional Fund of Science, to the research project No 18-47-240006: «Methods and information technologies for risk assessment of the development of socio-natural-technogenic systems in an industrial region».