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<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>Moscow, Russian, April</journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Description for Packet Switch</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Vitaliy S. Zaitcev</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">6</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Konstantin E. Samouylov</string-name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">4</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Andrey K. Levakov</string-name>
          <email>levakov1966@list.ru</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">3</xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <string-name>Nikolai A. Sokolov</string-name>
          <email>nicksokolov@hotmail.com</email>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff0">0</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">5</xref>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>193232</institution>
          ,
          <country country="RU">Russia</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff1">
          <label>1</label>
          <institution>196128</institution>
          ,
          <country country="RU">Russia</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2">
          <label>2</label>
          <institution>22km</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>108811, Moscow</addr-line>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff3">
          <label>3</label>
          <institution>Center Macro-regional Branch (Center MRF) of PJSC Rostelecom</institution>
          , “
          <addr-line>Comcity”, household 6, build. 1, Kievskoe shosse</addr-line>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff4">
          <label>4</label>
          <institution>Peoples' Friendship University of Russia Mikluho-Maklaya St.</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>6, Moscow, 117198</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="RU">Russia</country>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff5">
          <label>5</label>
          <institution>Saint-Petersburg Branch of Central Science Research Telecommunication Institute</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>11, Warshavskaya, St. Petersburg</addr-line>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff6">
          <label>6</label>
          <institution>The Bonch-Bruevich Saint-Petersburg State University of Telecommunications</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>22/1 Prospect Bolshevikov, St. Petersburg</addr-line>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date>
        <year>2020</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>1</volume>
      <fpage>3</fpage>
      <lpage>17</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>The arrival process description is important problem for analysis of the packet switches that can be considered as queueing systems. Such queueing systems are the appropriate models for the study of the stochastic characteristics. The accuracy of the results of the model study is largely determined by the correctness of the description of the arrival process. This paper proposes a method to solve the problem of choosing a distribution type to describe arrival process at the teletrafic system input. The authors introduce a criterion for choosing the distribution type based on the error minimization in the estimates of the mean value and coeficient of variation in the delay times in the teletrafic system. Sometimes measurement results characterizing the arrival process are available. In this case, the correctness of the proposed distribution is also checked using the goodness-of-fit test. The paper provides case studies on how the proposed method can be applied to the process of choosing the distribution type in question.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>goodness-of-fit test</kwd>
        <kwd>relative error</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>-</title>
      <p>
        Statement
The stated problem can be considered a special case of estimating the distance between
functions [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ]. In the teletrafic theory, this problem has some peculiarities. In this article, an entity
that should be serviced by the queueing system is called a request. Typical example of the
request is IP packet that is processed by a packet switch. For systems with queues [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2 ref3">2, 3</xref>
        ], the
reliable information about the requests arrival interval distribution at the input of the object
nEvelop-O
      </p>
      <p>CEUR
Workshop
Proceedings
htp:/ceur-ws.org
IS N1613-073</p>
      <p>CEUR Workshop Proceedings (CEUR-WS.org)
Workshop on information technology and scientific computing in the framework of the X International Conference
under study is normally obtained based on measurements of packet trafic. If measuring is not
possible, the proposed hypothesis should be thoroughly reasoned.</p>
      <p>
        Based on measurements, step function  () is formed, for which an interval of constant time
 is usually selected on the abscissa axis. In some cases, function () can be convenient to use
if the initial distribution replacement simplifies the further model analysis. Function () is
usually chosen from a set of known random value distributions [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        For the analysis of most teletrafic models, it is suficient to know the first and second
moments of the request delay time in the system —  (1) and  (2). Interestingly, most of the
known relations [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2 ref3">2, 3</xref>
        ] rely on delay time coeficient of variation   instead of the second moment.
That’s why the proximity of values  (1) and   to the values obtained using measurements of
function  () determines whether distribution  () has been chosen appropriately. Therefore,
relative errors in evaluating values  (1) and   denoted below as  1 and  2, respectively, should
not exceed the predefined thresholds.
      </p>
      <p>
        We can choose value  for function  () based on the considerations given in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">5</xref>
        ]. Values of
function () at points that are multiples of  are known. Figure 1 shows distribution functions
 () and () up to value 8 on the abscissa axis. For example, parameter  3 defines the diference
between two distributions at point 3 . In this example, we observe the maximum diference
between functions  () and () at point 8 .
      </p>
      <p>1</p>
      <p>F(t), A(t)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8</p>
      <p>
        The proximity of functions  () and () is normally measured by checking if they belong to
the same distribution class using an appropriate goodness-of-fit test [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ]. This approach does
not allow us to make assertions about the values of errors in evaluating the characteristics at
the teletrafic system output.
      </p>
      <p>Figure 2 shows the simplest model of a teletrafic system as a so-called “black box”. Function
() represents the distribution of the request processing times in the teletrafic system. In
other words, it defines the set of operations on functions  () or () . Two distributions at the
model output are of practical interest: request delay time () and time interval () at which
the processed requests leave the teletrafic system.</p>
      <p>F(t)
F(t)
or
A(t)</p>
      <p>BB((tt))</p>
      <p>S(t)
and
D(t)</p>
      <p>
        This paper only covers distribution () . Moreover, the analysis of function () is limited to
estimating values  (1) and   .
2. Choosing Distribution Based on Measurements
Let us assume that the measurements were made correctly and we obtained step function  ()
with increment   at point  . Some increments can evaluate to zero. Generally, index  varies
from zero to  , that is, for  ≥  , condition  () ≡ 1 is true. It is convenient to represent function
 () as the Laplace-Stieltjes transform [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref7">7</xref>
        ] denoted as () .
      </p>
      <p>
        The first and second moments of the distribution,  (1) and  (2), are determined according to
the corresponding rules by diferentiation of function () . Standard deviation   and coeficient
of variation   are calculated based on values  (1) and  (2) [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        Approximating distribution () is normally chosen using the least squares method [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref8">8</xref>
        ]. In
some cases, it is reasonable to use the weighted least squares method [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">9</xref>
        ]. In this case, normally,
the following inequalities are true:  (1) ≠  (1),  (2) ≠  (2),   ≠   and   ≠   . These
inequalities introduce additional errors in the evaluation of characteristics  (1) and   .
      </p>
      <p>
        A methodological approach based on the following operations can help us minimize these
errors:
• First, the most appropriate type of two-parameter distribution () is selected using a
suitable goodness-of-fit test [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ].
• Then, we determine such parameters of distribution () , for which equations  (1) =  (1)
and   =   (or   =   if it simplifies the calculations) are true.
      </p>
      <p>
        So, the distribution parameters are calculated by solving a system of two equations.
3. Choosing Distribution Using Goodness-of-Fit Test
Pearson’s chi-squared test [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref6">6</xref>
        ], also known as  2, is often used to test the hypothesis that the
sample belongs to the theoretical distribution () . Some researchers prefer the
KolmogorovSmirnov test for this purpose [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10">10</xref>
        ]. Some other tests may also be chosen.
      </p>
      <p>
        A goodness-of-fit test is an important step in solving the stated problem, which should be
described in terms of “necessity and suficiency” [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref11">11</xref>
        ]. Replacing function  () with distribution
() should be interpreted as a necessity but cannot be considered suficient. Indeed,
goodnessof-fit tests cannot provide numerical estimates of errors that occur when further operations
are performed on distribution () . Alternatively, if function  () and distribution () are not
close to each other [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ], an acceptable diference in characteristics  (1) and   can be unstable
within the load range under study. Besides, this narrows the application scope of the proposed
method for choosing distribution () .
      </p>
      <p>However, we cannot insist that the condition, which was hereinafter treated as necessary, is
indispensable. When solving some specific tasks, the mentioned tests may indicate that the
chosen hypothesis is false while the evaluation accuracy of characteristics  (1) and   can be
acceptable. A simple example, in which two moments are the same while distribution functions
difer significantly, will be given below in this paper. Therefore, it appears that the obtained
results will be still more valuable if we use proven laws of mathematical statistics.
4. Proposed Method for Choosing Distribution
Measuring trafic multiple times at diferent packet switches shows that function
 () belongs
to a class of distributions that are defined on a limited interval. They are denoted with the
lower index “ ” (the first letter in word “limited”). The lower index “  ” (the first letter in word
“unlimited”) is used to denote distributions that take possible values along the entire positive
semiaxis. The applied approximations   () introduce an error, which is usually very dificult
to evaluate. Therefore, it is appropriate to look for an approximation to function  () in the
  () class.</p>
      <p>
        A particular interest in the functions of the   () class is related to a beta distribution [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12 ref13">12, 13</xref>
        ].
It can be useful in studying functions   () with a high value of the coeficient of variation,
which is typical of packet multiservice networks. Other distributions [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ], such as parabolic,
uniform, and others, are also relevant. When the derivative of function  () has several extrema,
we can use a combination of two or more distributions that belong to the   () class.
      </p>
      <p>
        To get a conclusive estimate, it is suficient to consider an example of using a beta distribution
defined on the interval [0;1]. In this case, its density ()
is determined by the following
relation [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ]:
() =
Γ( +  )
Γ()Γ( )
      </p>
      <p>−1 (1 − ) −1 .</p>
      <p>
        Variable  is a dimensionless value. It can be defined as time  divided by value  . The
following conditions are true for the distribution parameters in formula (1):  &gt; 0,  &gt; 0 . The
relations for calculating the mathematical expectation of the request arrival interval value  (1)
and its coeficient of variation   are given, for example, in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ]:


,   =
      </p>
      <p>√ ( +  + 1)
.</p>
      <p>(1)
(2)
(3)</p>
      <p>It is evident that  (1) &lt; 1. Having fixed value  (1), we change the parameters of the chosen
approximating distribution to obtain the necessary values for coeficient of variation
calculate parameters  and  , it is necessary to solve a system of two equations, which provides
  . To
the following result:
 =
[1 −  (1) (1 +  2 )] [1 −  (1)]
 (1) 2
,  =
1 −  (1) (1 +  2 ) .</p>
      <p>2

1.0</p>
      <p>
        Comparing two distributions with a 5% significance level according to Pearson’s chi-squared
test showed that the beta distribution can be used in further research. Then, we should choose
a teletrafic system model, which would allow us to evaluate errors in calculating values  (1)
and   . In this paper, a packet switch is considered a teletrafic system. The request (IP packet)
processing time can be safely considered a constant value [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref14 ref15">14, 15</xref>
        ]. Therefore, in the Kendall’s
notation [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ], the model under study can be represented as //1 . The designation “ ”
in the first position specifies the nature of the arrivals process, as determined by the beta
distribution. If the arrivals process is defined based on measurements, the letter “  ” [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ] should
be put in the first position.
      </p>
      <p>Later, we will describe the impact of request processing time distribution () on the evaluation
accuracy of values  (1) and   . For this reason, for the sake of generality, the processing time
for the //1 model is denoted below as moment  (1). Values  (1) should be chosen in such
a way as to investigate the dependence of errors  1 and  2 on model load  . According to the
above-mentioned designations, load  is defined by the relation of  (1) to  (1). In this paper,
the load range of 0.1 ⩽  ⩽ 0.9 is selected based on two considerations. The load of less than
0.1 is of no practical interest in terms of compliance with the Quality of Service targets. The
load greater than 0.9 is not typical of the teletrafic system’s operating processes and requires
additional research.</p>
      <p>
        The proposed range of load change  is suficient to analyze the operation modes of a model
being a teletrafic system, when the object under study functions in standard conditions, which
allow us to assume that the number of waiting places in a queue is unlimited. This hypothesis is
true if the real capacity of the bufer memory is rated for the loss probability at the approximate
level of 0.001, as stated by the International Telecommunication Union Standardization Sector
in Recommendation Y. 1541 [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">16</xref>
        ]. The validity of this assumption was established in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17">17</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>For the model under study, the values of errors  1 and  2 in the given range did not exceed
1.5%. This is quite acceptable for the tasks in the telecommunication network design. Several
similar models with other step function types have shown acceptable estimates for errors  1
and  2 in the given range of the load change.</p>
      <p>The change in distribution () , which allows us to analyze the change in values  1 and  2
when the coeficient of variation of the request processing time is increased to 2.0, showed that
the corresponding errors are within the same range. It means that the obtained estimates of
errors  1 and  2 are almost invariant with the request processing time distribution.</p>
      <p>The type of function  () , for which Pearson’s chi-squared test discards the hypothesis that
this function is similar to beta distribution () , was chosen artificially using variations in
values of increments   . The analysis of such functions  () and () showed that errors  1
and  2 begin to grow significantly and often exceed 20%. Generally, this value is not considered
acceptable for the analysis of the teletrafic system characteristics.</p>
      <p>
        The results confirm an intuitive conclusion that the positive result of the goodness-of-fit test
should be considered a “necessary” condition for applying the proposed method for choosing
function () . This statement is based on the understanding that the goodness-of-fit test is
indicative of a relatively small distance between the functions [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>
        However, as the analysis was limited to using only one distribution, it does not allow us
to apply this statement to all types of functions () . If we limit the types of function ()
to the distributions that passed the goodness-of-fit test, it will meet the “beauty in science”
criterion [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref18">18</xref>
        ].
5. Errors Related to Diferent Types of Distributions
The condition that the two moments of functions () and () should be equal can be met for
several types of the approximating distribution. This brings up the question about the preferred
type of distribution () . It may happen that some distributions will show very close values of
errors  1 and  2.
      </p>
      <p>
        This assumption is based on the results given in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref19">19</xref>
        ]. This monograph presents a graph of
Hurst exponent  dependence [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref20">20</xref>
        ] on coeficient of variation   for two types of distributions,
a gamma distribution and Weibull distribution [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ]. The mentioned graph is reproduced in
Figure 4. According to the graphs, the maximum deviation of the corresponding dependencies
does not exceed 5%.
      </p>
      <p>Errors of type  1 and  2 for diferent distributions () but with identical first and second
moments, respectively, are of practical interest. The variance or the coeficient of variation can
be used instead of the second moment if this simplifies the required calculations.</p>
      <p>
        Let us consider three types of distribution () . The first and second types are the same as
the distributions shown in Figure 4. The third type is a hyperexponential distribution [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ]. All
the described functions belong to the   () family. For all three distributions,  (1) = 1 and
  = 2. Table 1 shows the values of the skewness and kurtosis [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">4</xref>
        ], which significantly difer for
the distributions under study.
      </p>
      <p>
        However, the pattern of change in the three curves that represent the density graphs of the
distributions under study, has a common nature, which is illustrated in Figure 5 and confirmed
by the  2 test. In other words, functions  1 () ,  2 () and  3 () are close to each other [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">1</xref>
        ].
For this reason, any distribution can be chosen as an approximating dependence if values  (1)
and   are the same.
      </p>
      <p>0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
fu1(x), fu2(x), fu3(x)</p>
      <p>Probability density function of
hyperexponential distribution</p>
      <p>Probability density function
of Weibull distribution</p>
      <p>Probability density function</p>
      <p>of gamma distribution
0
2
4
6
8
10
x</p>
      <p>
        The last statement was verified by modeling a teletrafic system of type //1 [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref3">3</xref>
        ]. As in the
previous experiment, the load change was selected in the range of 0.1 ⩽  ⩽ 0.9 . The values of
errors  1 and  2 do not exceed 11%, which is quite acceptable for solving most of the practical
problems. It seems appropriate that, among the alternative functions of type   () , we select a
function with skewness closest to a similar value obtained by measuring the parameters of the
approximated distribution. This statement relies on the use of the skewness in the relation in
order to evaluate the quantile of the IP packet delay time, as recommended in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref16">16</xref>
        ].
      </p>
      <p>If the measurements do not match the approximating distribution but they have identical
values  (1) and   , there may be significant errors in further analysis of the teletrafic models.
Figure 6 shows an example of two such functions for distributions   () . It should be emphasized
that, while two densities are clearly diferent, they have the same values  (1) and   . Moreover,
both distributions have the same values of the skewness coeficient, which is equal to zero due
to the symmetry of functions  1 () and  2 () .</p>
      <p>2.5
2.0</p>
      <p>
        This example with functions  1 () and  2 () demonstrates a radical divergence of
distributions where values  (1) and   are the same. For these two functions, error  1 is small. It
amounts to a few percent for the given range of the model load. The situation with error  2 is
diferent: the error almost reaches 100% when the model is under high load. This indicates that
comparing only the mean values of random variables can yield false results.
6. Discussion of Results and Further Research Directions
The proposed method of choosing distribution () is characterized by very high accuracy in
evaluating the indicators of the quality of service for the multiservice trafic service presented as
a set of IP packets. This method is similar to the procedure proposed in [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref21">21</xref>
        ] for the analysis of
the stochastic characteristics of models with queues. This fact also indicates that the proposed
method for calculating characteristics  (1) and   is acceptable.
      </p>
      <p>However, it should be noted that, in theory, there could be some specific models with lower
accuracy in evaluating the indicators of the quality of service for the multiservice trafic.
Therefore, from this perspective, additional research is necessary to solve the following three
tasks.</p>
      <p>The first task is to establish the relations between the values of errors  1 and  2 and values   ,
or, possibly, only   . The method for determining values   was shown in Figure 1.</p>
      <p>
        The second task is to introduce the Mahalanobis distance as a measure of the distance between
functions [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref22">22</xref>
        ]. This approach appears to be very productive because it has shown good results
in studying the systems similar to the model described in this paper.
      </p>
      <p>
        The third task is to study the aspects of how the proposed method can be applied for step
functions  () , with several extrema on the histogram. Changes in the packet multiservice trafic
in emergencies [
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref23">23</xref>
        ] showed that sometimes several extrema are registered on the histograms
that provide the basis for constructing step functions  () .
      </p>
    </sec>
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