The article deals with the problem of decision-making in terms of risk and conflict situations in the presence of terminal restrictions on the time of crisis resolution in the structure of managing a complex system. The analysis of the concepts and principles of terminal logic, which are used to describe the thinking process of the operator when high speed is needed to make decisions and determine the image of the situation, risk indicators, factors of active influence on the operation of the technogenic system. With the insufficient pace of decision-making by the operator the risk of accidents increases.
Experimental situations that arise in technogenic systems due to the active factors of influence on their resource management, information structures require rapid decisions by the operator. Such a study causes mental and intellectual tension in the operational and command staff, acting as an intellectual agent, who makes targeted decisions about the management of the elements of the objects and the technogenic system in general in terms of risk in the process of eliminating threats and preserving the life of the population and staff.
An important element of the intellectual behavior of operational staff is his mental and intelligent stability for the duration of the operational management of a system or object during emergency management. These problems are relevant in terms of ensuring the functional stability of the systems for both command and control groups. To ensure effective decision-making, the following personal characteristics are required to be taken in an emergency response high level of intelligence, psychological and physiological resilience, psychological and physiological resilience in stress situaCopyright © 2020 for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative Commons
tions, ability to adapt effectively in changing situations; ability to learn and to summarize knowledge and experience; purposefulness and determination in achieving the stated goal, ability for internal goal orientation and adaptation.
The technogenic environment model contains the following components in the knowledge base information about changes in environmental elements and relationships between objects that are characteristic of this class of problems, and information about possible perturbations and models of influence.
Information that is in the model of a problematic energy-active environment is reflected through the structure of the technogenic system, and its process of operation and is evaluated by the conscious “I- system” of the operator, which is necessary for the construction of appropriate procedures and decisions during emergencies. If only heuristic decision-making procedures are used to complicate situations, then such conditions are no longer sufficient for action planning.
The use of logic to describe events and decision-making processes provides the constructiveness of computational procedures and processes for the formation of patterns of situations and statements about them, as well as sequential action scenarios. But if only heuristic decision-making procedures are used at this stage, then in complicated situations they may not be sufficient to plan adequate actions.
Problem and research methods. The problem of human operator activity in complex technological systems and emergencies in the conditions of a challenge has been investigated by many scientists. Despite the active interest in this type of human activity in the field of technological and information development of society, the problem of optimization of training and work of human operator in complex hierarchical technogenic systems and the success of its functioning during the assessment of crisis and risk situations of boundary states of objects remains unsolved, management that provides an effective procedure for emergency response over the required time interval, which is an urgent problem at present a new stage of production activation.
Development of information technology for the training of operational personnel for work in emergency situations using the general theory of systems, system analysis, methods of modeling of energy-active processes, methods of terminal logic, information technologies for selection and processing of data taking into account the individual, and cognitive abilities of operational staff is a topical scientific issue.
The aim of study – development and justification of the method of integration of logical procedures and information technologies with the use of cognitive models of the decision-making process in the case of emergencies in technogenic structures with the limitation time for management actions.
Object of researching – process of intellectual processing of data by the cognitive system of operator-management at limitation of term of execution of decisions.
Subject of research – models, methods of information technologies of situation estimation by the cognitive system of the operator taking into account intellectual and temporal characteristics in the process of management logical methods of structure analysis for the construction of applied theories are considered.
Analysis of literary resources
In work [
In monograph [
In works [
In works [
In works [
Article [
Analysis of the problem of intellectual activity (managers) of
operators in the face of threats
Analysis of literary sources showed that today powerful tools have been created for
management activity, mathematical and systematic apparatus for solving problems of
managing complex objects has been developed and theoretically grounded [
Analysis of the problem of occurence of emergency and boundary situations in
technogenic structures and the choice of strategies for managing energy-active
systems in critical production situations showed that the problematic creation of effective
methods of synthesis of strategies for conflict resolution consecrated a large number
of works that consider certain aspects and components: functioning of hierarchical
goal-oriented systems with a certain level of integration of technological processes
with coordinated management; operational management at different levels of
integration, in accordance with requirements for providing technological processes on the
basis of clear data; object; inter-level conflicts; human resources management
according to the requirements of production technologies and functional management based
on ability testing. But, at the same time, these methods do not take into account the
peculiarities of the cognitive sphere of the individual for managing energy-active
systems in critical production situations showed that the problematic creation of
effective methods of synthesis of strategies for conflict resolution consecrated a large
number of works that consider certain aspects and components: functioning of
hierarchical goal-oriented systems with a certain level of integration of technological
processes with coordinated management; operational management at different levels of
integration, in accordance with requirements for providing technological processes on
the basis of clear data; object; inter-level conflicts; human resources management
according to the requirements of production technologies and functional management
based on ability testing. But, at the same time, these methods do not take into account
the peculiarities of the cognitive sphere of the individual [
In accordance with the concept of strategic management, a balance of mutual requirements should be fulfilled, which would ensure the conflict-free functioning of the automatic control system (figure 1):
– the higher hierarchy provides staff with an adequate level of social security, prospective growth and advanced training;
– executive staff perform their duties to ensure the effective functioning of the hierarchical structure in accordance with regulatory strategies.
The crises and risks that arise in such systems are of the offensive nature of external active systems that would like to capture positions at the hierarchy nodes. With adequate training, such attacks are not possible except through deliberate interference with the system (figure 1).
The problem of developing conflict management strategies has a complex structure
that encompasses the components that form the basis of decision-making rules aimed
at eliminating threats in technogenic topics: systemic(object structure, control
systems, enforcement mechanisms, resource transportation and management systems);
system-target(methods of formation, representation of the purpose in the target space
of the management system and the means of its implementation); information
(selection and processing of data about the state of the object, their evaluation, reliability,
methods of formation and presentation of situations, their recognition, classification,
interpretation); cognitive(knowledge component of management), logic-mathematical
method of describing the the tactics of movement in the field of goal representation in
the target space, logical-structural methods of decision-making on object
management(management processors, their software and mathematical support of
computational processes for all levels of the structure of the hierarchy; system dynamics to
describe possible changes in the state of an object as a result of the use of selected
strategies, risk assessment after their use [
Analysis of methods of emergency response in technogenic energy-active systems
was conducted, which showed that prevention of technogenic emergencies is
extremely important and at the same time difficult. The operation in the territory of our
country of numerous high-risk objects mainly in areas with high population density
dramatically increases the risk of major man-made disasters, complicates the
implementation of rapid response and implementation of measures to eliminate the
consequences of natural and man-made emergencies [
Ukraine`s annual casualties are measured by hundreds of human casualties, millions of damage and irreparable damage to the environment.
The state of technogenic safety and dynamics of emergencies in recent years testifies to the increasing danger of threats to the life of the population, the economy and the environment.
The primary role in solving the problems of effective response to emergencies is played by the state policy in the field of civil protection, which is actively implemented in the state through unconditional implementation of the laws of Ukraine, decrees of the President and similar regulations of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and other normative documents.
Experience shows that only where emergencies are confronted with a clear organisation, clear, thoughtful measures of specialized rescue units, the use of advanced technologies and modern emergency equipment, coordinated and skilled actions of the services of the region and the population, which knows how to behave in extreme situations, can be achieved in arrogance in the protection of human life and health and preservation of property. 3
Logic-cognitive procedures for the formation of managerial decisions
Processes of solving problems and problems are the basis of the subconscious and conscious components of intellectual activity, and therefore it is important to formulate the concept of identifying mechanisms of mental(intellectual) activity of a person (figure 2).
Requirements l a u t c e ll e t n i lfo ity
v ode itca m e v iit n g o C
characteristics ІАО — Intellectual agent, operator ІАL — Intellectual agent, liquidator
База сформованих у навчальних планах знань
ПRi …….
Fi
A IRS
ІСС
Accordingly, the development of an information concept for logical-cognitive models of intellectual activity in the context of risk is an important component of the creation of tests to assess the professional suitability of operational staff.
A functional system acts as a set of elements and processes in it with the
appropriate organizational structure and strategy of behavior, which causes the appearance of
the target result in solving problems and problems of a certain class [
Basis elements and characteristic properties of a person-intellectual agent (ІA) in
decision-making: invariance of the structure of the system in the process of functioning;
afferent synthesis as a generalization of information flows; goal-orientation in the
process of structuring a task; problem-solving solutions; model of action results (action
acceptor) in evaluating the process of solving the problem; feedback and control of local
results and actions at the level of consciousness [
Construction of hierarchical models of the system is to justify the multi-level organization of the structure of the detection of resource flows, information channels for the selection of data transmission and management commands at each level (strategy) and between the levels of the hierarchy of identifying successive stages of formation and implementation of strategic management strategies (figure 3).
An important feature of hierarchical systems are the factors influencing the
targeting during the terminal time of management cycles of management structures:
different interests of levels of hierarchy leading to conflicts, mismatch of professional
training of decision-making staff at other levels through incorrect strategies and low level
of knowledge; vertical subordination of levels to form strategies [
DT
OC
FE
Ag ІВС
F1……..Fn A 2 3 4 5 6 7
ІА
1
END
CCC
ІА SC
Logical-cognitive temporal processing of data by the operative employee in the process of assessment of the situation in the technogenic systems is considered on figure 4.
t1 τˆ1sit τˆ2sit τˆ3sit τˆ4sit τˆ5sit τˆ6sit
t2
T2′ T ′′ 2 t3 T3
t4
TТi
T4′
〈Operations〉 tn ТП1 ТП 2 ТП 3 ТП 4 ТП 5 ТП n
Vt1 > Vt2 Vt2 > Vtn
Vtn Vt4 < Vtn Vt5 < Vt4 Vtn – min 〈Stress〉
According to the concept of intellectual data processing by the cognitive system of
the operator in the mode of temporal reality, a functional and structural scheme of the
cognitive model of data processing on the state and dynamics of the energy-active
system has been developed (figure 5) [
According to the strategies, a logic of decision-making is formed based on an
assessment of the situation from the flows of data obtained from IPS-APCS, is built as a
rule [
If you have as a parcel of judgment, then the truth of a categorical statement can be proved on the basis of a purely conditional conclusion according to the rules: 2) ∏U+K : A ⇒AB⇒,BC⇒ C ; ∏U−K : A ⇒ BB,A ⇒ B.
D Sit OУti t n e m e g a n a m e v i t a r e p o e h tf o r o s s e c o r p o r u e
N
Risk analysis {Situ} α risk iitkngnh )(snoVim fo i
s e i
c ac e p d e g
n th i
k g a in m ag n an eh M w
S0 S0 S0в1 S0в2 ЕЕ RAН
…………………………..
F y g o l o i s y h P Fij θ s g n i l e e F
Fig. 5. Functional and structural diagram of a cognitive model of intellectual processing of temporal reality data by an operative worker of APCS. ICS — information-computing system; Sit — operative situation; OM — object of management; RAH — rank situations; Sn — system states; EE — emergency event; ЕЕ — an extraordinary event
The scheme of the affirmative-negative mode of the separate-categorical output
follows from the rule (clauses 3–6), which on the basis of the data flows at a certain
point of time ti during the terminal time {τ к } is the basis for drawing a conclusion
about the situation {∀ti im=i , ∃τ кi } , according to concept [
В 3) Integration of terminal situation data ∏ +SV :
6) ∏U+K : А ⇒АВ⇒,ВС⇒ С ; ( АF ⇒ SitB) ∧ ( ВF ⇒ SitC ) ⇒ ( АF ⇒ SitC ) . If factor А leads to the situation В, then if case А, happen, situation В will change: If factor АF causes the situation Sit B , and from situation Sit B happens situation SitC under the influence ВF , then factor АF causes Sit C .
− 7) ∏U−K : А ⇒ ВВ,А ⇒ В : ААF →→−SSitiBtB , then the state of the object does not change because АF does not change its state of the object. 4
Temporal reality in the formation of management decisions
by the operator under risk conditions
In times of crisis and pre-emergency situations occurring in technogenic systems
during failure of models of functioning of energy-active units, it is necessary to take into
account both the time cycles of data processing and the norms of time for performing
emergency actions when making decisions. Cognitive disorientation in the estimation
of the time intervals can lead to the fact that management and coordination actions
will not be able to prevent an emergency situation if the operational management
team is disoriented in time (figure 6). The system APCS has a block of automatic
management and data processing, and the mode correction is performed by an
operative employee, it is necessary to terminate the terminal condition at the time of
decision making and situation assessment [
And the situation itself is that the operative employee, within the allotted time, assesses the possible threat and promptly takes precautionary measures: time allowed; {Ts5} – time to correct decision-making strategies in the face of threats; {τ cd Tr1 < Tr2 < Tr3 < Tr4}; {Tr4 ≤ Ts5 ≤τ ik },{Tki ≤τ ik },
where {Tri } — cycles of data processing for a minimum
τ ik — maximum interval of data processing cycle and automated decision-making when
decisions are made in pairs (PWMD-APCS); {Tki } — cognitive time of an operative
employee in the management team according to the classification he/she received in the
APCS maintenance instructions. and during which time he/she is required to evaluate the
situation, make a decision and perform a managerial or anti-emergency action [
AP
Perturbation
FZi .........FZn Object of control
AA
AL Sensor co-complex
ДЖZ 2
Algorithmic processing of data flows and situation images Assessing the attributes and content of the data in the event scenario 3 Interpretation of the systemic situations Risk assessment 4 5
Database and knowledge
Strategic analysis, purpose, monitoring tasks ( Stab U / Ci) {Tik }
Generator of data processing cycles
Operational management team 1 2 6 Fig. 6. Block diagram of information technology of data collection and their intellectual and systematic interpretation in the hierarchy of monitoring system structure: {OPR} — sources of risk in the facility; {Fzi} — external influencers; block 1. {AP, AA, AL} — the system of active, passive, laser sensors for data acquisition, necessary for assessing the state of active objects; block 2. processing of sensory data obtained during the control process of ICS; block 3. intelligent processing of data and images of dynamic situations; block 4. interpretation of situations by operating personnel displayed on the control panel and multimedia system; block 5. intelligent risk assessment system when changing modes; block 6. an orderly database and knowledge; block 7. integrated intelligent systems of strategic analysis (DSS); Kr , Ku — correction of models and management actions to overcome crisis and extreme situations in manmade situations; DKMS — database and knowledge management system
The structure of situations and events is analysed [
Enter: 1) (TR) — terminal structure; 2) T = {tin=1} — time set; 3) R — binary relation on Т; 4) S — interpretation of knowledge about the state of the control object; 5) f : T → S — interpretation of the state of knowledge in the process of functional transformations; 6) Fi = Ff (t)
— a set of basic functional transformations; 7) f (t ) =f (t′) ≡ (t ≠ t′) — equivalence of knowledge during transformations; 8) Rtt′ : Ft → Ft′ — ratio of correct formulas that represent through {Fi } ; 9) g — operational employee [«always will be» gA ∈ Ft′ ↔ A ∈ F ′]t — event confirmation;
10) Н — operational employee [«always was» HA ∈ Ft′ ↔ A ∈ Ft′] — confirmation in the past; 11) S : E → {0,1} ↔ {Ft′}t ∈ T 12) ∀f ∀t ∈ T ( M ⊂ Ff′(t) → A ∈ Ff′(t) ) ( M =A) — automatic interpretation on the interval of time T ⊂ Tm .
Properties of terminal logics, which are the basis for constructing the rules of output in the procedures of formation and decision-making.
If A ∈ Ft′ , t ∈ T , tA — indexed set, then М — set on logic TR , for which we have — automatic interpretation of situation knowledge; characteristic features of event binding t ∈ T : 1. t A ∈ M → tA ∉ M ; 3. t ( A ⊃ B ) ∈ M → t A ∈ M ∨ tB ∈ M ; 5. tgA ∈ M → t′A ∈ M , ∀t′ Rtt′; 7. t gA ∈ M → t′A ∈ M , ∃t Rtt′; 2. t A ∈ M → tA ∈ M ; 4. t ( A ⊃ B) ∈ M → tA, tB ∈ M , ∀t′ Rtt′; 6. tH ∈ M → t′A ∈ M , ∀t′ Rtt′; 8. t HA ∈ M → t′ A ∈ M , ∃t′ Rt′t; 9. tA ∈ M → ∃t′A ∈ Ft′ , where t ∈ T — time set; TR — terminal structure of events in time; g, H — time conversion operators; ( , →) — operations; R — operator on the time axis.
On the set of indexed formulas N3 by a carrier Т (N) we have the following rules of inference and number ratio А — Т which underlies the logic of action at the time when the strategies of crisis management are formed: П1 ) t tA A ttg′AA t′ ∈ T ( N ) , Rtt′ t − → − t′ – (direct transition);
t ( A ⊃ B ) tHA t′ t′ П2 ) t A / tB t′A t′ ∈ T ( N ) , Rtt′ − ← − – (reverse); t ( A ⊃ B) t gA tA, t B t′ gA
t t′ t′ ∉ T ( N ) , Rtt′ − → − – (statement); t′A
The logic of systemic anti-crisis solutions in the elimination of threats is the basis for developing strategies and contingency plans.
П4 ) tt HgAA tt′HAA t′ ∈ T ( N ) , Rt′t t − ← − t′ – (denial).
Dependent of the branches of output on the decision tree (∃t ∈ ¬A ∈ T ) ⇒ tA , if (t ∼ A) is included in the branch, describes the course of events according to the route in the decision tree.
Let TR — A closed table for the construction of action plans, then based on the decision tree is built a specific route of implementation of operational actions in accordance with the spatial and temporal structure of the technogenic system and the emergency object. According to (∀t ∈ T , (tA1...tAn , t B)) we have if T ′ — set of indices of a branch, R′ ⊂ R′′ then,
( A1...An , → B) ⇒ (tA1...tAn , t B) ⇒ ({A1...An B} ∈ Ft′) , so ( A1...An = B) we output from the available values about the object.
In the procedures of output on the thermal (time) axis, the definition of temporal
operators is based on the statement: let us have “always be A” — unknown, if there is
an unknown future element A, then
t t′
gA ∈ Ft2 ↔ A ∈ Ft2 , ∀t′ Rtt′ − → − (temporal connection) . [
Risk of management strategies Modern production is a complex integrated man-machine controlled systems management strategies that are integrated into the structure of APCS and the base of knowledge and professional skills of the human operator.
In the hierarchy of the system of the human operator are entrusted with the
following tasks: control of the dynamic state; formation of coordination actions to support
the targeted functioning of the system; management and regulation of lecture-logical
processes in normal modes and emergencies [
Purposeful activity of the operator is based on information technology of data
processing and a cognitive model of formation of situational decisions in accordance with
the cognitive functional structure of purposeful activity of the operator (figure 7) [
Result Associative control models
Object Action
Result
Active resources Commands
Typical models Probabilistic action programs in short-term memory of the
neurosystem Ontogenetic memory
Genetic memory
Probable structure of the environment Activation of the
environment Neuroprocessor
Functional structure of the psychophysiological state of the
operator ∆ε Subconscious component of “I-system”
Leading motivation of
operator ІAMS Operator orientation
Core of “I-system” ∆ε
Neuroprocessor
Conscious component of “Isystem”
Data base CCm
I
S SmC
Fig. 7. Cognitive functional structure of purposeful operator activity: CCm — conscious component of memory “I — system”. SmC — subconscious memory component; (C-S) — core of the cognitive memory management system; ІAMS — іntellectual automatic management system
It also reflects the stages of deliberate action to eliminate emergencies. Taking into account the scheme of forming a logical-cognitive model of perception of the structure and content of the object on the basis of operational data plans and teams of actions are taken, which take into account the temporal characteristics of the person during the perception of the situation and take actions to eliminate emergency situations. 6
Experiments, Results & Discussions Based on the results of the research, a control experiment to verify the obtained theoretical conclusions was conducted.
The representative sample size was 100 people: 50 in the experimental and 50 in the control groups and was selected from among cadets and students whose future professional activities involve work in extreme and stressful conditions.
The study of the two groups, both in the formative and in the ascertaining stages of the experiment, was carried out using the same set of specially selected psychodiagnostic techniques, which covered various aspects of personality activities (selfregulation, motivation, thinking, volitional sphere, etc.).
Here are some of them.
1. Methodology of style of self-regulation of behavior of V. Morosanov (SSBM) [
Comparing the indicators of the study before and after training to activate cognitive
abilities, positive changes in the style of self-regulation of behavior in the formative
group compared with the control can be seen (figure 8). Such changes occurred in
most parameters (scales): planning, modeling, programming, evaluation of results,
independence. In other turn, this contributes to the development of individual
selfregulation of the individual and his profile, which is extremely important in working
with a high degree of risk, scattered information, time lag and high cost of error.
a)
b)
2. "Numerical series", a study of analytical thinking [
Comparing the general indicators of thinking processes and mental abilities in the formative and control group (figure 9) before and after training to activate cognitive abilities, a positive increase in success in performing stimulus tasks for cadets and students from the formative group can be noticed. Considering also the fact that at the ascertaining stage of the research a slightly lower results among the respondents of the formation group were received, but after training, the general results in the formation group not only reached the level of control, but also slightly exceeded them.
The received results of psychodiagnostic study showed that, after six months of training to enhance cognitive abilities with the help of developed information technology, cadets and students from the formation group not only aligned in indicators with the parallel control group, but also surpassed them in a number of professionally significant indicators: purposefulness, communication, confidence, responsibility, stress resistance, increasing the level of general indicators of thought processes. 7
Conclusion Based on the peculiarities of individual perception of time intervals, the logic-system procedure and the process of solving the tasks of managing the final step of action in terminal time are considered. The use of such an approach allowed to substantiate the logical aspects of forming a description of the process of solving problems by the operator in different conditions of his/her professional activity.
By taking into account the immanent temporal layer of the individual during the preparation of operational personnel for the activity that involves making operational decisions in crisis conditions of functioning of technogenic systems, we will ensure an adequate assessment of the system status and taking timely measures to eliminate threats and accidents in high-energy hierarchical systems.