This article discusses the optimal management of the distribution of the net income of an oil and gas company, taking into account risks. The utility function for the investigated enterprise acts as an optimality criterion. The control parameter is the distribution of the shares of net income for its optimal distribution in the selected areas. As a numerical implementation of the proposed algorithm, the activity of a catch oil and gas enterprise in the period 2018-2022 is considered. The optimal distribution of the received net income is given taking into account the discount rate and deductions to the State budget of Ukraine. The proposed algorithm can be used for optimal management of the company's financial activities.
An existing enterprise of the oil and gas complex in modern conditions should pay special attention to risk management. The main goal of the company is to maximize profit. Achievement of this task will be possible only if all risks affecting the operation of the enterprise are considered. The authors [10; 46] show that the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes the COVID-19 leads to uncertainty in various areas of economics, finance, risk management, social development, etc. They review scientific materials, according to the study the impact of COVID-19 on global health security, business risk management and other areas.
Risk management needs to be coordinated across the organization. All types of risk, both internal and external, should be managed in a comprehensive manner. One of the ___________________ Copyright © 2020 for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). approaches to reduce the risk of an enterprise is to predict the occurrence of a risk event and take appropriate measures to reduce it. Here the problem arises in the allocation of appropriate funds to prevent a risk situation. This study allows you to obtain the optimal distribution of cash flows required to reduce possible risky transactions. The total amount of necessary funds is taken as a part of the profit received, i.e. the optimal distribution of the company’s profits also takes into account measures to reduce the degree of risk at the enterprise. The ability to optimally manage risky operations allows top management to obtain financial stability, competitiveness and stable profitability of an oil and gas company. 2
Socio-economic instability, which is manifested at the present time, suggests that enterprises should devote the most important role to risk management in order to ensure a stable financial and economic condition of the enterprise. Ernst & Young reports the most important types of risks that occur in the activities of an oil and gas company [37; 48]. In [45], an analysis of the activities of oil and gas companies from the Fortune 500 list is carried out: ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Baker Hughes, Valero Energy, and Frontier Oil Corporation. The authors deeply analyze the types of risks that exist in the activities of these companies, including those associated with an increase in production capacity. This analysis allowed to diversify the risk portfolio and improve the financial stability of the company.
Many economists pay special attention to the problem of risk management and in their works reflect the basic concepts of the methodology and practice of risk management. To assess the external risks of foreign economic activity of an enterprise in [31], it is proposed to apply a three-dimensional model for assessing and identifying risks, as well as to use a tabular description of the enterprise’s activities. The authors in [40] presented a scientific approach for assessing the external economic security of an enterprise. The main mechanisms for managing the anticipated risks and the stages of the implementation of the task are proposed. This approach allows a comprehensive approach to assessing the external economic security of an enterprise.
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The technology of teaching risk management using a business game is considered in
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For enterprise management, an algorithm for modeling a multi-criteria function was
proposed [27]. A system of indicators has been built that allows evaluating the activities
of an enterprise based on an integrated index. This indicator is based on a partial utility
function. The proposed methodological approach takes into account the main
characteristics of the enterprise’s activities with the possibility of their classification
and systematization. In [
In [25], the political risk to security in an oil and gas company is considered. The authors show that there are risks at different levels: transnational, national and the level of human security. Investing in an oil and gas company depends on the risk management strategy. Due to the increased frequency of terrorist attacks in oil and gas companies, it is proposed to pay more attention to the risk of political security and apply an integrated approach to risk management.
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One of the methods of risk prevention is to eliminate the source of risk through specific measures. A narrow approach is to prevent risk through insurance premiums. The insurer is the initiator of this approach. Insurance companies create an optimization portfolio of financial instruments taking into account risk minimization [21; 36].
In [28], an approach was developed to assess the index of economic stability of an
enterprise, based on an integral indicator. For the study, the authors used fractal analysis
in combination with elements of the theory of a fuzzy set. The proposed method makes
it possible to assess the effective activity of an enterprise in conditions of incomplete
information. In [
The authors of [
The amount of products produced in the oil and gas complex should be optimal from
the point of view of its implementation. If this condition is violated, an imbalance
occurs in the country’s energy system. In [
An in-depth analysis of the financial risk of manufacturing companies is presented
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The authors in their work [26] analyzed the impact of enterprise risk management on the financial performance of 12 companies. It has been shown that the best indicators of profitability, liquidity and productivity improvement of a company occur when there is oversight of the enterprise risk management department by the company’s Board of Directors. Depending on the size and complexity of the company, a more complex enterprise risk management framework needs to be employed. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between enterprise risk management and the audit committee, senior management and the chief risk officer [30]. To study the mutual influence, a non-experimental correlation approach was used. Based on correlation and regression analyzes, it is shown that the effectiveness of enterprise risk management depends significantly on the opinion of the risk director, the presence of an audit committee and the support of senior management. In [22; 23], attention was paid to modeling the assessment of the tax consciousness of tax subjects under conditions of uncertainty and risk. Based on the results of the study, the optimal combination of tax structural components of consciousness is calculated to maximize its level and reduce tax risks arising in the process of functioning of the state and taxpayer organizations.
The activity of any enterprise, especially oil and gas, is aimed at increasing the economic potential of the country. One of the main indicators is GDP. Forecasting and control of its components are presented in works [29; 34]. To predict macroeconomic indicators, artificial intelligence methods are widely used, in particular, neural networks and elements of the theory of fuzzy logic [32]. Noteworthy is the original approach to modeling the economic indicators of different countries, when initially all countries are segmented into a number of clusters based on key features, each of which unites countries according to the type of behavior. And already within the framework of each individual cluster, forecasting models of the studied macroeconomic indicators are built. This approach can be used in modeling and forecasting the performance indicators of an oil and gas company.
One of the main criteria for the operation of an oil and gas enterprise is resource security [39], which consists of economic actors, environment and purposeful economic process. Risk analysis and management is carried out in order to optimize national resource security. Based on the research, a comprehensive mechanism for supporting innovative research and the safety of technological resources was developed.
In modern conditions, new information technologies come to the fore in production activities. One of the areas of product implementation is electronic commerce [42]. The authors assess the impact of e-commerce on enterprise profits. A comparative analysis of traditional enterprise trade and electronic commerce is carried out. The work developed a model of price competition between companies. A model of a mixed strategy of a company for the sale of goods is considered. In [44], the Salop model with symmetric product differentiation is considered to analyze the expansion of the ecommerce market. The paper shows that the seller’s income increases proportionally with the number of buyers. The analysis of advertising costs increases cubically with the number of buyers. The analysis of the optimal advertising costs in the competitive equilibrium model with free access is carried out. The ability to predict product sales is possible based on the Bass model [33]. This model allows you to get the maximum profit for the enterprise at the best price.
In [41], based on the definition of the integral indicator, a model of socio-economic development is investigated. The research uses the methods of factorial, correlation and regression analyzes, as well as the method of expert estimates. The proposed algorithm allows you to efficiently analyze data and obtain adequate integral indicators, incl. and at the enterprises of the oil and gas complex.
A comprehensive study of enterprise innovation processes is especially relevant in
the current Industry 4.0 environment [
In [43], a three-level information system for managing business processes was developed. The web-application includes the necessary functional blocks for ecommerce. This system allows for electronic interaction between sellers and buyers.
Analysis of the scientific, theoretical and practical results of the study shows that it is necessary to conduct additional research on the integrated management of enterprise risks in order to optimize them.
The methodological basis of this research is the following scientific research methods: statistical analysis; correlation and regression analysis; factor analysis; simulation modeling; optimization theory; the Pontryagin maximum principle. 3
The result of this study is to find the optimal management of the distribution of the net profit of an oil and gas company. The study of historical data allows you to obtain a regression equation that reflects the dependence of the company’s net profit P(t) on independent variables. The indicators reflecting the areas of use of net profit act as independent factors. Let’s represent the regression equation in the form: ( ) = + ∑ ( ) (1) where a0 – is the free term in the regression equation; ai – regression coefficients ( = 1, ); ( ) – independent variables ( = 1, ).We will assume that the resulting linear regression equation for independent factors is adequate and its coefficients are significance.
Thus, we get that on the basis of historical data it is possible to predict the received profit of the company for future periods. To do this, you need to use the regression equation (1). To obtain the necessary predicted data for independent variables, it is necessary to use the laws of distribution of these variables, as well as external and internal factors of influence on the operation of the enterprise.
The task is to determine the optimal use of net profit for transferring the system from the initial state to a given final state. The objective function is the utility function of the investigated enterprise. The management parameters are the shares of net profit aimed at achieving the assigned task. To solve the problem of optimal management of the distribution of the company’s net profit, it is necessary to solve the following system of equations. 1. A system of differential equations: ( ) = ( ) + ( ) , ( = 1, ) where – rate of change of the i-th studied variable management functions; – control parameters (0 ≤ ( ); ( ) = ≤ 1, = 1, ; ∑ 2. Initial conditions:
( ) = 3. The utility function for the enterprise: (2) ( ) – ≤ 1).
(3) (4) ∫ ( − ){1 − ∑ where – coefficients of the variables under study at a finite time T (obtained from the transversality condition); = ( 1 + ) – interest accrual rate; i – interest rate (discount) (%).
As a result, we obtain a mathematical model of the optimal distribution of the company’s net profit. It is assumed that the independent variables are transferred from a given initial state to a given final state along an optimal trajectory with respect to the control parameters. To solve the resulting system (1) – (4), we use the Pontryagin maximum principle [1; 38].
Let us find a solution to the problem posed for the case of distribution of net profit in four directions and a linear regression equation. The main areas of use of net profit: X1 – capital investment; X2 – deductions for social events; X3 – costs of monitoring the operation of underground gas storage (UGS); X4 – deduction to the State budget of Ukraine. In the model, we assume that the deduction to the State Budget of Ukraine is a constant percentage of the company’s net profit. In the further listed implementation, we will consider several possible options (30%, 40%,45%).
To solve the problem, we construct the Hamiltonian function: ( ) = ∑ ( )( ( ) + ( ) ( )) + 1 − ∑ ( ) ( ) (5) where ( ) = (1 − ) ( ); differential equations (6):
( ) – auxiliary functions found from the system of ( ) = −{ ( ) + (1 − ) [∑ ( ) ( ) + ( ) ( )]}, = 1,3 , (6) Auxiliary functions must satisfy the transversality condition: The optimal control parameters are as follows:
( ) = − , ( = 1,3) ∗ = − ( ( )) ( ) , ( = 1,3) (7) (8) As a numerical implementation of the proposed algorithm, we will consider the activities of a conditional oil and gas enterprise. We will use the results of their activities in 2018 as initial data. Consider the options for distributing the company’s net income for a five-year period. To solve this problem, it is necessary to set the numerical values of the independent variables in 2022. The initial data for the calculation are presented in table 1.
From the point of view of economic efficiency, the developed model makes it possible to optimally distribute the profit of the enterprise, within the limited financial resources, to manage environmental risks. The cost of managing environmental risks does not increase compared to traditional profit sharing approaches. The developed model is applicable both for the entire system of enterprise risks that are interconnected and for individual environmental risks and industrial groups. This is achieved by taking into account in the model the amount of damage, and not the amount of risk. The use of the developed model will reduce the costs of risk management by 10-15% in conditions of uncertainty and, accordingly, increase the profit of the enterprise by 15-20%, which will generally increase environmental sustainability. It should be noted that losses from environmental disasters are the largest and most difficult to predict. Therefore, the optimal distribution of profits for risk management and efficiency from investment in safety will not only reduce costs, but also reduce the likelihood of unforeseen consequences that may affect the environment.
In this paper, we consider the problem of optimal management of the company’s net income. The distribution of net income occurs in the most important areas of its use. One of the main directions is the use of the obtained profit to prevent possible damage from various risks. In this setting, a mandatory deduction to the State Budget of Ukraine is assumed. Optimal management of the company’s income is simulated, with these deductions of 30%, 40% or 45%. Tables 2 and 3 show the distribution of net income for the period up to 2022 excluding the discount factor. Table 4 shows the dynamics of financial flows and the share distribution of the net income of the conditional oil and gas company, taking into account the discount factor and deductions to the State Budget of Ukraine in the amount of 30% of the net profit ( = 0,05; = 0,3).
This mathematical model can be used as a guideline for the adoption by the top management of the enterprise of a long-term plan for its development. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38.