=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-2565/paper11
|storemode=property
|title=Method and Software of Planning of the Substantial Risks in the Projects of Production of raw Material for Biofuel
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2565/paper11.pdf
|volume=Vol-2565
|authors=Аnatoliy Тryhuba,Vitalij Boyarchuk,Inna Tryhuba,Oksana Ftoma,Slawomir Francik,Mykola Rudynets
|dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/itpm/RyhubaBTFFR20
}}
==Method and Software of Planning of the Substantial Risks in the Projects of Production of raw Material for Biofuel==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2565/paper11.pdf
Method and Software of Planning of the Substantial
Risks in the Projects of Production of raw Material for
Biofuel
Аnatoliy Тryhuba1[0000-0001-8014-5661], Vitalij Boyarchuk1[0000-0002-2192-0143],
Inna Tryhuba1[0000-0002-5239-5951], Oksana Ftoma1[0000-0002-1234-0040],
Slawomir Francik2[0000-0002-4535-9450], and Mykola Rudynets3[0000-0002-0793-5963]
1 Lviv National Agrarian University, Dubliany, Lviv Region, Ukraine
trianamik@gmail.com
2 Uniwersytet Rolniczy im. Hugona Kollataja w Krakowie, Krakow, Poland
Slawomir.Francik@ur.krakow.pl
3 Lutsk National Technical University, Lutsk, Ukraine
rudinetc@meta.ua
Abstract. The research outlines the unsolved managerial tasks of planning of
the substantial risks in the projects of raw material production for biofuel with
consideration of the risks, caused by changeable natural-climatic and produc-
tion conditions of the region. In contrast to the existing methods, the described
method expects forecasting of the variable durations of the periods of a life cy-
cle of the projects of raw material production for biofuel. That method also
concerns changeable natural-climatic and production conditions of the region of
implementation of the project of raw material production for biofuel. The work
supplies the developed software, used to plan the substantial risks of the pro-
jects of raw material production for biofuel. Use of that software can secure
quantitative evaluating of the substantial risks for the conditions of Zabolottsi
community in Brody district of Lviv region. It is recommended to create the re-
serve of cropping area in the volume of 9.0…9.9 hectare in order to secure a
minimum substantial risk in the projects of rape production for biofuel under
conditions of Zabolottsi community.
Keywords: Project, Planning, Substantial Risks, Biofuel.
1 Introduction
Changeability of the market conditions and crisis manifests, which are particular for
agribusiness, argues consistency of the projects implementation. Moreover, the ap-
propriate managerial decisions in the progress of the projects implementation require
development and application of the instruments for their managing. Those instruments
should consider peculiarities of the domain and variability of the project environment.
The variability of the project environment is one of the principal reasons of risk mani-
Copyright © 2020 for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative Commons License
Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
2020 ITPM Workshop.
festation in the projects. However, there is a growing interest to the approaches in the
project environment, which suggest quantitative evaluation and argumentation of the
responses to risks, including ones in agrarian production [1-3].
The integrated projects of agrarian production are currently mainstream, including
the projects of production of raw material for biofuel [4-6]. Consideration of the risks
in the projects of raw material production for biofuel due to their appropriate plan-
ning, which is based on evaluation of variable components of the project environ-
ment, makes a basis for the adequate managerial decision-making, as well as reduc-
tion of losses because of agreement of their configuration with the substantial risks.
Nevertheless, completion of the process of planning of the substantial risks in the
projects of production of raw material for biofuel requires consideration of their pecu-
liarities, as well as development of the method and software for fulfillment of the
mentioned managerial process.
2 Analysis of Literary Data and Problem Statement
Development of the methods and models of project planning with risk consideration
in different domains is studied in numerous scientific works [7-9]. The scientists use
different software for planning of the projects [10-12], arguing their importance for
the theory of project management. However, those works do not consider changeable
natural-climatic, thematic and organizational-scale factors of risks of the projects of
raw material production for biofuel. Hence, it prevents the appropriate planning of the
need for natural resources, as well as evaluating of their risks and substantiating of the
resource reserves as a response to the risk.
The work [13-15] notes that planning of the resource consumption for implementa-
tion of the projects should be done with consideration of their variable components,
causing the risk of value. There is also a known method, developed in the work [16-
18], which substantiates the need for resources for production projects. It eliminates
some drawbacks of other methods. However, use of the method for planning of the
projects of raw material production for biofuel with consideration of the risk is impos-
sible because it expects calculating by the average figures of the impact of natural-
climatic, topic and organizational-scale factors on the need for raw material and field
area for its growing. The presented arguments indicate the need to develop a method
and software for planning of the projects of production of raw material for biofuel
with consideration of the substantial risks.
The aim of the work is to develop a method and software for planning of the sub-
stantial risks in the projects of production of raw material for biofuel with considera-
tion of changeable natural-climatic conditions of the region.
To reach the set goal, it is necessary to perform the following tasks: to argue the
method of planning of the substantial risks in the projects of raw material production
for biofuel; to develop software and make quantitative evaluation of the substantial
risk of the projects of production of raw material for biofuel in the set project envi-
ronment.
3 Method of Planning of the Substantial Risks in the Projects of
Production of raw Material for Biofuel
The proposed method of substantial risk planning in the projects of production of raw
material for biofuel with consideration of the substantial risks of their components in
the project environment expects performance of the following stages (Fig. 1).
Stage 1. Forecasting of variable durations of the periods of a life cycle of
the project of raw material production for biofuel
Stage 2. Determination of the need for variable volumes of raw material
production for biofuel with risk consideration
Stage 3. Determination of the need for field area for growing of energy
crops, used as raw material, with consideration of risks
Stage 4. Argumentation of the response to substantial risks of the project
of raw material production for biofuel
Fig. 1. Stages of the method of planning of the substantial risks in the projects of production of
raw material for biofuel
Stage 1. Forecasting of variable durations of the periods of a life cycle of the pro-
ject of raw material production for biofuel starts with the analysis of possible scenari-
os of its implementation. The fundamental for possible scenarios of implementation
of the project of raw material production for biofuel is supplied by the kind of agricul-
tural crops and technology of its growing. There are two kinds of agricultural crops,
i.e. annual (Fig. 3) and perennial. Each of the mentioned variants has its basic events,
causing the need and duration of performance of the blocks of works in the phase of
implementation of the project of raw material production for biofuel.
Basing on the graphical interpretation of durations of the periods of a life cycle of
the project of raw material production for biofuel (Fig. 2), one can suggest that, in the
projects with annual agricultural crops, there are three basic events with the probable
time of their occurrence. They include events of vegetation restart in the spring period
(Erest veg), appearance of harmful objects (Eapp harm) and ripening (Ecr rip) of agricultural
crops.
Fig. 2. Graphical interpretation of durations of the periods of a life cycle of the project of raw
material production for biofuel; tdel, timp, tcom – are durations of the phase of development, im-
plementation, and completion of the project respectively; tpr, ts, tf – are durations of the blocks
of works concerning preparation, sowing and stem formation respectively; tfert, tprot, tharv – are
durations of the blocks of works concerning fertilization, protection, and harvesting of agricul-
tural crops respectively; τst pr, τcom pr – is the time of start and completion of the preparatory
works respectively; τcom.s, τstop.veg – is the time of completion of sowing works and cease of
vegetation of agricultural crops respectively; τrest veg , τst tr – is the time of restart of vegetation in
the spring period and treatment of agricultural crops respectively; τst prot – is the time of start of
protection from harmful effect of raw materials objects; τst harv, τcom harv – is the time of start and
completion of harvesting of agricultural crops respectively
However, the basic event of vegetation restart (Erest veg) in the spring period along
with the variable natural-climatic conditions (precipitation, soil humidity, air tempera-
ture, etc.) causes the following derivative events, i.e. start of sowing (Est sow), for-
mation (Est form) and fertilization (Est fert) of agricultural crops. The basic events of
harmful objects appearance (Eapp harm) and ripening (Ecr rip) of agricultural crops force
the derivative events, such as the start of protection from harmful objects (Est prot) and
harvesting (Est harv) of agricultural crops respectively.
Referring to the figures of duration of some stages of implementation of the project
of raw material production for biofuel, it is possible to determine duration of the
phase of its implementation (timp):
tc.im = t pr + t s + t f + ttr + t feed + t plot + tharv . (1)
The forecasted duration of a life cycle of the project of production of raw material
for biofuel (tl) is measured by the formula:
tl = tin + tdev + timp + tcom , (2)
where ti, tdev, timp, tcom – is the duration of the phases of initiation, development, im-
plementation, and completion of the project of production of raw material for biofuel,
days.
Stage 2. The state expects assessment of the need for variable volumes of produc-
tion of raw material for biofuel with consideration of the risks of natural-climatic
conditions (variable durations of the period of growing of raw material crops, which
cause variable volume of some kinds of raw material) and risks of organizational-
scale components of the project environment, which are depicted by a variable need
for biofuel during the period, for which the need is argued.
і
The annual need Qkjр for raw materials, made of the k agricultural crops, which are
grown on the j field with p yield capacity, is determined by the formula:
і
Qkjр = М Qkрі tbi kkjр , (3)
where М Q – is the expected value of the forecasted daily need for raw materials,
і
kр
made of the k agricultural crops, which are grown on the j field with p yield capacity
in the i calendar year, hundredweight; tbi – is the duration of b period of biofuel pro-
duction, which is based on use of the k kind of raw materials, days; kkjр – is the factor
of the respective need for raw materials, made of the k agricultural crops, which are
grown on the j field with p yield capacity.
The expected value М Qkрі of the forecasted daily need for raw materials, made
of the k agricultural crops, which are grown on the j field with p yield capacity in the i
calendar year, is calculated by their energy value on the base of the dependences,
argued in the work [19-20].
The total annual need ( Qkі ) for raw materials, made of the k agricultural crops, is
calculated by the formula:
n
Qkі = Qkjі n j kloss st kloss tr kloss proc , (4)
j =1
where n j – is the number of biofuel consumers of the j category by the volume of
consumption, units; kloss st, kloss tr, kloss proc – are the coefficients of loss of raw materials,
made of the k kinds of agricultural crops, during its storage, transportation and pro-
cessing; n – is the number of the categories of biofuel consumers by the volume of
consumption, units.
Stage 3. Basing on the obtained figures of the total annual need ( Qkі ) for raw mate-
rials, made of the k agricultural crops in the i calendar year, it is possible to measure
the forecasted area of fields ( Skрі ), used for their growing:
Qkрі
Skрі = , (5)
М У kі K k
where M[Yki] – is the expected value of the forecasted yield capacity of the k agricul-
tural crops in the i calendar year, hwt/ha; K k – is the multiplicity of yield harvesting
of the k agricultural crop, units.
The expected yield Yki of the k agricultural crops, which are the raw materials for
biofuel, is characterized by variability. To determine its quantitative characteristics,
the statistical data of their producers of the studied administrative territory is used.
Referring to the used methods of mathematical statistics and statistical data on yield
Yki of the k agricultural crops, which are used as raw materials for biofuel in the i
calendar year, it is possible to get a set {Yki} of them. It is a fundamental for substanti-
ation of the density f(Yk) of its distribution law and specification of its main character-
istics:
expected value
j
М (У k ) = У kі Pi , (6)
i =1
where Yki – is the yield capacity of the k agricultural crops, used as raw material for
biofuel in the i calendar year, hwt/ha;
variance
j
D (У k ) = (У kі − У kс )2 Pi , (7)
i =1
where Ykcr – is the yield Yki of the k agricultural crops, used as raw material for biofuel
in the j category of the i calendar year, hwt/ha;
standard error
(У k ) = D (У k ) , (8)
variation factor
(У k )
(У k ) = . (9)
М (У k )
( )
Referring to the forecasted annual need Qkі for raw materials, made of the k agri-
( )
cultural crop in the i calendar year, and forecasted field area Skрі , used for the crop
growing, one can perform a set of calculations for the i calendar year with a change of
durations ( tbi ) of the periods of a life cycle of biofuel production. The obtained set of
( )
figures of the annual need Qkі for raw materials, made of the k agricultural crops in
( )
the i calendar year, and the forecasted area of field Skрі , used for its growing, supply
a basis for argumentation of their distribution and specification of the principal char-
acteristics by the formulas (6-9), characterizing the substantial risks of the projects of
production of raw material for biofuel.
Stage 4. The principal responses to the substantial risks of the projects of produc-
tion of raw material for biofuel include creation of the reserves of raw materials, made
of the k agricultural crop, or purchase of the raw materials at the market. To substanti-
ate responses to the substantial risks of the projects of raw material production for
biofuel, it is primarily needed to set limits of the change of needs for the annual re-
( )
serve R Qkі of raw materials, made of the k agricultural crops. To determine a max-
imum relative value of the annual reserve R Qkі ( ) of raw materials, made of the k
agricultural crops, the following formula can be used:
Qkmax − M Qk
R ( Qkі ) = 100 , (10)
M Qk
where Qkmax – is the maximum value of the annual need for raw materials, made of the
k agricultural crops, hundredweight; M Qk – is the expected value of the annual
need for raw materials, made of the k agricultural crops, hundredweight.
Having determined the limits of a possible change of the relative value of the re-
( )
serve R Qkі of raw materials, made of the k agricultural crops, one can measure
changes of the expenditures for creation of the reserve ВR Qі and costs С R Qі of
( k) ( k)
buying of the required materials at the market within the set range (Fig. 3).
Ex
pend- В R
itures
ВR , С R Qі
( )
k
UAH
. ВR Qі
( )k
Reserves of raw materials R Qkі , % ( )
Fig. 3. Determination of reasonable responses to the substantial risks of the projects of produc-
tion of raw material for biofuel: ВR Qі , С R Qі – are the expenditures for creation of the re-
( )k ( )
k
serve, and costs for buying of the deficient resource at the market respectively; ВR – is the
total costs for creation of the reserve of raw materials for biofuel production
Reasonable responses to the substantial risks of the projects of raw material pro-
duction for biofuel include those, which secure minimum total expenditures for crea-
tion of the reserve of raw materials, i.e. ВR → min .
The expected yield capacity Yki of the k kinds of agricultural crops varies on sepa-
rate fields and in i calendar years. Thus, the reserve area for their growing should be
calculated with consideration of its standard error (У k ) . However, the average costs
(expected values of the total costs) М ( ВR ) for determination of the reserve of field
( ) for some crops under the set figure of that reserve can be found by the
area R Sk
following formula:
R ( Sk )
М ( ВR ) = 0,5 ВR ( Sk ) R ( S k ) + ВR ( Sk ) ( R ( S k ) − R ( S k )n ) f ( R ( S k )n ) dR ( S k )n +
0
(11)
+CR ( Sk ) ( R ( Sk )n − R ( S k ) ) f ( R ( S k )n ) dR ( S k )n
R ( Sk )
where М ( ВR ) – is the expected value of the total costs for creation of the reserve
area for growing of crops, used as raw material, UAH; ВR ( Sk ) ,СR ( Sk ) – are the costs for
creation of the reserve of field area and losses because of their lack respectively,
UAH; R ( Sk ) ,R ( Sk )n – are the set figures of the reserve of the area under the crops,
(
used as raw material, and the needed reserve of the area respectively, %; f R ( Sk )n )
– is the density of distribution of the probable need for the reserve of area, intended
for growing of crops, used as raw material.
The first additive component of the formula (11) confirms that under no need for
the reserve of the area, used for growing of raw material crops (the probability ac-
counts for 0.5), biofuel producers will not experience losses, which account for ВR ( Sk )
multiplied by the value of that reserve. In case the current value of the reserve
R ( Sk )n does not exceed the figure R ( Sk ) , the expenditures are calculated by the
second additive component of the formula (11). If the need for the field reserve
R ( Sk )n for growing of crops, used as raw material, exceeds the figure R ( Sk ) , the
expenditures of biofuel producers will be determined by the third component of the
formula (11).
4 Results of Development and use of the Software for Planning
of the Substantial Risks in the Projects of Production of Raw
Material for Biofuel
There is the appropriately developed software, used to accelerate and improve plan-
ning of the substantial risks in the projects of production of raw material for biofuel. It
is based on the above-presented method, which expects consideration of natural-
climatic and organizational-scale risks of the projects of production of raw material
for biofuel. The software for planning of the substantial risks in the projects of raw
material production for biofuel is made in the Python 3.6 language. A work window
of the program is presented by the Fig. 4.
Fig. 4. A work window of the software for planning of the substantial risks in the projects of
production of raw material for biofuel.
Planning of the substantial risks in the projects of production of raw material for
biofuel was performed concerning the conditions of Brody district of Lviv region.
Basing on the analysis of the reporting documents of Brody district state administra-
tion, there is an argued need for biofuel in Zabolottsi community.
Using the developed software, which is based on the argued method of planning of
the substantial risks in the projects of production of raw material for biofuel, the au-
thors of the work have done quantitative assessment of the substantial risks and re-
sponses to them.
The response to the substantial risks of the projects of raw material production for
biofuel is manifested by creation of the reserve of raw materials, made of rape. It is
accepted that the reserve can be formed by purchasing of rape for biofuel at the mar-
ket and its production under conditions of Zabolottsi community. Referring to the
analysis of statistical data concerning market prices (as of November 10, 2019) of
rape on the territory of Lviv region, the research determines their average figures. It is
stated that the market price of rape was 1005 UAH/hwt, and the expected costs of
production on the territory of Zabolottsi community accounted for 750 UAH/hwt.
Basing on the used formula (10) and obtained data concerning expected value of
the annual need for rape, used as raw material for biofuel, there is a measured maxi-
( )
mum relative value of its annual reserve R Qkі . It supplied the opportunity to get the
( )
limits of a possible change of the relative value of the reserve R Qkі of raw material
for biofuel under the change of its need (Fig. 5).
500
The volume of raw material
reserve, hundredweight
450
400
350
300
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
Percentage of biofuel demand, %
Fig. 5. Dependence of the volume of rape reserve for production of biofuel on the change of
need for it
The obtained dependence (Fig. 5) confirms that the volume of reserve R Qkі ( ) of
rape, used as raw material, is proportionally changed under a change of the need for
biofuel Zn, that is a polynomial dependence of the third order. They are described by
the following equation:
(𝑄̅𝑘𝑖 ) = -0,0057 Zn3 + 0,0247 Zn2 + 6,296 Zn + 381, r = 0.97, r = 0.97, (12)
The obtained dependence (Fig. 5) is featured by the correlation factor 0.9 that sub-
( )
stantiates a strong correlation relation between the volume of reserve R Qkі of rape,
used as raw material for biofuel, and a change of the need for biofuel Zn.
Having got results of the forecast of the need for rape, used as raw material for bio-
fuel, as well as its specific market price and specific price of production under the set
conditions, one can calculate costs of creation of the reserve ВR Qі and costs С R Qі
( k) ( k)
of buying of the needed amount at the market. It enabled development of a depend-
ence of the noted expenditures on the percentage of the created reserve (Fig. 6).
The obtained dependence (Fig. 6) demonstrates that costs of creation of the reserve
of raw materials for biofuel, produced of rape, depend both on the source of their
reserve (buying at the market or producing), and on the share of the reserve substitu-
tion. It is determined that the maximum volume of the reserve of raw materials for
biofuel, made of rape, should constitute 8.5%
The least expenditures for creation of the reserve of raw materials for biofuel pro-
duction are observed in the variant, when the total volume of the reserve is produced
on the territory of a separate community. It provides the opportunity to eliminate the
impact of the substantial risks, caused by lack of raw materials for biofuel production,
on the risks of the projects of biofuel production. Thus, reasonable responses to the
substantial risks of the projects of production of raw material for biofuel include pro-
duction of the argued volume of its reserve on the territory of the community, secur-
ing the minimum total costs for its creation.
450 Production of raw material reserve
400 Purchase of raw material reserve
350 Total costs
Expenditures, UAH
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
Reserve, %
Fig. 6. Dependence of the costs of creation of the reserve of raw materials for biofuel, produced
of rape, on the share of its substitution
The forecasted yield Yki of rape, which is planned to be grown on the community
territory, is variable both on separate fields and in the i calendar years. According to
the statistical data, the set characteristics of distribution of the yield Yki of rape is set
for the conditions of Lviv region (Table 1).
The obtained statistical data on the characteristics of distribution of rape yield Yki
considering the conditions of Lviv region create a basis for measuring of the reserve
area for its growing.
Table 1. Characteristics of the distribution of rape yield Yki considering the conditions of Lviv
region
Kind of a crop, used as raw Statistical characteristics of distributions, hwt/ha
material М (У kі ) (У kі ) У kі min У kі max
Rape 45 6 39 51
Basing on the developed software for planning of the substantial risks in the pro-
jects of production of raw material for biofuel (Fig. 5) and obtained data concerning
characteristics of the distributions of rape yield Yki (Table 1), the research supplies the
set limits of a possible change of the forecasted volume of the field area reserve
( )
R Skі for growing of rape, caused by a change of the demand for biofuel concerning
the conditions of Zabolottsi community of Brody district in Lviv region (Fig. 7).
The obtained statistical data on the characteristics of distribution of rape yield Yki
considering the conditions of Lviv region create a basis for measuring of the reserve
area for its growing.
Basing on the developed software for planning of the substantial risks in the pro-
jects of production of raw material for biofuel (Fig. 5) and obtained data concerning
characteristics of the distributions of rape yield Yki (Table 1), the research supplies the
set limits of a possible change of the forecasted volume of the field area reserve
( )
R Skі for growing of rape, caused by a change of the demand for biofuel concerning
the conditions of Zabolottsi community of Brody district in Lviv region (Fig. 7).
18
The volume of reserve area
of fields for the production
17
of raw materials, ha
16
15
14
13
12
11
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
Percentage of biofuel demand, %
Fig. 7. Dependence of the volume of the field area reserve R Sk ( ) for growing of rape on a
і
change of the demand for biofuel
The obtained dependence (Fig. 7) argues that the forecasted volume of the reserve
( )
of field area R Skі for rape growing with the proportional change of the need for
biofuel Zn is changed according to the polynomial dependences of the third order.
They are described by the corresponding equation:
𝑅(𝑆𝑘̅ 𝑖 ) = -0,0002Zn3+0,0009Zn2 +0,233 Zn+14,111, r = 0.97, (13)
The obtained dependence (13) is characterized by the correlation factor within 0.94
that confirms a strong correlation relation between the volume of the field area
( )
R Skі for growing of rape and the demand for biofuel Zn.
1,0
0,8
The degree of risk
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Reserve area for rapeseed, %
integral curve of reserve of areas under rapeseed
integral curve of lack of reserve of areas under
rapeseed
Fig. 8. Dependence of the degree of substantial risks in the projects of production of raw mate-
rial for biofuel on the reserve of field area for growing of rape, used as raw material
Having got the results of forecasting of the volume of the field area reserve R Skі ( )
for growing of rape, used as raw material (Fig. 8), characteristics of the distribution of
its yield Yki (Table 2), costs of production of raw material for biofuel, as well as using
the formula (11), the authors of the article have calculated the average costs (expected
value of the total costs) М ( ВR ) for creation of the reserve of field area for rape
growing.
The completed calculations were used for development of the software for planning
of the substantial risks in the projects of production of raw material for biofuel (Fig.
5). It secured the opportunity to assess the degree of a substantial risk in the projects
of production of raw material for biofuel (Table 2).
Table 2. Results of assessment of the degree of a substantial risk in the projects of production
of raw material for biofuel
Limits of a change of the volume of field reserve for growing of
Kind of the crops, used as raw material, ha
crop, used as Critical Medium Permissible Minimum
High risk
raw material risk risk risk risk
0.61…0.8
0.81…1.0 0.41…0.6 0.21…0.4 0…0.2
Rape 8.7…10.3 10.31…11.2 11.3…12.1 12.2…13.3 13.4…16,5
According to the data of the Table 2, one can affirm that a minimum substantial
risk in the projects of raw material production for biofuel, which expects rape grow-
ing under conditions of Zabolottsi community, requires creating of the reserve of field
area in the volume – 9.0…9.9 ha.
The obtained figures concerning limits of the change of the volume of the field ar-
ea reserve for growing of rape, used as raw material, create a basis for consideration
of the substantial risks while making the plan of the need for resources to implement
the projects of production of raw material for biofuel.
5 Conclusions
The proposed method of planning of the substantial risks in the projects of production
of raw material for biofuel suggests a systemized performance of the four stages,
which, contrary to the existing methods, expect forecasting of variable durations of
the periods of a life cycle of the projects of production of raw material for biofuel,
along with consideration of natural-climatic conditions of the region, which secures
appropriate planning of the substantial risks, as well as qualitative assessment and
argumentation of the reserve of natural resources as a response to those risks.
Application of the developed software for planning of the substantial risks of the
projects of production of raw material for biofuel has provided the opportunity to
make quantitative evaluation of the conditions of Zabolottsi community in Brody
district of Lviv region. To secure the minimum substantial risk in the projects of
production of raw material for biofuel, which suggests growing of rape under
conditions of Zabolottsi community, it is necessary to create a reserve of field area in
the volume – 9.0…9.9 ha. The obtained figures concerning limits of the change of the
volume of field area reserve for growing of rape, used as raw material, make a
fundamental for consideration of the substantial risks while planning the need for
resources to implement the projects of production of raw material for biofuel.
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