=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-2565/paper10
|storemode=property
|title=Models for Changes Management in Infrastructure Projects
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2565/paper10.pdf
|volume=Vol-2565
|authors=Dmytro Kobylkin,Oleh Zachko,Vasyl Popovych,Nazarii Burak,Roman Golovatyi,Carsten Wolff
|dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/itpm/KobylkinZPBGW20
}}
==Models for Changes Management in Infrastructure Projects==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2565/paper10.pdf
Models for Changes Management in Infrastructure
Projects
Dmytro Kobylkin 1[0000-0002-2848-3572], Oleh Zachko 1[00000-0002-3208-9826],
Vasyl Popovych1[0000-0003-2857-0147], Nazarii Burak1[0000-0002-3880-4077]
Roman Golovatyi1[0000-0002-7895-9321] , Carsten Wolff 2[0000-0003-3646-5240]
1
Lviv State University of Life Safety, Lviv, Ukraine
2Dortmund University of Applied Science and Arts, Dortmund, Germany
{dmytrokobylkin@gmail.com, zachko@ukr.net, popovich2007@ukr.net,
nazar.burak@ukr.net, roman@golovatiy.com}
Abstract. In paper is carried out the studies of the process of changes
management in infrastructure projects. On the basis of systematic analysis, the
terminological base of management the projects, programs and portfolios of
projects has been expanded by formalizing the concepts of “infrastructure
project” and “changes management in infrastructure project”. Has been
developed a modified multi-criteria classification of infrastructure projects that
allows to make a classification of infrastructure projects by identifying 5
criteria. The conceptual model-scheme of formation the parameters of changes
management in infrastructure projects is presented. It allows to use standard
mono-templates in the development of infrastructure projects taking into
account the influence of multiparametric environment of project management
(management functions) and the environment of each unique project. Has been
developed a model-scheme of infrastructure projects development under the
influence of project changes at different stages of the project lifecycle. It takes
into account the possible impact of project changes at the points of trifurcation
and allows to make a forecast of all possible variants of infrastructure projects
development.
Keywords: infrastructure project, IT, technical systems, changes management,
information system, project-oriented approach.
1 Introduction
Today in Ukraine and in the world, there is a rapid, but uneven development of
science and techniques, information technologies and advanced management
methodologies. This state of affairs poses a threat and challenges the impossibility of
providing a comprehensive and high-quality management response to economic,
social, safe, information challenges and crises, constant changes in the turbulent
environment, and calls into question the stable and safe development of countries and
territories, the functioning of infrastructure systems, in particular critical. Therefore,
the main causes of such problems can be attributed to:
Copyright © 2020 for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative Commons License
Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
2020 ITPM Workshop.
- differences in approaches to the implementation of different types and levels of
projects, programs and portfolios of projects;
- integration processes;
- the use of different, non-standardized methodologies and standards, which
creates the problem of their adaptation in the planning and implementation of
national and global infrastructure projects.
2 Analysis of Recent Research and Publications
Issues of forming scientific and practical approaches to management of projects,
programs and portfolios of project, processes of change management in complex IT
projects were investigated by leading domestic and foreign scientists, in particular H.
Tanaka, S. Bushuyev, M. Besedin, T. Hrynko, D. Kotter, I. Babayev, S. Chernov, S.
Tsiutsiura, N. Bushuyeva, A. Shakhov, Yu. Rak, O. Medvedieva, V. Rach, E.
Druzhynin, I. Chumachenko, I. Kononenko, V. Gogunsky, V. Vaisman, V.
Yaroshenko., E. Cameron and others. In their research, scientists pay close attention
to the essence of organizational changes, the construction of strategies, methods,
models and mechanisms for management of projects, programs and portfolios of
projects.
So, in particular, Professor S. Bushuyev in his scientific works investigates:
information technologies for project management competences development on the
basis of global trends [3]; the organizational maturity of projects, programs and
portfolio of projects and their success [4]; development of breakthrough competence
of project managers based on entrepreneurship energy [5]; a knowledge-based
approach in project management in framework of project success analysis [18].
Scientists M. Besedin and V. Nagaev devoted their research to the fundamentals
of situational approach and assessment in project management [2].
Researchers T. Grynko, E. Cameron are investigating about making sense of
change management (models, tools& techniques of organizational change at the
enterprise within the context of its innovative development) [7; 12].
Professor I. Babaev's scientific research highlights the issues of priorities
management in the portfolio of projects in complex and dynamically variable
environments [1].
Professor S. Chernov and scientists Chernova, L. S., Titov, S. D. devoted their
scientific works to the study of algorithms for the simplification of solution to discrete
optimization problems and its reduction [8; 9].
Professor S. Tsiutsciura with collegues O. Terentyev, T. Honcharenko & T.
Lyashchenko dedicated their research to highlight the problem of multidimensional
space structures for an adaptive model of project data [17].
Professor N. Bushuyeva with scientists D. Bushuiev, V. Bushuieva & I. Achkasov
are working on the research of IT Projects management driving by competence and
their management development [3; 6].
Professors V. Rach, O. Medvedieva, O. Rossoshanska and A. Yevdokymova have
devoted their scientific research to systematic modeling of development the
innovative project-oriented enterprises [16].
Professor Yu. Rak Scientific School has been researching safety-oriented
principles of management projects, programs and portfolios of projects; safety
management in development projects and discrete-event modeling of the critical
parameters of functioning the products of infrastructure projects at the planning stage
[19, 20].
Professor E. Druzhynin and scientists O. Grigorov, G. Anishchenko, M. Strizhak,
V. Strizhak dedicated their scientific research to the problems of analysis the
approaches to dynamic systems modeling in project management [11].
Professor I. Chumachenko with scientists N. Dotsenko, D. Chumachenko
conducts their research in the field of project-oriented resource management of
forming adaptive teams in the environment of multi-project projects [10]; and
modeling of the processes of stakeholder involvement in command management in a
multi-project environment. [15]
Professor I. Kononenko and researchers Aghaee A. & Lutsenko S. are working on
investigation of project management methodology and guide formation‟s method
[13]; and application of the project management methodology synthesis method with
fuzzy input data [14].
However, after detailed analysis of the scientific achievements of domestic and
foreign scientists in the field of management the projects, programs and portfolios of
projects, we can say that there are still unresolved issues: isolation of infrastructure
projects as a separate link in the classification of projects in accordance with
international standards and requirements; and studies of the changes impact on the
development of infrastructure projects at different stages of the project life cycle.
Therefore, finding and identifying solutions to this scientific and applied problem is
an urgent task.
Object of study. Processes of formation the parameters of infrastructure projects
management and forecasting their development at different stages of the project life
cycle under the influence of project changes.
Subject of study. Models for changes management in infrastructure projects at
different stages of the project lifecycle.
The task of work. Modeling and researching the process of changes management
in infrastructure projects at different stages of the project lifecycle. To solve this
problem, we have formed the following tasks:
1) to carry out multi-criteria classification of infrastructure projects based on the
use of fundamental principles and provisions of methodology of management the
projects, programs and portfolios of projects, in particular system analysis, modeling
tools, proactive and reactive management mechanisms in accordance with the
requirements of current standards;
2) formalize the conceptual model-scheme of formation the parameters of changes
management in infrastructure projects on the basis of project-oriented approach;
3) to develop the forecasting model of infrastructure projects development at
different stages of project life cycle under the influence of project changes;
4) to expand the terminological base of management the projects, programs and
portfolios of projects by formalizing the concepts of “infrastructure project” and
“changes management in infrastructure project”.
3 The Bulk of Research
Addressing the issues of forming the parameters of changes management in projects,
programs and project portfolios and forecasting their development at different stages
of the life cycle is a complex task, which in turn requires the use of a project-oriented
approach in addition to the common project management tools. Since complex tasks
are multicriteria, they need to be solved at a basic level and individually.
The first step is to analyze and formalize the concept of "infrastructure project"
and to make their classification. Based on the elaboration of existing definitions of the
concepts of "project" and "infrastructure", we have generated a unified concept. An
“infrastructure project” is a process of executing a set of management, engineering
actions and technical solutions that are limited in time and resources and implemented
to create a unique product of the project, ensuring the coordinated activity of the IT
sector, energy, education, transport, social sphere and safety.
The second step is to research the classification of infrastructure projects. Today,
there are different approaches to classifying projects by classification, which have a
number of identical features and a number of unique ones. However, since the subject
of the research is infrastructure projects, we have carried out a systematic analysis of
existing international classifications of projects, programs and project portfolios and
modified the multi-criteria classification of infrastructure projects (see Fig. 1).
simple
complex
Project
Project scale
regional
Complexity very
complicated global
society large-scale
education Long-term
economics local
INFRASTRUCTURE Project
transport Medium term
PROJECT class Project
energetics
duration
ІТ monoproject megaproject
safety Short term
construction multiproject metaproject
Fig. 1. Modified multi-criteria classification of infrastructure projects
Thus, according to the presented multi-criteria classification, infrastructure
projects are divided into 5 criteria, which can be formally described by the
dependence:
Ip = Pe ,Pk ,Pc,Ps,Pt ,
1 2
(1)
where, Ip – infrastructure project; Pe – is the criterion responsible for the project
implementation area (IT, safety, construction, energy, society, economy); Pk – is the
project class criterion (megaproject, multiproject, monoproject and metaproject, most
likely sphere of application are safety-oriented systems, in particular civil protection
system); Pc – project complexity criterion (simple, complex, very complicated); Ps –
project scale criterion (local, regional, global, large-scale); Pt – is the project duration
criterion (short-term tlim 0;3 , medium-term tlim 3;5 , long-term tlim 5; ).
In the process of planning and implementing infrastructure projects, the set of
described criteria is basic, and the choice of formation criteria may have different
criteria structuration and combination, which in turn will allow to make qualitative
approach to planning and management of different types of infrastructure projects.
The third step of the research is to conceptualize the formation of parameters of
changes management in infrastructure projects based on a project-oriented approach.
The solution to this problem lies in the plane of identification of the process of
infrastructure projects changes management. Having made a semantic analysis of the
terminology and methodology of changes management in projects, we can confirm
that changes management in projects is a complex of organizational and technical
project management process that involves implementing a set of measures to
investigate changes in a project, their development, influencing to the project
lifecycle, and applying project-oriented management to respond to changes in the
project at the stages of initiation, planning, practical implementation and
commissioning of the project in order to obtain the project product.
The life cycle of this type of project in structure is not different from other
projects, but its content is unique for each new project. The conceptual feature is the
ability to use standard mono-templates for infrastructure projects, however, taking
into account the influence of multiparameter environment of project changes
management. Thus, taking into account the above and based on a project-oriented
approach, we have formed a conceptual model-scheme of parameters formation for
changes management in infrastructure projects (see Figure 2).
A model-scheme is formed as complex interconnected structure which consists of
three blocks of management process. It can be formalized as a dependence of all
elements of project environment that works under the influence of project changes
and turbulent factors:
Ei; Ee Pl Pm Mv Mt Mk Ms Mc Mp Mr Mq
Fs k k k k k k k k
Ip Fp k k k k kn k k k Mf , (2)
Fr k k k k kn + 1 k k k
Pp Fi k k k k ( kn + 1 ) → k k k
where, Ip – infrastructure project; Fs – initiation phase; Fp – planning phase; Fr –
implementation phase; Fi – phase of commissioning; Pl – project life cycle; Pm – is a
multiparametric environment; Mv – cost management; Mt – time management; Mk –
communication management; Ms – subject area management; Mc – changes
management; Mp – personnel management; Mr – risk management; Mq – quality
management; k – management parameters; Mf – management functions, Pp – project
product; Ee – external project environment; Ei – is an internal project environment.
External project environment Multiparametric changes
management environment of Cost management
Internal project environment infrastructure projects
k
Time management
Initiation k
Infrastructure project
k Communication
management
Planning Subject area
k k Project
Project management
management
life cycle Practical Changes functions
k
implementation management
k Personnel
Commissioning management
k
Risk management
k
Project Management
parameters Quality management
product
Fig. 2. Conceptual model-scheme of parameters formation for changes management in
infrastructure projects on the basis of project-oriented approach.
The first block reflects the life cycle of the infrastructure project and its impact on
the internal and external project environment
The second block is the block of project management functions, where in addition
to the basic ones, the changes management function of the infrastructure project will
be key. Research of the process of changes impact into infrastructure projects
management has allowed us to formalize the following definition:
Infrastructure project changes management - is a complex process of making and
implementing management decisions to ensure prompt response to any changes in the
amplitude of project deviations in order to minimize the negative manifestations of
crisis phenomena and the balanced functioning of its organizational and functional
subsystems.
The third block describes the interaction of project management functions with its
life cycle in a multiparametric environment of project changes management, and is
described by dependencies:
k = t;e;Mp;Mm; I ;r , (3)
where k – management parameters; t – time parameters; e – economic parameters;
Mp – planning and evaluation parameters; Mm – parameters of the chosen
methodology, organizational structure; I – parameters of change (technological,
organizational, environmental impact); r – parameters of risk exposure.
The fourth stage of the research is the process of determining the impact of
changes on the development of an infrastructure project. This process should be
considered in the context of the whole project life cycle, taking into account the
possible development of the project under the influence of changes (see Figure 3).
Project
success
scale (S)
100%
(e)
d1
75% d2
(f) d3
c1
d4
50% c2 d5
(g) c3
d6
b1
c4
d7
25% b2 c5 d8 Phases of
(h) a1 the
d9 project
b3 c6
life cycle
(F)
Initiation Planning Implementation Commissioning
phase (a) phase (b) phase (s) phase (d)
Fig. 3. Model - scheme of the development of infrastructure projects under the influence of
project changes at different stages of the project life cycle
This model-scheme is formed in a two-dimensional plane, built on the axes of the
abscissa (F - phase of the project lifecycle) and ordinates (S - scale of project success)
and includes all possible options for the development of infrastructure projects.
The peculiarity of the process of forecasting the development of infrastructure
projects is to take into account in the model six points of trifurcation that are located
at the intersection of the abscissa and ordinates (ah; bh; bg; cf; ch; cg), where is the
greatest impact of changes on the project.
The trifurcation points in a project – are places in the project that are affected by
project changes, and when they are responded to by applying a proactive management
methodology, they form 3 possible options for further development of the project:
positive, neutral and negative.
The scale of project success presented in the model is a conditional scale of values
of infrastructure project development in the range [0; 100%]:
- where [0] is the value of decline and closure of the project;
- [25%] - the project will be implemented, without many requirements, the
quality of the project product is low;
- [50%] - the project will be implemented, and half of the project requirements
and product quality of the project will be taken into account;
- [75%] - the project will be implemented, most of the project requirements and
product quality of the project will be taken into account;
- [100%] - the project will be implemented, all requirements for the project and
product quality of the project will be taken into account.
After analyzing this model-scheme, we have calculated all the probable variants of
infrastructure projects development under the influence of project changes, the results
are shown in Table 1.
Table 1. Results of distribution of probable variants of infrastructure project development
under the influence of project changes
Number of
The overall
Variant for variants for
S project importance
development of Points of development
success of
infrastructure trifurcation of
scale development
projects infrastructure
variants %
projects
100% a1b1c1d1 ah;bg;cf 1 6,25
a1b1c1d2
ah; bg; cf;
75% a1b1c2d4 3 18,75
cg; bh
a1b2c4d4
a1b1c1d3
a1b1c2d5
ah; bg; cf;
50% a1b1c3d7 5 31,25
cg; ch; bh
a1b2c4d5
a1b2c5d7
a1b1c2d6
a1b1c3d8 ah; bg; cg;
25% 4 25
a1b2c5d8 ch; bh
a1b2c4d6
a1b3
0% a1b2c6 ah; bh; ch 3 18,75
a1b2c5d9
Based on this systematization, we have received 16 variants of development of
infrastructure projects under the influence of project changes, which are reflected by 6
trifurcation points.
Thus, the share of possible variants for the development of infrastructure projects
in the range [25; 50%],
- 56% of the total number of infrastructure projects which will not be fully
realized and of poor quality;
- 18.75% of the variants for the development of infrastructure projects fail;
- 25% of the variants of infrastructure projects development in the range [75;
100%] will be successful and qualitatively implemented.
This confirms the direct dependence of each of the variants for the development of
infrastructure projects on the timeliness of management decisions, as a reaction to the
impact of project changes, and a quality project-oriented approach in the early stages
of the project life cycle is increasing the likelihood of its successful implementation.
4 Conclusions
The process of changes management in infrastructure projects has been investigated.
The scientific and methodological foundations and standards of management projects,
programs and portfolios of projects, modeling tools, system analysis methods and
proactive management mechanisms were used for the research. The result of the
research are:
1) expanding the terminological base of management projects, programs and
portfolios of projects by formalizing the concepts of "infrastructure project"
and "change management of infrastructure project";
2) a modified multicriteria classification of infrastructure projects has been
developed;
3) on the basis of project-oriented approach, a conceptual model-scheme model-
scheme of formation the parameters of changes management in infrastructure
projects has been formed, conceptual feature of which is the possibility of
using standard mono-templates of infrastructure projects, but taking into
account the multiparametric environment of project changes management and
environment of each unique project;
4) a model-scheme of the development of infrastructure projects under the
influence of project changes at different stages of the project lifecycle is
presented, which takes into account the impact of project changes at the points
of trifurcation, and allows forecasting of all possible variants for the
development of infrastructure projects.
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