Copyright © 2019 for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) New Technologies: Challenges to International Security and Stability Nataliya P. Romashkina International Security Center Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) Moscow, Russia Romachkinan@yandex.ru Abstract—Article presents comprehensive analysis of the most The information and cyber warfare of some states against relevant threats in informational sphere, which represent the the others may lead to similar level of destruction compared to danger for international peace and carry global and strategical traditional wars, and new information and communication nature. Author underlines that existence of these threats requires technologies can become a detonator for unleashing an immediate development of mechanisms for international interstate military conflict using strategic and even nuclear administration and control. Currently many states consider weapons. Currently new ICTs are already actively used in the military confrontation as a resistance taking place not only military organization and infrastructure, and this creates new within four standard domains: earth, naval, air and near-earth objective problems. The most important of ICT threats are space, but also in informational and cyber space. It raises the those in field of strategic and, in particular, nuclear weapons. problem of application of informational and communicational technologies (ICTs) for military and political purposes to Thus, ICTs are already affecting the level of strategic stability. perform hostile actions and acts of aggression. Indications of Therefore, ensuring international security and strategic stability such problem were identified in the article along with military becomes one of the most important and urgent tasks of the means, which contribute to conduction of informational and world community in the modern digital era. It requires the cyber operations. Cyberwarfare adds unpredictability and development and modernization of international governance uncertainty to international military and political relations and and control mechanisms. At the same time, one does not need reduces the level of strategic stability. The article describes the to fundamentally change the basic principles of international main factors of global effect of information and communication governance, because ICT threats exacerbate, complicate, technologies on strategic stability. The analysis of modern deepen, reinforce and modify the problems existing in this area. approaches to define the concept of strategic stability in the ICT era as well as new characteristics of instability of the modern No single country in the world can consider itself protected international politico-military system are presented. Arguments from such cross-border information and cyber threats and is underlying the need to develop mechanisms of international able to solve global information security problems alone. governance in this area are provided. Suggested specific international actions performed together with Russia in response II. APPLICATION OF INFORMATIONAL AND to current global challenges to international security and COMMUNICATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES FOR MILITARY AND strategic stability may become one of such instruments. POLITICAL PURPOSES TO PERFORM HOSTILE ACTIONS AND Keywords—information security; information and ACTS OF AGGRESSION communication technology (ICT); strategic stability; information Information and cyber operations provide unique weapons; information threat; cyber threat; cyber attack; cyber- opportunities for creating a destructive effect in the modern electromagnetic activity; cyber warfare; cyber war; nuclear world. Military means for these operations include strategic weapons. communications, interagency coordination groups, cyber and space operations, information support, intelligence, special I. INTRODUCTION technical procedures, etc. [1]. st In the 21 century, information revolution has posed The United States has been the undisputed world leader in fundamentally new questions to humanity that have already this area for many years. According to famous American attained international and global importance. Along with scientists, “In today's global information age, victory may unique capabilities, rapidly developing information and sometimes depend not on whose army wins, but on whose communication technologies (ICTs) pose global challenges and story wins” [2]; cyber technology “can be a decisive force threats. Information sabotage in the ICT space has become a multiplier if employed carefully, discriminately, and at new tool for non-state collective and individual subjects. precisely the right time” [3]; “The soft power of attraction Methods using ICT are turning into an important element of the becomes an even more vital power resource than in the past, politico-military potential of states complementing and but so does the hard, sharp power of information warfare” [4]. sometimes even replacing traditional political and diplomatic Moreover, the strategy of information superiority attainment, means and weapons. which is defined in the US as the ability to collect, process and 65 spread a continuous flow of information, depriving the amplify and modify those problems, which have always existed adversary of the ability to carry out such actions, has been in maintenance of the nuclear weapons security. under development for several decades, which has been reflected in doctrinal documents and in practice by running Thus, the threats of the application of new technologies are information operations. This situation has created a trend to caused by the development of cyber weapons, use of ICTs to increase additional global risks and is directly related to the interfere in the internal affairs of states, and development of problem of strategic stability maintenance. Therefore, it ICTs for harmful influence on military-industrial complex requires special attention from specialists. Another crucial and objects. The international security threats are further enhanced relevant trend in the development of ICT space is associated with the development of remote-controlled military combat with the problem of security of ICT systems, which are of robot systems [6], military-grade artificial intelligence [7], strategic importance for most countries around the world. machine learning, the autonomous operation of various systems These systems have become an important factor ensuring and subsystems, automated decision-making systems, etc., that sovereignty, defense and security of the state. Moreover, today may be exposed to ICT attacks, as well as means of cyber- one considers a threat to the development of so-called electromagnetic activity, which is actively developed in the information and cybernetic weapons. According to some USA. Cyber electromagnetic activities are activities leveraged to seize, retain, and exploit an advantage over adversaries and estimates, more than 30 states already have offensive cyber weapons. ICTs can provoke the interstate military conflict, enemies in both cyberspace and the electromagnetic spectrum, primarily because of the possibility of disproportionate use of while simultaneously denying and degrading adversary and methods responding to threats and attacks. For example, the enemy use of the same and protecting the mission command injured party can use real weapons in response to the use of system. CEMA consist of cyberspace operations (CO), cyber weapons. In addition, a conflict may occur by mistake, as electronic warfare (EW), and spectrum management operations there is no universal methodology for identifying violators, and (SMO) [8]. criteria for classifying cyber attacks as an armed aggression In addition to technological characteristics, there is also a have not yet been developed together with universal principles psychological one, which can be formulated as the loss of fear for investigating such incidents. To date, a wide range of ICTs of a nuclear war among society and political elites of the West has been created that can be used in the military field. They countries. This can significantly lower the threshold for the use include: of the weapons. Moreover, the most dangerous belief seems to • Warfare with Command and Control System, being a be a conviction that a local "small" nuclear war is possible and military strategy using information environment on the the victory can be reached there. The tendency to spread such battlefield to physically destroy the enemy command structure, views has arisen with the help of modern ICTs, allowing affecting a huge audience in a relatively short time with no • Intelligence warfare, being offensive and defensive substantial economic costs. At the same time, damage operations using automated systems, which, in turn, are assessment and development of counteractions are significantly potential targets of cyberattacks, complicated due to the “intangibility” of ICTs and wide range of sources of possible malicious technologies, including state • Electronic warfare, being military operations using and non-state actors, and single hackers. All of these factors electromagnetic and directed energy to control the enemy. increase the level of uncertainty and instability. Therefore, one These include three units: electronic attack, electronic defense of the most crucial and relevant threats related to ICT in the and support for electronic warfare, field of international security appears to be the decrease in the • Military means to facilitate information operations, such level of strategic stability. as those including strategic communications, interventions in cyberspace and space, military support of information, intelligence, joint operations of the electromagnetic spectrum, etc. [5]. The problems associated with these opportunities can be attributed to various elements of the military organization and infrastructure. However, the most important of them is certainly the group of ICT threats in the field of nuclear weapons (Fig. 1). Today there are different opinions regarding the likelihood and consequences of the harmful effects of ICTs on the system of command and control of nuclear weapons, from complete denial to arguments for a sharp increase in such probability. However, both in general science and in military strategy, in particular, one needs to consider the worst-case Fig. 1. Strategic nuclear weapons: some ICT vulnerabilities and potential scenarios. Therefore, this problem should be in the focus of consequences. attention of scientists and practitioners, primarily from the states with the nuclear weapons. However, one does not need to fundamentally change the base principles of international governance. ICT threats exacerbate, complicate, deepen, 66 III. THE EFFECT OF INFORMATIONAL AND Therefore, on a professional level, one should speak not COMMUNICATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES ON THE LEVEL OF strategic stability “maintenance” and its “consolidation”, but STRATEGIC STABILITY about the need to ensure strategic stability, the need to develop new approaches to assess the level of strategic stability based Today, the problems of strategic stability become a main on the existing experience. This is about the development of topic of international relations once again. This is primarily general qualitative, and most importantly, quantitative metrics because of the gradual destruction of the regime associated of this level. Therefore, one has to agree on common with limited and reduced strategic missile and nuclear evaluation criteria. Initiated by the US, the process of weapons, after the withdrawal of the US from the Anti-Ballistic discussing such criteria was ceased at the RF-USA bilateral Missile Treaty (ABM Treaty), the Intermediate-Range Nuclear level during 1990s. This has resulted into a global problem, Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) and in the absence of negotiations because the decrease in the level of strategic stability below the on the limitation and reduction of nuclear weapons at the end required and sufficient threshold is extremely dangerous for all of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-3, New states with no exceptions. Therefore, all countries over the START) [9]. Another factor is the accelerated development of world seem to be interested in ensuring such level. However, ICTs that have a global impact on military and political the responsibilities of different states appear to be different, relations in the 21st century. Is it possible to provide the with the nuclear-weapon states still bearing the greatest required and sufficient level of strategic stability in the modern responsibility. What are the new emerged characteristics of the conditions of the new technological revolution? Or will the system, within which it is vital to provide the required and instability, including global and strategic one, become a new sufficient level of stability? trend? Currently, this situation can be considered as a crisis. Moreover, today one considers two approaches or even a  Increase in the number of local wars and armed conflicts, split between supporters of the classical view on strategic and more significant effect of ICTs on their outbreak and stability being developed during the bipolarity when this term waging. was born, and supporters of a completely new view on  Change in the system of international relations after challenges and ways to ensure strategic stability in modern periods of bipolarity and monopolarity, led by the United conditions. Probably the truth is somewhere in between. It States. This is primarily due to changes in the military and would be a mistake to abandon the experience of strategic -strategic relations between Russia and the United States, stability maintenance accumulated during the Cold War, which as well as the emergence of a new global center of power helped to avoid a large-scale war in conditions of deep being– China, which is not involved in the nuclear confrontation extended for decades. At the same time, one has disarmament process. to take into account modern political and technological fundamental changes. Thus, during the bipolarity period, the  Gradual destruction of the regime of limitation and concept of “strategic stability” applied to nuclear-weapon reduction of strategic arms after the withdrawal of the US states was defined as the state of their relationship, in which from the ABM Treaty, the INF Treaty and in the absence the incentives to launch the first nuclear strike are removed of negotiations on the restriction and reduction of nuclear [10]. As nuclear weapons continue to exist and their destructive weapons at the end of the New START [12]. capabilities are constantly being improved, this understanding  Nuclear-missile multipolarity, which is associated with of strategic stability is still relevant today, similarly to the increase in the number of states with nuclear missile period of Cold War when this view was formed. However, the weapons, as well as with increase in probability of their situation has become much more complicated over the past subsequent proliferation. three decades, and the ideas about the methods and mechanisms to prevent nuclear war developed during the  Trends of doctrinal changes in the nuclear-weapon states, bipolarity, have ceased to reflect modern geopolitical realities which are formally designed to consolidate deterrence but and the level of technological development. These significant in fact weaken a threshold of nuclear weapons use, changes in international military and political relations require increasing the chances of limited nuclear wars. taking into account not only the nuclear component of this concept but also other indicators and characteristics, while  US large-scale missile defense system, which significantly preserving the traditional essence at the same time. In addition, changes the balance of strategic forces and increases the today one does not consider two global poles of confrontation level of uncertainty in strategic planning [13]. examined during the bipolarity period, but observes an increase  Increasing role and power of non-nuclear (precision and in the number of entities affecting the strategic stability level. smart) types of weapons in strategic planning, which Therefore, it is necessary to assess the capabilities and create a theoretical threat of a disarming strike against characteristics of the politico-military system. strategic nuclear forces [14]. The development of such The strategic stability of the politico-military system is the weapons significantly complicates the global strategic state of the peace (absence of a large-scale war) within the environment and decision-making process in crisis framework of this system, which is maintained even in response situations. to constantly acting disturbances (destabilizing factors) for a  Deployment of nuclear and non-nuclear weapons on the certain (given) period of time [11]. same platforms, which may result in the launch of ballistic or cruise missiles with conventional weapons 67 being mistakenly considered by the opponent as use of  Reduction of “conflict escalation staircase”, associated nuclear weapons. with an increased likelihood of ICT attacks on elements of the military nuclear missile infrastructure.  Appearance of low-yield nuclear weapons, the presence of which reduces the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons and, therefore, increases the likelihood of escalation of armed conflict into a nuclear war [15].  Development of the latest ICT-based anti-satellite arsenal used to affect the operations of enemy satellites, including elements of the Ballistic Missile Early Warning System (BMEWS), and destroy them using anti-satellite systems located on the Earth. At the same time, the fundamental vulnerability of spacecraft for cyber attacks is primarily due to the need to use communication channels with the Earth in the process of satellite operations. At present, this seems to be one of the most serious threats to strategic stability. In addition, cyber assets can affect the efficiency of satellites within Combat operations system in common information space, being actively improved in military developed states. The technological basis of the concept of Combat operations in the common information space is Fig. 3. Stages of warfare with complex use of ICTs. the aggregation of all armed forces elements in the single computer network. Thus, each of the elements of this During the development of criteria for evaluation of the network can also be exposed to cyber attacks. level of strategical stability and corresponding specific approaches to ensure it, one should take into account both  Militarization of outer space associated with the expansion general characteristics applicable to any historical period and of military space projects in some nuclear-weapon states. features of the current state. The accelerated development of Thus, the main factors of the global impact of ICT on ICTs is currently one of such exceptional features. Analysis strategic stability are: confirms that all factors, which destabilize the modern system of strategic stability, are nowadays associated with the  Use of ICTs for destructive politico-military purposes; development of ICTs. Therefore, it seems to be advantageous to emphasize the corresponding ICT threats as a separate  Temptation to win a large-scale war, associated with the destabilizing factor. Moreover, today many other factors are explosive development of technologies that encourage to aggravated by the use of ICTs for destructive purposes, the acquire strategic advantages; militarization of peaceful information technologies, and the  Tendency to blur the borders between peaceful state of ease, suddenness and speed associated with both information countries and their transition to the state of war, along technology and information-psychological weapons. with blurring the line between defense and attack in military and nuclear planning; IV. CONCLUSIONS  Changes in logic of global confrontation, with the 1. The most dangerous ICT-threats to international integrated use of non-military methods based on security are: use of information and cyber weapons malicious ICTs leading to the goals of war being achieved for military and political purposes to perform hostile even without an armed conflict (Fig. 2, 3); actions and acts of aggression; destructive cyber impact on the elements of Critical National Infrastructure; interference in domestic affairs of sovereign state, violation of social stability, initiating interethnic and international conflict through ICTs. These dangers poses a threat to global security, and therefore requires the search for additional mechanisms of international governance. 2. Situation in the field of strategic stability can be assessed as a crisis. Given the gradual destruction of the regime of limitation and reduction of strategic weapons and the absence of negotiations on the limitation and reduction of nuclear weapons, the existing mechanisms of international governance in this area are not enough. Fig. 2. Stages of classical warfare without the complex use of ICTs. 3. In the context of ensuring strategic stability, the security of missile and nuclear weapons requires 68 special attention. All nuclear states are upgrading In parallel, work on the establishment of control over nuclear systems, seeking to introduce new computer ICT weapons will be advantageous, which could technologies. More and more components of the include: military nuclear infrastructure, from warheads and their delivery systems to control and guidance • Ban on ICT attacks on specific objects, primarily systems as well as command and control systems of in the military sphere (statements, agreements, strategic nuclear forces, depend on sophisticated treaties); software, which makes them potential targets for ICT • Limitations and/or abandonment of offensive attacks. ICT opportunities; 4. The particular attention is required for strategic • Steps to control ICT weapons proliferation; weapons defense, ballistic missile early warning system, air defense and missile defense systems, and • International standards on means and methods to nuclear weapons command and control. 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