=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-2649/paper3
|storemode=property
|title=Models for Forecasting Systemic Transformations in the Economy of Resort-Recreational Sphere
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2649/paper3.pdf
|volume=Vol-2649
|authors=Pavel Zakharchenko,Mikhail Gritsenko,Natalya Kirkova,Viktor Mukhin
}}
==Models for Forecasting Systemic Transformations in the Economy of Resort-Recreational Sphere==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2649/paper3.pdf
21
Models for forecasting systemic transformations in the
economy of resort-recreational sphere
Pavel Zakharchenko1, Mikhail Gritsenko2, Natalya Kirkova3 and Viktor Mukhin4
1-4
Berdyansk State Pedagogical University, 4 Schmidt Str., 71100, Berdyansk, Ukraine
Abstract. The development of the economy of the recreation, resort and tour-
ism sphere is an important component of the development of the world econo-
my. Resorts are one of the most highly profitable areas of management. Ukraine
has a powerful resort and tourism potential, the effective development of which
can bring real economic benefits. It is necessary to carry out systemic transfor-
mations for the development of such systems, an integral part of which is the
formation of cost and economic systemic effects. The author’s concept based on
the theory of indicators is used as a methodological approach. The proposed
concept is used to analyze and predict economic processes in the resort and rec-
reation sector. In the study was built a set of forecasting models, which allows
with a high level of reliability to analyze structural changes in the resort-
recreational economy and build new development strategies. Forecast calcula-
tions are made and scenarios of the development of the resort and recreation
sphere are obtained. The simulation results can be used to formulate a new,
modern strategy for the development of resorts and tourism in Ukraine.
Keywords: resort-recreational economy, systemic transformations, forecasting
models, structural shifts, set of indicators.
1 Introduction
In today's world economy, recreation and tourism industries are one of the most prof-
itable and dynamically growing spheres. For many countries, this is not only a con-
stantly increasing source of financial revenue, but also a source of infrastructure de-
velopment and additional jobs through the attraction of millions of tourists. Ukraine
has a powerful resort and touristic-recreational potential, and the effective use of it
can bring real economic benefits. Therefore, in the process of market transformation
of the economy, the recreation and tourism spheres should occupy one of the leading
positions in the structure of the economic complex.
One of the main concepts of the development of touristic-recreational industry, the
importance of which is especially growing in the process of economic transformation,
is to enhance the level of cooperation and mutual support of resort, recreational and
tourist businesses which operate within the resort and recreation complex. There is a
need to formulate development strategies based on obtaining additional effect of
transformational policy to be implemented. Identification and use of such effects
Copyright © 2020 for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative
Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
22
helps to identify rational motives for the transformation of the resort and recreation
complex, combining the directions of activity of individual resort and tourist organi-
zations, as well as other forms of expansion of the resort and recreational spheres.
2 Related work
Significant scientific contribution to the formation of a theory of structural transfor-
mation of the economy and structural crises and their impact on the prices was made
by representatives of different schools of economic thought. The theoretical findings
of J. Schumpeter, P. Samuelson, J. Van Dain, D. Freeman, J. Forrester, M. Porat, and
R. Reich have become the starting points for further research in the field of structural
shifts, contributing to a deeper understanding of economic transformations, in particu-
lar, in the resort and recreational industries. However, the problems of forming a
structural contour during the transformation of the national economy remain debata-
ble.
Despite the considerable number of researches devoted to the economy of resort
and recreational systems, the idea of mechanisms of economic transformations and
cost effects are abstract in nature and are not systematic. There are virtually no studies
based on model application and computer analytics. The current situation necessitated
the creation of modern modelling techniques for further research and practical appli-
cation in connection with the undeniable significance of the problem of transforma-
tional development of the resort and recreational economy.
3 Research objectives
The formation and development of market relations in the resort and recreational
spheres is accompanied by active transformation of prices for resort products and
services. This is reflected both in significant inflation rates, that is reflected in chang-
es in the scale of prices, as well as in intense and uneven shifts in their structure,
which is understood as a combination of proportions of prices for various resort and
recreational products. Price shifts are always associated with economic transfor-
mations occurring in the resort and recreation complex [1, 2].
The purpose of the study is to analyze and predict the price shifts in the resort and
recreational economy during the transition to a new development strategy, which
involves the predominant provision of resort and recreational services integrated with
the leisure and tourism industries.
4 Methods and results of research
Price is the most important element in the structure of economic relations in which the
interests of the state, business and the general public are focused. The analysis of the
current price situation reveals the existing or emerging contradictions between the
interests of the different stakeholders in the economy, to determine the causes of dis-
23
tortions or price disparities, to draw conclusions about the trajectory of further pricing
process. Thus, the study of the price situation on the market makes significant contri-
bution to the analysis of the transformational economy. Firstly, it makes the analysis
systematic, and secondly, determines the price criteria for the stable state business
entities and consumers [3].
Transformation processes in the economy are usually fleeting compared to sustain-
able economic development. Therefore, many economic processes, that take place in
a national transformation economy, are characterized by significantly less typical
times than those in the relatively stable economies of other countries. In this regard, in
the economy of resort and recreational systems systemic effects in the form of cost
transformation effects are revealed. These effects include the intense and progressive
structural changes in the price system that have taken place over the years under the
old resort and recreation strategy and the new economic development strategy. These
shifts are an important part of the transformation processes in the national resort and
recreation economy and are not pertain to sustainable economies. They are caused, on
the one hand, by significant price disparities and, on the other hand, by the stability of
current price proportions, which tend to reproduce at a new level of prices, making
the process of their change lasting. This situation in the change of price proportions is
a fundamental factor in the dynamics of domestic prices for resort and recreational
products [4].
It should be noted that the change of proportions between the elements of the same
totality over time indicates a change in its structure, that is, structural changes. Struc-
tural shifts are a consequence of differences in the growth rate of elements of the to-
tality. An easy way to analyze the size of structural shifts is to compare individual or
group shares. However, they do not give a comprehensive description of the structural
shifts of the compared totalities. For this purpose, a considerable number of different
consolidated indicators of structural cost shifts have been proposed [5].
There are two main approaches to the construction of structural shift indicators in
the economic literature. Both approaches involve the use of data for some set of resort
and recreational products. According to the first approach, for each pair of mapping
situations, we consider a set of individual price indices for a set of resort and recrea-
tional products. Indicators are constructed by analogy with estimates of numerical
characteristics of one-dimensional probability distributions. The Structural Shift Indi-
cator is seen as a measure of the dispersion of the distribution of individual indices, as
a supplement to the consolidated price index. This approach develops the ideas of
stochastic index theory [6].
According to the second approach, for each of the mapping situations, we construct
-dimensional vector based on a set of resort and recreational products, the compo-
nents of which form a co-dimensional set. For each pair of situations, a pair of vectors
in -dimensional space are compared, differing in both length and direction. The ratio
of the norms of these vectors can be considered as a summary price index, and the
function of distance between their directions as an indicator of structural shifts. The
vector approach is based on the axiomatic theory of indexes [7].
Both approaches have many things in common, as they both view structure as a set
of proportions between elements. In both cases, the movement of the resort and recre-
24
ation system is described by consolidated price indices, the relative movement of
prices within the system is described by indicators of structural shifts.
The advantage of the first approach is the possibility of using functions of selective
moments in it, whereas in the second approach only the relation between the norms of
two vectors and the distance between their directions are naturally interpreted. The
advantage of the second approach is the ability to analyze the entire trajectory of the
movement of the price vector, in particular, more convenient to analyze the progres-
siveness of structural shifts.
Based on the second approach, let’s build a set of indicators that allow us to ana-
lyze structural cost shifts in the resort and recreational economy. Let – do-
mestic prices of the resort and recreational product of the period ; , – the
quantity of resort and recreational products in the set; – volumes of products
produced. The set , – for each period is commensurate, and
. We denote it and call it a vector of prices for the period . We define the
distance between the directions of two vectors and in the space of vectors of pric-
es for the chosen norm as ( ) ‖‖ ‖ ‖ ‖‖.
We will use the following indicators. The ratio of norms of vectors of prices
‖ ‖ ‖ ‖
‖ ‖
and give the estimates of inflation (price increases) over time
‖ ‖
from to and from to , respectively, that is, aggregate price indices. The
distances between the directions of the vectors of prices for the two periods
( ) and ( ) allow us to estimate the structural shifts from
time to and from to respectively, so they can be used as chain and base
indices of structural shifts.
If – the external prices of the period , the vector of their prices has
| |
components , , then the indicator gives an estimate of the
| |
private purchasing power parity for the used set of resort and recreational products.
The indicator ( ) allows to evaluate the structural changes between the
internal and external prices of the period , so it can be used as an index of quality of
structural changes. Thus, we get three indicators: ( ), ( ).
Let's consider the effect of transformation of prices in the conditions of the old and
new strategies of development of the resort and recreational industries. As shown
earlier, the new strategy for the development of the resort and recreation sector pro-
vides for the providing of resort and recreational products integrated with the leisure
and tourism industries. Based on the data presented in the sources [8, 9, 10], we will
construct indices for the resort and recreational economy and analyze them. The main
tasks of the analysis of effect of transformation of prices can be reduced to the follow-
ing groups.
The task of analyzing the intensity of structural shifts in the price system allows us
to determine in which of the successive time intervals the structure of the tourism and
recreational system has undergone a significant change, and in which - less. To do
this, we will use an indicator called the structural shift intensity index. Its essence
is that the faster structural changes occur, the higher is . Values shows how
25
quickly changing of the price ratios occurs. It should be noted that this indicator does
not tells us the direction of structural shifts, but only determines their speed. Howev-
er, these indicators are the most commonly used in practice. The dynamics of the
indices of the structural changes in the conditions of the old and new strategies of
development of the resort and recreational spheres are shown in Fig. 1 and Fig. 2.
0,3
0,25
Index value
0,2
0,15
0,1
0,05
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Fig. 1. Dynamic of the index of intensity of structural shifts in the price system under the old
strategy of functioning
As can be seen from Fig. 1 the intensity of structural changes in the price system in
the operation of the resort and recreational industry under the conditions of the old
strategy is controversial. The periods of decline in the intensity of shifts were changed
by the periods of their growth. This is indicative of the unstable nature of the resort
and recreation economy, which operates in the conditions of chaotic changes in the
scale of prices and price disparities. All the same variants of the index for the new
strategy of development of the resort and recreational sphere (Fig. 2) show a down-
ward trend.
0,14
0,12
0,1
Index value
0,08
0,06
0,04
0,02
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Year
Fig. 2. Dynamic of the index of intensity of structural shifts in the price system under the new
strategy of functioning
26
The decline of over time means an increase in the synchronization of changes in
prices for resort and recreational products. As we move from the market with direct
regulation of prices to market relations, where prices are set on the basis of market
mechanisms and inflation decreases, such dynamics of testify to the high efficiency
of activity of the resort and recreational industries. Thus, this is how systemic trans-
formation effect on price in the resort and recreation economy is manifested.
It should be noted that the indicator does not allow to judge whether the intensi-
ty of structural shifts reflects the progressiveness of transformation processes or the
consequence of irregular fluctuations in individual price indices, since the values of
the indicator reflect both the overall shift in price structure and the asynchronous
change in prices for individual resort and recreational products.
The goal of analyzing the progressiveness of structural shifts in the price system is
to determine to what extent structural shifts is explained by a tendency, and to what
extent they are merely the result of irregular fluctuations. This task answers the ques-
tion of whether the structure of the resort and recreation system has changed. The
indicator , called the basic structural shift index, quantifies the structural shift
over the time that has elapsed between periods and . This indicator shows how
much price ratios for the period have changed compared to the price ratios of the
period . The higher the value of the index, the more the price structure changed, and
vice versa. So this makes it possible to use as the indicator of progressiveness of
structural changes in the resort and recreational spheres. The index does not show the
direction of structural shifts, but only determines their scale. The dynamics of the
structural indices of structural changes in the conditions of the old and new
strategies of development of the resort and recreational industries are shown in Fig. 3
and Fig. 4.
1
0,9
0,8
0,7
Index value
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Fig. 3. Dynamic of the index of the progressiveness of structural shifts under the old strategy of
functioning
27
The results of the calculations presented in Fig. 3, show that there was a significant
change in the scale of prices and significant shifts in price proportions at this period of
time. This is due to the introduction of market relationships in the resort and recrea-
tion industries, the growth of inflation and the economic transformations that are tak-
ing place in the resort and recreation economy. In case of transition to the new strate-
gy of development in Fig. 4 shifts in price proportions tend to decline, indicating a
stabilization of price proportions. Thus, we can speak of the existence of the effect of
transformation of prices, which is the phenomenon of powerful translational structural
shifts not only in the short, but also in the long term.
0,8
0,7
0,6
Index value
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year
Fig. 4. Dynamic of the index of the progressiveness of structural shifts under the new strategy
of functioning
The analysis of the intensity of structural changes, even supported by the analysis
of their progressivity, does not allow to draw conclusions about their orientation in
the resort and recreational spheres. Thus, it is almost impossible to judge whether the
structure of the resort and recreation system has improved, whether it has deteriorated
or remained unchanged as a result of changing and implementing new development
strategies. The solution of the problem of directionality of structural shifts of the price
system allows to obtain an assessment of the quality of the structure at each investi-
gated moment of time, i.e. to evaluate both the scale of quality and its dynamics.
We use an indicator , called the structural shifts quality index, to analyze the ori-
entation of structural shifts in the price system in the national resort and recreation
industries. In this case, it shows how big the difference is between the internal price
structure of period and the fixed external price structure. The smaller , the closer
the internal and external structures are. The zero value of the indicator corresponds to
the full coincidence of price proportions. The dynamics of quality indices for re-
sort and recreational products are shown in Figure 5.
28
0,6
0,5
0,4
Index value
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year
Fig. 5. Dynamic of the index of quality of structural shifts in the resort and recreation industries
It is noticeable that is the large value of the index at the beginning of this period.
This means that the structure of national consumer prices and European prices is sig-
nificantly different. In general, the nature of the transformation process demonstrates
a downward trend over time. This leads to the conclusion that as the transformation
process progresses, the price structure will converge, while remaining below Europe-
an prices [11]. Such a scenario is one of the competitive advantages of the national
resort and recreation sector. Thus, the practical calculations confirm the hypothesis
that as the market relations in Ukraine develop, the degree of openness of the national
economy and the elimination of imbalances, the structure of domestic prices for resort
and recreational products should gradually approach the price proportions characteris-
tic of the world economy.
Based on the results of the analysis of indicators and , it can be concluded
that the structure of national consumer prices for resort and recreational products as a
whole demonstrates a tendency to move away from its initial state and move closer to
the structure of European consumer prices.
In economic literature, a significant amount of various summary indicators of
structural shifts is offered. For our research we will use the following indicators:
‖ ‖
─ chain index of production volumes ‖ ‖
, which shows the ratio of the lengths
of the vectors and gives a summary estimate of the change in the production of re-
sort-recreation products over time from to ;
─ chain index of structural shifts ‖‖ ‖ ‖ ‖‖, which shows the distance
between the directions of the cost vectors for the current period and the previous
one, and allows us to judge the structural changes. A chain index of structural
shifts, based on the comparison of adjacent periods, giving a quantitative assess-
ment of structural shifts at a single step in time, allows to solve the problem of ana-
lyzing the intensity of structural shifts in the resort-recreation economy. That is, to
29
determine in which of the successive intervals the structure of the population has
undergone a more significant transformation, and in which – less. Than bigger ,
the more intensively there are structural shifts and vice versa;
─ basic index of structural shifts ‖ ‖, which shows distance be-
‖ ‖ ‖ ‖
tween the directions of vectors of costs for two any periods and allows to judge
about the structural shifts, which happened for appropriate time.
Thus, summary indicators of structural shifts and can be also presented
and as distances between the directions of vectors of costs during the comparable
periods and as relative measures of a variation of individual indexes of the production
of resort-recreation products. The basic index of structural shifts based on comparison
of any periods, giving a quantitative assessment of structural shifts for corresponding
time, allows to solve a problem of the analysis of gradualness of structural shifts. That
is, to determine to what extent structural shifts are based on a tendency, and to what
extent they are only a result of irregular fluctuations. The more , the more the
structure of production changed, and vice versa. At the same time, it should be noted
that indexes of structural shifts and , allowing to analyze intensity and pro-
gressiveness of such shifts, do not allow to solve a problem of the analysis of orienta-
tion of structural shifts. That is, they do not allow to determine whether the structure
of the recreation-recreation system has improved, whether it has deteriorated or re-
mained unchanged.
For the purpose of the solution of the specified problem, we will use the indicator
of quality of structural shifts in resort-recreation economy. We will define the index
∑
of quality of structure in a look ∑
. The value shows flowing quality of
structure of production of a resort-recreation product according to the entered criteri-
on. Growth over time and as a result of transformations corresponds to an im-
provement in the quality of the structure, a decrease – a deterioration.
Based on the data provided in sources [9, 10] we will construct the specified in-
dexes for resort-recreation economy and we will carry out their analysis. The dynam-
ics of the national resort-recreation economy of the period ( – )
in question has a clear character of the transition process. Initially, there was a ten-
dency of a slow recession with periods of small growth, and then there was a tenden-
cy to accelerate the recession with the transformation into a transformational crisis
(Fig. 6). At the lower point of the recession (2014) the intensity of production of the
resort-recreation product is only 37% of the level of 2000, that is the resort activity
decreased by 2.6. Such scale transformational crisis is caused by a number of the
reasons. One of the system-wide reasons is that than the system is more difficult,
especially it will undergo deep crisis at transformations.
30
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
-0,5
Index value, %
-1
-1,5
-2
-2,5
-3
Year
Fig. 6. The chain index of volumes in general on the resort-recreation sphere and its trend for
the period – years
The great depth of the transformation crisis in the resort-recreation economy re-
flects the great complexity of the pre-national complex. The higher the level of devel-
opment of such systems, the earlier the deeper the transformational crisis in them.
This is one of the differences of economic transformation in Ukraine from other coun-
tries. Another reason for this is that there are significant disparities in the national
economy, when the resort-recreation sector has not been given due attention. At the
same time, in developed market economies, resorts and tourism are among the main
budget-forming industries. Another cause of the crisis is the sharp decline in demand
for national resort-recreation products. It is caused by low consumer solvency, quality
of services provided, low competitiveness of Ukrainian health resorts and unpromis-
ing development strategy.
Against the background of the general trend of the transformation crisis, small cy-
cles of the dynamics of production of resort-recreation products are observed. Thanks
to these cycles, the crisis develops rather unevenly, with shocks (Fig. 6), periods of its
sharp acceleration, alternating periods of short-term stabilization and recovery. Such
cycles are not typical of sustainable economies. Therefore, the national resort-
recreation economy can be characterized as a fast-changing economy, and this signif-
icantly differentiates it from existing stable economies. Thus, there is another strategic
systemic effect.
The way out of this situation is the transition to a new strategy for the development
of the resort-recreation sector, which involves the predominant provision of resort-
recreation services integrated with the leisure and tourism industries. Such a transition
is always accompanied by economic transformations associated with the transfor-
mation of the existing structure of the resort-recreation systems, and structural chang-
es in the economy. In Fig. 7 shows a chart of the chain index of structural shifts in the
production of resort-recreation products , which shows how quickly structural
changes occur in this case. From the graphics it follows that the intensification of
31
changes in the volume of production of resort-recreation products in the transition to a
new strategy for the development of resort-recreation sphere is accompanied by inten-
sification of changes in the structure of systems. Such dynamics confirms the hypoth-
esis that there is an effect of linking the intensity of structural shifts with the rate of
change in the volume of production of resort-recreation products.
0,25
0,2
Index value, %
0,15
0,1
0,05
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year
Fig. 7. Index of intensity of structural shifts
As the indicator of forward structural shifts, we will use the basic index of struc-
tural shifts . Calculation results, which are presented in fig. 8 shows that in case
of transition to the new development strategy for the analyzed period in the resort-
recreation sphere there will be considerable shifts in structure of production of resort-
recreation products.
0,35
0,3
0,25
Index value, %
0,2
0,15
0,1
0,05
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year
Fig. 8. Basic index of structural shifts
32
In particular, the tendency to withdrawal of proportions of production from propor-
tions, existing prior to economic transformations is observed. Value shows the
considerable scale of such removal for all analyzed period. That circumstance that
grows with growth | |indicates existence of forward structural shifts on
all considered time interval.
For the analysis of orientation of structural shifts, we will make calculations and
we will construct the schedule of the index of quality of structure of production of
resort-recreation products (fig. 9). Dynamics shows steady growth throughout
the analyzed period. Therefore, upon transition to the new development strategy, the
quality of structure of a system improves, and production of innovative resort-
recreation products grows at the advancing rates.
0,7
0,6
0,5
Index value, %
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year
Fig. 9. Index of quality of structural shifts
Thus, the index of quality validates the choice of the direction of carrying out
transformations. That is transformational process in the resort-recreation sphere has to
be followed by structural shifts of such orientation and can be considered as one more
strategic system effect.
5 Conclusions
Summarizing the results of the conducted research, it should be noted that the model
of functioning of the resort and recreation industries, which was based on the old
strategy of development, was accompanied not only by a considerable inflation rate,
but also by an intensive transformation of price proportions. The period of such shifts
proved to be very stretched over time. Not only intensive structural shifts in the short
term, but also translational shifts in the long term are observed.
One of the price transformational effects of this period was the practical absence of
movement of consumer price proportions during their liberalization in the direction of
33
eliminating existing imbalances. They were only partially eliminated with rising pric-
es and after a long time. This is explained by the stability of price proportions, which
tend to reproduce at each new price level, and reflects the integrity of the national
resort and recreation sector. Thus, there is a situation of combining the stability of
price proportions with the large scale of their change, which is characteristic of a
transformational economy.
In the context of the new development strategy of the resort and recreation indus-
tries, there is a positive correlation between the inflation rate and the intensity of
structural shifts: higher inflation rates are generally accompanied by more intense
structural shifts, and vice versa. This effect is observed both in the short and long
term. Thus, the existence of a long-term effect of the link between the accumulated
structural shifts and the total increase in prices can be considered a specificity of the
national resort and recreational economy.
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