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  <front>
    <journal-meta />
    <article-meta>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Α Multicriteria Satisfaction Analysis Approach in the Assessment of Sustainable Tourism Development in Mountainous Regions in Greece: The Case of Voras Ski Resort</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <aff id="aff0">
          <label>0</label>
          <institution>Department of Spatial Planning and Development, Faculty of Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki</institution>
          ,
          <addr-line>GR-54124</addr-line>
          ,
          <country country="GR">Greece</country>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <fpage>364</fpage>
      <lpage>376</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>A key measure for the formulation of a new policymaking and governance for sustainable tourism development at the local level is the exploration of current tourism conditions and views in terms of their environmental, social and economic characteristics. According to the new strategy set by the Hellenic Ministry of Environment, Energy and Climate Change, particular attention is placed on the relationship between the natural environment and tourism development following the Special Framework for Spatial Planning and Sustainable Development for Tourism and the poles for the intensive development of specific forms of tourism. By creating integrated tourism management development plans, the design of mountainous areas will highlight both the environmental protection and the improvement of special tourist resorts within the framework of sustainable spatial development. It is for these reasons that the present research has been initiated, exploring the attitudes and views of the visitors of the Ski Center of Kaimaktsalan with the aim of providing a Multicriteria Satisfaction Analysis-MUSA of the recreational value of the area, which is a pole of alternative tourism options for Northern Greece. The results indicate how Mount Voras can be sustainably managed through different scenarios of tourism intervention, following the European model and the strategies set by the European Commission on Climate Change.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>Resort</kwd>
        <kwd>Mountainous Tourism</kwd>
        <kwd>Ski Centers</kwd>
        <kwd>MUSA system</kwd>
        <kwd>Multivariate Statistics</kwd>
        <kwd>Count Data Models</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec-1">
      <title>1 Introduction</title>
      <p>
        Tourism can prove a key component with a social, economic and environmental
impact, also can, offer employment opportunities for the young people as well as
upgrade existing infrastructure and attract investment
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref4">(Apostolidis and Latinopoulos,
2015)</xref>
        . In addition, the recreational activities and recreational value of a region can
determine the quality of human life both at the level of visitors and the local
population
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref5">(Arabatzis and Grigoroudis, 2010)</xref>
        . In effect, the Greek Government
needs to set a collective and national goal of stability and development of tourism in
Greece along with political and institutional change at all levels
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">(Greek Ministry of
Environment Energy and Climate Change, 2013)</xref>
        . This shift is reflected in the
expanded tourist demand in Greece, especially during the summer months, leading to
viable alternative forms of tourism and the reconstruction of the winter tourist
product of the country.
      </p>
      <p>The purpose of this paper is to investigate the attitudes and opinions of visitors in
mountainous areas with the aim of presenting new spatial tourism interventions,
especially in recreational areas that bear a strong connection with the environment,
the culture, and the sustainable development agenda. The ultimate aim of the
research is the development of an integrated basis and a system of impact assessment
in the Greek portfolio of tourism, with dimensions of indicators and systems of
knowledge of tourist landscapes for decision making and selection of optimal
scenarios for the best sustainable management of such areas.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-2">
      <title>2 Statistical and Econometric Methodology</title>
      <p>
        Questionnaires completed by the visitors to the Ski Center of Kaimaktsalan-Voras
Mountain (Greece) were used during the winter period of 2015-2016 to conduct the
present research. The sample size (n=323 guests) is considered as representative, and
the use of results met the necessary statistical conditions. The research tool, a
questionnaire, was developed to be filled on site with the investigator conducting
personal interviews of the respondents-guests. The Haphazard Sampling method was
used and the statistical package IBM SPSS v.20. for the processing of the results and
the analysis of the data
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2 ref3">(Apostolidis 2017b, 2017a)</xref>
        .
      </p>
      <p>
        The Method of Factor Analysis in Principal Component Analysis was used to
reduce the large number of criteria set on the respondents and to form new
parameters. Also, the Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization was
used
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref13 ref14 ref17 ref6 ref7 ref8">(Arabatzis and Myronidis, 2011; Tsiantikoudis et al. 2013; Galatsidas et al.
2015a, 2015b; Nilashi et al. 2015; Radeljak, 2016)</xref>
        . Additionally, Hierarchical
Cluster Analysis was employed
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref1">(Andriotis et al. 2008)</xref>
        to create a typology
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref10 ref11 ref15 ref16 ref7 ref8">(Sharma,
1996; Rencher, 2002; Johnson and Wichern 2007; Grigoroudis et al. 2012;
Galatsidas et al. 2015a, 2015b)</xref>
        . The reliability of optimum scores, in the sense of
internal consistency, was tested and evaluated for the factors that emerged using the
Cronbach coefficient α
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref17">(Tsiantikoudis et al. 2013)</xref>
        . Reliability indicators are
generally considered to be satisfactory when higher or equal to 0.70. In some cases,
confidence indicators are also considered satisfactory or sufficient when they exceed
or equate to 0.60, especially when a questionnaire-tool criterion is implemented with
a population sample
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref12 ref17">(Meulman and Heiser, 2005; Tsiantikoudis et al. 2013)</xref>
        .
      </p>
      <p>
        The Poisson models are the most widespread models for economic and
environmental valuation techniques Therefore, the Poisson and Negative Binomial
Models were used to evaluate the study area
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref2 ref3">(Apostolidis, 2017a)</xref>
        .
      </p>
      <p>
        The research area selected was the Voras Mountain Range due to its
environmental significance. Τhe wider region is becoming a tourist resort, which
according to the Special Framework for Spatial Planning and Sustainability for
Tourism
        <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">(Greek Ministry of Environment, 2013)</xref>
        belongs to the category of Intensive
Development of Special Forms of Tourism. Specifically, the area identified for
analysis (valuation survey) is the Kaimaktsalan Ski Center (highest altitude ski center
in Greece-2500m).
4
      </p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-3">
      <title>Multivariate Statistical Analysis</title>
      <sec id="sec-3-1">
        <title>4.1 Development of Tourism Visits Typology in the Area</title>
        <p>The Factor Analysis provided significant results, indicating that the analysis is
crucial for research. The KMO index is very high 0.907 (sig. = 0), which means that
the exploratory work is almost excellent. Of the 31 eigenvalues exported, only six are
larger than the unit, and they account for 61.875% of the variance. The results are
presented in the scree plot in which there is an absolute alignment of the curve with
the horizontal x-axis (figure 1). With the final separation and creation of the new
factors after the rectangular rotation, the fitting of the variables within the
recreational activities with the extraction of natural resource elements was as
follows: 1) Fly Fox-Lake Passage, Kayak, Rafting, Boating-Eco-touring, Horseback
Riding, Mountain Biking, Paragliding, Cycling and Archery, are the first factor
(activities related to water resources in the countryside, the flora and fauna). 2)
Aviation-Air sports, Climbing, Controlled Fishing, Professional Winter Sports,
Camping, Guided tour of the Prophet Elijah's Church, Mountaineering and Jogging
are the second factor (activities related to the atmosphere and climatic conditions). 3)
Nature walks, Forest exploration, Mountain Trekking, Trekking, Hiking, and Picnic
are the third factor (recreational activities related to forest resources). 4) Family
walks, adventure games in nature, landscape observation and cultural events
contribute to the fourth factor (activities related to cultural resources). 5) Motocross,
Racing Motorcycle, and 4x4 Routes are the fifth factor (activities related to
grassland, land use and ground cover). 6) Spa therapy and Massage Spa are the sixth
factor (recreational activities related to the Therapeutic Natural Resource). The most
significant load was presented between the second and fourth factors with an 0.595
index.
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.</p>
        <p>Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization.</p>
        <p>For the reliability of the results, Cronbach's alpha indices were estimated
(Ca1=0.906; Ca2=0.852; Ca3=0.754; Ca4=0.704; Ca5=0.742; Ca6=0.847). The
results show that the highest index is presented in the first dimension with 0.906,
which implies that the results are reliable and researchable with an optimistic
application. The lowest index was presented in the fourth component with 0.704,
which is statistically acceptable as it is higher than the base threshold of 0.6. The first
factor, which presents a positive combination of recreational tourism activities in the
region, can have economic and social implications for the development of the wider
region with social, economic and environmental impact.</p>
        <p>The above diagram shows the combination of factors within the clusters that were
created in which the final spatial planning includes: a) Cluster1 (3rd factor
outperforms) = Green Tourists with a motivation for the mountain and the forest
(23.5%), b) Cluster2 (the 6th factor is the most important) = Tourists looking for spa
tourism and health reasons (46.1%), c) Cluster3 (5th factor is superior)=Alternative
adventure tourists (30.3%).</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-2">
        <title>Cluster1</title>
        <p>3rd Factor outperforms:
Green Tourists with a
motivation for the
mountain and the forest
(23.5%)</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-3">
        <title>Cluster2</title>
        <sec id="sec-3-3-1">
          <title>6th Factor is the most</title>
          <p>important: Tourists
looking for Spa Tourism
and health reasons
(46.1%)</p>
        </sec>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-4">
        <title>Cluster3</title>
        <sec id="sec-3-4-1">
          <title>5th Factor is superior: Alternative adventure tourists (30.3%)</title>
        </sec>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec-3-5">
        <title>4.2 Factor Analysis-(PCA) and Development of a Typology for Recreation options at the Ski Center</title>
        <p>The results from the questionnaires which were collected during the sampling
period are presented below through the application of the factorial analysis in the
principal components with the primary purpose of designing the alternative forms of
tourism developed in the Ski Center. The KMO and Bartlett's Test show the
adequacy of sampling, and reveal that in this research the analysis is appropriate, and
there is statistical significance and correlation between the variables with KMO =
0.788 (df = 66, sig = 0 and Approx. = 764,621) being statistically significant at a
baseline level of statistical significance sig = 0.05. From the correlations that have
arisen between the recreational activities, the correlation between the Variables
Skiing and Cross-county Skiing is highlighted, which underlines the correlation
between two extreme and risky recreational activities. The eigenvalues of the first
three factors that meet the statistical criteria and are higher than the unit explain the
52.372% of the fluctuation. Therefore, the three components were chosen for the
course and continuity of the new dimensions. The Communalities indices of the
components were exported for each variable highlight that some variables are more
related to a factor such as Skiing with 0.687 while others are less related such as
Snowboarding with 0.349.</p>
        <p>The final formation of new dimensions of recreational activities is presented in the
Rotated Component Matrix after rotation. The first factor (Snow Cat, Snowboard,
Ski Jumping, Freestyle Ski, Mountaineering Ski and Cross-Country Ski) is strongly
linked to the values: 0.529-0.576-0.794-0.596-0.721-0.764. The second factor
(Skiing courses, playing games in the snow -Snowballing, Bobsleigh and Rides on
the lift) is strongly linked to the values: 0.626-0.754-0.502-0.639. Finally, the third
factor (Meeting other skiers and ski) is strongly linked to the values: 0.739 and
0.825. In turn, according to the present configuration and formation of factors, the
new dimensions are identified as follows: a) Extreme leisure activities (high-risk
sports which are related to the visitor's considerable experience with snow and
excitement, adrenaline, adventure, and action) (b) Low-risk recreational activities
(related to and associated with the visitor’s acquaintance and familiarity with snow);
(c) Leisure activities of developing relationships and expanding-shaping personality
through the sport (related with the visitor’s friendly attitude and activity in specific
areas). Finally, the highest correlation between the newly created dimensions occurs
between the first and the second factor with an index of 0.317, which is characterized
by a low correlation, so there is no great connection between the two dimensions.</p>
        <p>For the reliability of the results, Cronbach's Alpha indices were exported. The
results show that the highest index is presented in the first dimension with 0.727,
which implies that the results are reliable and interpretable with the optimism of
application. The lowest index was presented in the third component with 0.561
which is not statistically acceptable as it is less than the base threshold of 0.6. The
first factor, which presents a positive combination of recreational tourism activities in
the region, can have economic and social implications for the development of the
wider region with social, economic and environmental impact. Applying the
Hierarchical Cluster Analysis shows that the sample of the present survey can be
grouped into two groups or clusters of visitors based on the chances of engaging in
recreational activities during their visit to the Pozar Thermal Baths combined with
their socio-economic characteristics (gender, age, marital status, income). These
groups are Cluster1 (31%) and Cluster2 (63.8%). The next table shows the analysis
of the results using the method of Ward. The scatter plot shows the distribution of
visitors based on the factors created within the clustered space. The results of the
analysis show that the first cluster the first dimension (High Adrenaline Recreation
Activities) outweighs, while in the second cluster the third dimension (Relationship
Development Activities).</p>
        <p>This section presents the basic econometric models used to calculate the
Consumer Surplus and the Recreational Value. We note that all criteria values in the
Good Adaptation Test are statistically significant in degrees of freedom 283, and the
Likelihood Ratio Chi-Square is statistically significant, too. Furthermore, data from
the Poisson model shows significant sampling adequacy and suitability for the model
under consideration. From the economic results of the Poisson Log Function model it
can be drawn that the fixed term is not statistically significant at significance level
α=0.05. The remaining variables, which are of less than 0.05 significance, are
significant with the most important one the climatic conditions (sig=0). That is, the
variation in temperature affects the skiing conditions at the ski resort but also the
potential future travel prospects. Other important aspects are familiarization with the
area, the possibilities for recreational activities as well as the short travel distance
from the place of residence to the recreation area.</p>
        <p>Parameter
(Intercept)
SnowBoard
Sightseeing Tour
Becoming familiar with the area
Ski
Relaxation-vacation-recreation
Potential for recreation activities
Ski Facilities
Climatic Conditions
Great Slopes
Highest altitude in Greece
Short distance from your place of
residence
The beauty of the countryside – the
landscape environment
Organized and adequate
accommodation facilities
(accommodation, food, entertainment)
Combination with other travel
destinations in the region (e.g. Pozar,
Agios Athanasios, etc)
FACTOR Dimension1
FACTOR Dimension2
FACTOR Dimension3
ΤOTAL COST
Level of Education
Annual net personal income
Age
Gender</p>
        <p>B</p>
        <p>df
0.2160
0.1193
0.1155
0.1396
0.1017
0.0882
0.1183
0.1130
0.0881
0.1183
0.0890
0.0801
0.0891</p>
        <p>
          The Negative Binomial model which is being developed, presents less statistical
significance than the previous one, but it is worth noting that the criterion of climatic
conditions continues to play an important role. It is worth mentioning that with the
development of this econometric model, fewer statistically significant variables are
presented compared to the original Poisson model. Additionally, from the
implementation of the models, the consumer surplus was estimated at 1,000€ while
the tourist value of the area to 15,067,000€ and the total value of the special forms
of the tourism pole was calculated at 143,543,000€, for the first time in Greece,
according to the strategy of the
          <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref9">(Greek Ministry of Environment Energy and Climate
Change, 2013)</xref>
          . These values are of major significance for planning the tourism
development of a region since they assess the existing demand for recreation and the
aesthetic value of the landscape environment in the study area. Within this
framework, it is important to take into account all the values which are associated
with the areas under consideration as well as the possible change in these values
under different circumstances (e.g., demand conditions, environmental conditions,
infrastructure, climate, among others).
6
        </p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec-4">
      <title>Conclusions</title>
      <p>The present research, presents a new spatial tourist package for the wider region
of the Ski Center of Kaimaktsalan, focusing on the basic and most widespread leisure
activities that are being developed in centers of alternative forms of tourism by
exploring the attitudes and opinions of the visitors in the area. Using MUSA
methodology for recreation activities in this research, the critical variables and
respectively the forms of development of alternative tourism were selected. In turn,
there is a great need for socio-economic assessment in similar areas and recreation
centers at the National Level, to introduce green investment and sustainable
development of the protected areas, as well as the design of the sustainable regional
development. Alternative tourism development activities have a high impact on the
attitudes of visitors to the area, create new tourism behaviors and relationships of
interdependence and interaction between man and the natural environment, with
social, environmental and economic impact.</p>
      <sec id="sec-4-1">
        <title>Acknowledgements.</title>
        <p>Fundings:
-General Secretariat for Research and Technology (GSRT)
-Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (HFRI)
of the Greek Ministry of Education Research and Religious Affairs.
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki-A.U.TH Research Committee,
National Project/95157/AUTh/GREECE.</p>
        <p>Title: The role of economic assessment of environmental resources in
planning sustainable tourism development.
Communication Technologies in Agriculture, Food and Environment (HAICTA
2017), Chania, Greece, 21-24 September, 2017, 580–93. Chania, Greece.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
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