The paper presents criteria for hazard and threat identification based on the systematization of the parameters of the comprehensive area safety monitoring. The numerical values of the intervals of functional safety of regional social-naturaltechnogenic systems have been obtained based the requirements of regulatory and guidance documents, and expert assessments. A method of using criteria has been proposed for identifying hazardous situations which consists in the comprehensive analytical processing of monitoring data.
To fulfill the tasks of ensuring the safe functioning of regional S-N-T systems requires the establishment of allowable
range of parameters controlled by various systems for monitoring natural and anthropogenic processes [1]. A large list of
possible risks characteristic of the territory of Siberia, and their mutual influence which enhances negative effects of the
risk manifestation, justify the need for collecting, consolidating and comprehensive processing of data from the entire
range of active observations [
Unlike integral risk assessments, which are annually performed, the area safety management authorities are
permanently solving the problems of hazard identification [
The functionality of most monitoring systems is reduced to on-line visualization of controlled parameters and
analytical processing of observation archives [
In order to build a universal approach for identifying hazards and threats, criteria have been developed for the threshold values of parameters for the available types of monitoring the S-N-T systems. A method of using the criteria is proposed for early detection of precursors of dangerous situations and for timely notification of emergency rescue units, population, and authorities.
For the systematization of the monitoring parameters PR we introduce the notions of «comprehensive monitoring» and
«current situation» as well as notations of their components [
The main types of ST are meteorological, hydrological, seismic, radiation, forest fire, sanitary and epidemiological conditions. The consolidation of the parameters of different types of monitoring allows one to take into account the mutual effect of ST. For example, adverse weather conditions increase the scale of hazards for almost all types of dangerous situations while the phytopathological environmental factors determine the risk of natural fires.
The primary source of the control parametric data O1 is instrumental monitoring. Nowadays devices allow measuring the values of physical parameters, such as temperature, pressure, velocity, substance concentration, radiation power, size change, etc., and transmit data for processing at arbitrarily small intervals. Instrument monitoring also includes alarms transmitting signals about a dangerous event based on internal processing of measurement results. The information resources of monitoring include the results of instrumental measurements with various levels of processing (error correction, aggregation, etc.). However, for direct monitoring of the equipment functioning at the object level, devices are the only method of immediate identification of hazards and threats.
The most important source of information on the conditions of large areas is the data of remote sensing of the Earth
[
The solution for the hazard identification problem is based on real-time analytical processing of data streams of comprehensive real-time monitoring of the environment and objects of the technosphere. The identification of hazards and threats consists in comparing the observed or calculated parameters with the criteria unique for the type of situations H.
The main document used as the basis for the development of the criteria for hazards and threats identification is the Order of the Ministry of Emergencies of Russia No. 329 dated July 8, 2004 “Concerning the Implementation of the List of Criteria for Information on Emergency Situations”. In addition, use was also made of departmental methods and regulatory acts of Roshydromet, Ministry of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation, Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation, Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation and others.
General criteria are used for all points of observation of seismic, and radiation conditions while unique ones are used for the hydrological situation (data of critical water levels), functioning of techno-sphere objects, etc. Group criteria of the meteorological situation are applied for various climate zones - areas located in temperate latitudes, Arctic zone, and highlands.
Hazard criteria are reviewed at different time intervals: limits for the discharges of hydropower plants are set monthly, depending on the hydro and meteorological conditions; critical water levels - once every five years. Longer periods of action are characteristic for the criteria of radiation hazard which depend on lengthy medical research as well as for the criteria for identifying technogenic acci-dents. Since some types of situations H are of seasonal character, their control is performed in certain months of the annual cycle. For natural emergencies which depend on air temperature, there are daily intervals of hazard control. For example, rising water levels and fires in the forest are most likely to occur during the day between 1 to 5 pm. It is appropriate that the seasonal and daily intervals for other types of situations are based on the analytical processing of catalogs of emergency situations.
The values of the threat criteria in the absence of specific data in literature or results of field observations were determined by expertise as a fraction of the dangerous value. Most hazard criteria rep-resent the maximum or minimum possible value of the monitored parameter, and the threat criteria represent a percentage of the critical value. In addition, the criteria can represent the sum of the values for a certain period, difference of consecutive measurements, as well as the number of objects having certain properties, or changed properties during the period. For technogenic objects, hazard and threat criteria may be in the middle of the operation intervals (for example, the rotation velocity of the hydroengines of a power station).
Decision making on emergency response to hazards and threats has a multi-level character. The real-time monitoring of the state of the environment is carried out at the regional level. The monitoring of technosphere objects is performed by duty dispatch services at the object level, the information is presented to higher-level management bodies in a summarized form. This is due not only to the large amount of control information concerning units and modules of industrial facilities and infrastructure of the areas, but also to the need for special knowledge to interpret signals as signs of a nonroutine or emergency situation.
Thus, in most cases, hazard criteria are necessary but not sufficient conditions for a hazardous event to occur. After double-checking the signal using other sources of information and depending on the type of situation H, a decision is made on the response of operative services or their transfer into high-alert regime. The full cycle of management information support using identification criteria consists in the successive solution of the following tasks: identification of hazards or threats in terms of the current or forecasted state of any situation ST at the observation point PO, with notification (informing) of response services and population for a particular area;
identification of risk indicators exceeding the allowable values with the fulfillment of the tasks of planning
preventive measures for the territory with an increased level of emergency risk [
Table 1 shows the hazard criteria for the parametric monitoring of different types of hazards.
Md > 0,6 Md > 1,2
MED (Md, mSv)
(LS, cm)
ply chamber (TW, C)
LS > 20 PW < 6 TW < 90 DS > 20 CFD = 3 LS > 30 LS > 30 PW < 4 TW < 70 crossing 0 t ≤ -40 SW ≥ 25 DS > 30 CFD ≥ 4 LS > 50
30 ≤ t < 35 or -40 < t ≤
-35 t ≥ 35 15 ≤ SW < 25 Pre ≥ 30 per 1 Pre ≥ 50 per 12 Pre ≥ 120 per For solid and liquid precipitah. h. 42 h. tion DD > 7
DD > 14
Kh1 0,8
dRL > 100
Сp ≥ maxD Сp ≥ maxD24 С ≥ maxD Nс or С ≥ maxD24 Nс
for each point of observation
PO maxD – maximum one-time concentration; maxD24 – maximum day exposure concentration
control parameter
The software implementation of automatic indication of emergency and unfavorable parameters of the situation is
based on the “semaphore principle” [
«green» - the conditions correspond to the norm, the values of the parameters under control are within the allowable limits;
«threat» – the identification of a threat when the parameters approach the critical values, or dramatic changes are detected, or else a prolonged deviation is observed from the average standard values;
«red» – the identification of a hazard, increased risk of a situation connected with damages or interruption of the activities in the area. In this case, the parameters are equal or exceed the critical values.
The grey color of the indicator shows the absence of the current data for the estimation and the necessity to verify the source of information and channel of data transmission.
The application of the three-color gradation has been shown to be optimum for prompt decision making by the authorities of the Emergency Ministry of Russia using the earlier developed response scenarios. The scenarios describe the consequences and actions in a dangerous situation, depending on its type, and scale; and they are adjusted to a particular area and arising conditions.
The algorithm of using the criteria for the hazard and threat identification is presented in Figure 1. The process includes three cycles: taking into account the types of situations ST, observation points PO and measured parameters PR. The content of the monitoring information depends on the type of the information source. The data package of the instrumental monitoring can be represented by the vector of the parameters PR. The data from the observation systems and web-portals integrate the information from all the observation points PO (matrix PO PR).
Most situation types ST depend on the weather conditions and forecast, thus, in analyzing the situations meteorological parameters are to be taken into account. The range of the allowable values for the situations with the unfavorable values of the meteorological parameters decreases. Some of the parameters PR require preliminary calculation, for example, the precipitation sum Pre for the period or the fire hazard class in the forests CFD. In the process of comparison of the current PR with the criteria of hazards and threats Kr the array Signal is filled. In the cases of varying values of the elements of the array Signal[st, po, pr] the tasks of prompt response t21 and t22 are solved according to the earlier developed scenarios of actions.
Automatic indication of hazards and threats for the situation as a whole has been developed with the help of the
operation of aggregation. The situation is assigned a level of hazard corresponding to the worst of the levels from multiple
analytical indicators. Notification of hazards and threats occurs at the level of the whole area and the function of the
refinement of the analytical model OLAP allows one to check the observation point and parameter whose values exceed the
allowable level. The given function is implemented in the system ESPLA-M included into the automated working place
of an operator at the Regional Monitoring Center of the Krasnoyarsk Region [
Criteria for the hazard and threat identification have been developed based on systematizing the parameters of comprehensive monitoring of the area safety. The numeric values of the intervals, which correspond to the safe functioning of the regional social- natural-technogenic systems have been developed taking into account the regulations and guidance documents and expert estimates. A method of using the criteria for the identification of hazardous situations has been developed consisting in comprehensive analytical processing of the monitoring data.