=Paper=
{{Paper
|id=Vol-2761/HAICTA_2020_paper42
|storemode=property
|title=A Preliminary Review on the Adaptation of Crops and Ecosystem Services to Agricultural Policy and Climate Change
|pdfUrl=https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2761/HAICTA_2020_paper42.pdf
|volume=Vol-2761
|authors=Thomas Bournaris,Christina Moulogianni,George Vlontzos,Ioannis Georgilas
|dblpUrl=https://dblp.org/rec/conf/haicta/BournarisMVG20
}}
==A Preliminary Review on the Adaptation of Crops and Ecosystem Services to Agricultural Policy and Climate Change==
https://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2761/HAICTA_2020_paper42.pdf
A Preliminary Review on the Adaptation of Crops and
Ecosystem Services to Agricultural Policy and Climate
Change
Thomas Bournaris1, Christina Moulogianni1, George Vlontzos2, Ioannis Georgilas1
1
Department of Agricultural Economics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece;
e-mail: tbournar@agro.auth.gr
2
Department of Agriculture, Crop Production and Rural Development, University of
Thessaly, Volos, Greece; e-mail: gvlontzos@agr.uth.gr
Abstract. The use of different methodologies of integrated impact assessment
in agricultural production is a powerful tool in the hands of scientists to evaluate
various factors. Integrated impact assessment with model development has been
proposed by various studies as a mean of enhancing the management of complex
systems. The aim of this paper is to present the preliminary review on the
integrated impact assessment of the CAP changes and climate change on
agricultural production, in order to determine the adaptation of farmers to
possible policy changes.
Keywords: impact assessment; adaptation; CAP; climate change.
1 Introduction
Assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural production has always been
a difficult field of study. In addition, farmers’ adaptation to the rules of cross-
compliance affects the management of the agricultural holdings. The structure of cross-
compliance will become even stricter for the period 2021-2027. At the same time, the
obligations arising from Regulation 1306/2013 on the environment concern all crops,
but in particular the crops of the region of Central Macedonia and therefore a wide
range of ecosystem services.
Climate change is exacerbating the ecosystem as a whole (Munang, Thiaw,
Alverson, Liu, & Han, 2013) and therefore the results of the applied policies have been
evident in Europe (Nelson et al., 2013). The results of the EU policies has been a
reduction in greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and 2004 for all sectors of the
economy and especially for agriculture (Bessou, Ferchaud, Gabrielle, & Mary, 2011).
The European Council agreed in 2007 on a comprehensive energy and climate strategy
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% compared to 1990. However, Greece has
managed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions only by 2.8% compared to 1990
(European Commission, 2016). Therefore, the path of Greek agricultural adaptation is
still in its infancy and the time frame is minimal.
288
The aim of the research is an integrated impact assessment of the CAP changes and
climate change on agricultural production, in order to determine the adaptation of
farmers to possible policy changes. The research will be implemented in the region of
Central Macedonia in Greece. The research aims to present different cultivation
models and adaptation level to climate change and CAP changes. Initially, a number
of climate change scenarios will be proposed based on the data of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a number of General
Circulation Models (GCM model), while ecosystem service indicators (e.g. biomass
derivatives, stocks, stocks) will be identified and quantified. In this paper the
preliminary review on the integrated impact assessment methods and models and also
the phases and work packages of the applied research are presented.
2 Integrated Impact Assessment
European common agricultural policy, which focuses on increased productivity,
must evolve and lead in a different direction, with the development of a multi-
functional body (Holman, Brown, Janes, & Sandars, 2017). The use of different
methodologies of integrated impact assessment in agricultural production is a powerful
tool in the hands of scientists to evaluate various factors. Integrated impact assessment
with model development has been proposed by various studies as a means of enhancing
complex management systems (Harris, 2002; Parker et al., 2002; Parson, 1995). For
impact assessment, the use of methods such as bio-economic models, environmental
risk mapping, life cycle analysis, multiple factor systems, and environmental impact
assessment are well-documented methods.
However, the use of a bio-economic farm model is the strongest and most
widespread methodology for integrated data evaluation in the agricultural sector
(Kirchner et al., 2015). In the literature, bio-economic models may exist under different
names such as ecological-economic or by combining the terms environment and
economy (Janssen & van Ittersum, 2007). A great advantage of the methodology is the
recognition of possible trade-offs between environmental and economic objects
(Ruben, Moll, & Kuyvenhoven, 1998), which facilitates and accelerates the process of
impact assessment. They also include useful aspects that are not taken into account in
the policy-making process (Pacini, Wossink, Giesen, & Huirne, 2004) and allow the
assessment of policies based on pressure policies (eg quotas, subsidies) or producers'
trade policies (e.g. x. direct taxes, cross-compliance) (K. Falconer & Hodge, 2000).
The variety of the results is another advantage of the methodology, as it can be
modified depending on the interest group (policy makers, farmers, or other
stakeholders). The ways to present the results are in the form of indicators (Pacini et
al., 2004; Zander & Kächele, 1999), in the form of resilience (K. Falconer & Hodge,
2000; Pannell, 1997), in the form of boundary analysis and in the form of cost-
effectiveness ratio (Katherine Falconer & Hodge, 2001). Therefore, the
implementation of a bio-economic farm model is a modular process and can be used
to simulate the response of farms and ecosystem services to changes in policy and
climate change.
289
The development of climate change scenarios will be based primarily on the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) database and the creation of
General Circulation Models (GCM model) (Holman et al., 2017; Reidsma et al., 2015).
Similar methods have been used in Europe to assess the impact of climate change on
agriculture (Audsley et al., 2014), water management (Wimmer et al., 2014), floods
(Mokrech, Kebede, Nicholls, Wimmer, & Feyen, 2014) and climate assessment policy
(Jäger et al., 2014). Simulation of climate change scenarios is part of a process of
integrated impact assessment so that we can reduce the range of climate data (El Chami
& Daccache, 2015).
3 Methodology
The use of an integrated impact assessment model for agricultural and
environmental policies is based on different models that work repeatedly to make
better use of information. Τhe implementation of a bio-economic farm model allows
the preliminary evaluation of technological innovations and policies on a number of
different geographical and climatic conditions. The process is started by a market
equilibrium model for regulating the supply and demand of agricultural products
(Britz, Perez Dominguez, Zimmermann, & Heckelei, 2007; Ewert et al., 2011). Then,
with the introduction of data in the Optimization Program (FSSIM), the economic
efficiency and the adaptation of the ecosystem services to the changes of the
agricultural policy in the past will be measured.
The methodology to be followed in the research is a process that is divided into four
phases, since it is a systematic and gradual approach:
1. Defining the aim of the research. In this phase, the process to be followed is
described and analyzed. The framework and boundaries of the research as well as the
concepts to be studied are identified.
2. Identification and quantification of all models used in the literature and selection
of a model for the integrated impact assessment of agricultural crops.
3. Monitoring and evaluating the impacts (environmental and economic) at the
regional level of climate change and changing agricultural policy.
4. Interpretation of the results where the results of impact assessment are analyzed.
At the same time, the methodological plan of the research includes 3 main work
packages which are distributed during the research, following the above logical phases.
The work packages of the project management as well as the dissemination of the
results will be applied in parallel with the 3 main work packages throughout the
research.
Detailed work packages include:
• WP1 Project Management
• WP2 Literature Review
• WP3 Model selection for the integrated impact assessment of the
adaptation of agricultural crops - Data Collection
• WP4 Application of the model - Analysis of the results
• WP5 Dissemination of results
290
WP1 Project Management
WP2 Literature Review
WP3 Model selection for the integrated IA of the
adaptation of agricultural crops - Data Collection
WP4 Application of the model - Analysis of the
results
WP5 Dissemination of results
Fig. 1. Phases and Work Packages of the project.
Acknowledgments. This research is co-financed by Greece and the European Union
(European Social Fund- ESF) through the Operational Programme «Human Resources
Development, Education and Lifelong Learning 2014-2020» in the context of the
project “Adaptation of agricultural crops and ecosystem services to agricultural policy
changes and climate change: An Integrated Impact Assessment of crops in Central
Macedonia” (MIS 5047893).
References
1. Audsley, E., Trnka, M., Sabaté, S., Maspons, J., Sanchez, A., Sandars, D., … Pearn,
K. (2014). Interactively modelling land profitability to estimate European
agricultural and forest land use under future scenarios of climate, socio-economics
and adaptation. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1164-6
2. Bessou, C., Ferchaud, F., Gabrielle, B., & Mary, B. (2011). Biofuels, greenhouse
gases and climate change. A review. Agronomy for Sustainable Development,
31(1), 1–79. https://doi.org/10.1051/agro/2009039
3. Britz, W., Perez Dominguez, I., Zimmermann, A., & Heckelei, T. (2007).
Definition of the CAPRI Core Modelling System and Interfaces with other
Components of SEAMLESS-IF.
291
4. El Chami, D., & Daccache, A. (2015). Assessing sustainability of winter wheat
production under climate change scenarios in a humid climate - An integrated
modelling framework. Agricultural Systems.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2015.08.008
5. European Commission. (2016). EU energy in figures.
https://doi.org/10.2833/670359
6. Ewert, F., van Ittersum, M. K., Heckelei, T., Therond, O., Bezlepkina, I. V., &
Andersen, E. (2011). Scale changes and model linking methods for integrated
assessment of agri-environmental systems. Agriculture, Ecosystems and
Environment. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2011.05.016
7. Falconer, K., & Hodge, I. (2000). Using economic incentives for pesticide usage
reductions: Responsiveness to input taxation and agricultural systems. Agricultural
Systems. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0308-521X(00)00007-X
8. Falconer, Katherine, & Hodge, I. (2001). Pesticide taxation and multi-objective
policy-making: Farm modelling to evaluate profit/environment trade-offs.
Ecological Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(00)00236-6
9. Harris, G. (2002). Chapter 1 - Integrated Assessment and Modeling — Science for
Sustainability (R. Costanza & S. E. B. T.-U. and S. E. P. in the 21st C. Jørgensen,
Eds.). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-008044111-5/50003-2
10. Holman, I. P., Brown, C., Janes, V., & Sandars, D. (2017). Can we be certain about
future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment
analysis. Agricultural Systems. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.12.001
11. Jäger, J., Rounsevell, M. D. A., Harrison, P. A., Omann, I., Dunford, R.,
Kammerlander, M., & Pataki, G. (2014). Assessing policy robustness of climate
change adaptation measures across sectors and scenarios. Climatic Change.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1240-y
12. Janssen, S., & van Ittersum, M. K. (2007). Assessing farm innovations and
responses to policies: A review of bio-economic farm models. Agricultural
Systems. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2007.03.001
13. Kirchner, M., Schmidt, J., Kindermann, G., Kulmer, V., Mitter, H., Prettenthaler,
F., … Schmid, E. (2015). Ecosystem services and economic development in
Austrian agricultural landscapes - The impact of policy and climate change
scenarios on trade-offs and synergies. Ecological Economics.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.11.005
14. Louhichi, K., Kanellopoulos, A., Janssen, S., Flichman, G., Blanco, M., Hengsdijk,
H., … Ittersum, M. Van. (2010). FSSIM, a bio-economic farm model for
simulating the response of EU farming systems to agricultural and environmental
policies. Agricultural Systems. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2010.06.006
15. Mokrech, M., Kebede, A. S., Nicholls, R. J., Wimmer, F., & Feyen, L. (2014). An
integrated approach for assessing flood impacts due to future climate and socio-
economic conditions and the scope of adaptation in Europe. Climatic Change.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1298-6
16. Munang, R., Thiaw, I., Alverson, K., Liu, J., & Han, Z. (2013). The role of
ecosystem services in climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2013.02.002
292
17. Nelson, E. J., Kareiva, P., Ruckelshaus, M., Arkema, K., Geller, G., Girvetz, E., …
Tallis, H. (2013). Climate change’s impact on key ecosystem services and the
human well-being they support in the US. Frontiers in Ecology and the
Environment. https://doi.org/10.1890/120312
18. Pacini, C., Wossink, A., Giesen, G., & Huirne, R. (2004). Ecological-economic
modelling to support multi-objective policy making: A farming systems approach
implemented for Tuscany. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2003.08.010
19. Pannell, D. J. (1997). Sensitivity analysis of normative economic models:
Theoretical framework and practical strategies. Agricultural Economics.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-5150(96)01217-0
20. Parker, P., Letcher, R., Jakeman, A., Beck, M. B., Harris, G., Argent, R. M., …
Bin, S. (2002). Progress in integrated assessment and modelling. Environmental
Modelling and Software. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1364-8152(01)00059-7
21. Parson, E. A. (1995). Integrated assessment and environmental policy making. In
pursuit of usefulness. Energy Policy. https://doi.org/10.1016/0301-
4215(95)90170-C
22. Reidsma, P., Wolf, J., Kanellopoulos, A., Schaap, B. F., Mandryk, M., Verhagen,
J., & Van Ittersum, M. K. (2015). Climate change impact and adaptation research
requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: A case study in the
Netherlands. Environmental Research Letters, 10(4).
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/045004
23. Ruben, R., Moll, H., & Kuyvenhoven, A. (1998). Integrating agricultural research
and policy analysis: Analytical framework and policy applications for bio-
economic modelling. Agricultural Systems. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0308-
521X(98)00034-1
24. Wimmer, F., Audsley, E., Malsy, M., Savin, C., Dunford, R., Harrison, P. A., …
Flörke, M. (2014). Modelling the effects of cross-sectoral water allocation schemes
in Europe. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1161-9
25. Zander, P., & Kächele, H. (1999). Modelling multiple objectives of land use for
sustainable development. Agricultural Systems. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0308-
521X(99)00017-7
293