The authors present an approach to conflict management in groups of operators, which is to enhance the effectiveness of Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) in an organizational setting. The decision making (DM) models such as DM in Risk and Uncertainty, DM in Certainty offered. The authors made an analysis of the International civil aviation organization (ICAO) documents on risk assessment. To determine the quantitative characteristics of risk levels, models for DM by the operators of the aviation systems under risk and uncertainty have been developed. The new methodology includes the process of Integration Deterministic Stochastic and Non-Stochastic Uncertainty Models for Network Planning models in Conflict Situations.
Conflict management has advantages in different organization systems, including in Aviation systems, where operators decision making in difficult situations. Properly managed conflict can improve group results of decisions [1; 2]. The effectiveness of aviation systems and the provision of flight safety still depend primarily upon the reliability of aviation specialists and human decision making, individual and group outcomes of decisions.
In aviation, significant attention is paid to Safety Management. Safety is the state in which the risk is reduced to and maintained at or below, an acceptable level through a continuing process of hazard identification and risk management [3; 4]. In determining an acceptable level of safety, it is necessary to consider such factors as the level of risk that applies the cost/benefits of improvements to the system, outcomes after a decision by Conflict management methods, and public expectations on the safety of the aviation industry.
To determine an acceptable level of risk and balance between decision
performance and safety requirements, it is necessary to have quantitative characteristics of
DM under risk conditions in conflict (critical) situations. Safety is a dynamic
characteristic of aviation with the help of which risk factors for flight safety should steadily
decrease. The adoption of efficiency indices of ensuring flight safety is frequently
influenced by internal and international standards and also by cultural features [
International civil aviation organization constantly develops and improves proactive, based on the evaluation of the risks. A modern approach, founded on the characteristics (performance-based approach – PBA), based on the next three principles monitoring [7; 8].
the main accent on desired/necessary results; decision making, oriented on desired/necessary results; using facts and data while DM.
Herein the principle “using facts and data while decision making” admits that tasks shall comply with the widely known in Western management criteria SMART (specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and tіmebound) [3; 8].
The Global Air Traffic Management Operational Concept [
Such a level of accuracy of tasks determination may be achieved only using the new methodology includes the process of Integration Stochastic and Non-Stochastic Uncertainty Models for Network Planning models in Conflict Situations.
The purposes of the work are: analysis multi-DM in certainty using Network Planning Models for all operators in the same organization; building DM models - DM in Uncertainty and DM under Risk for maximization of effectiveness and minimization of risks in the Network Planning Model for operators in the organization. 2
The integration Stochastic and Non-Stochastic Uncertainty Models to Deterministic Model of Multi-Decision Making 2.1
Deterministic Models in Multi-Decision Making The Decision making by operators in a conflict situation and for the analysis of the actions of operators with the aid of the Network Planning methods gave a chance to obtain: 1. Identify the technology of H-Os for the project.
Determination of a group of DM in problem/conflict situation for building a multi DM graph.
Expert estimation of priority of DM in problem/conflict situation using Expert Judgment Method (EJM) Decomposition of main technology (problem/conflict situation) on procedures of each DM graph.
Flowchart of performance technology works (problem/conflict situation) by procedures for each DM graph.
Determination of the times of operating procedures using the Expert Judgment Method (according to experimental, to statistics data too).
Structural-timing table of operational procedures and time on the operating procedures in main technology (problem/conflict situation).
Network graph of operating procedures main technology (problem/conflict situation).
Analysis each part of main technology (problem/conflict situation) using assessment by DM in Stochastic Uncertainty (DM in Risk) and Non-stochastic Uncertainty (DM in Uncertainty) methods. 10. Integration of Deterministic and Stochastic models for CDM. 11. Determination of critical time for each DM in the project (problem/conflict situation) and main DM.
12. Determination of the critical path for each DM of the project main DM
As known, the environmental conditions (natural, social, communication, etc.)
determine the reaction of operators, while the reaction of the latter, in its turn, changes
the environmental conditions themselves. The systemic analysis has been carried out
as well as the formalization of the factors which affect DM by operators in the Air
Navigation System (individual-psychological, psycho-physiological and
socialpsychological) in the emergency [11; 12]. The impact of individual-psychological and
socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of operators during the
conflict situation and development from normal to catastrophic has been studied. On the
basis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice, the expected risks of DM have been
studied and the influence of the external environment, previous experience and
intention of the operator have been identified [
It is very important to create highly intelligent joint DM systems for operators
those decision problems in the one team. In research are presented DM models for
operators (pilots of manned and unmanned aircraft, air traffic controller's , engineers,
flight dispatch, etc.) in emergencies in ANS [
In the recent documents, ICAO defined new approaches - the organization of Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) by all aviation operators using collaborative DM models (CDMM) based on general information on the flight process and features of the critical situation [9; 10].
In the process of analysis and synthesis of DM models in critical situations makes sense to simplify complex models and solutions. So, for example, stochastic and nonstochastic of uncertainty models, the Markov and GERT-models, reflexion models integrate into deterministic models. The models for decision and predicting of the critical situation using CDMM – technology presented in Table 1.
of potential loss - functions of estimation risk R / outcomes U for next models of DM in Risk and Uncertainty-{gr}
Stochastic models types’ tree, GERT’s network for DM and critical situation developing. The optimal solution is found by the criterion of an expected value with the principle of risk - Adopt
tainty models). In DM matrix: alternative actions А = {А1, А2, … Аi ,…, Аm}, states of situation or factors λ = {λ1, λ2, … λj ,…, λn} and outcomes uij
Network Planning method and DM in Risk / Uncertanty for each branch. Determined models for an operators with deterministic procedure - ti; ;Тcr;Тmid;Тmin;Тmax
However, for the formation (modeling) of DM, H-O has the property such as the ability to apply different levels of DM complexity depending on the factors that influence the DM. For DM in a difficult situation (S) it is necessary to identify: The class of situation (Q); Level of Complexity (U); Choosing the optimal actions (A*).
For example, Q = {qj} - the set of consequences of choosing the completion alternative; U = {uj} - vector of the characteristics of the consequences, the results of the choice of the alternative of the completion; A = {ai} is the set of alternative solutions) and choice the optimal actions (A*).
On Figure 1 scheme of process of simplifying a difficult situation presented. This process is necessary to apply for complex systems and solution too. It is important to create Expert system (ES) when analyzing the complexity, significance, and responsibility of subsystems before synthase and synchrony of collaborative mathematical models.
Fig. 1. The scheme of process of simplifying a difficult situation
The ES, one branch of artificial Intelligence (AI), is a computer system that
simulates the DM ability of a human-operators. The ICAO documents recommend
developing Intelligent ESs in aviation to support of operators [
The Algorithm of the building of Expert Systems. 1. Building main components of ES: Users interface; Database; Base Knowledge. W j' Fiji , i 1,n, j 1,m , (5)
(6) i1 4. Results of significance of subsystems in ES.
To build an ES, it is necessary to determine the significance of the subsystems (parameters, characteristics, values, etc.) in the system, which is investigated with the help of expert knowledge. The main method for building the Knowledge Base in the Expert System is the EJM. To build an ES, the following Algorithm of Expert Judgment Method is used:
Algorithm of Expert Judgment Method (EJM) 1) Questioners for experts, m – is a number of experts, m 30
Matrix of individual preferences - determine opinion of the experts and their systems of individual preferences, Ri – is a system of preferences of i-expert, i 1,m . 2) Matrix of group preferences Rij 3) The experts’ group opinion Rgrj (sample average, arithmetical mean): Rgrj i1m 4) The coordination of experts’ opinion: a. Dispersion for each factors (procedures, phases of flight of the aircraft,…): m Rgrj Ri 2 Dj i1
m 1 b. Square average deviation (Squared deviations): j j Rgrjj 100% W 12S
m m2 (n3 n) m j1 Tj d. Kendal’s coefficient of concordance or to provide interrogation of the experts: , t critical rs n 2 tst . b. The significance of the calculations Rs using Student's t - criterion:
Fig. 2. The DM in certainty for 3 operators (H-Os) The parallel process of simultaneous execution of technological operations in the situation can be represented as a consolidated multi-channel network. For a consistent optimization of such a network in order to achieve the cross-cutting efficacy of joint decisions, it is advisable to use a multi-criteria approach: achieving a minimum time for consolidation of critical situation operators' actions. Ways to optimize the network graph for performing procedures by operators in the critical situation (by minimizing time with maximum safety) are:
Aopt minRm.
Risk of CDM by the operators in the critical situation (Fig. 3, situation S2): = ( ; { , α, , }) = (∑ =1 + α ), where and (<; >) −1.
For example, for decision tree in Fig. 3: 3( 41; 42) = 41, because 41 < 42, where 41 = 3( 411 411 + 412 412) + α41; 42 = 3( 421 421 + 422 422) + α42; Analogically for 2( 31; 32) and 1( 11; 12): 2( 31; 32) = 32, 31 > 32, 1( 11; 12) = 12, 11 > 12.
A11; α11 1 A12; α12 11 12
In order to simulate CDM under conditions of a critical situation, the next steps are a deep analysis of CS; intelligent data processing; identification of situation; formalization of the situation using integrated models; decomposition of the complex situation into subclasses; synthesis of adapted deterministic models to determine certain actions.
For decision-making in the presence of several decisions (part of situation S1), it is advisable to apply the DM model in uncertainty. In conditions of non-stochastic uncertainty, when the probability distribution that corresponds to the factors which influence the decision making (DM), either unknown or cannot be determined, the methodological basis for CDM is a matrix of decisions in Uncertainty (Figure 4). After correction network graphs using Stochastic and Non-Stochastic Uncertainty Models next step the determination of critical time and the critical path of the optimal collective solution
Conclusion The CDM an uninterrupted process of presenting information and individual DM by various interacting participants, as well as providing synchronization of decisions taken by participants and the exchange of information between them. It is important to ensure the possibility of making a joint, integrated solution with partners at an acceptable level of efficiency. This is achieved by completeness and accuracy of available information. Solutions planning should provide using DM different models such as deterministic models; stochastic and non-stochastic of uncertainty models; the Markov and GERT-models, reflexion models. After analysis of the situation needs synthesis (aggregation) of stochastic models for the correction of deterministic model.