=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-2565/paper21
|storemode=property
|title=Information-Analytical System Of Plants Harvesting Project Management
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2565/paper21.pdf
|volume=Vol-2565
|authors=Pavlo Lub,Andriy Sharybura,Leonid Sydorchuk,Andriy Tatomyr,Vitaliy Pukas,Michal Cupial
|dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/itpm/LubSSTPC20
}}
==Information-Analytical System Of Plants Harvesting Project Management==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2565/paper21.pdf
Information-Analytical System of Plants Harvesting
Project Management
Pavlo Lub 1[0000-0001-9600-0969], Andriy Sharybura 2[0000-0001-7329-8774],
Leonid Sydorchuk 1[0000-0003-4216-8808], Andriy Tatomyr 1[0000-0002-3274-7083],
Vitaliy Pukas 3[0000-0002-0083-7359], Michal Cupial 4[0000-0002-1984-6861]
1
Department of information systems and technologies,
Lviv National Agrarian University, Lviv, Ukraine
2
Department of machinery operation and maintenance services name of
Prof. O. D. Semkovych, Lviv National Agrarian University, Lviv, Ukraine
3
Department of tractors, automobiles and power tools,
Podilsk State Agrarian-Technical University, Kamyanets-Podilsk, Ukraine
4
Faculty of production and power engineering,
University of Agriculture in Krakow, Krakow, Poland
pollylub@ukr.net, ascharibura@gmail.com, pukas.ivanna@mail.ru,
Michal.Cupial@ur.krakow.pl
Abstract. The information technologies and IT projects applying aspects for
management decision support during the project's realization of material and
technical development in agricultural enterprises are analyzed. The components
that should be taken into account in the information-analytical systems of man-
agement decision support during the project's development of crop harvesting
technological systems are distinguished. The general scheme of the infor-
mation-analytical system of management decisions support in crop-harvesting
projects is presented. The using expediency of statistical simulation modeling
methods for the cumulative impact of unmanaged and stochastic components of
project environment on the work timeliness and effectiveness of these projects
are considered. Methods of statistical simulation with multiple iterations of vir-
tual crop harvesting projects were used. This helps to take into account the pro-
ject environment's stochastic nature, to perform computer experiments and to
process their results using mathematical statistics methods. The relationship be-
tween the components of the crop harvesting projects that affect their effective-
ness is shown. On the basis of the developed information-analytical system the
management decisions are grounded to coordinate the start-up time of crop har-
vesting projects and production area projects with the technical equipment pa-
rameters. It is shown, that the usage of IT in the project management of enter-
prises materially-technical re-equipment allows to accompany management de-
cisions and to ensure the effectiveness of these projects.
Keywords: Project, IT, Enterprise development, Project environment, Infor-
mation-analytical system, Modeling, Value, Support of management decisions.
Copyright © 2020 for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative Commons License
Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
2020 ITPM Workshop.
1 Introduction
The agricultural project's development is important to create long-term industry effi-
ciency [7;16;19]. An important sign of this efficiency is projects aimed at increasing
the income from agricultural production. Priority role in solving such problems
should be given to projects of materially-technical development of agricultural enter-
prise (AE). However, for their implementation, you need to have specific knowledge
of the project environment impact, project configuration and their objects, projects
structure and programs that are appropriate to implement in the industry. You also
need to have specific methods and models of project management in both the manu-
facturing and IT sectors. This will allow the creation and use of information-analytical
systems (ІАS) support of management decisions (SMD).
The projects management of AE development, including those related to the crop
cultivation and harvesting, requires the use of IAS, which take into account the nature
of the unmanaged components and affect the effectiveness of managing the respective
projects. In particular, ensuring the timely operational management of crop produc-
tion processes depends on agrometeorological conditions. Stochastic and unmanagea-
bility of these conditions leads to delayed crop harvesting. This increases the proba-
bility of crop technological loss. In practice, agro-meteorological conditions should be
forecasted, soil and crop conditions should be monitored, perform the analysis and
forecast tendencies of their change (yield increase, etc.), as well as make decisions
about the project start-up time and the duration of the respective operational process-
es. The effectiveness of these decisions depends on the IAS SDS adequacy and relies
on the information reliability about the project environment. The peculiarity of this
environment is that it is stochastic.
2 Analysis of Recent Research and Publications
The task of the start-up time determining [12] and project management [17;18], pro-
grams [19] and portfolios of their development are devoted so many scientific works
[1;3;6;15;20]. Particularly in agriculture, this problem is considered from the point of
the project work efficiency (implementation of mechanized technological processes
(TP)) [7;12;13]. For this purpose, the optimal time of their implementation there was
substantiated. Scientific and methodological bases of parameters rationalization of
project configuration (technological machines complexes) for timely execution of
works are developed [12;17;19]. In these works, the rational parameters of the tech-
nical equipment are determined by the cost criterion – the minimum specific total cost
of funds (operating costs and losses of the harvested crop). The solution of these man-
agement problems is based on the task of start-up time determining of the relevant
work in projects (start-up time of projects, programs and portfolios). In particular, this
problem has already been solved in the practical plane [12] and a method for deter-
mining the optimal startup time for sugar beet harvesting (SBH) projects was made in
a given natural area. The analysis of the developed methods convinces them that they
do not consider the influence of the managerial component – the possibility of using
the different technical equipment of projects, different time of their start-up and extent
of work (area of culture). However, this scientific work has revealed the methodolog-
ical features of its solution based on statistical simulation modeling [4;8;11;14],
which is important from the point of the IAS SMD development. Determining the
optimal start-up time for SBH projects is based on the technological criteria. There-
fore, these provisions are initial and require development from the point of relevant
technological systems (TS) project management.
The aim of the research is to demonstrate the IAS SMD structure and to estab-
lish the effectiveness regularities of the SBH projects for different parameters of tech-
nical equipment, the start-up time of these projects and the production area of plants.
3 Results of Research
It is a well-known fact that the first step in developing models for evaluating man-
agement decisions to support projects and their implementation is to identify goals,
external and internal environments, as well as the features of their interaction and the
overall impact on the performance of these projects.
According to the project management knowledge system, specific project man-
agement methods and models throughout their life cycle need to be applied in order to
achieve these goals. Therefore, in order to develop the IAS SMD for estimating the
value of projects under incertitude, it is necessary to draw on the experience and
knowledge of previous projects [2;5]. However, the use of this approach has its disad-
vantages. In particular, there are limitations in the projects implementation with the
number of qualified managers in the team, projects have their own characteristics and
it is not always possible to use the experience of previous ones, etc. Therefore, IT
should be used for effective project management, enabling them to take into account
their particularities on the basis of the development of specialized methods and mod-
els for IAS SMD.
The objectives of IAS SMD also included the tasks of projects development of
material and technical re-equipment of AE well as formation of production resources.
This makes it possible to accomplish the objectives of agricultural production projects
while ensuring the limited use of scarce resources. In fact, the development of TS of
AE projects are geared towards material-level linkage at the crop area, a set of spe-
cialized machines attached to them, and contractors. These parameters of the TS, in
case they are mutually agreed, make it possible to provide an extreme of performance
indicators for both individual TS projects and their systemic efficiency.
Based on the theory of project management, it should be emphasized [1;9;13],
that other projects of production subsystems are being implemented for the effective
functioning of such production systems. This set (project program) includes a number
of interrelated projects. The management of the projects which are the part of agricul-
tural production programs (in particular, the cultivation and crops harvesting), are
carried out jointly and simultaneously to ensure their coordination and obtain a sys-
temic (synergistic) effect and increase controllability. This cannot be achieved with-
out the use of IAS SMD.
It is known from the subject area that the time of launching crop harvesting pro-
jects depends on such components of the project environment as the condition of the
fields and the rate of yield [12;14]. This time for individual cultures and projects also
depends on the available technical capacity [19]. Determining the timing of arable
projects starts is an important management task, the resolution of which largely de-
termines their value, in particular, the volume of the harvest. Methods for determining
the time of project start-up should take into account the stochasticity of the project
environment, which is caused by the influence of agrometeorological conditions [12].
Thus, in agrarian production there is a scientifically applied problem of increasing the
value of harvesting projects based on the development of IAS to evaluate the impact
of their start-up time, volume of work and technical equipment parameters on the
performance of these projects.
The use of IAS SMD to coordinate the startup time (τsh) of the SBH projects and
the production area (S) of the crop with the technical equipment parameters of these
projects plays an important role in ensuring the minimum specific aggregate cost of
the funds. The establishment of these cost estimates is based on the functional indica-
tors of the respective TP, which we obtained on the basis of computer experiments
with the developed IAS (statistical simulation model of the TP SBH in MS Visual
Studio C # [10]) (Fig. 1).
Formation of initial data and knowledge
Model of agrometeorolo- Model of field soil Model of crop yield
gical conditions condition
Model of the project environment
Statistical simulation model of works in crop harvesting projects:
- model of works for calendar days;
- model of works for the calendar season.
Mathematical analysis of simulation results:
Functional indexes: 1) biological losses – M [Qb ] , c/ha; 2) technological losses –
M [Qt ] , c/ha; 3) unharvested area – M [S n ] , hа.
Cost indexes: 1) operational expenses – Boe, UAH/hа; 2) technological losses –
Btl, UAH/hа; 3) total costs – B, UAH/hа.
Search for goal function – В = Вoe+Вtl → тіп.
Generalization of simulation results in IAS
and the development of SMD recommendations
Fig. 1. Generalized scheme of information-analytical system of management decisions support
during the crop harvesting projects.
The basis of this model is the system-event display of daily stages of work in
projects, which allowed taking into account:
1) stochastic influence of the natural (agrometeorological and biological) com-
ponent on the calendar terms of root crop harvesting and the naturally allowed time
fund for the operation of technical equipment (beet harvester);
2) daily increase of root crops weight, as well as the impact of this indicator on
daily harvesting rates;
3) the influence of the production area of the crop and the productivity of the
combine on the duration of the respective TP, and therefore on the functional indica-
tors of their efficiency.
Such a sequence of TP modeling in the developed IAS SMD is implemented in a
pre-designed program of computer experiments. This will assess the impact of man-
agement decisions on the coordination of component projects – startup time (τst), pro-
duction area (S) of culture and technical equipment parameters (Pte) on the perfor-
mance indicators (E) of these projects. To account their cumulative effect on E for a
given τst, S and Pte, the Np of iterations model was performed. Then τst was shifted on
1 day and the simulation was repeated. The increase in τst was performed for calendar
limits from 260 (September 18) to 300 (October 28) days with increments of 1 day.
Next, the S area was increased from 60 to 300 ha with an increase of 20 ha. Then, for
each variant, the Pte repeatedly performed the specified steps of the simulation. The
results obtained were recorded in the corresponding data sets.
The reason for the Np iterations (implementations) of the TP statistical simula-
tion model in the developed IAS SMD is the need to take into account the probabilis-
tic impact of the project environment. In particular, agro-meteorological and biologi-
cal-subject components may affect the performance of TP and, in particular, their
timeliness. Therefore, the simulation results are obtained as a set of data to perform
the following mathematical processing. For this purpose, the IAS uses mathematical
statistics methods, which allow constructing the regularity of changes in the estimates
of mathematical expectations of projects performance. The regularities obtained are
an important basis for assessing the impact of the respective constituent projects, and
therefore the support of management decisions regarding the implementation of TS
projects and projects of material and technical development of AE.
Establishing regularities of the mathematical expectation estimates of specific
biological M [Qb ] and technological M [Qt ] losses volumes on the basis of the IAS
SMD allow to estimate the specific cumulative cost, and thus to reconcile the τst of the
SBH projects and the crop production area with the technical equipment parameters.
Cost estimation of specific technological losses (Btl) of funds is performed by the
formula:
U S n Vk
Btl = nd , (1)
S
where Uпd – current yield of root crops, remaining in d-th day on the unharvested area
Sт, c/ha; Vk – market value of sugar beet, UAH/ha; S – production area of the plant,
ha.
For determine the specific operational expenses (Boe) where use the well-known
formula:
Boe = C1 + C2 + C3 + C4 , (2)
where С1 – labor payment, UAH/hа; С2 – the fuel and lubricants cost, UAH/hа;
С3 – depreciation for technical equipment, UAH/hа; С4 – repair and maintenance
costs, UAH/hа.
The developed statistical simulation model of TP SBH, which is a component of
IAS SMD, allows reflecting the peculiarities of the use of technical equipment (beet
harvesters) in the projects of SBH. Its application also allows taking into account the
objective impact of agrometeorological and biological components on the timing and
pace of relevant work, as well as forming a representative set of data for subsequent
analysis of the effectiveness of management decisions. In addition, computer experi-
ments with a simulation model of virtual projects make it possible to justify manage-
ment decisions about the feasibility of using technical equipment with these or those
parameters.
As already mentioned, it is advisable to justify such decisions on the basis of in-
dicators of work timeliness in projects – change regularities of biological and techno-
logical losses. In particular, the use of these patterns and well-known cost estimation
techniques in the projects made it possible to establish the specific total costs B, and
thus to agree on the τst, S and Pte of the projects.
It should be mentioned that the peculiarities of the method of solving this man-
agement problem also takes into account the variability of the technological (harvest-
ing) works execution in the projects of TP SBH. These rates are due to the productivi-
ty of technical equipment (beet harvesters) in the fields, as well as organizational and
technological forms of project implementation. The performance of the technical
equipment depends on the geometric (physical) parameters of the fields, as well as the
characteristics of the harvest (which belongs to the objective component of the project
environment), and therefore the rate of harvest will depend on these components. In
addition, the pace of work in TP projects is still dependent on the spatial location of
the fields with the harvest, harmonization with transport system projects, and the op-
eration of the relevant reloading and transport vehicles [7;12].
An important requirement for the IAS is the need to take into account the tem-
poral changes in the physical and biological state of the cultivated crop, including
sugar beet. This state changes objectively. It depends on the τst of the SBH projects
and varies over the duration of the seasonal work in these projects. The patterns of
change in the state of the plant and plant component of the project environment are
characteristic for each individual field that is included in the TP SBH projects. At the
τst, this status is different and also changes during the work implementation.
Knowledge about the regularities of change of the plant component before the τst of
these projects, as well as its importance at the moment of execution of the correspond-
ing works, allows predicting this state for any moment of the project realization. The
possibility of predicting this condition is the basis for estimating potential losses due
to premature or untimely execution of relevant works in projects. In case of premature
performance, losses will be caused by a crop failure which is still growing and has not
reached its maximum [12]. If the work on the projects lasts until the onset of autumn
frosts, and part of the area with the harvest reached remains unaccounted, then the
harvest is damaged by low temperatures. In the TP simulation model, this crop is
identified as lost and is determined by the amount of not harvested area.
The possibility of probabilistic estimation of crop losses in the projects of TP
SBH in case of premature and untimely execution of the corresponding works makes
it possible to assess the risks. On this basis, management decisions on the correctness
of the values of mutually agreed components – the τsh, S and Pte are substantiated. If
necessary, the possibility of adjusting these components and minimizing the involved
risks could be evaluated.
The implementation of the main stages of work modelling in the SBH projects
and calculations for the technical equipment (beet harvesters and root crops tractor
trailers-reloaders) of different capacity allowed to optimize the production area of Sopt
culture (fig. 2), as well as to establish its dependence from the τsh of these projects and
capacity Nen of the technical equipment (fig. 3).
10000
Specific cumulative costs B, UAH/ha
9500
3 4
9000
1 2
8500
8000
S3opt=130hа
S1opt=100hа S2opt=120hа S4opt=140hа
7500
60 80 100 120 140area S, hа 160
Production
Fig. 2. The dependence of the specific total costs in the BSP projects on the produc-
tion area of sugar beet (for τsh=275 day) with different technical equipment:
1 – Franz Kleine SF-10-2 (275 kW), HTZ-242К.20+Franz Kleine LS 16;
2 – SKS-624 «Polesie BS624-1» (290 kW), HTZ-243К.20+Hawe Ruw 2500Т;
3 – Holmer Terra-Dos Т2 (308 kW), HTZ-243К.20+Hawe Ruw 2500Т;
4 – Ropa Euro-Tiger V8-3 (444 kW), Claas Axion 930+TPZ-49 Atlant + PZS-40.
The optimization calculations were performed on the basis of the numerical
method, according to which for each value of the argument (production area of the
crop) the specific operating costs for the execution of works in the SBH projects and
the specific technological losses of root crops were determined. The optimal value of
the Sopt production area for the given technical equipment of projects is determined
graphically:
1) graphically depicted the dependencies of specific operating costs, specific
technological losses and specific total costs of funds;
2) determined the areas at which the minimum values of the specific total cost of
funds are reached;
3) fixed the optimum value of the production area for the corresponding harvest-
ing projects start time.
200
Optimal production area Sopt, ha
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
260
265 W
270 ,k
en
N
Pro
ject 275 ent
s sta 444 ipm
rt tim 280 qu
308
ic al e
e τs 285 chn kW
t , da
y 290
290
o f te N en,
r t
274 we en
Po uipm
l eq
ica
t echn opt
Fig. 3. Dependence of the optimum plant production ro
farea (S ) on the startup time
we technical equipment.
(τsh) of the SBH projects and the capacity (Nen) ofPothe
The results obtained confirm the hypothesis and state the practical possibility of
harmonization of the project environment components of TP SBH (start time of pro-
jects, production area of culture and parameters of technical equipment) at which the
extreme of the efficiency function is achieved – the minimum specific total costs of
projects. According to it, the execution of computer experiments with a statistical
simulation model of virtual projects of TP SBH and mathematical processing of their
results in IAS SMD allows to establish statistical regularities of efficiency indicators
change of these projects. On this basis, decisions are made to improve the efficiency
of the TS project management, and therefore the material and technical development
of the AE.
According to it, to provide the implementation of the SBH projects it is neces-
sary to have: 1) IAS, which allow to quantify the indicators of project effectiveness
and their risk; 2) qualified personnel who will monitor the state of the project envi-
ronment and create a database for IAS SMD; 3) a management component with ap-
propriate equipment that will use the IAS, monitoring data and evaluate the effective-
ness of the works’ content in the projects; 4) appropriate technical equipment; 5) re-
quired amount of labor, material, information resources, etc.
4 Conclusions and Prospects of Further Researches
The development of information-analytical system, including statistical simula-
tion models of technological system projects of the field allows carrying out research
of these projects, to evaluate the content and timeliness of works and to justify man-
agement decisions under probable conditions of the project environment.
Taking into account the information-analytical system support of management
decisions on the influence of the agrometeorological component on the course of
work in the respective projects allows obtaining objective results of computer experi-
ments.
On this basis, they establish the regularities of changes in the efficiency indica-
tors with the appropriate technical equipment of the projects, starting time of the
works and the volume of the culture production area.
The choice of one or another reconciliation of the startup time of the sugar beet
harvesting projects and the production area of the crop with the parameters of the
technical equipment should be considered in the context of the technological system
of the individual agricultural enterprise.
The use of technical equipment of different capacity (Nen = 275; 290; 308 and
444 kW) in the sugar beet harvesting projects causes the increase of the optimal pro-
duction area of the crop (for τsh = 275 day (October 3) – Sopt = 100; 120; 130 and 140
ha respectively, fig. 2) as well as an increase in specific aggregate costs (B = 7786.6;
8176.2; 8305.5 and 8423.7 UAH/ha).
Offsetting the startup time of these projects from 260 (September 18) to 285 day
(October 13) necessitates a reduction in the optimal production area of the crop by
68.8-55.0% for the technical equipment of the corresponding capacity (fig. 3).
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